Daily Forex Analysis

Here's Our Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD starts lower in Asia, rallies in Europe • Rallies on Durables data then fades • Ends New York Mixed Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to continue under pressure ahead of GDP tomorrow • Volumes should drop off also Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q 0.9% • 8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.6% • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K • 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage • 2:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks • 7:00pm USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks Summary The USD ends the day mixed after a slow start in …

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD starts slow; makes a show for strength in NY • US data mixed and of little help • Traders await more tomorrow Overnight Preview • Look for a rally in the USD overnight • Lack of downside follow-on selling seen Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.4% • 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.5% • 9:00pm USD Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks • 12:50pm USD Minneapolis Fed President Stern Speaks Summary The USD enjoyed a day of higher pricing but failed to break into any new areas of S/R against the majors. For the most part the Gr…

Daily Forex Analysis Pattern Main Trend: Up Main Trend Top: None Main Trend Bottom: 1.5283 (05-08-08) Current Pattern: Reversal Top 1.5814 (05-22-08) Price 1.6019 Main Top (04-22-08) 1.5894 Gann Angle Down 1.5814 Closing Price Reversal Top (05-22-08) 1.5769* Gann Angle Down 1.5771 New York Close 1.5803* Gann Angle Up 1.5549 50% Retracement 1.5543 Gann Angle Up 1.5486 .618 Retracement Time 05-23 180 Day Cycle 06-03 180 Day Cycle 06-05 Anniversary Date Top (06-05-07) Analysis The Main Trend is up. The closing price reversal top at 1.5814 on 04-22 has not been negated…

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading •USD sharply lower •German data surprises, EURO higher •US PPI not so good Overnight Preview •Look for a correction lower by the majors; today’s rally overdone? Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •10:30am Crude Oil Inventories 0.2M •1:00pm Fed Governor Warsh Speaks •2:00pm FOMC Meeting Minutes Summary The Greenback is weaker to end the day and the sharp rise by the majors stopped at technical resistance across the board suggesting that the move was a bull-trap. All the majors look really bullish into current pricing but volumes were a bit lighter than might be…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading •USD rallies in light volume •Traders say today was a “stop hunt” •Short-term traders active Overnight Preview •USD likely to fall back, European data may lift EURO Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.4% •8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% •9:00am USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks •9:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 38.0 •10:00am USD Fed Publishes TAF Summary Summary The hardly-watched LEI data today came out better-than-expected this morning and the USD saw a stop-driven rally ensue until after the London fix when the Greenback came under renewed pressure. F…

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading •US data a mixed bag, housing head-fakes everyone •Stops drive a reversal after early strength •Majors under support near-term Overnight Preview •Look for two-way consolidation on Monday •More losses for USD coming I think Looking Ahead to Monday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •10:00am USD Leading Index m/m Almost no news for Monday anywhere. Trading should be largely technical Summary The USD bulls got their horns sawed off today as better-than-expected Housing data sucked the late long into the top for the week. Across all pairs the USD rallied on the news but was unable to score new we…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading •USD rallies ahead of News, lacks follow-through •Majors on S/R volumes low •Sovereign names seen selling USD Overnight Preview •A round of book-squaring likely Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 0.1 •8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K •9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 63.6B •9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 80.1% •9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.3% •9:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks •10:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -19.0 •1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 20 •7:00pm USD Fed Governo…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD extends rally during New York • Flows described as light and disorderly Overnight Preview • Look for book-squaring • USD may have gotten ahead of itself Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% • 8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.3% • 9:15am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks • 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories Summary The USD is higher to end New York after a volatile session after the release of US data. Although the Retail Sales data came in about as expected, upwardly revised data from last month sparked a swift rally in the greenback sending it to the best leve…

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD opens mixed, ends lower • Technical levels hold gains in check • Stops in range Overnight Preview • Look for two-way action to continue • Technical trade likely Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag • 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil • 08:30 Retail Sales forecast 0.0% • 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto forecast 0.5% • 10:00 Business Inventories 0.3% This data likely to be a non-event. Markets are really watching for the larger data due on Wednesday. Summary The USD is ending the day heavily mixed to start the week. Initially firmer in overnight A…

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • BOE and ECB leave rates on hold, as expected • USD reverses after starting better overnight • Majors hold key support (?) Overnight Preview • Look for USD to consolidate, possible book squaring ahead of US data Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Trade Balance -61.4B Summary The USD is sharply lower to end the Thursday US session after initially firming overnight. The absence of major news plus general sentiment RE: the weakness in the US Economy this week put a damper on the potential for the USD to rally significantly and stay there. After a follow-on break into key su…

