ForexAnalysis

Forex Analysis - Daily Overnight Asia/Europe • USD opens flat to slightly better, reverses as equities rise • US Data due today likely to be USD unfriendly • Tokyo closed for holiday Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD Existing Home Sales • Very light day for everyone on Monday Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q • 8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q • 9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y • 10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence • 10:00am USD HPI m/m • 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index Summary The USD is under pressure this morning after starting a holiday-shortened week about flat in Asia. Tokyo had a holiday today leaving a lot of Asian players on the sidelines making for slow and thinner trade; traders report that stops are building on both sides of the market after last week’s neutral close and Friday’s USD retreat. Equities provided a bit of lift to the majors as follow-on buying of Asian markets and Europe holding firm ahead of US trade. DJOA futures are called to open higher on Wall street which is no doubt keeping the majors on the offensive to start the day. USD/JPY rallied higher with equities as expected but was unable to clear above the 96.00 handle with any conviction; high prints at 96.09 were offered to cap the rate before heading lower. Traders note that most desks expect further price declines in the rate as the Yen technically remains the strongest currency on the board. GBP held Friday’s lows with a low print at 1.4840 before reversing and slowly building momentum into highs; high prints in late Europe at 1.5046 with traders noting stops above the psychological 1.5000 area getting hit. EURO held above Friday’s lows as well; low prints at 1.2566 in European trade after starting flat in two-way action in Asia. Traders note that this morning’s IFO sentiment index came in lower than forecast at 85.8 and traders offered the rate lower but were unable to find stops; high prints at 1.2720 in late European trade as the rate reversed losses on positive equities. Traders note that both GBP and EURO saw semi-official names and an Asian sovereign on the offers overnight but size was smaller suggesting that selling interest from large traders may be dropping a bit. USD/CHF opened lower and held off an attempt to rally; high prints at 1.2228 area under Friday’s highs with lows at 1.2124 holding previous resistance suggesting that stops will be building as expected around the 1.2080 area. Aggressive traders can sell strength in the rate above the 1.2180 area in my view. USD/CAD is also under pressure staying near lows at 1.2650 area with a low print at 1.2635 in early New York making for a clean sweep against the USD to start the week. IN my view the USD is putting in a top at current levels continuing to make signs that buyers are running out and that the majors are continuing to consolidate ahead of a solid short-squeeze. With a holiday-shortened week it is possible that traders will square their books ahead of the four day weekend and with a market that is heavily long that would mean some significant selling pressure. Look for the USD’s fortunes to ebb and flow with equities today; a higher close on Wall Street would likely encourage the EURO to rally a bit. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5200/10 Resistance 2: 1.5120/30 Resistance 1: 1.5050 Latest New York: 1.4949 Support 1: 1.4700/10 Support 2: 1.4650 Support 3: 1.4550 Comments Follow-on selling drops rate into next support at the 1.4700 area last week but rate starts firmer. Traders note solid two-way action with stops building above the market likely in the 1.5050 area and higher. Some stops over 1.5000 flushed overnight. Sellers hold control above 1.5000 today as rate backs off highs but lows hold. OK to buy if flat on a dip. Traders also note the same names seen in size on the bid the past few days has been on the offer overnight. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 4:30am GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 4:45am GBP MPC Treasury Committee Hearings EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.2880 Resistance 2: 1.2850 Resistance 1: 1.2800/10 Latest New York: 1.2744 Support 1: 1.2420 Support 2: 1.2380 Support 3: 1.2320/30 Comments High prints in early New York as stocks firm further ahead of the US open. Follow-on selling drops the rate into light stops after IFO data released but lows hold above Friday’s action. Rally off the lows to score highs at 1.2740 area suggests bids are building under the 1.2600 area as expected. OK to try the long side again on a dip. Bids support to hold rate firm after whipsaw; likely some spillover support from GBP. Two-way action still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area in size suggesting short-term traders active on the sell-off; stops under the market in size likely around 1.2350 now after weekly lows last week hold. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 72 hours with possible sell interest at the highs overnight to start. