Vamist se transforma in comunitatea traderilor retail. Aceasta versiune a forumului va fi in continuare accesibila pentru oricine, dar numai in format read only.
Noua adresa este vamist.ro. Te asteptam acolo la discutii generale despre trading.
Cum eu nu vreau să mă bazez pe noroc (nu ca mi-ar strica, dar nu vreau să ştiu ce se poate întâmpla dacă mă părăseşte), mi-am concentrat eforturile pe elaborarea unei strategii care să minimizeze riscurile.
Încă mai lucrez la ea.
Una din tendinţele despre care am citit că duc cel mai repede la eşec în forex este aceea de a dori să ajungi "from zero to hero", de a încerca sa faci câţi mai mulţi bani, câţi mai mulţi pipsi şi cât mai repede.
Targetul meu este mai modest: mi-am propus să fac 50 de pipsi zilnic. La loturile mele, de 2% din suma pe care o am în cont la începutul zilei, asta înseamnă 1% pe zi din capitalul zilei precedente.
Cei 50 de pipsi zilnici sunt un target modest doar în aparenţă: 20 zile * 50 pips/zi = 1000 de pipsi lunar, ceea ce ar fi un rezultat mai mult decât îmbucurător.
Partea frumoasă vine de-abia acum: ţinând cont de modul în care îmi stabilesc loturile şi targetul, cei 50 de pipsi sunt meniţi să îmi aducă 1% din capitalul zilei precedente.
Dacă respect planul, orice sumă aş investi va creşte de cca 10 ori într-un an, datorită neînsemnatului procent de 1%.
Până acum, funcţionează.
Uneori am nevoie de un singur ordin cu target +50, alte ori pun mai multe ordine cu target între +4 şi +15, important este ca, până la sfârşitul zile să ating acel 1%.
După pierderea din vinerea neagră, am respectat regula de a nu tranzacţiona sub impulsul sentimentelor negative şi am făcut aproximativ o săptămână pauză ... de studiu.
Apoi am început din nou tranzacţiile, dar de data aceasta cu un plan şi un target deja stabilit. Până acum, mi-am atins targetul în fiecare zi, iar, uneori, l-am şi depăşit.
Nu mi-a plăcut când am pierdut, dar trebuie să recunosc că mi-a prins bine.
E adevărat că încă nu am auzit pe nimeni să spună ca a scos banii de la Marketiva, dar mi se pare firesc, dacă ţinem cont că sunt noi în domeniu. Şi nici nu am auzit pe nimeni care să spună că nu a putut să îi retragă.
În plus, încă nu am investit nici un $ în forex, deocamdată îi înmulţesc pe cei 5 primiţi la înscriere. Acum am 9,64.
Indiferent dacă mai bag nişte bani sau nu, indiferent dacă la sfârşitul anului aş constata că nu pot să îi retrag, dacă reuşesc să găsesc strategia cu care să îmi ating acel de target zilnic, în condiţii de siguranţă, tot aş fi în câştig.
Nu e puţin lucru să fii un bun trader.
Să fiu întrebată:
- Cu ce te ocupi?
- Cu tranzacţii forex, să răspund eu. Sunt trader. Unul bun.
- Cât de bun?
- Atât de bun, încât orice sumă mi-ai da pentru investiţii, la sfârşitul anului îţi voi returna de 5 ori suma iniţială. (Restul - partea mea, pentru un an de muncă).
Şi să nu fie doar laudă...
Să capăt eu cunoştinţele necesare şi abilitatea de a înmulţi de 10 ori într-un an orice sumă de la care aş porni... merită riscul de a munci un an degeaba!
lazypawn: ieri şi azi au fost mişcări bune
fatta_m0rgana: da, au fost niste miscari spectaculoase
fatta_m0rgana: ieri am facut +176
lazypawn: adevărul e că deşi femeile sunt o minoritate infimă în meseria asta, mai multe cărţi inclusiv scrise de bărbaţi, susţin că sunt mai bune!
datorită profilului psihologic mai potrivit
fatta_m0rgana : sunt pareri impartite
lazypawn: bărbaţii sunt mai orgolioşi, ei se "bat" cu piaţa, refuză să admită eroarea
fatta_m0rgana: cineva mi-a spus ieri "cortexul feminin nu se potriveste cu forexul"
lazypawn: Femeile sunt mai maleabile, mai intuitive
lazypawn: Pur teoretic, dacă vorbeşti de indicatori şi programare etc. aşa e dar practic, psihologic, cred că e invers
Psihologia este 50% din succes aici, unii spun că chiar mai mult
fatta_m0rgana : da, am citit
lazypawn: Degeaba sunt eu în stare să bag 30 de formule matematice şi să citez 10 articole pe teme de trading dacă nu sunt în stare să accept un stop loss
fatta_m0rgana: cred ca toti trec prin refuzul stop lossului
lazypawn: nu vorbesc de mine, personal
eu, în sensul de bărbat
fatta_m0rgana: chiar este cineva pe Marketiva
care a facut praf doua conturi de 2000$
acum a elaborat o strategie cu loturi mici si fara sl
iar target +4
mie mi se pare pur si simplu dezastruos
pentru ca poti ajunge la - cateva sute de puncte
lazypawn: E vina ta, ai popularizat tehnica pe forumul tău o perioadă de timp
fatta_m0rgana: nu, nu am popularizat-o
lazypawn: mai bine zis ai acceptat-o, a fost scrisă de altul
fatta_m0rgana: am si scris ca e sinucigasa
dar am testat-o
lazypawn: habar nu ai câţi au încercat-o, sub diferite variante
lazypawn: în engleză le spune variante de grid trading, sau hedge
lazypawn: te induce în eroare prin faptul că mereu închizi pe câştig poziţiile şi nu realizezi că cele pe minus se tot cumulează, la un moment dat de fac praf
fatta_m0rgana: te induce in eroare de cateva ori
fatta_m0rgana: dar trebuie sa fii orb sa nu vezi ca pozitiile care sunt pe -
fatta_m0rgana: sunt pur si simplu de speriat
fatta_m0rgana: uneori o astfel de pozitie poate sa te lasa fara ce ai acumulat in cateva luni de tranzactii
chiar daca au fost toate pe +
si daca ai mai multe, atunci mai bine te duci la casino
lazypawn: Eu am făcut o simulare matematică, am şi vrut să o public pe un forum odată, dar am renunţat
lazypawn :Tehnica ar functiona doar dacă piaţa se mişcă într-un range bine definit, pe care nu îl sparge niciodată
lazypawn: de ex. euro între 1.22 şi 1.16 şi nimic altceva
fatta_m0rgana: tipul asta de care vorbesc, are o pozitie la -600
lazypawn: niciodată peste sau sub extreme
fatta_m0rgana: eu nu il inteleg,
fatta_m0rgana: nici macar nu a deschis o alta pozitie in sens contrar, fara sl si fara st
fatta_m0rgana: pentru protectie
lazypawn: păi atunci ce naiba vrea?
lazypawn: aşteaptă o minune?
fatta_m0rgana: se bazeaza pe faptul ca lotul este foarte mic
fatta_m0rgana: sub 2%
lazypawn: da, şi? ce doreşte de la poziţia aia?
lazypawn: poate că nu mai prinde nivelul ăla 3 ani de-acuma încolo
fatta_m0rgana: asteapta sa o inchida pe +
lazypawn: e naivitate
e posibil să se întoarcă, pur întâmplător, la nivelele lui
dar poate la fel de bine să mai cadă 600
practic el confundă forexul cu ruleta
fatta_m0rgana: Marketiva a eliminat overnight interestul
dar daca ar fi avut pozitia asta la alt broker
il manca de viu
lazypawn: Depinde de poziţie, poţi să şi primeşti interest de ex. la GFT unde am cont
lazypawn: eu am ţinut un usdjpy cumpărat luni de zile
fatta_m0rgana: adica daca tii o pozitie deschisa mai mult timp,
lazypawn: am primit şi dobândă, şi a şi urcat preţul mereu
fatta_m0rgana : primesti o dobanda?
