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  1. madden
    SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's services sector recorded a slower pace of growth in August than July, a performance gauge produced by an industry group published Wednesday shows.
    The Australian Industry Group-Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index fell 4.4 points in August from July to 51.6.
    An index reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector while a reading below 50.0 shows contraction.
    Commonwealth Bank Chief Economist Michael Blythe said the slower pace of growth in activity in August highlighted the sensitivity of the economy to interest rate rises.
    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate target 25 basis points to 6.5% in August.
    "The pullback in services sector activity after the August rate rise was somewhat larger than evident after the rate rises in 2003, 2005 and 2006," Blythe said.
    "That said, the domestic economy retains a fair degree of momentum at present. That momentum is the best insulation there is against the negatives at work."
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  2. madden
    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said he would consider an interest rate cut if the data on inflation and consumer spending suggest it was appropriate, according to Reuters.
     
    "If evidence arrives that we need a policy move, of course I will consider it and I will take that evidence seriously...That evidence would be of the nature of information that alters the outlook for real spending and inflation," Reuters cited Lacker saying Tuesday.
     
    However, he told Reuters that he "would not like people to believe that our sense of concern about inflation is diminished" because of the recent market turmoil.
     
    Lacker is not currently a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee. Last year, he consistently voted for a rate hike after the central bank stopped tightening policy in August.
     
     
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  3. madden
    BUCHAREST (Dow Jones)--Weaker-than-expected Romanian economic growth of 5.8% in the first half of the year drove analysts Tuesday to lower their year-end forecasts to well below official estimates, news agency Mediafax reported.
     
    Romania's economy has recorded robust growth over the past few years, with growth accelerating to 7.7% last year, and Romanian authorities expect economic growth of 6.5% this year.
     
    "It's highly unlikely that Romania's GDP growth will top 5.8% this year," said Ionut Dumitru, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank Romania.
     
    Agriculture will be mostly responsible for a slowdown in GDP growth in the remainder of the year, he said, as the country has been hit by the worst heatwave in the last 60 years.
     
    Earlier Tuesday, Romania's Statistics Institute said second-quarter GDP grew 5.6% compared with 7.8% in the year-earlier period, but didn't give any reasons for the slowdown. It said it would give further details on GDP growth in a press conference Friday.
     
    Analysts, however, cited taxes, lower industrial output and the country's heat-ravaged agriculture sector.
     
    "Weaker tax revenues, which in the first quarter trimmed GDP growth (of 6.0%) by 1 percentage point, might have lingered in the second quarter as well," said Ciprian Dascalu, senior economist at ING Bank in Bucharest.
     
    "Of course, we can only assume these to be the main reasons for the slowdown," he added.
     
    Radu Craciun, an analyst at ABN Amro Romania, said he expects economic growth to range between 5.5% and 5.9% this year.
     
    Analysts at international ratings agencies also revised forecasts on Romania Tuesday.
     
    "The slowdown in growth is expected. There is probably some base effects after last year's rapid growth," said Kenneth Orchard of Moody's Investors Service Inc., adding the ratings agency's latest data indicate Romania's economy will grow 5.8% in 2007.
     
    "First-half GDP growth of 5.8% was below my expectation of 6-6.5%. I had thought GDP was likely to grow 6.5% over 2007 as a whole. I am revising that down to 6.0%," said Andrew Colquhoun, a senior analyst at Fitch.
     
    The slowdown in first-half GDP growth had an immediate impact on the Romanian leu, which sank to a near four-month low of RON3.3105 against the euro Tuesday afternoon.
     
     
     
