Gaeta Consult's Blog

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's banking minister, Yoshimi Watanabe, said Wednesday the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage problems on the Japanese economy will likely be limited.

"While global financial markets fell into unstable conditions, the troubles in the subprime market are unlikely to have a huge impact on Japan's real economy or financial system," Watanabe said at a press conference.

However, he said there still remains a risk of a yen-carry trade unwinding.

He added that Tokyo share prices may also fall more as players sell stocks to cover subprime losses.

Copyright ? 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

LONDON -The U.K.'s goods trade deficit with the rest of the world widened to GBP7.1 billion in July from GBP6.5 billion in June as imports rose more than exports, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.

The June deficit was revised from a previously published figure of GBP6.3 billion.

The deficit in July was much wider than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week forecast the trade deficit would widen to GBP6.4 billion.

ONS said that total imports rose to GBP26.3 billion in the month compared with GBP25.3 billion the month before. The rise, it said, was mainly due to higher imports of consumer goods, cars, chemicals, and food, drink and tobacco.

Exports also rose, but only by around GBP0.5 billion. That was driven by higher overseas purchases of U.K.-produced capital goods and chemicals, ONS said.

ONS's trade data have been bedeviled by inaccuracy and revision in recent times, mainly due to problems recording import and export levels following a European-wide value-added tax scam.

There was a further problem Tuesday when ONS admitted that GBP300 million of oil exports had been double-counted in June, because of an incorrect return from an oil trader.

As a result, the U.K.'s oil trade balance was slightly in deficit in June, compared with a previously published surplus. In July the oil trade deficit widened further to GBP0.3 billion.

Copyright ? 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

UK Jul Adj Global Trade -GBP7.1B Vs Revised -GBP6.5B

UK Jun Adj Goods Trade Balance Revised From -GBP6.3B

UK Jul Adj Global Goods Trade Bal Was Forecast -GBP6.4B

UK Jul Adj Non-EU Trade -GBP4.5B Vs -GBP3.4B

UK Jul Adj Non-EU Trade Balance Was Forecast -GBP3.3B

LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. consumer price inflation fell to its lowest annual rate for thirty months in August, casting further doubt on the need for any more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England this autumn.

The Office for National Statistics said Tuesday that annual CPI inflation was 1.8% in August, down from 1.9% in July.

The rate was also just below the 1.9% level expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week.

On the month, the consumer price index was up 0.4%, compared with a fall of 0.6% in July. That was in line with expectations.

The annual rate of inflation was last lower in February 2005, when it was 1.7%. CPI inflation has now been lower than the BOE's 2.0% target rate for two months in a row.

That will further cement expectations that the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee won't see the need to raise interest rates for the rest of 2007, leaving bank rate at 5.75%.

The MPC had previously raised rates five times in the twelve months to August.

The ONS also said that the retail price index rose 0.6% on the month in August, and 4.1% on the year. The Dow Jones Newswires forecast was for it to go up 0.4% on the month and be at an annual rate of 4.0%.

In July the RPI fell 0.6% on the month and rose 3.8% in annual terms.

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

UK Aug CPI +0.4% On Month; +1.8% On Year

UK Aug CPI Was Forecast +0.4% On Month; +1.9% On Year

UK Aug Core CPI Was +0.4% On Month; +1.8% On Year

UK Aug RPI +0.6% On Month; +4.1% On Year

MADRID (Dow Jones)--Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes reiterated Wednesday his belief that the European Central Bank's rate-tightening campaign is nearly over.

"I don't know what the ECB will do" at its next policy meeting, Solbes said in an interview on Cadena Ser radio station.

"But it's fairly evident... that most of the rise in interest rates is over," he said.

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Romanian Aug CPI +0.86% Vs +0.29% In July- Mediafax

U.K. service sector purchasing managers index surged to 57.6 in August from 57.0 in July, market sources say. DJN forecast was 56.5. The data follow an unexpected rise in the manufacturing PMI released earlier this week which rose to 56.3 from 55.9 in July. Despite the strength in the indexes the BoE remains poised to keep interest rates on hold at 5.75% when it announces its decision midday Thursday. (IAB)

Copyright ? 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Bank of Canada statement later today likely to sound dovish, says Tohru Sasaki, chief FX strategist at JP Morgan Chase Bank. Expects BOC to keep rates on hold, while "focus will be on BOC statement to assess how the change in environment since the last interest rate decision has influenced (its) policy stance." Adds, facing a possible U.S. economic slowdown, tightening of credit market, and with CAD hovering at high levels despite falling commodity prices, there's a high possibility BOC statement will be dovish.