fatta_m0rgana: bun asa
fatta_m0rgana: vreau si eu linkul
lazypawn: dacă eşti cumpărat valuta cu rată mai mare a dobânzii, primeşti
unii fac chestia asta în felul următor
cumpără să zicem gbpjpy la 23:45 noaptea şi vând peste 20 de minute doar cât să ia dobânda
desigur, trebuie să acopere spreadul deci aşteaptă ca perechea să urce câţiva pipşi
astea se numesc CARRY TRADES
ai nevoie de o valută care are dobândă mare, gen aud, nzd, gbp şi una cu dobândă mică gen jpy sau chf
fatta_m0rgana: sau sa coboare, daca au intrat short?
lazypawn: Tu trebuie să cumperi valuta cu dobândă mare
fatta_m0rgana: numai in crestere?
lazypawn: investitorii mari fac chestia asta, şi ţin luni sau ani de zile
lazypawn: lichidează la preţul la care au intrat, dar între timp au luat un purcoi de dobândă
lazypawn: Brokerul meu este http://www.gftforex.com/
fatta_m0rgana: revenind la ordinul ala cu -600
fatta_m0rgana: daca ordinul ala cu -600 era la Oanda, sa zicem
fatta_m0rgana: il rupea
lazypawn: depinde ce cont are, şi cu cât a intrat
lazypawn: 600 de pipşi poate fi enorm ca bani, sau poate fi puţintel
fatta_m0rgana: da, dar nu am cazut de acord ca judecam doar in procente?
fatta_m0rgana: si in pipsi?
lazypawn: tocmai, de unde să ştiu eu ce procent este
fatta_m0rgana: pai daca lotul este de 2%
fatta_m0rgana: -600 inseamna 12%
lazypawn: ce anume e 2%
fatta_m0rgana : 2$ din capitalul lui
fatta_m0rgana : asa face loturile
fatta_m0rgana : vorbeam doar teoretic, pentru ca daca vorbim de o pierdere de cativa dolari
fatta_m0rgana: nu prea inseamna mare lucru
fatta_m0rgana: desi cativa dolari ii faci greu, cand pornesti de la cei 5$ ai lor
lazypawn: Bun, deci cei 600 de pipşi la el pierd 12% din cont?
lazypawn: şi nu are stop loss
fatta_m0rgana: mie mi se pare mult
fatta_m0rgana : nu
fatta_m0rgana: si inca nu a inchis ordinul
lazypawn: înseamnă că el nu a predefinit un risc
lazypawn: nici nu putem spune cât a riscat, fără un SL
fatta_m0rgana: si daca era sa plateasca si overnight interest
fatta_m0rgana : atunci ar fi fost mult mai mult decat 12%
lazypawn: dacă ajunge pe -1200 pipşi, ar fi la +24%
lazypawn: -24% adică
lazypawn: no stop loss egal risc infinit
fatta_m0rgana : cam asa ceva
fatta_m0rgana: dar sl trebuie sa fie bine gandita
lazypawn : În principiu trebuie să fie o corelaţie cu targetul
asta e tot
fatta_m0rgana: deci pentru un trading care se intinde pe mai multe zilecum corelezi?
de exemplu pe perechea gpb/jpy sunt miscari importante si targetul de 150 nu e ceva neobisnuit
pentru un astfel de target, cum pui sl?
lazypawn : trebuie să ai o strategie precisă şi să faci un back test
lazypawn : Strategie precisă înseamnă moment clar de intrare, SL clar, target clarasta poţi determina numai prin teste, dacă ai răbdare îţi explic
fatta_m0rgana: da, am rabdare
lazypawn: Eşti sigură?
lazypawn : ţine vreo 20 de minute
fatta_m0rgana: altfel lasam totul balta cu forexul dupa prima pierdere mai importanta
lazypawn : Bine, atunci să-ţi descriu paşii
lazypawn : Primul pas este să-ţi defineşti clar criteriile
lazypawn : De exemplu intru când cutare moving averages se intersectează
lazypawn : sau indicatorul X face nu ştiu ce exact criteriul care defineşte intrarea, deschiderea poziţiei trebuie să fie unul tehnic, care poate fi verificat retro, pe chart să vezi cum ar fi mers dacă îl aplicai în trecut
Al doilea pas, trebuie să defineşti un target T şi un SL
acestea se pot optimiza ulterior dar pentru a testa, nu poţi să iei decât o valoare la un test
fatta_m0rgana : despre sl am invatat ca, insumate, nu tb sa depaseasca 2% din capital
lazypawn: asta nu are importanţă direct pentru că TU NU STABILEŞTI SL ÎN CI INVERS, STABILEŞTI CU CÂT SĂ INTRI ÎN FUNCŢIE DE UNDE TREBUIE SĂ PUI SL FUNCŢIE DE CAPITAL deci, stop lossul este ceva predefinit, fie o valoare fixă în pipşi, fie o linie pe grafic şi în funcţie de el poţi vedea cu cât te arunci, cu ce sumă
E clară ideea asta?
fatta_m0rgana (11/29/2005 4:39:05 PM): da, asta da
lazypawn : Bun
Să revenim. Să presupunem că vrem să testăm următoarele valori: T 100, SL 50
Aceste valori le alegi tu, iniţial ochiometric, după cum ţi se pare ţie că ar merge
ulterior le poţi ajusta, dar trebuie pornit cumva
să presupunem că sistemul lucrează pe grafice de 4hr
deschizi MT4, perechea respectivă, grafic de 4hr
şi cu PageUp dai înapoi în timp măcar un an chiar mai mult ar fi indicat ex. te duci la ianuarie 2004 să zicem Din acest moment vei apăsa doar o tastă, şi anume F12
Această tastă permite avansarea graficului cu o bară (o lumânare)
step by step
fatta_m0rgana adica cu cate 4 ore
lazypawn (11/29/2005 4:42:25 PM): exact
Tu te uiţi numai şi numai la bara din extrema dreaptă
exact cum ai face în timp real
mimezi tradingul real
La un moment dat vezi semnalul de intrare
indicatorul dă semnalul tău ex. intersectarea a două moving average
asta înseamnă că acolo ai deschide tu poziţia
Notezi preţul la bara aia
CLOSE PRICE presupunând că a fost un buy
apeşi pe F12 evident şi încă un F12 dacă e nevoie până când e atins fie T fie SL
preţul la care se termină bara pe un caiet undeva şi notezi nivelul de T, care ar fi close price plus 100 şi nivelul de stop loss, care ar fi close price minus 50
atunci notezi pe caiet Trade1 win +100 sau Trade1 loss -50
şi mergi mai departe, la un nou semnal
faci exact la fel
fatta_m0rgana: si repet acelasi lucru pe toata perioada cat am dat inapoi
lazypawn: Nu neapărat pe toată, DAR să fie minimum 50 de traduri!!
pentru a avea semnificaţie statistică altfel poate fi biased, adică întâmplător bun sau rău
asta este partea cea mai plictisitoare e migăloasă, îţi ia câteva ore, dar e necesară
În fine, să zicem că ai adunat cele 50 de exemple successive
exemplu de rezultat
20 winners, 30 losers
în cazul nostru fiecare winner e de 100, fiecare loser e de 50
pasul următor pe care te invit să îl facem împreună acum, de probă
te rog apasă pe http://hquotes.com/t.../simulator.html
spune-mi când s-a încărcat
lazypawn : acolo sus în dreapta vezi o primă rubrică numită WinLoss
fatta_m0rgana : da
lazypawn: asta este de fapt average winner/average loser in pips
adică la noi 100 per 50, adică 2
la unele strategii fiecare winner are valoare diferită de ex.