     
    http://www.mediafax.ro
  4. madden
    Romania's economy slowed markedly in the second quarter despite hefty private spending, heightening concern about the country's ballooning external debt.
    Romania's gross domestic product expanded 5.6% in the second quarter, sharply down from the 7.4% pace posted in the same period a year earlier, and close to the rate achieved in 2005, when the country was wracked by devastating floods.
    Most economists had anticipated an acceleration from the 6.0% growth of the first three months of the year. Now they must pencil in the effects of higher food prices and lower farm output, both large components of the economy.
    The Romanian Statistics Institute will provide details on Friday, but recent wage and retail data suggest perilous imbalances are growing in the new European Union member.
    The risk is that Romania, after six years of deficit reduction and fiscal reform ahead of joining the E.U., is undergoing "reform fatigue," said Ciprian Dascalu, senior economist for ING in Bucharest.
    He worried that "policy complacency" would send Romania along the boom-and-bust path trod by Hungary, where years of lax fiscal policy sparked runaway inflation and debt levels. Current austerity measures will probably keep that economy from operating in high gear through 2009, according to Nordea analyst Anders Svendsen.
    Hence Dascalu's fears. "We are concerned that what we are experiencing now may be as good as it gets for the Romanian economy for some time," said the ING economist, who had expected growth of 7.1% in the second quarter.
    Romania's main stock market index declined 0.8% on Tuesday, its fifth consecutive daily drop, and is now down 11% from its July 24 high.
    Drought around the Black Sea region has hurt more than half of Romania's arable farmland. That could knock as much as one percentage point off Romania's GDP this year, Ion Ghizdeanu, president of the national CNP forecasting commission, warned over the summer.
    Achieving the CNP's forecast for 6.5% growth this year would require a substantial acceleration, even as the bulk of the damage to the agricultural sector - which accounts for 10% of GDP and a third of the work force - materializes during the autumn forecast.
    Romania has a strong fiscal position, with its budget deficit totaling only 0.2% of GDP in the first half of the year. However, the government already has plans to push the deficit to 2.7% of GDP, with much of the widening due to hefty hikes to pension benefits.
    Euphoria at joining the E.U. this year appear to have translated quickly into stalled structural reforms and a consumer binge.
    That's evident in surging retail sales, which rose 23% in July from the same month a year earlier, the statistics institute reported Monday. That effectively matches a 24% annual jump in net wages during the same month.
    Those wage gains, driven by concessions to public-sector unions and by labor shortages in the booming construction sector, more than offset productivity gains achieved as foreign firms enter Romania's manufacturing, retail and banking sectors.
    "Higher wages are likely to lead to an acceleration of the trade gap widening," said Nora Rusu, an economist for ING in Bucharest.
    The consumption binge - led by food and drink sales - is also outpacing capital investment, which promises future yields. Fixed investments rose 18.4% on the year in the second quarter.
    That compares poorly with neighboring Slovakia, another new E.U. member whose GDP grew at an annual rate of 9.4% in the second quarter, the statistics office there reported Tuesday.
    Consumer spending is accelerating in Slovakia, too - up 7.3% on the year - but that's only a fifth above the 6.3% growth of fixed investment. Moreover, Slovakia is harvesting past investments, as exports rose 18% on the year and imports only 14%.
    As a result, Slovakia's current account deficit - a measure of reliance on external financing and also a proxy for vulnerability to any global credit crunch - is about 5.4% of GDP, down from almost 9% in 2006.
    In Romania, by contrast, exports rose 9.2% on the year in June when measured in euros, while imports rose 22.2%. Romania's current account deficit hit 10.3% of GDP last year and looks likely to exceed the CNP's 2007 forecast of 11.5% - or EUR13.35 billion - by the end of the year.
    There are "important and divergent trends between countries," said Neal Shearing, an emerging-market analyst for Capital Economics.
    That's evident even in the employment picture.
    The Romanian labor force is migrating to the public sector, an "unusual situation" for a fast-growing economy reaping a bonanza in foreign direct investment, said ING's Rusu.
    With labor costs still only half of those in Slovakia, there's still time for Romania to correct its course and focus on productivity gains rather than temporary boosts to household incomes, said Dascalu.
    "It all depends on policy makers," he said. "So far, their decisions are pointing to a populist path."
     
     
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  5. madden
    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at a slightly slower pace in August, although the gains had positive implications for the broader economy, a report Tuesday said.
     
    Private research group the Institute for Supply Management said that its index of manufacturing activity moved to 52.9 in August, from 53.8 in July and 56.0 in June. Readings over 50 point to an expansion of activity, while those under that number denote contracting activity. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the August index to come in at 53.0.
     
    "Viewed from the manufacturing sector, the overall economy continues to grow at a significant rate," said Norbert Ore, who directs the survey for the ISM.
     