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 2:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Analysis - Daily Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD starts weaker, stops drive majors higher • Upside resistance holds and the majors drop hard • Volumes high on the move Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to follow-on higher early overnight • Should get quiet ahead of US data Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 2:00pm USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks Summary After early US data was unfriendly to the USD and the greenback suffered losses the USD roared back from lows and scored new highs against most major pairs in mid-day trade. Traders note that stops above the major pairs gave early strength a boost but once the buying dried up the majors reversed hard and fell back into lows. GBP failed to challenge overnight lows at 1.4903 but dropped to the low 1.5000 handle making for a hard reversal from the high prints at 1.5252. Traders note that semi-official selling and potential sovereigns near the highs likely turned the rally back. EURO suffered a harder turn as high prints at 1.2815 on high volume were turned back and the rate made new lows on the day at 1.2545 before regaining the 1.2600 handle in late trade. Both EURO and GBP appeared to be tracking each other suggesting that the move was a coordinated short-squeeze before falling back. Traders also note that volumes were high in both pairs and that stops did attract new buying but once the opening ranges fell to selling pressure late longs bailed on intra-day longs. USD/CHF made early lows under the 1.2000 handle at 1.1943 before reversing; the open hook reversal was negated as the rate crossed the 1.2050 area and scored new highs at 1.2148 before falling back to the 1.2090 area. Swissy appears to be getting a lift from weakness in Oil some traders say. Equities lower on the day after erasing losses on the open gave most of the pairs additional pressure traders say and USD/JPY remained lower on the day after an early rally failed to score new highs. High prints in the rate at 97.16 went unchallenged and as equities gave up gains the rate fell into lows; low print at 96.00 was unable to trigger resting stops as other pairs had done. Late data included the FOMC minutes of the latest meeting and traders note that the minutes show no real news but the pressure on the USD to rally likely was done ahead of the news suggesting that the move may have been technical to start; once the volatility hit the market it was unlikely that news would be in focus. In my view, the upside move in the majors was due to be sold as it was the first attempt at the overhead resistance area recently broken; the speed and depth of the retracement was unexpected and no doubt will inspire additional follow-on selling overnight. Should the USD fail to follow-through with any conviction it is likely the upside bounce may be the exhaustion rally. Look for the majors to consolidate ahead of US data in the morning which again is expected to be USD unfriendly. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5300/10 Resistance 2: 1.5280 Resistance 1: 1.5250 Latest New York: 1.4975 Support 1: 1.4900 Support 2: 1.4820/30 Support 3: 1.4700 Comments Overhead resistance around 1.5100 gives way to stops above lifting the rate to highs at 1.5250; failure and reversal suggests rate is set to rotate lower and test support around the 1.4820 area. Traders note stops above the 1.5100 handle we in size but new buying turned back. Traders also note the same names seen in size on the bid the past few days. Resistance is expected to hold rate for a pullback and aggressive traders can buy that dip if it comes. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 4:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m 4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.2880 Resistance 2: 1.2850 Resistance 1: 1.2800/10 Latest New York: 1.2535 Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500 Support 2: 1.2450/60 Support 3: 1.2400 Comments Rate reverses after highs at 1.2815 area attract profit-taking by the longs and selling by the shorts; rate dips to lows into the 1.2500 handle again. Bids support to hold rate firm after whipsaw. Two-way action still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area in size suggesting short-term traders active; stops cleared and new buying turned back. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 48 hours with possible sell interest at the highs today. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German PPI m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

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To sign up for Foexpros.com's latest webinar please click HERE !!! forex[/acronym]-trading-risk...or-fail-22"]http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webin...sk...or-fail-22 Forex Analysis - Daily Today's US Dollar Trading • USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade • Equities rally lifts EURO • Volumes remain light Overnight Preview • Look for follow-on USD selling • Two-way action likely as technical’s dominate Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases • 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index Summary After starting overnight Asia better the USD reversed to continue mostly lower as US equities attempted to rally to start the week. Traders note that volumes thinned out after the London fix but the majors continued to hold gains and advance. GBP rallied into stops placed above the 1.5000/10 area for a high print at 1.5085 as stops above the 1.5050 area also were triggered; large investment