unii nu au un target fix, de 100 ies când indicatorul x spune ceva
şi asta poate fi la plus 10 pipşi sau plus 40 de aceea vorbim de AVERAGE winner
trebuie să aduni toate winner-urile, şi să le imparţi la nr. lor simplă medie aritmetică
În cazul nostru e foarte simplu, toate sunt de câte 100
deci media va fi tot 100
deci în prima rubrică trecem valoarea 2
te rog să faci acest lucru
la win/loss scrii 2
lazypawn (11/29/2005 4:53:17 PM): A doua rubrică sub ea
aici este procentajul de winners din totalul de traduri
fatta_m0rgana : asta inseamna 20/30
lazypawn : nu
procentajul din total
20 din 50 sau echivalent 40 din 100
adică ar fi 0.4
înţelegi de ce?
fatta_m0rgana : da, sunt 40 la suta castigatoare
pune punct nu virgulă, aşa folosesc anglosaxonii
fatta_m0rgana : asa am lasat, punct doar am modificat cifra
lazypawn: apoi lines Qty, lasă 1
fatta_m0rgana: ea ce insemana?
lazypawn : câte grafice să tragă
fiecare linie de grafic arată cum ar evolua contul tău în timp cu mai multă sau mai puţină şansă
vorbim de probabilităţi
acum apasă pe generate, butonul de mai jos şi urmăreşte cum arată curba aia
Poţi să apeşi de câte ori vrei
fatta_m0rgana: curba aia arata cum creste capitalul?
observi că tendinţa e în sus, chiar clar
deci un asemenea sistem urmat orbeşte este CÂŞTIGĂTOR
fatta_m0rgana: da, si e foarte incurajator
să observi că are şi perioade de drawdown
fatta_m0rgana: am observat
lazypawn: poate avea pierderi succesive dacă tot dai pe generate vei vedea şi scenarii mai puţin plăcute TEMPORAR dar pe termen lung iese pe plus evident
Acum hai să facem o mică schimbare
să presupunem că am găsit de fapt doar 10 winners din 50 cu acest sistem
atunci în loc de 0.4 am avea 0.2 la winprob
fatta_m0rgana: da, exact
lazypawn: ia vezi cum arată
fatta_m0rgana: de loc bine
lazypawn: scrie pe el faliment
lazypawn (11/29/2005 5:00:59 PM): hai să zicem că schimbăm parametrii
fatta_m0rgana (11/29/2005 5:01:08 PM): la targeturi si sl?
lazypawn (11/29/2005 5:01:09 PM): punem T 100 şi SL tot 100
lazypawn (11/29/2005 5:01:12 PM): da
lazypawn (11/29/2005 5:01:26 PM): dacă ai schimbat T şi SL, trebuie să reiei toată culegerea migăloasă de date pentru că vor fi alte rezultate de ex. unele care au atins SL de 50, acum nu-l vor mai atinge pe cel de 100, şi devin winners
fatta_m0rgana: atunci sus avem 1
lazypawn: Sus va fi 1, într-adevăr şi să zicem că găsim 35 winners cu aceste valori de SL şi T
fatta_m0rgana: adica 70%
lazypawn (11/29/2005 5:02:36 PM): da, 0.7
şi generate again
vezi cum iese
fatta_m0rgana: asta arata mai bine
mult mai bine
Acesta este modul ştiinţific în care se procedează
Deci nu poate nimeni să ştie de la început care e valoarea optimă
fatta_m0rgana (11/29/2005 5:03:17 PM):
fatta_m0rgana: bun, am pus linkul la favorite si acum ramane sa fac testele
lazypawn: testezi diferite perechi de valori ca mai sus până găseşti corelaţia optimă T SL
Atenţie, nu sunt suficiente 20 de traduri, să fie minimum 50 altfel nu are valoare, poate fi rod al unei serii norocoase sau ghinioniste
fatta_m0rgana (11/29/2005 5:06:07 PM): da, am retinut
Multumesc pentru rabdare
mai ai rabdare sa spui si ceva despre roboti?
Lazypawn: Doar o observaţie aici
Ai realizat că graficul urcă cu cât valorile din cele 2 câmpuri sunt mai mari
este evident, intuitiv
lazypawn: Unii nu realizează asta când concep sisteme
De exemplu mulţi spun că raportul T SL trebuie să fie pozitiv
adică T mai mare ca SL
deci nu poţi avea T de 50 şi SL de 100 să zicem
NU este adevărat
poţi avea şi T de 5 şi SL de 300 dacă procentajul de winners este uriaş
fatta_m0rgana: stiu asta
am facut astfel de tranzactii dar nu vreau sa mai tranzactionez la intamplare
lazypawn (11/29/2005 5:07:54 PM): ai avea o cifră proastă în rubrica 1, dar foarte bună la 2
Există unele sisteme denumite trend following
care urmăresc un trend
Aceste sisteme de exemplu au un număr foarte mic de winners
rubrica 2 proastă
fatta_m0rgana: dar target mare?
au un T mult mai mare decât SL
cu alea pierzi câţiva pipşi zi de zi
dar când intră faci sute
ei bine, aceste sisteme de tip trend following sunt considerate cele mai bune pe termen lung, dovedit
însă aproape nimeni nu le utilizează
pentru că psihologic e greu să tot pierzi
poţi să ai şi 10 pierderi la rând
dar când vine câştigul face mult mai mult
În shimb începătorii sunt foarte foarte tentaţi de sistemele cu rubrica 2 mare
si cu mai multe ordine inchise des multe multe poziţii închise pe win
fatta_m0rgana : pe Marketiva este evidenta tendinta asta
lazypawn : exact
fatta_m0rgana: eu am avut la inceput o strategie de genul target mare si sl si mai mare
numai ca am gresit punand prea multe ordine si si aici am avut nevoie de rabdare
dar rezultatele au fost mai bune decat cele cu target mai mic
tot ce ai câştigat şi mai mult
eu am avut la inceput sl la -300
pe usd/cad si usd/chf
lazypawn : această strategie are din păcate nişte SL foarte mari şi mătură totul
e şi mult mai random, întâmplătoare
hai să facem doar o probă să vezi
lazypawn : pune la winloss 0.1
lazypawn: average winner cam de 10 ori mai mic decât average loser
lazypawn: ex. SL la 300, dar iei profit la 30, mulţi fac aşa ceva
lazypawn: şi 9 din 10 câştigă, deci rubrica 2 punem 0.9
deci 0.1 rubrica 1 şi 0.9 rubrica 2, vezi ce iese
dă de multe ori pe generate
vei vedea că este aproape random
lazypawn: poate fi şi pierdere mare, uneori şi câştig
fatta_m0rgana: destul de greu pentru nervi
lazypawn : de obicei se termină cu dezastru
ajunge la margin call
De-asta pică sistemele gen grid-hedge
fatta_m0rgana: cred ca o sa dau linkul asta si tipului despre care vorbeam
lazypawn : Dacă i-l dai să-i şi explici cum se foloseşte, ce înseamnă
si poate i-ar fi de folos daca as pune explicatiile pe forum
dar asta numai daca esti de acord
lazypawn: sigur că sunt, doar nu e pagina mea
fatta_m0rgana : nu, dar sunt explicatiile tale si timpul tau tu hotarasti cui le dai
lazypawn: Este metoda pe care o folosesc eu pentru a verifica strategiile
după ce culeg datele, merg la pagina asta şi văd cam cum ar arăta bănuţii mei pana una alta, eu m-am tinut de target si am facut cei 50 de pipsi zilnici
lazypawn: Foarte bine. Şi sistemul meu ar fi făcut o groază de pipşi ieri şi azi
fatta_m0rgana: dar vreau sa fiu sigura ca am eliminat factorul intamplare
lazypawn: Îţi recomand CĂLDUROS să-l verifici cum am spus
ca să elimini factorul întâmplare
fatta_m0rgana: da, nici nu ma gandesc sa il las neverificat
lazypawn: să ai siguranţă şi să fii detaşată dacă ştii că e bun, că a dat curba aia în sus, nu te mai temi de nici un trade în parte
loveşte SL, asta e, nici o problemă
e parte din sistem
vor veni şi cele cu plus
Odată ce ai verificat, şi ai o expectanţă pozitivă, trebuie să-l urmezi ORBEŞTE
nu mai modifici
fatta_m0rgana: nu mai modific
ce merge, nu tb reparat
dollars in 40 trades during a three month period. I should mention
first that he did start with $100,000. I could have called this my
Jerry Maguire moment. You know the movie with Tom Cruise where he
decides to write a mission statement.