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Salutare tuturor de pe Vamist.com,

Pentru ca este foarte "trendy" sa ai blog ne-am decis si noi cei de la Gaeta Consult sa avem unul. Fiind Introducing Agent pentru City Credit Capital (UK)Ltd. in Romania , ne-am gandit ca ar fi potrivit sa avem unul pe Vamist.com, un loc ce isi propune sa adune la un loc comunitatea FOREX din Romania, fie ca sunt experimentati sau incepatori, traderi profesionisti sau simpli pasionati, investitori sau gambleri (pentru ca din pacate exista si asa ceva...)

Ceea ce o sa incercam sa facem aici va fi sa dam o nota de "real-time" blogului prin postarea de stiri importante, comentarii din piata si analize, dar si sa venim in intampinarea celor mai putin experimentati prin sectiuni de genul "indicatorul saptamanii" , prezentarea diferitelor valute implicate in Forex, etc...

Asteptam comentariile voastre si chiar intrebari sau sugestii

Bafta si cat mai multi pipsi in profit

*DJ US ISM Aug Mfg Business Index 52.9

*DJ US ISM Aug Mfg Business Index Expected 53.0

*DJ US ISM Aug Mfg Business Index 52.9 Vs Jul 53.8

*DJ US ISM Aug Prices Index 63.0 Vs Jul 65.0

*DJ US ISM Aug Employment Index 51.3 Vs Jul 50.2

*DJ US ISM Aug New Orders Index 55.3 Vs Jul 57.5

*DJ US ISM Aug Production Index 56.1 Vs Jul 55.6

*DJ US ISM Aug Inventories Index 45.4 Vs Jul 48.5

Definition

The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production.

Why Do Investors Care?

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services here in the U.S. Exports show the demand for U.S. goods in countries overseas. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of U.S. trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.

Legal Notices |? Copyright 2000 -2007 Econoday, Inc.

Definition

The Institute for Supply Management surveys nearly 400 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where reading above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index.

Why Do Investors Care?

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The ISM manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices and clues regarding the potential for developing inflation. The Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on this report that helps it to determine the direction of interest rates when inflation signals are flashing in these data. As a result, the bond market is highly sensitive to this report.

French July Foreign Trade Gap EUR3.3 Bln Vs June EUR3.15 Bln

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro zone's trade surplus with the rest of the world narrowed in July from June, but export growth remained strong despite the strength of the region's currency.

The 13 countries that share the euro recorded a surplus of EUR4.6 billion in trade in goods with the rest of the world in July, the European statistics agency Eurostat said Monday, narrower than the figure reported in June, but well ahead of the EUR1.1 billion surplus recorded a year earlier.

Eurostat revised June's surplus down to EUR7.6 billion from an originally reported EUR7.8 billion surplus.

The data came in below the EUR5.1 billion surplus predicted by economists in a Dow Jones survey last week, but still suggest that exports continue to perform well.

Eurostat said exports grew 15% year-on-year, rising to EUR129.7 billion from EUR113.1 billion, while imports rose 12%, and the euro zone's internal dispatches grew 10%.

The recent strength of the euro against the dollar has prompted complaints from some politicians that the exchange rate would harm exports and business prospects for the region. Last week, the euro reached a fresh new high against the dollar.

And while Monday's data suggest that the currency isn't affecting export growth, they are unlikely to affect the European Central Bank's outlook on interest rates.

The ECB left its key interest rate on hold at its September monthly policy meeting due to uncertainty about the impact of the ongoing liquidity crisis that has been affecting financial markets since the end of July.

Many economists had expected the ECB's Governing Council to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% before the year's end, but many now think this is heavily dependent on whether or not the market turbulence persists.

In the first six months of the year, the data showed that the euro zone's trade surplus with the U.K. increased, compared with the first six months of 2006, while its surplus with the U.S. fell.

The region's deficit with China continued to widen, while the deficit with Russia narrowed further.

The euro zone's energy deficit was EUR105.7 billion in the six months to June, slightly narrower than the EUR125.4 billion deficit recorded in the six months to June 2006.

Exports of manufactured goods remained strong, growing 10% on the year.