house bids and sovereign bids were seen in earlier trade helping to hold the rate firm. As equities advanced into their highs EURO found additional stops above 1.2710 area for a high print at 1.2743 before backing off as equities deflated but not before two attempts at stops above the 1.2750 area were turned back. Poor economic data in the US also helped to keep the majors firm and tomorrows data is likely to remain unfriendly to the USD, traders expect additional upside pressure in both EURO and GBP after today?s upside action scored above near-term resistance. USD/JPY tracked stocks as expected and lifted to an intraday high at 97.57 before dropping back later in the day; traders note that two-way action and Yen cross spreading continue to dominate action and further losses are likely this week. Upside resistance is high above the 98.00 handle suggesting that the USD may be finding willing sellers on rallies. USD/CHF continued to hover at or near the two-year high around the 1.1950 area with thin conditions exaggerating the moves but high prints at 1.2010 went unchallenged in New York trade. In my view, the USD is setting up for a long-liquidating break near-term. Technical trade and low volumes likely have helped the Greenback hold recent gains but additional US data and overbought conditions suggests that at least a correction is due. Failure of the USD to score new highs this week make a correction to end the month more likely in my view. Aggressive traders can look to sell USD/CHF above the 1.2000 handle and sell USD/CAD above the 1.2375 area; expect volatility and always run your stops. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5200/10 Resistance 2: 1.5150 Resistance 1: 1.5080 Latest New York: 1.5028 Support 1: 1.4650 Support 2: 1.4580 Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500 Comments Rate rallies off technical support on G-20 news; potential short-squeeze with more likely coming. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Rate rejecting trade inside previous wick is a sign of bid pressure taking the lows; likely some spillover from EURO. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850, 1.5000, and 1.5050 areas; the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5000 area likely to cap near-term; expect a pullback of some kind. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP CPI y/y 4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 4:30am GBP RPI y/y 10:30am GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.2850 Resistance 2: 1.2800 Resistance 1: 1.2750 Latest New York: 1.2670 Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500 Support 2: 1.2450/60 Support 3: 1.2400 Comments Rate follows GBP higher from overnight; attempts highs late despite two-way action. Still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2630 area or so cleared after the lows suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 24 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view?I can?t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Click here to join us for our upcoming webinar! forex[/acronym]-trading-risk...or-fail-22"]http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webin...sk...or-fail-22 Control your Forex trading Risk...or Fail Stop trading now if you do not know your initial risk of loss compared with your potential reward AND how much to risk before EVERY forex trade. Tony Beckwith of the specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor Ltd. explains why you MUST follow the 4 Stage Process of trading with discipline and control to be profitable over the long run. Forex Analysis - Daily Overnight Asia/Europe • G-20 fails to inspire the USD bulls • Majors initially weaker then reverse into New York • Japan data benign Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index • 9:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks • 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate • 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases • 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index Summary Disappointment from the weekend G-20 summit in Washington gave USD bulls a slight advantage in early Asian trade but the Greenback is off marginally against the majors by the start of New York trade. Initially expecting strong rhetoric or even an agreement of some kind to give traders a reason to believe the credit crisis will be resolved quickly, the statement was seen as “more of the same” by most traders. Trading down to recent support and then rallying, GBP and EURO are still inside-range to start the week. Low prints in Cable at 1.4650 encouraged a round of short-covering and traders report large investment groups on the bid as the rate rose through stops around the 1.4850 area; high prints so far at 1.4966 with the rate holding the 1.4900 handle in early trade. EURO fell to tech support at 1.2513 holding the important 1.2500 handle on the dip with light stops reported under the 1.2550 area; high prints on the recovery at 1.2702 with stops reported around the 1.;2630 area in light trade. The two-way action suggesting that both pairs are tracking each other with the main interest seen in the crosses; Yen continued to remain stronger despite the drop in Q3 GDP estimates released overnight. High prints in USD/JPY at 97.57 in Asia before profit-taking hit the rate along with exporter selling traders say; low prints at 95.92 with the