The reason being is that the subject of this little piece (I will
call him Fred to protect his identity as he is a real person) called
me out of the blue last week and it brought back so many fond
memories of my early days in trading.
Before I start with this story I have to give you some background so
that you can really appreciate the whole episode.
It all happened in the 90's. I don't even think the Euro Dollar had
been introduced for trading at the time.
Anyway, it was fairly early in my trading career and a few years
earlier I had taken a course on Forex trading in London. You know,
one of those "I'm a guru and this is the Holy Grail courses".
I distinctly remember that the course cost me L8,500, which was a
lot of money in those days, hell, its still a lot of money for a
At the time, I remember coming out from the course thinking that I
had cracked it. I was already planning on the car I was going to buy
and what sort of massive house I was going to live in.
The course finished on a Friday and by Tuesday I was set up with a
broker and ready to make my fortune.
By the following Tuesday I had blown $10,000. I couldn't believe it.
I had diligently applied everything I had learned and still lost
money. I was thoroughly depressed. At the time I knew very little
about money management but I knew enough to know that I wasn't going
to make any money trading the way I had been.
I spent the next six months reading everything I could about the
Forex market. I became totally obsessed with the thing. I would
sometimes work 18 hours straight, studying and testing different
During all of this I kept in touch with the guy that originally
taught me the course (Lets call him Peter as he is still in business
as far as I know). I realized months later that the course was
useless but by this time I had got to know Peter and he was a very
likeable guy, it was hard not to like him even though I knew more
than he did six months after I took the course.
At the time, I lived in a beautiful village in the heart of
Perthshire called Blairgowrie. Just as a side note here. If you ever
go to Scotland, make a point of heading up to Perthshire. Everyone
goes to Edinburgh or Glasgow but trust me, the farther North you go
in Scotland the more beautiful it gets and the people are much
So, picture the scene. I had eventually got my act together. I was
making money trading, not a lot but enough to cover my living
expenses and it was in the heady days before I had children so there
always seemed to be time for things.
I would get up at around 5 am, make myself a big cup of black
coffee, put on some Beethoven or Enya and settle in for the morning.
My favorite technique was to try to catch a move on the London
opening and be finished by midday.
It's funny you know but even I can see how the action in the market
has change over the years. The 5 minute charts just seemed easier to
trade in those days.
This left me time for my second passion of going to the movies. Both
my wife and I used to be devoted moviegoers. I mean, we would watch
every single new release and even the arty foreign ones too.
Nowadays, with kids, all I get to watch is Toy Story, The Lion King
Or Shrek over and over again.
Back to the story. About a week before this story starts I was
speaking with Peter and asked him if he knew where I could get a
copy of a manuscript by WD Gann that I was after.
Anyway, about a week later Peter gives me a call and tells me that
he has this guy called Fred who has just taken the course and is
struggling a bit. He asks me if I would spend the day with him and
just try to help him.
I knew of course that the reason he wanted me to help him was
because he didn't want the guy to ask for a refund but whatever the
reason was, I wasn't interested. I was in my own little groove and
life was good. I was doing OK in the markets, getting to see all the
movies I could watch, in short I was happy.
This is where he tempted me with something he knew I would be
interested in. Somehow he had managed to get his hands on the
manuscript I was after. He wanted to make a deal. He would FedEx it
down to me the same day if I would spend some time with Fred. He got
me with the one thing he knew I would bite at.
Arrangements were made that I would collect Fred from Edinburgh
airport on Monday morning.
About two days before I was due to collect Fred, he calls me. "Hi
Mark this is Fred, Peter said that we are going to meet on Monday
and I just wanted to touch base with you. So how much money are you
Wow, this guy was to the point. I wondered if I had made a good
decision agreeing to spend the day with him.
Monday morning comes and into the arrival lounge steps Fred. Big
tall guy, over six foot tall. His hair was just starting to turn
grey and he was dressed in baggy jeans and a T-shirt. I placed him
about 36-40 years old.
"I thought I might see some sheep running around the airport". What
do you mean, I said. "You know, highlands of Scotland, William
Wallace and all that stuff." We both started laughing. I knew I was
going to like this guy but he had a wicked sense of humor.
We made some general chit chat on the way back to Blairgowrie and
eventually we got in front of the screen where I started to explain
how I trade.
Around this time I was really into Fibonacci and the approach I used
at that time was the forerunner to www.surefire-forex-trading.com.
This is where the real story starts.
Fred just sat there looking at me. He had his face resting on his
hand with his elbow on the table, which made his face all scrunched
up like a cabbage patch doll. I went on for about half a hour. Then
suddenly, Fred pretended to let his elbow fall off the table. "Oh,
sorry Mark, I was falling asleep. You could stun a pig with this
"What", I said, but I knew exactly what he meant.
"Well, I'm not interested in all this crap. Just show me the good
stuff, you know, the thing that makes the money."
"This is the thing that makes the money Fred."
"I'm not going to do all this mathematical stuff, there's got to be
an easier way to make money than doing all this stuff. Plus, at the
rate you make money, I might be 60 before I make any decent money."
I had to laugh, Fred was an entirely different animal from me. He
wanted to trade and make it big but he wasn't prepared to do the
We spent the rest of the day talking about trading and life in
general. I laughed the whole day. This guy only knew how to do
things one way and that was with both barrels blazing.
Fred eventually went home and things returned to normal. A few days
later I get one of many calls that were to come from Fred.
"Hi buddy, I set up my account last week and it's live today."
Great I said. "Remember to take it easy."
"Its a bit late for that me old matey, I'm short the Swiss for a
I just listened dumb stuck. You could and still do get incredible
leverage with Forex. In those days there were no such things as mini
contracts. I had just started trading with two contracts and here
was Fred on his first trade, jumping right in there with ten
How big is your stop I asked him.
"Stops are for wimps buddy. When I make a couple of grand I'll close
the position." "Listen Fred, that's dangerous.""Don't worry me old
matey. You can sit up there in the Highlands and watch the grass
grow while I make the real money down here."
About three hours later he calls again. "Just made $5000 bucko. Put
that in your pipe and smoke it." I laughed but I was worried about
A few days later Fred calls again. "You wont believe this. I was
going to short the Pound so I went short 30 contracts and went out
for a coffee.
Anyway, when I get back you will never guess what happened. I
screwed up. I pressed the buy button instead of the sell button and
now I'm up $15,000."
I had also been trading the Pound and there had just been a nice
move but I had made about $1000.
So what are you going to do now I said. Are you going to close the
position? "Hell no. Push it until it hurts me old matey".
He eventually closed the position later in the week and was up about
$45,000. Over the course of the next few weeks Fred made about six
trades and was increasing his leverage as he went. He was now
regularly trading 30 contracts plus. After about a month and a half
his account was standing at $500,000.