    In the details of the report, the ISM said inflationary pressures continued to grow, with the prices index hitting 63.0, from 65.0 in July. The prices index stood at 68.0 in June.
     
    Meanwhile, the new orders index came in at 55.3, after 57.5 the prior month, while August's production index was 56.1, versus 55.6 the month before.
     
    The group also reported that hiring at factories grew more quickly, with the employment index coming in at 51.3, from 50.2. The inventories index came in at 45.4, down from July's 48.5.
     
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  6. madden

    ISM Mfg Index

    De madden,

    *DJ US ISM Aug Mfg Business Index 52.9
    *DJ US ISM Aug Mfg Business Index Expected 53.0
    *DJ US ISM Aug Mfg Business Index 52.9 Vs Jul 53.8
    *DJ US ISM Aug Prices Index 63.0 Vs Jul 65.0
    *DJ US ISM Aug Employment Index 51.3 Vs Jul 50.2
    *DJ US ISM Aug New Orders Index 55.3 Vs Jul 57.5
    *DJ US ISM Aug Production Index 56.1 Vs Jul 55.6
    *DJ US ISM Aug Inventories Index 45.4 Vs Jul 48.5
  7. madden
    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. construction spending unexpectedly tumbled in July as outlays for housing plunged, the government said Tuesday.
     
    Total spending decreased by 0.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.169 trillion, the Commerce Department said. Spending rose 0.1% in June; originally, June spending was seen 0.3% lower.
     
    Wall Street had expected July construction spending would be flat. The 0.4% fall was the largest decline since a drop of 0.6% in January 2007.
     
    Residential construction spending decreased in July, down by 1.4% to $541.9 billion. Residential spending decreased 0.4% in June; it was originally seen down 0.7% for the month. Year over year, residential was 15.6% lower in July.
     
    Non-residential construction spending rose by 0.6% in July. Outlays climbed for churches and schools, but fell for roads.
     
    Private-sector construction spending during July fell 0.7% to $880.1 billion. Spending went 0.2% lower in June.
     
    Public, or government, construction spending increased 0.7% to $289.0 billion. June outlays rose 1.0%. Federal government construction outlays dropped by 0.4%, but state and local spending - much larger than federal spending in dollars - increased 0.8% to $269.6 billion.
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  8. madden
    Definition
    The Institute for Supply Management surveys nearly 400 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where reading above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index.
    Why Do Investors Care?
    Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
     
    The ISM manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices and clues regarding the potential for developing inflation. The Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on this report that helps it to determine the direction of interest rates when inflation signals are flashing in these data. As a result, the bond market is highly sensitive to this report.
  9. madden
    Revenue in the January-July period stood at 70.9 billion lei ($29.6 billion) and represented 18.2% of GDP. Expenditure totaled RON69.05 billion, or 17.7% of GDP.
     
    The state budget, which makes up the bulk of the country's general consolidated budget, posted a deficit of RON3.55 billion in January-July, but was offset by surpluses for the local and social security budgets.
     
    In the first half of 2007, the general consolidated budget posted a deficit of 0.19% of GDP, compared with a surplus of 1.12% of GDP in the corresponding period a year earlier.
     
    Romanian Finance Minister Varujan Vosganian said last week that he expects a year-end budget deficit of about 2% of GDP, which is below this year's budget deficit target of 2.8% of GDP and below the European Union's 3%-of-GDP budget deficit limit.
     
    Romania should avoid any risk of exceeding the E.U. limit, he said.
     
    The European Union has warned newcomer Romania that it may face disciplinary action as its 2007 deficit is likely to exceed the E.U. limit. According to E.U. accounting methods, the Romanian budget deficit will total 3.2% of GDP this year.
     
    In 2006, Romania's budget deficit, according to the European System of Accounts, stood at 1.9% of GDP, compared with the 1.7% of GDP calculated by the Romanian authorities.
     