rate holding firm around 96.50 in early New York. USD/CHF rallied to a new two-year high before reversing; high prints at 1.2010 with lows at 1.1886. Making yet another hook reversal on the daily charts the USD/CHF is really trying hard to find a top and aggressive traders can sell the rate over the 1.1950 area today looking for the reversal to hold. Following the Swissy higher was Loonie making a try for highs over the 1.2400 handle; high prints at 1.2426 before reversing for lows at 1.2220; the rate holding early New York a full handle off the highs at 1.2320. With a light economic calendar for the start of the week the USD is likely to continue in two-way trade with the technical’s mostly driving trade. Late buyers will likely have stops close-in suggesting some whippy action is also possible. To start the week it is apparent that the USD bulls are getting tired at current pricing; I think the potential for a long-liquidating break is building and if the USD can’t extend gains by mid-week I would look for a drop in the Greenback to end the week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5150 Resistance 2: 1.5080 Resistance 1: 1.4990/1.5000 Latest New York: 1.4918 Support 1: 1.4650 Support 2: 1.4580 Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500 Comments Rate rallies off technical support on G-20 news; potential short-squeeze with more likely coming. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Rate rejecting trade inside previous wick is a sign of bid pressure taking the lows; likely some spillover from EURO. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850 area and the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5000 area likely to cap near-term. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action needed to find a bottom and we saw some of that last week near the lows. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP CPI y/y 4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 4:30am GBP RPI y/y 10:30am GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.2900 Resistance 2: 1.2850 Resistance 1: 1.2820/30 Latest New York: 1.2645 Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500 Support 2: 1.2450/60 Support 3: 1.2400 Comments Rate follows GBP higher from overnight but still an inside range despite two-way action. Still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2630 area or so cleared after the lows suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 24 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Analysis - Daily Today’s US Dollar Trading • Thin conditions exaggerate moves, USD firms • GBP at new six-year low • Other pairs two-way and volatile Overnight Preview • Look for two-way action overnight • USD likely to consolidate ahead of news Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Trade Balance • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 11:00am USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks • 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks • 2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance Summary Thin liquidity continued to plague traders today as USD buying at the London Fix drove the majors to fresh lows for the week and in the case of the GBP to multi-year lows. GBP is now trading at prices not seen since January of 2002 with a low print at 1.4893 before likely profit taking bids supported for a rally to the 1.5000 handle. Gains were short-lived after the noon hour as both the GBP and EURO slowly deflated to finish lower on the day. Dragged lower by GBP, EURO held above the 1.2450 area of rumored stops for a low print at 1.2466 before recovering a full handle in later trade; gains evaporated as the rate returned to the 1.2500 area in to the end of day. Traders note in both pairs that moves may have been exaggerated but the bears remain in control although EURO is holding firmer likely due to cross-spreading for Sterling which took the brunt of the moves today. USD/JPY fell as stocks retreated as has been the case dropping to a low print at 94.46 before short-covering lifted the rate a full handle back to the 95.60 area in late trade. Yen crosses again in focus the past 24 hours as the Yen appears the strongest currency on the board today; traders note that all the major Yen and Sterling pairs are suffering deep losses and volatility making for violent and difficult trade. Spillover weakness against the USD appears to be by default but the result is the same as traders hold long USD. USD/CHF fell making a hook reversal on the day for a low print at 1.1762 before recovering a full handle back to the 1.1860 area putting the bears on the defense after early topping formations are pressured. Traders note that commodity pricing and weaker stocks may be adding a bit of lift to the rate as gold and oil were lower today. Despite USD two-way action elsewhere the USD/CAD remains firm finding stops and active buying above the 1.2300 handle with tech resistance between 1.2330 and 1.2390 area offering some cap to the rate; traders note the rate has retraced a solid 50% from the recent drop and sellers are active but still plagued by thin conditions. In my view, the USD is whipsawing hard exacerbated by thin conditions and signs of topping are evident but so far the bid is still on for Greenbacks. Overseas data is light tonight but heavy in the US suggesting a round of profit-taking by the USD longs may surface tonight in Asia. Look for more two-way consolidation ahead of US data in the morning. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5800 Resistance 2: 1.5500 Resistance 1: 1.5250 Latest New York: 1.4944 Support 1: 1.4900 Support 2: 1.4810/20 Support 3: 1.4750 Comments Selling just relentless as cross-spreaders and thin conditions find no bids; low prints at 1.4895 are a new six-year low. Some stops noted on the break of 1.5100 but absolutely no two-way action yet. Technical trade overnight, more expected tonight as well as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5500 area likely to cap near-term. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP still near a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action needed to find a bottom. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) NONE EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2490 Support 1: 1.2480 Support 2: 1.2420/30 Support 3: 1.2400 Comments Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; Russians possibly buying on the dips. Two-way action all day despite weakness elsewhere; lows hold around weekly lows despite new low by GBP. Stops under the 1.2450 area possibly in size; rate holding 1.2500 into the close a good sign for the bulls. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on strength ahead of 1.2700 I think; bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q 2:45am EUR French CPI m/m 4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

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Join in this fun and lively web based seminar simply visit at: http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webin...tting-losses-12 Click Here To Join this Free Webinar http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webin...tting-losses-12 Forex Analysis- Daily Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD rallies in thin conditions • No news, likely technical trade • Equities fall driving EURO lower Overnight Preview • Look for two-way action and consolidation • Better liquidity will help with ranges Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 11:00am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks • 1:00pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks Summary Despite a US holiday and thin conditions the USD rallied after the start of the mostly-closed New York markets opened today; traders note that technical factors likely drove trade as the USD rose to new highs against the Swiss Franc. Rising to a new two-year high for a high print at 1.1880 conditions were dismal as traders were forced to cover back open shorts expected to be set into Wednesday. News was light as the Greenback continued to rally all day making significant highs against all pairs but still holding existing monthly ranges for the most part. EURO sank back under the 1.2600 handle in a surprise move as US equities fell back for triple-digit losses; low prints at 1.2508 making a mess of near-term balance sheets. GBP also fell in sympathy with EURO for a low print at 1.5361 finding stops under the 1.5500 handle layered all the way under 1.5400; traders note cross-spreading continued for Yen as the Yen held firm across the board. USD/JPY held earlier ranges but did drop on equities weakness for a low print at 97.30 before recovering back to trade the 98.00 handle but was unable to hold. In my view, the USD benefited today from super-thin conditions and poor liquidity driving back to test previous highs but is unlikely to hold gains. Two-way trade is likely into tomorrow and the lows from the major pairs are likely to hold at least for one try. Tomorrow’s data is likely not to be market moving at all suggesting that more technical trade is coming. Look for two-way action tonight in Asia with light follow-on buying of USD early overnight. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6320/30 Resistance 2: 1.6250 Resistance 1: 1.6100/10 Latest New York: 1.5402 Support 1: 1.5380 Support 2: 1.5280/1.5300 Support 3: 1.5220 Comments Follow-on selling drops rate, cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure. Thin two-way action. Stops under the 1.5500 area drop rate into next support area around 1.5400. Technical trade overnight. Resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. Likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month but that might be factored in. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP still near a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5:30am GBP BOE Governor King Speaks 5:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2535 Support 1: 1.2480 Support 2: 1.2420/30 Support 3: 1.2400 Comments Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; Russians possibly buying on the dips. Stops under the 1.2600 area possibly in size. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try if a bounce from potential pennant bottom holds. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 1:00pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