The pip value varies depending on which currency pair you trade but
lets say that a pip is worth $10 with one contract to make this
easy. Fred was trading 30 contracts or about $300 a pip. If the pair
moved 100 pips that would be $30,000. Contracts in Forex are also
commonly known as "lots".
Back to our story. It didn't matter how much he made he wanted to
use the maximum leverage he could and push his leverage to the
limit. It was madness but no amount of reason was going to stop him.
He had also had a remarkable run. I don't remember the exact number
but he had very few losing trades.I was getting more worked up about
his trading than he was. I eventually couldn't take it any more and
told him I was flying down to see him. I was also curious to see how
he was doing this. What mad method was he using. As it turned out,
his method was remarkably simple. Look at this chart
Basically at around midday he would just draw a straight line across
the top and bottom of any consolidation he could see on a 5 minute
chart. If he had a couple of closes above the consolidation he went
long. If he had a couple of closes below the consolidation he went
short. There was either no stop or one so far away that it didn't
matter much. He just closed the position when he felt he had made
enough or judged the market to be turning on him. It was a sort of
Things came to a head when Fred went on holiday. He didn't
particularly want to go on holiday but he had arranged this months
before him started to trade. He had arranged to take his family to
Disney Land and off he went. Finally I thought, some peace and
quite. But not quite.
He could only have been on the ground for a few hours when I got the
call. "What's the Yen doing." Forget it I said. You need to take a
break and spend some time with the family. Silence on the other end
of the phone.
A few hours later he calls again. "Right me old matey, I've just
bought a fax machine, fax me over a chart of the Yen." I couldn't
believe what I was hearing. He wanted to trade without a dealing
station and no access to charts. "No way Fred." "Listen up buddy, I
am going to take it easy, I just want to be in the market. Send me a
5 minute of the Yen and I will keep it to ten contracts."
Reluctantly I agreed but made it clear I thought he was off his
I knew that regardless of what I said he would find a way to trade.
As it turned out, even on his two week holiday he made over
$100,000. Obviously going over his 10 contract limit he promised me.
I could go on here about his trades but the incredible run finally
ended one Sunday night after about three months and around 40
trades, Fred had managed to parlay his initial starting capital up
to one million dollars.
Now if you trade currencies, you know that nothing much happens on a
Sunday night. Asia opens but generally there are no big moves.
The phone rings about 1 am and wakes me from my sleep. "What the F%
$* is happening to the Swiss." He didn't even wait for an answer, he
just hung up. I lay in bed for about ten minutes thinking about what
Fred had said and then curiosity got the better of me, I had to go
see for myself.
I knew as soon as I saw the chart what was worrying Fred. For some
reason the Swiss had gone up over 100 pips on a Sunday night. I had
never seen such a big move on a Sunday and I couldn't find any news
as to why this might be happening. Fred must be short the Swiss I
I decided to call him. "Your short the Swiss right?" yes, he
replied. "I just don't understand it. I thought I would place my
positions ahead of Mondays opening and then this Sh*% happened. What
do you think I should do?"
I didn't know. "Look, you really only have two options, close the
position now or wait for the London open and see what happens.
Whatever you decide put a stop in to be on the safe side."
I remember watching that 5 minute chart of the Swiss all night long
and about eight am London time the Swiss began to rise again. It had
moved another 80 odd pips up. I called Fred. "What did you do."
Silence on the other end of the phone. "Fred, what did you do."
"I shorted it again. I thought that as it had already moved so much
it must be ready for a pullback so I shorted it again. There is
something else Mark but I am too embarrassed to tell you." "What is
"I've been adding contracts and now its looking real shaky."
I never did find out exactly how bad his situation was that day but
I could guess. Not only had he shorted the pair again he had added
After that trade, nothing seemed to go right for Fred. He had some
wins but in a period of about a month he lost everything. Even his
starting capital. He was the first trader I knew who actually had a
margin call. That's when the broker calls you to tell you that there
is either not enough money in the account to cover the position or
it is getting dangerously close to that level.
I still consider Fred a close personal friend and we have remained
friends throughout all the years. It took some time but Fred to
recover but he did eventual make quite a bit of money in the
Here's the moral of the story. I have met some incredible traders
over the years. I even know one trader who makes millions of dollars
a year and before you ask, no, he doesn't share his method with me.
Of all the hundreds of traders I have met over the years I only know
a handful that still trade and make money year after year. All those
traders without exception have strict money management principles
and a simple method or system.
Don't be in a rush to make it in trading. You need to learn this
profession. You need to have money management principles in place
that allows you to stay in the game even when you go through a bad
patch and trust me they will come.
I asked Fred one day why he never stopped or drastically reduced the
amount he was trading when he had a million dollars. This is what he
"I have a glandular problem, I have this huge greedy gland that just
wont let me stop. When I got to a million I immediately thought, why
not ten million me old matey."
Here's a scary thought. There was a time during all this when I
would have believed he could have done it.
fatta_m0rgana: chiar este cineva pe Marketiva
care a facut praf doua conturi de 2000$
acum a elaborat o strategie cu loturi mici si fara sl
iar target +4
mie mi se pare pur si simplu dezastruos
pentru ca poti ajunge la - cateva sute de puncte
lazypawn: E vina ta, ai popularizat tehnica pe forumul tău o perioadă de timp
Mă urmăreşte replica asta, de ceva vreme.
Recunosc, o vreme am mers fară SL şi a funcţionat. Recunosc, am spus asta pe forum. Tot eu postat şi discuţia cu iduidu.
Dar ţin să vă reamintesc că username-ul meu este Fata Morgana. Şi am ales acest alias nu ca să par misterioasă, ci pentru a transmite un mesaj: gândiţi-vă înainte de a lua în serios o fata morgana.
N-am încercat niciodată să induc în eroare pe cineva în privinţa experienţei mele pe forex. De la început am spus ce “vechime” am şi cât de “vastă” îmi este experienţa pe forex. Dacă postez ceva mai mult decât alţii – sunt traderi cu mai multă experienţă, care au mult mai multe de spus decât mine – este pentru că, în primele zile când am intrat pe Marketiva am avut o senzaţie tare ciudată. Pătrunsesem într-o lume cu totul nouă iar informaţiile erau atât de multe şi complicate, încât m-am simţit copleşită.
Privind în urmă, cred că mi-ar fi fost de folos să gasesc undeva ce am postat eu aici. În ciclul de învăţare al unui novice în forex, sunt, probabil, undeva la începutul stadiului 3.
Dacă fac ceva bine, acel ceva este faptul că experimentez ceea ce aflu. După ce am experimentat o vreme modul de tranzacţionare făra SL şi am văzut rezultatele mi-am schimbat părerile cu 180 de grade: NU EXISTĂ RISCK MANAGEMENT FARĂ SL!
Aş putea şterge posturile mai vechi, ca de exemplu cel cu “strategia” iduidu, dar cred că e mai util să îl las. Ca avertisment pentru cei ce sunt tentaţi de idee (şi sunt destui, nu numai români, din câte am observat pe chatul de pe Marketiva).
“O imagine face cat o mie de cuvinte.” Voi vorbi în imagini:
Prima imagine arată rezultatul unei simulări pentru o strategie cu loturi mici, target mic şi fără SL.
Următoarele două sunt un avertisment pentru cei tentaţi de strategia iduidu. Am spart un cont virtual pentru a le obţine. A durat două săptămâni, dar am reuşit.
aladin e username-ul soţului meu pe Marketiva. Ca să ajungă pe locul 5 la Master of the year i-au trebuit peste 70 de tranzacţii. Ca să iasă definitiv din top, a fost de ajuns una singură.