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Euro-Zone Jul Trade Balance +EUR4.6B Vs +EUR1.1B Jul 06

Euro-Zone Jul Retail Sales +0.1% On Mo; +0.5% On Yr

Euro-Zone Jul Retail Sales Forecast +0.3% MM; +1.0% YY

Euro-Zone Jun Sales Revised To +0.6% On Mo; +1.0% On Yr

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold Thursday on volatile financial market conditions and liquidity concerns, but may flag plans to lift rates later this year.

Thirty-nine of the 51 private-sector banks polled by Dow Jones Newswires say that the minimum bid rate for the ECB's weekly refinancing operations will remain at 4.0%.

"Maintaining the status quo seems to be the most probable scenario, since it would give the central bank more time to judge the financial situation and its impact on growth and inflation," BNP Paribas economists wrote in a note to clients.

News about the exposure of some financial institutions to bad U.S. sub-prime mortgage debt has pushed down equities and led to a global liquidity crunch. This has prompted central banks to feed extra liquidity into the markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve also cut the discount rate by 50 basis points in August - an option that the ECB could adopt should liquidity concerns persist.

"It would be surprising for the European Central Bank to further tighten monetary conditions within the current context: its U.S. counterpart looks likely to cut Fed Funds at least twice, in September and October, in order to cushion the impact of the sub-prime crisis...and no one is yet able to get a clear idea of the fallout from the credit crisis," Natixis economists said in a research note.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi have also both hinted that a September rate hike is off the table.

Trichet said last week that the governing council's previous stance of early August, which at that time indicated a rate hike on Sep. 6, was issued before liquidity concerns erupted.

Elevated money market rates represent "a tightening of monetary conditions, equivalent to a 50 basis point hike in official rates under normal circumstances," said Jose Luis Alzola, a Senior European economist at Citigroup.

At 0945 GMT, overnight rates traded at 4.34%-4.46%.

Demand at the ECB's weekly main refinancing operation Tuesday was strong, with the ECB awarding funds at a rate of 4.15% and higher.

But inflationary pressure, and resilient real economic data may still prompt the ECB to hike rates later this year, economist said.

In particular, ECB staff may revise up their inflation projections for 2007 to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.0% currently. The ECB aims to anchor inflation at a level "close to, but below" 2% over the medium term.

Trichet will present ECB staff's independent projections for euro zone growth and inflation at the press conference following Thursday's rate verdict.

Economists will also listen carefully to Trichet's assessment of current market conditions and whether he uses the "vigilance" key word that typically indicates a rate increase at the next rate-setting meeting on October 4.

Ten of the 51 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the ECB to lift rates to 4.25% Thursday. Thirty-three economists see rates hitting 4.25% by year-end.

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

ECB Leaves Refi Rate Unchanged At 4.0%

ECB Leaves Deposit Rate Unchanged At 3.0%

BUCHAREST (Dow Jones)--Weaker-than-expected Romanian economic growth of 5.8% in the first half of the year drove analysts Tuesday to lower their year-end forecasts to well below official estimates, news agency Mediafax reported.

Romania's economy has recorded robust growth over the past few years, with growth accelerating to 7.7% last year, and Romanian authorities expect economic growth of 6.5% this year.

"It's highly unlikely that Romania's GDP growth will top 5.8% this year," said Ionut Dumitru, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank Romania.

Agriculture will be mostly responsible for a slowdown in GDP growth in the remainder of the year, he said, as the country has been hit by the worst heatwave in the last 60 years.

Earlier Tuesday, Romania's Statistics Institute said second-quarter GDP grew 5.6% compared with 7.8% in the year-earlier period, but didn't give any reasons for the slowdown. It said it would give further details on GDP growth in a press conference Friday.

Analysts, however, cited taxes, lower industrial output and the country's heat-ravaged agriculture sector.

"Weaker tax revenues, which in the first quarter trimmed GDP growth (of 6.0%) by 1 percentage point, might have lingered in the second quarter as well," said Ciprian Dascalu, senior economist at ING Bank in Bucharest.

"Of course, we can only assume these to be the main reasons for the slowdown," he added.

Radu Craciun, an analyst at ABN Amro Romania, said he expects economic growth to range between 5.5% and 5.9% this year.

Analysts at international ratings agencies also revised forecasts on Romania Tuesday.

"The slowdown in growth is expected. There is probably some base effects after last year's rapid growth," said Kenneth Orchard of Moody's Investors Service Inc., adding the ratings agency's latest data indicate Romania's economy will grow 5.8% in 2007.