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Forex Analysis - Daily Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD holds gains despite thin conditions • Equities fail to advance, oil rallies but fades • China news not enough to inspire confidence Overnight Preview • Holiday trade will make for thin conditions • Look for continued two-way action in thin trade Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism • All Day USD Bank Holiday—Veterans Day US data continues light tomorrow. Summary The USD ended near the highs of the day in late New York as the major pairs failed to hold early overnight gains. Despite a higher opening on Wall Street equities gains fizzled as investor confidence started the week on a down note; early excitement over the Chinese stimulus package announced over the weekend did not attract further buying. Traders note that continued concerns over emergency funding requested for the car makers weighed on investors as well as volatility in energy prices; crude oil had near a $6.50 range on the day before giving back gains and closing slightly better. With a US bank holiday due tomorrow liquidity in the markets was light and many desks only had skeleton crews as traders made a long weekend out of the Tuesday holiday. FX markets will be closed in the US for most of the day tomorrow and overnight action is expected to be very light as well; traders say that the exceptionally lower volumes and thin conditions likely exaggerated moves in the Greenback again today after early volumes died post-fix today. After a better start overnight despite cross-spreading for other pairs, the GBP made marginal lows late in the day for a low print at 1.5582 with volumes described as dismal. EURO/GBP cross made lifetime highs overnight before correcting but the focus remains centered on the EURO side of the cross; traders note that despite pressure from GBP EURO held up technically well and analysts note technically bullish developments point to a potential short-squeeze coming soon. Tomorrow’s action is expected to be light and tight-ranged with EURO likely to remain within existing ranges barring any unforeseen fundamental developments. High prints in EURO at 1.2928 were not challenged in New York after the open; low prints came late in the session at 1.2739 before bids showed up. USD/JPY failed to advance as equities advanced on the open leaving the 99.49 highs intact and slowly deflated lower all day; low prints at 97.59 remain under threat into the close. On the day the USD is trading inside established ranges with more of the same expected in holiday trade tomorrow. In my view, any dip in the majors is a buying opportunity and aggressive traders can buy further weakness in EURO and GBP; under the 1.2700 handle in EURO and under the 1.5500 area in GBP. Look for a bit of follow-on selling of the majors overnight but due to holiday trade conditions will likely be thin and whippy. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6320/30 Resistance 2: 1.6250 Resistance 1: 1.6100/10 Latest New York: 1.5578 Support 1: 1.5550 Support 2: 1.5520/30 Support 3: 1.5420 Comments Cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure overnight; rate gives back gains against USD in thin two-way action. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.5800 area on the way higher with offers mixed in; resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. UK PPI data was weaker but not as bad as expected; likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP reaches a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Trade Balance 4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2728 Support 1: 1.2680 Support 2: 1.2550 Support 3: 1.2480 Comments Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; likely they will be gone for the holiday so more losses likely. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip under the 1.2700 handle. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try if a bounce from potential pennant bottom holds. Russians buying EURO around the 1.2860 area last week traders say; offers from same likely were seen in GBP this morning. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT). All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Analysis - Daily Overnight Asia/Europe • Equities firmer overnight; underpin EURO • China announces stimulus plan, USD falls • Commodities higher also helping the Majors Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • Tentative USD Assist Treasury Sec Kashkari Speaks Light day for US news—expect two-way action. Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism • All Day USD Bank Holiday—Veterans Day US data continues light tomorrow. Summary The USD opens New York mixed after a quiet two-way overnight session aided by non-USD cross spreading; minor economic news helped to underpin the majors as the week gets underway. Overnight China announced a large economic stimulus plan and “appropriate measures” to be taken in order to continue China’s record expansion; traders note that most of the Asian currencies were slightly weaker against the Yen and USD on the news. Equities rallied in Asia as well taking their cue from the news despite ongoing concerns of global recession; Wall Street is expected to open firmer today as well likely due to spillover effects from European bourses which are mostly higher as well. USD/JPY is the only pair holding gains this morning as demand for Yen continues; high prints at 99.49 are still below major topside pressure around the 100.00 area but traders note solid offers are likely waiting. Low prints in the rate at 98.65 so far unchallenged in early New York leaving a narrow range to start the week. Traders note reserve-manager buying of EURO/GBP today helping to lift the EURO today; higher oil and