Din pacate, nu am print screen şi cu ordinul respectiv, cu multe sute de pipsi pe -. Ar fi fost instructiv.
Dar imaginile care urmează sunt la fel de grăitoare:
Imaginaţi-vă că aveţi unul sau mai multe ordine deschise fară sl. Fie ele şi hedging. Imaginaţi-vă că nu sunteţi la calculator, sau că vă pică netul chiar într-un astfel de moment. Că deschideţi calculatorul a doua zi şi găsiţi un astfel de ordin la -800...
Sper că v-am pus pe gânduri!
Eu mi-am pus destulă cenuşă în cap .
Dar, dacă după ce citiţi mai multe păreri, recomandări de la traderi cu experienţă şi alegeţi tot să mergeţi fără sl, pe o "strategie" pe care eu însămi o reneg, atunci vă avertizez: alergaţi după o fata morgana!
Account - Record of all transactions.
Account Balance - Same as balance.
Agent - An individual employed to act on behalf of another (the principal).
Aggregate Demand - The sum of government spending, personal consumption expenditures, and business expenditures.
All or None - A limit price order that instructs the broker to fill the whole order at the stated price or not at all.
Appreciation - A currency is said to appreciate when price rises in response to market demand; an increase in the value of an asset.
Arbitrage - Taking advantage of countervailing prices in different markets by the purchase or sale of an instrument and simultaneous taking of an equal and opposite position in a related market to profit from small price differentials.
Ask Size - The amount of shares being offered for sale at the ask rate.
Ask Rate - The lowest price at which a financial instrument is offered for sale (as in bid/ask spread).
Asset Allocation - Investment practice that distributes funds among different markets (forex, stocks, bonds, commodity, real estate) to achieve diversification for risk management purposes and/or expected returns consistent with the outlook of the investor, or investment manager.
Attorney in Fact - Person who is allowed to transact business and execute documents on behalf of another person because one holds power of attorney.
Back Office - The departments and processes related to the settlement of financial transactions (i.e. written confirmation and settlement of trades, record keeping).
Balance - Amount of money in an account.
Balance of Payments - A record of a nation’s claims of transactions with the rest of the world over a particular time period. These inlcude merchandise, services and capital flows.
Base Currency - The currency in which an investor or issuer maintains its book of accounts; the currency that other currencies are quoted against. In the forex market, the US Dollar is normally considered the `base` currency for quotes, meaning that quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair.
Basis - The difference between the spot price and the futures price.
Basis Point - One hundredth of a percent.
Bear - An investor who believes that prices/the market will decline.
Bear Market - A market distinguished by a prolonged period of declining prices accompanied with widespread pessimism.
Bid - The price that a buyer is prepared to purchase at; the price offered for a currency.
Bid/Ask Spread - See spread
Big Figure - Dealer phrase referring to the first few digits of an exchange rate. These digits rarely change in normal market fluctuations, and therefore are omitted in dealer quotes, especially in times of high market activity. For example, a USD/Yen rate might be 107.30/107.35, but would be quoted verbally without the first three digits i.e. "30/35".
Bonds - Bonds are tradable instruments (debt securities) which are issued by a borrower to raise capital. They pay either fixed or floating interest, known as the coupon. As interest rates fall, bond prices rise and vice versa.
Book - In a professional trading environment, a book is the summary of a trader`s or a desk`s total positions.
Bretton Woods Accord of 1944 - An agreement that established fixed foreign exchange rates for major currencies, provided for central bank intervention in the currency markets, and set the price of gold at US $35 per ounce. The agreement lasted until 1971. See More on Bretton Woods.
Broker - An individual, or firm, that acts as an intermediary, putting together buyers and sellers usually for a fee or commission. In contrast, a `dealer` commits capital and takes one side of a position, hoping to earn a spread (profit) by closing out the position in a subsequent trade with another party.
Bull - An investor who believes that prices/the market will rise.
Bull Market - A market distinguished by a prolonged period of rising prices. (Opposite of bear market)
Bundesbank - The central bank of Germany
Cable - Trader jargon for the British Pound Sterling referring to the Sterling/US Dollar exchange rate. Term began due to the fact that the rate was originally transmitted via a transatlantic cable starting in the mid 1800`s.
Candlestick Charts - A chart that indicates the trading ranges for the day as well as the opening and closing price. If the close price is lower than the open price, the rectangle is shaded or filled. If the open price is higher than the close price, the rectangle is not filled.
Capital Markets - Markets for medium to long term investment (usually over 1 year). These tradable instruments are more international than the ‘money market’ (i.e. Government Bonds and Eurobonds).
Central Bank - A government or quasi-governmental organization that manages a country`s monetary policy a prints a nation’s currency. For example, the US central bank is the Federal Reserve, others include the ECB, BOE, BOJ.
Chartist - An individual who uses charts and graphs and interprets historical data to find trends and predict future movements, as well as, aid in technical analysis.
Clearing - The process of settling a trade.
Close a Position (Position Squaring) - To eliminate an investment from one’s portfolio by either buying back a short position or selling a long position.
Commission - Fee broker charges for a transaction.
Confirmation - A document exchanged by counterparts to a transaction that confirms the terms of said transaction.
Contagion - The tendency of an economic crisis to spread from one market to another. In 1997, financial instability in Thailand caused high volatility in its domestic currency, the Baht, which triggered a contagion into other East Asian emerging currencies, and then to Latin America. It is now referred to as the Asian Contagion.
Contract (Unit or Lot) - The standard unit of trading on certain exchanges.
Convertible Currency - A currency which can be exchanged freely for other currencies at market rates, or gold.
Cost of Carry - The cost associated with borrowing money in order to maintain a position. It is based on the interest parity, which determines the forward price.
Counter party - The participant, either a bank or customer, with whom the financial transaction is made.
Country Risk - The risk associated with government intervention (does not include central bank intervention). Examples are legal and political events such as war, or civil unrest.
Credit Checking - Due to the large size of certain financial transactions that change hands, it is essential to check that the counter parties have room for the trade. Once the price has been agreed the credit is checked. If the credit is bad then no trade takes place. Credit is very important when trading, both in the Inter-bank market and between banks and their customers.
Credit Netting - Arrangements that exist to maximize free credit and speed the dealing process by reducing the need to constantly re-check credit. Large banks and trading institutions may have agreements to net outstanding deals.
Cross Rates - An exchange rate between two currencies. The cross rate is said to be non-standard in the country where the currency pair is quoted. For example, in the US, a GBP/CHF quote would be considered a cross rate, whereas in the UK or Switzerland it would be one of the primary currency pairs traded
Currency - A country’s unit of exchange issued by their government or central bank whose value is the basis for trade.
Currency Risk - The risk of incurring losses resulting from an adverse change in exchange rates.
Day Trading - Opening and closing the same position or positions within the same trading session.
Dealer - One who acts as a principal or counterpart to a transaction; places the order to buy or sell.
Deficit - A negative balance of trade (or payments); expenditures are greater than income/revenue.
Delivery - An actual delivery where both sides transfer possession of the currencies traded.
Deposit - The borrowing and lending of cash. The rate that money is borrowed/lent at is known as the deposit rate (or depo rate). Certificates of Deposit (CD`S) are also tradable instruments.
Depreciation - A decline in the value of a currency due to market forces.
Derivatives - Trades that are constructed or derived from another security (stock, bond, currency, or commodity). Derivatives can be both exchange and non-exchange traded (known as Over the Counter or OTC). Examples of derivative instruments include Options, Interest Rate Swaps, Forward Rate Agreements, Caps, Floors and Swap options.
Devaluation - The deliberate downward adjustment of a currency`s value versus the value of another currency normally caused by official announcement.