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • BOE and ECB leave rates on hold, as expected • USD reverses after starting better overnight • Majors hold key support (?) Overnight Preview • Look for USD to consolidate, possible book squaring ahead of US data Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Trade Balance -61.4B Summary The USD is sharply lower to end the Thursday US session after initially firming overnight. The absence of major news plus general sentiment RE: the weakness in the US Economy this week put a damper on the potential for the USD to rally significantly and stay there. After a follow-on break into key s…

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD firms, sideways after Housing Data • Pending Home Sales as expected • Speculation BOE might cut rates Thursday Overnight Preview • Look for book-squaring ahead of BOE meeting Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims forecast 370K • 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m forecast 0.5% • BOE MPC Rate Announcement no change forecasted Summary The USD has had a strong trading day after another slow start in Asia overnight. Equities softened which kept some pressure on the USD/JPY pair but the Greenback was able to stay on the offensive …

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two sided, ends flat-to-mixed • Reverses early weakness • Traders waiting for tomorrow’s data Overnight Preview • Expect consolidation. • USD likely to range trade on light volumes ahead of data tomorrow Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 9:00 AM CDT Pending Home Sales forecast -0.6%, Look for weak housing data. Summary Aside from some early fireworks on the sell side this morning the USD was relatively subdued for most of New York trade. Starting slowly in Asia overnight as the last day of Golden Week slowed the pace of early action the USD remained two-sided in technical …

Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Major pairs two-way, end stronger • Volumes light due to minor holidays • USD ends near lows Overnight Preview • Look for more two-way and consolidation trade Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • None in the US, very light start to the week; housing data Wednesday likely to carry more weight. Summary A very quiet two-way session left the USD slightly lower from Friday’s closing levels against the forex trading majors; traders note that the holiday thinned conditions contributed to the lack of interest either way. On the day, after what would have been the London fix, the USD fell into some active sellin…

Forex Trading Daily Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD very quiet • Holidays in Asia and UK Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite forecast 49.6 Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • None in the US , Very light start to the week; housing data Wednesday likely to carry more weight. Summary The USD is trading sideways to slightly lower to start New York after a very quiet overnight start to the week. Asian trade was very subdued with Japan, Korea and Thailand market centers closed; traders noted good demand for USD/JPY from a UK momentum fund as well as order driven trade in EURO. With t…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s USD Trading • USD weakens in Asia, goes two-way in Europe • Asia and Europe minor holidays, volumes light • USD rallies hard in NY trade, US data neutral Overnight Preview • Expect a book-squaring session • Not a lot left to drive the greenback Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am Nonfarm Employment forecast -80K • 8:30am Unemployment Rate forecast 5.2% • 8:30am Average Hourly Earnings m/m forecast 0.3% • 10:00am Factory Orders m/m forecast 0.2% Summary The USD roared back today from a disappointing set of data this morning and recovered a lot of lost ground against most of the pairs. USD/CHF rallied th…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s USD Trading • USD quiet in Asia, firms in Europe • GBP and EURO rally after rate cut • Whipsaw in the majors Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:15am ADP Private Payrolls, Actual+ 10,000 • 8:30am Advance GDP q/q 0.2%0.6%, Actual +0.6, -0.2% • 8:30am Advance GDP Price Index q/q 3.0%2.6% • 8:30am DECI q/q 0.8%0.8% • 9:45am Chicago PMI 47.548.2 Actual 48.3 • 2:15pm FOMC, actual 25 BP cut Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 7:30am Challenger Job Cuts y/y 9.4% • 8:30am Personal Spending m/m 0.2%0.1% • 8:30am Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1%0.1% • 8:30am Unemployment Claims 363K342K • 8…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s USD Trading USD ends mixed GBP falls through support Today’s Economic Reports Consumer Confidence out at 62.3 Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change -60K 8K 8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q 0.2% 0.6% 10:45am USD Chicago PMI 47.5 48.2 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate 2.00% 2.25% USD mixed, GBP and EURO fall through support Actually a very unexpected day for the GBP and the EURO as the USD ends a mixed session sharply higher against the Europeans and mixed against everyone else. BOE Blanchflower was making dovish remarks this afternoon and the GBP extended los…