"First-half GDP growth of 5.8% was below my expectation of 6-6.5%. I had thought GDP was likely to grow 6.5% over 2007 as a whole. I am revising that down to 6.0%," said Andrew Colquhoun, a senior analyst at Fitch.

The slowdown in first-half GDP growth had an immediate impact on the Romanian leu, which sank to a near four-month low of RON3.3105 against the euro Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.mediafax.ro

The latest finance ministry data indicate revenue to the general consolidated budget totaled 76.1 billion lei ($31.8 billion) in the first eight months of this year, up from RON63.55 billion in the corresponding period last year. The ministry didn't provide expenditure data.

Romania's general budget posted a surplus last month on the back of local and social security budgets. In the first eight months of this year, local budgets posted a surplus of 0.9% of GDP, sustaining again the growth in the general consolidated budget.

In the first half of 2007, the general consolidated budget posted a deficit of 0.19% of GDP, compared with a surplus of 1.12% of GDP in the corresponding period a year earlier.

The Romanian government has set a budget deficit ceiling of 2.8% of GDP for this year, but Vosganian said last week he expects a year-end budget deficit of about 2% of GDP.

Agency Web site: http://www.mediafax.ro

BUCHAREST (Dow Jones)--The Romanian general consolidated budget ran a surplus of 0.5% of gross domestic product in the January-July period, against a surplus of 1.69% of GDP in the year-earlier period, news agency Mediafax reported Tuesday, citing finance ministry data.

Revenue in the January-July period stood at 70.9 billion lei ($29.6 billion) and represented 18.2% of GDP. Expenditure totaled RON69.05 billion, or 17.7% of GDP.

The state budget, which makes up the bulk of the country's general consolidated budget, posted a deficit of RON3.55 billion in January-July, but was offset by surpluses for the local and social security budgets.

In the first half of 2007, the general consolidated budget posted a deficit of 0.19% of GDP, compared with a surplus of 1.12% of GDP in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Romanian Finance Minister Varujan Vosganian said last week that he expects a year-end budget deficit of about 2% of GDP, which is below this year's budget deficit target of 2.8% of GDP and below the European Union's 3%-of-GDP budget deficit limit.

Romania should avoid any risk of exceeding the E.U. limit, he said.

The European Union has warned newcomer Romania that it may face disciplinary action as its 2007 deficit is likely to exceed the E.U. limit. According to E.U. accounting methods, the Romanian budget deficit will total 3.2% of GDP this year.

In 2006, Romania's budget deficit, according to the European System of Accounts, stood at 1.9% of GDP, compared with the 1.7% of GDP calculated by the Romanian authorities.

Web site: www.mediafax.ro

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index is expected to have slipped a bit, but remained firmly in positive territory in August.

The median estimate of 13 economists surveyed Friday by Dow Jones Newswires is for a reading of 53.0 in August for the ISM manufacturing index, down slightly from the reading of 53.8 in July. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity.

The ISM is due to release its manufacturing index for August at 10:00 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.

After the release of the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago's purchasing managers index on Friday, which showed a modest increase to a reading of 53.8 from 53.4, Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., wrote "we still look for a modest deceleration in the ISM index for August. We are forecasting a decline from 53.8 to 53.0 and are not altering that view in light of the Chicago PMI results."

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Japan Bank Minister Yoshimi Watanabe says in early afternoon session that Tokyo shares may fall more on U.S. subprime mortgage problems. "I think this is in line with the views of everyone in the market," says manager at sales department at Japanese brokerage. Nikkei could dip below Aug. 17 low of 15262.10 if players see greater impact from subprime issue, such as USD/JPY fall that could significantly affect earnings outlooks for Japanese exporters, he says.

Japan Bank Minister Watanabe's comment there's chance JPY carry trade unwinding will continue is likely behind recent drop in EUR, USD, NZD and others vs JPY; EUR/JPY falls as far as 157.30 with USD/JPY briefly down near 115.75. Comments keep alive view that carry trade unwinding could pick up again amid uncertain global environment. "His remarks may have been used as a cue to buy the yen," says trader at Japan bank; adds impact may be short-lived as unclear on what ground Watanabe thinks this may be the case. "It's necessary to pay attention to whether he has clear evidence the unwinding will continue," says another trader. Westpac's Sean Callow says "the fear is someone in Watanabe's position might be seeing signs of outstanding yen carry positions that had on some measures seemed roughly squared."

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.