Economic Indicator - A statistic that indicates current economic growth and stability issued by the government or a non-government institution (i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Employement Rates, Trade Deficits, Industrial Production, and Business Inventories).
Efficient Market - A market in which the current price reflects all available information from past prices and volumes.
End Of Day (or Mark to Market) - Traders account for their positions in two ways: accrual or mark-to-market. An accrual system accounts only for cash flows when they occur, hence, it only shows a profit or loss when realized. The mark-to-market method values the trader`s book at the end of each working day using the closing market rates or revaluation rates. Any profit or loss is booked and the trader will start the next day with a net position.
Estimated Annual Income - Projected yearly earnings.
Euro - The currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU) which replaced the European Currency Unit (ECU).
European Central Bank - The Central Bank for the European Monetary Union.
European Monetary Unit - The principal goal of the EMU is to establish a single European currency called the Euro, which will officially replace the national currencies of the member EU countries in 2002. Currently, the Euro exists only as a banking currency and for paper financial transactions and foreign exchange. The current members of the EMU are Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Exchange Rate Risk - See Currency Risk.
Economic Exposure - The risk on a company’s cash flow stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) - The regulatory agency responsible for administering bank depository insurance in the US.
Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Central Bank of the United States.
Fixed Exchange Rate - An official exchange rate set by monetary authorities for one or more currencies. In practice, even fixed exchange rates fluctuate between definite upper and lower bands, leading to intervention.
Fixed Interest - This type of transaction pays an agreed interest rate that remains constant for the term of the deal. Fixed interests are many times found in bonds, as well as, a fixed rate mortgage.
Flat (or Square) - To be neither long nor short is the same as to be flat or square. One would have a flat book if he has no positions or if all the positions cancel each other out.
Floating Rate Interest - As opposed to a fixed rate, the interest rate on this type of deal will fluctuate with market rates or benchmark rates. One example of a floating rate interest is a standard mortgage.
Foreign Exchange (or Forex or FX) - The simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another in an over-the-counter market. Most major FX is quoted against the US Dollar.
Foreign Exchange Risk - See Currency Risk
Forward - A deal that will commence at an agreed date in the future. Forward trades in FX are usually expressed as a margin above (premium) or below (discount) the spot rate. To obtain the actual forward FX price, one adds the margin to the spot rate. The rate will reflect what the FX rate has to be at the forward date so that if funds were re-exchanged at that rate there would be no profit or loss (i.e. a neutral trade). The rate is calculated from the relevant deposit rates in the 2 underlying currencies and the spot FX rate. Unlike in the futures market, forward trading can be customized according to the needs of the two parties and involves more flexibility. Also, there is no centralized exchange.
Forward Points - The pips added to or subtracted from the current exchange rate to calculate a forward price.
Forward Rate Agreements (FRA`s) - FRA`s are transactions that allow one to borrow/lend at a stated interest rate over a specific time period in the future.
Front and Back Office - The front office usually comprises of the trading room and other main business activities.
Fundamental Analysis - Thorough analysis of economic and political data with the goal of determining future movements in a financial market.
Futures - A way of trading financial instruments, currencies or commodities for a specific price on a specific date in the future. Unlike options, futures give the obligation (not the option) to buy or sell instruments at a later date. They can be used to both protect and to speculate against the future value of the underlying product.
GTC - Good-Till-Cancelled. An order left with a Dealer to buy or sell at a fixed price. The GTC will remain in place until executed or cancelled.
Hedge - An investment position or combination of positions that reduces the volatility of your portfolio value. One can take an offsetting position in a related security. Instruments used are varied and include forwards, futures, options, and combinations of all of them.
High/Low - Usually the highest traded price and the lowest traded price for the underlying instrument for the current trading day.
Inflation - An economic condition where there is an increase in the price of consumer goods, thereby eroding purchasing power.
Initial Margin - The required initial deposit of collateral to enter into a position as a guarantee on future performance
Interbank Rates - The Foreign Exchange rates at which large international banks quote other large international banks
Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) - An exchange of two debt obligations that have different payment streams. The transaction usually exchanges two parallel loans; one fixed the other floating.
Interest Rate Swap Points - Interest rates may be determined by a simple rule using the bid and offer spread on an fx rate. If the rate quoted is in foreign (non US) terms and the offered price is higher than the bid, then the interest rate in that nation is higher than the rate in the base nation for the particular time in question. If quoted in American terms, the opposite is true. Example – USD/ JPY quoted 105.75 to 105.65. Because the offered price is lower than the bid, then you know that rates are lower in Japan than in the US.
ISDA - The body that sets terms and conditions for derivative trades is The International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Leading Indicators - Economic variables that are considered to predict future economic activity (i.e. Unemployment, Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, Personal Income, Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Federal Funds Rate).
LIBOR - Stands for London Interbank Offer Rate. The interest rate that the largest international banks will lend to each other.
LIFFE - The London International Financial Futures Exchange. Consists of the three largest UK futures markets.
Limit Order - An order to buy at or below a specified price or to sell at or above a specified price.
Liquid and Illiquid Markets - The ability of a market to buy and sell at ease with no impact on price stability. A market is described as liquid if the spread between the bid and the offer is small. Another measure of liquidity is the presence of buyers and seller, with more players creating tighter spreads. Illiquid markets have few players, hence, wider dealing spreads.
Liquidation - To close an open position throgh the execution of an offsetting transaction.
Liquid Assets - Assets that can be easily converted into cash. Examples: money market fund shares, US Treasury Bills, bank deposits, etc.
Long - A position to purchase more of an instrument than is sold, hence, an appreciation in value if market prices increase.
Margin - Customers must deposit funds as collateral to cover any potential losses from adverse movements in prices.
Margin Call - A requirement from a broker or dealer for additional funds or other collateral to bring the margin up to a required level to guarantee performance on a position that has moved against the customer.
Mark to Market (or End Of Day) - Traders account for their positions in two ways: accrual or mark-to-market. An accrual system accounts only for cash flows when they occur, hence, it only shows a profit or loss when realized. The mark-to-market method values the trader`s book at the end of each working day using the closing market rates or revaluation rates. Any profit or loss is booked and the trader will start the next day with a net position.
Market Maker - A dealer who supplies prices and is prepared to buy or sell at those stated bid and ask prices. A market maker runs a trading book.
Market Order - An order to buy/sell at the best price available when the order reaches the market.
Market Risk - Risk relating to the market in general and cannot be diversified away by hedging or holding a variety of securities.
Maturity - The date a debt becomes due for payment.
Mine and Yours - To announce that a trader wants to buy he/she may say or type Mine. This would also be known as taking the offer. To sell he will use Yours. This would be known as `hitting the bid`.
Money Markets - Refers to investments that are short-term (i.e. under one year) and whose participants include banks and other financial institutions. Examples include Deposits, Certificates of Deposit, Repurchase Agreements, Overnight Index Swaps and Commercial Paper. Short-term investments are safe and highly liquid.
Net Worth - Amount of assets which exceed liabilities; May also be known as stockholders equity or net assets. For an individual -- the total value of all possessions such as houses, stocks, bonds, and other securities, minus all outstanding debts, such as mortgage and loans.
Off Balance Sheet - Products such as Interest Rate Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements are examples of `off balance sheet’ products. Also, financing from other sources other than equity and debt are listed.
Offer - The price, or rate, that a willing seller is prepared to sell at.
Offsetting Transaction - A trade that serves to cancel or offset some or all of the market risk of an open position.
One Cancels Other Order (O.C.O. Order) - A contingent order where the execution of one part of the order automatically cancels the other part.
Open Order - An order to buy or sell when a market moves to its designated price.
Open Position - A deal not yet reversed or settled and the investor is subject to exchange rate movements.