     
     
     
     
    Web site: www.mediafax.ro
     
  11. madden
    Sell stops in GBP/USD below 2.0125 on top of those already triggered at 2.0148 are putting 2.0 back in range, says a dealer at Societe Generale. Says intraday technicals show a downward trend forming, and advises selling on a break below Friday's low of 2.0111. Pair now at 2.0134, day's low 2.0123 on EBS. (JSE)
     
     
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  12. madden
    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index is expected to have slipped a bit, but remained firmly in positive territory in August.
    The median estimate of 13 economists surveyed Friday by Dow Jones Newswires is for a reading of 53.0 in August for the ISM manufacturing index, down slightly from the reading of 53.8 in July. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity.
    The ISM is due to release its manufacturing index for August at 10:00 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.
    After the release of the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago's purchasing managers index on Friday, which showed a modest increase to a reading of 53.8 from 53.4, Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., wrote "we still look for a modest deceleration in the ISM index for August. We are forecasting a decline from 53.8 to 53.0 and are not altering that view in light of the Chicago PMI results."
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  13. madden
    FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold Thursday on volatile financial market conditions and liquidity concerns, but may flag plans to lift rates later this year.
    Thirty-nine of the 51 private-sector banks polled by Dow Jones Newswires say that the minimum bid rate for the ECB's weekly refinancing operations will remain at 4.0%.
    "Maintaining the status quo seems to be the most probable scenario, since it would give the central bank more time to judge the financial situation and its impact on growth and inflation," BNP Paribas economists wrote in a note to clients.
    News about the exposure of some financial institutions to bad U.S. sub-prime mortgage debt has pushed down equities and led to a global liquidity crunch. This has prompted central banks to feed extra liquidity into the markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve also cut the discount rate by 50 basis points in August - an option that the ECB could adopt should liquidity concerns persist.
    "It would be surprising for the European Central Bank to further tighten monetary conditions within the current context: its U.S. counterpart looks likely to cut Fed Funds at least twice, in September and October, in order to cushion the impact of the sub-prime crisis...and no one is yet able to get a clear idea of the fallout from the credit crisis," Natixis economists said in a research note.
    ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi have also both hinted that a September rate hike is off the table.
    Trichet said last week that the governing council's previous stance of early August, which at that time indicated a rate hike on Sep. 6, was issued before liquidity concerns erupted.
    Elevated money market rates represent "a tightening of monetary conditions, equivalent to a 50 basis point hike in official rates under normal circumstances," said Jose Luis Alzola, a Senior European economist at Citigroup.
    At 0945 GMT, overnight rates traded at 4.34%-4.46%.
    Demand at the ECB's weekly main refinancing operation Tuesday was strong, with the ECB awarding funds at a rate of 4.15% and higher.
    But inflationary pressure, and resilient real economic data may still prompt the ECB to hike rates later this year, economist said.
    In particular, ECB staff may revise up their inflation projections for 2007 to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.0% currently. The ECB aims to anchor inflation at a level "close to, but below" 2% over the medium term.
    Trichet will present ECB staff's independent projections for euro zone growth and inflation at the press conference following Thursday's rate verdict.
    Economists will also listen carefully to Trichet's assessment of current market conditions and whether he uses the "vigilance" key word that typically indicates a rate increase at the next rate-setting meeting on October 4.
    Ten of the 51 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the ECB to lift rates to 4.25% Thursday. Thirty-three economists see rates hitting 4.25% by year-end.
     
     
     
    Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
  14. madden
    Salutare tuturor de pe Vamist.com,
     
    Pentru ca este foarte "trendy" sa ai blog ne-am decis si noi cei de la Gaeta Consult sa avem unul. Fiind Introducing Agent pentru City Credit Capital (UK)Ltd. in Romania , ne-am gandit ca ar fi potrivit sa avem unul pe Vamist.com, un loc ce isi propune sa adune la un loc comunitatea FOREX din Romania, fie ca sunt experimentati sau incepatori, traderi profesionisti sau simpli pasionati, investitori sau gambleri (pentru ca din pacate exista si asa ceva...)
    Ceea ce o sa incercam sa facem aici va fi sa dam o nota de "real-time" blogului prin postarea de stiri importante, comentarii din piata si analize, dar si sa venim in intampinarea celor mai putin experimentati prin sectiuni de genul "indicatorul saptamanii" , prezentarea diferitelor valute implicate in Forex, etc...
    Asteptam comentariile voastre si chiar intrebari sau sugestii
     
     
     
    Bafta si cat mai multi pipsi in profit
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