For More Forex Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • Greenback starts firm then falls in Europe • Lots of rhetoric from Europe • Technical trade dominates Today’s Economic Reports • None in the US Summary The USD is slightly weaker this morning after a quiet start in Asia last night; traders note that firmer equities in Asia had no impact on USD/JPY this time and most feel that the market is sidelined ahead of FOMC rate announcements on Wednesday. Desks report some early demand for USD/JPY but once the European markets opened the demand fizzled; high prints in USD/JPY at 104.83 after a slow start. Exporters are noted to be ready on the offer at 105.00 with st…

Forex Daily Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD firmer to mixed • EURO extends losses • GBP bounces Today’s Economic Reports • UK GDP +2.5 y/y, lowest in 3 years • 9:00 AM CDT Consumer Sentiment forecast 63.3 Looking Ahead • Too much to list! Main US releases are GDP and FOMC Wednesday, ISM Thursday and NFP on Friday Summary The USD is two-way and mixed to start New York; overnight action was muted ahead of the weekend. In Asia the USD had narrow ranges with the release of higher-than-expected Tokyo CPI data having no effect on the Greenback; higher equities also had little impact. Traders note that the USD/JPY had attracted a lot of large names…

Daily Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD mixed • EURO fails at highs Overnight Preview • Look for more booksquaring • Quiet ahead of US data in the morning Looking Ahead • 7:30 AM CDT Durable Goods forecast +0.1% • 9:00 AM CDT New Home Sales forecast 490K Summary The USD is mixed to end New York today after a correction overnight driven by rhetoric and stops. Traders note that the Greenback traded two-sided in Asia vesting both sides of the New York close and volumes were light suggesting that technical trade was dominate. Once the European session opened the USD began to climb a bit led by a drop in EURO as enthusiasm for an ECB rate hike f…

Daily Forex Analysis Overnight Asia and Europe • USD two-sided and consolidates • No real market moving news Today’s Economic Reports • None in the US today Majors open New York mixed The USD is trading sideways in a reasonable pattern of consolidation this morning after a quiet two-way overnight session. No real market moving news was on tap and the majors are both sides of yesterday’s New York close. Currently at the start of New York trade the majors are mixed as light volumes and technical trade start the day. The USD is higher against the GBP; overnight highs on light volume were 1.9976 and after the release of BOE MPC minutes the rate sold off fo…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two-way initially overnight • USD data disappoints • Ends USD mixed Overnight Preview • Traders look for consolidation and book-squaring • No news is due so volatility possible Looking Ahead • Next week Durable Goods, Existing and New Home Sales, Michigan Sentiment Summary The USD ends New York mixed after a solid two-way forex trading day. Traders note that stops and USD short-covering were seen overnight and after the London fix; a short-squeeze in Cable also flushed weak hands and desks report that today’s action was not an expected reaction to the worse-than-expected Philly Fed data. Forecas…

Forex Daily Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD has range-bound trade despite news • CPI as expected, Housing data worse • EURO scores a lifetime high Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to consolidate with weaker tone • Book-squaring ahead of US data tomorrow likely Looking Ahead • 9:00 AM CDT Thursday Philly Fed forecast -14.0 Summary The USD was under pressure most of the forex trading day today after a quiet two-way start in Asia that saw the highs for the day. Remaining inside established ranges on the highs, the Greenback continued to probe for serious buyers but found none as today’s inflation data and housing data disappointed USD b…

Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD range bound ahead of PPI • Muted reaction to the news but USD extends gains • Traders note stops flushed Overnight Preview • More consolidation within existing ranges likely Looking Ahead • 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday CPI forecast +0.3%, core +0.2 • 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday Housing Starts and Building Permits forecast 1025K and 970K Forex Summary After a quiet two-way start overnight in Asia the USD stayed within existing ranges until the release of US PPI this morning. Traders note that the data was seen as USD supportive but not enough to break the USD out of current ranges; PPI out at +1.1% (well above expectations) while cor…

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two-sided, ends mixed • Volumes light Overnight Preview • Look for light flows overnight • Book-squaring ahead of US data in the morning Looking Ahead • 7:30 AM CDT Tuesday PPI forecast +0.4, core +0.2% • 8:00 AM CDT Tuesday TICS Summary After starting higher overnight on a generally USD-positive change in the closely watched G7 communiqué, the greenback ends the first day of the week mixed in relatively light trade. After the London fix traders report that volumes dropped and the majors drifted lower as the bulk of market participants covered positions initiated on the overnight volatility. GBP…