Options - An agreement that allows the holder to have the option to buy/sell a specific security at a certain price within a certain time. Two types of options – call and put. A call is the right to buy while a put is the right to sell. One can write or buy call and put options.
Order - An order is an instruction, from a client to a broker to trade. An order can be placed at a specific price or at the market price. Also, it can be good until filled or until close of business.
Overnight - A trade that remains open until the next business day.
Over The Counter (OTC) - Used to describe any transaction that is not conducted over an exchange.
Pegging - A form of price stabilization; typically used to stabilize a country’s currency by making it fixed to the exchange rate with another country.
Pip (or Points) - The term used in currency market to represent the smallest incremental move an exchange rate can make. Depending on context, normally one basis point (0.0001 in the case of EUR/USD, GBD/USD, USD/CHF and .01 in the case of USD/JPY).
Political Risk - Changes in a country’s governmental policy, which may have an adverse effect on an investor`s position.
Position - A position is a trading view expressed by buying or selling. It can refer to the amount of a currency either owned or owed by an investor.
Premium - In the currency markets, it is the amount of points added to the spot price to determine a forward or futures price.
Price Transparency - Every market participant has equal access to the description of quotes.
Quote - An indicative market price; shows the highest bid and/or lowest ask price available on a security at any given time.
Rate - The price of one currency in terms of another.
Realized and Unrealized Profit and Loss - One using an accrual type accounting system has an “unrealized profit” until he sells his shares. Upon the sale of one’s shares, the profit becomes “realized.”
Re-purchase (or Repo) - This type of trade involves the sale and later re-purchase of an instrument, at a specified time and date. Occurs in the short-term money market.
Resistance - A term used in technical analysis indicating a specific price level at which a currency will have the inability to cross above. Recurring failure for the price to move above that point produces a pattern that can usually be shaped by a straight line.
Revaluation Rates - The revaluation rates are the market rates used when a trader runs an end-of-day to establish profit and loss for the day.
Risk - Exposure to uncertain change, the variability of returns significantly the likelihood of less-than-expected returns.
Risk Capital- The amount of money that an individual can afford to invest, which, if lost would not affect their lifestyle.
Risk Management - To hedge one’s risk they will employ financial analysis and trading techniques.
Rollover - The settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date with the cost of this process based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies.
Settlement - The finalizing of a transaction, the trade and the counterparts are entered into the books.
Short - To go `short` is to have sold an instrument without actually owning it, and to hold a short position with expectations that the price will decline so it can be bought back in the future at a profit.
Short Position - An investment position that results from short selling. Benefits from a decline in market price because the position has not been covered yet.
Spot - A transaction that occurs immediately, but the funds will usually change hands within two days after deal is struck.
Stop Order - An order to buy/sell at an agreed price. One could also have a pre-arranged stop order, whereby an open position is automatically liquidated when a specified price is reached or passed.
Spot Price - The current market price. Spot transaction settlements usually occurs within two business days.
Spread - The difference between the bid and offer (ask) prices; used to measure market liquidity. Narrower spreads usually signify high liquidity.
Support Levels - A term used in technical analysis indicating a specific price level at which a currency will have the inability to cross below. Recurring failure for the price to move below that point produces a pattern that can usually be shaped by a straight line.
Swaps - A swap occurs when one currency is temporarily exchanged for another, then the currency is held and exchanged later after a fixed period of time. To calculate the swap take the interest rate differential between the two underlying currencies, thus it may be used for speculative purposes to exploit anticipated movement in the interest rates.
Sterling - Another term for the Great British Pound.
Technical Analysis - An effort to forecast future market activity by analyzing market data such as charts, price trends, and volume.
Tick - Minimum price move.
Ticker - Shows current and/or recent history of a currency either in the format of a graph or table.
Tomorrow Next (Tom/Next) - Simultaneous buying and selling of a currency for delivery the following day.
Transaction Cost - The cost associated with buying or selling of a financial instrument.
Transaction Date - The date on which the trade occurs.
Turnover - The volume traded, or level of trading, over a specified period, usually daily or yearly.
Two Way Price - Both the bid and offer rate is quoted for a Forex transaction.
Uptick - A new price quote that is higher than the preceding quote for the same currency.
Uptick Rule - In the U.S., a regulation which states that a security may not be sold short unless the trade prior to the short sale was at a price lower than the price at which the short sale is executed.
US Prime Rate - The interest rate at which US banks will lend to their prime corporate customers.
Value Date - The date that both parties of a transaction agree to exchange payments.
Variation Margin - An additional margin requirement that a broker will need from a client due to market fluctuation.
Volatility - A statistical measure of a market or a security’s price movements over time and is calculated by using standard deviation. Associated with high volatility is a high degree of risk.
Volume - The number, or value, of securities traded during a specific period.
Warrants - Warrants are a form of traded option. They are the right to purchase shares or bonds issued by a company at a specific price within a specified time span.
Whipsaw - A term used to describe a condition in a highly volatile market where a sharp price movement is quickly followed by a sharp reversal.
Yard - Another term for a billion.
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cine are bunavointa sa-l si traduca ar face o pomana pentru toti romanii
m-am inscris la un demo la acest site si am constatat ca fara mare efort am castigat in 3ore cam 8% din cei 25$ creditati
mi se pare enorm.
ceva nu-i in regula!!!
stie cineva despre clar?
care aspect ti se pare ca "nu-i in regula" ?
ce efort crezi ca trebuia sa depui ?
crezi ca ti-a "modelat" brokerul tranzactia ca sa iesi pe asa profit ?
ma indoiesc. zilnic pot fi atinse rate ale profitului si mai mari; valabil si pentru pierderi.
iti recomand sa pui picioarele in apa rece si sa incepi a te informa despre tranzactionarea in marja, riscurile unui leverage mare, a utilizarii excesive a marjei .... care mai des te pune la pamant decat te ajuta ..
iar demo accounts, pe langa faptul ca sunt bune pentru testarea diferitelor ideii si acomodarea cu o platforma, servesc in primul rand pentru atragerea cat mai multor clienti.
putine lucruri sunt gratuite pe lumea asta...
ajutor si de la fata morgana
Sper ca mi-ai adresat intrebarea doar pentru ca ai observat ca sunt mai vorbareata, nu pentru ca ma consideri mult mai priceputa: cu cateva luni de invatat, sunt doar o incepatoare. Ce scriu eu e doar o parere care - sper - e de ajutor celor care de-abia deschid primele lor conturi demo.
Daca e ceva in neregula cu castigul respectiv?
De obicei, castig mare si rapid = risc mare.
Jhon Carter, cel care tine seminarul de mai sus, spune ca "traderii profesionisti se concentreaza asupra limitarii riscului si protejarii capitalului. Traderii amatori se concentreaza asupra a cati bani pot face la fiecare tranzactie. profesionistii iau totdeauna banii amatorilor.
Traderii amatori se transforma in traderi profesionisti atunci cand inceteaza sa se uite dupa "urmatorul super indicator tehnic" si incep sa controlrze riscul la care se expun la fiecare tranzactie. (Traducere aproximativa )
De castigat, poti castiga si mai mult. Cel mai mult am facut 40%/zi. Ceea ce inseamna ca riscul a fost de cel putin 20% pentru acea zi, la un raport de 1:2 intre marimea sl si target.
Dar asta inseamna sa tranzactionezi la noroc. Crezi ca te poti baza pe noroc?
s-ar mai putea alimenta un card emis de o banca din acea tara - in masura in care normele proprii privind cunoasterea cleintelei o permite
am citit si eu strategiile, sunt instructive si bine de incercat
totusi nu stiu cum se pun in practica
cum se pune short ca mie imi apare intotdeauna long?
Long este atunci cand dai buy si crezi ca va creste cursul..iar Short apare atunci cand dai sell si crezi ca va scadea cursul!