gold pricing also underpinning the rate today; high prints so far at 1.2928 with the rate firm at 1.2900 area to start New York. Traders note that EURO has stops likely building above the 1.2950 area with resistance around 1.3000 making for a potential top to start the week. GBP is solidly two-way but holding some lift from spillover in EURO; high prints at 1.5886 before sellers emerged putting the pair into the 1.5780 area in early New York. Traders note solid sales by Russians at the highs helping to cap the rate on the rally. In my view, the majors are continuing to consolidate their recent dip lower as the flight to quality USD buying appears to be mitigating. Although world credit conditions are still very tight it is beginning to show signs of loosening enough for traders to begin seeing reasons to let loose of extra USD perhaps. The majors are likely to remain in two-way trade until the end of the year as traders digest both the economic conditions as they are as well as what the new US President will bring to the table initially. In my view, the USD is setting up to decline as the US economy is likely in recession with little to do to help without a significant new stimulus. What has been done will take time to filter into the system and new plans will take time as well. Until then, the Greenback is likely to remain range bound to lower as traders attempt to make sense of the potential speed of the recovery. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6320/30 Resistance 2: 1.6250 Resistance 1: 1.6100/10 Latest New York: 1.5795 Support 1: 1.5520/30 Support 2: 1.5500 Support 3: 1.5420 Comments Cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure overnight; rate firm against USD in two-way action. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.5800 area on the way higher with offers mixed in; resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. UK PPI data was weaker but not as bad as expected; likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Trade Balance 4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2900 Support 1: 1.2520/30 Support 2: 1.2500 Support 3: 1.2480 Comments Short squeeze likely over if the rate can trade 1.3000 handle this week. Expect a rotation lower as the rate continues to consolidate in two-way action. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try. Russians buying EURO around the 1.2860 area last week traders say; offers from same likely were seen in GBP this morning. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Additional Oil rally likely will take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: http://www.forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Analysis - Daily Overnight Asia/Europe • USD follows through as expected but fails at highs • Yen crosses drive early trade in Asia • Markets expect a poor NFP number Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change • 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate • 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m • 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m • 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m • 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m Looking Ahead to Monday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • Tentative USD Assist Treasury Sec Kashkari Speaks Light day for US news—expect two-way action. Summary Yen crosses continued to pressure the majors overnight as traders saw follow-on buying of USD into early Asia. Taking the cue from EURO/JPY, GBP/JPY sold off after weaker equities started the day from yesterday’s pressure on Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 sold off to the 8260 area before staging a late rally to cut losses in half; the DJIA is called higher this morning taking some pressure off the crosses and allowing the majors to trade higher into European trade. Mostly mid-range to start New York, traders note sovereign demand in both EURO and Cable coming on under the New York lows from Thursday lifting the pairs into light stops as the majors went through the opening range. Traders note follow-on selling of Cable from the surprise rate cut by the BOE was muted suggesting the news is fully factored in; low prints at 1.5533 were not challenged after the rally and the high prints in late Europe at 1.5827 leaves a respectable range for both sides to deal with during the New York session today. US news is not expected to be USD friendly and some of the lift overnight may have been book-squaring ahead of the news. The same story was seen in EURO with the rate making lows at 1.2653 just shy of stops reported at 1.3640 area; traders note that volumes were modest but still off regular levels. High prints in the rate above the 1.2851 also giving the bulls something to work with. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip under the 1.2700 handle if we get volatility around the news today. USD/JPY continued to trade with a heavy tone despite recent USD strength from the crosses suggesting that the fundamentals may be pressuring the rate as expected. High prints at 9783 were again in range with recent highs but a new weekly low at 96.74 suggests downside pressure continues to keep the rate on the defense. USD/CHF failed to inspire new highs over the 1.1800 handle and traders report offers are heavy over the 1.1780 area suggesting the bears are still taking control of the rate; high prints at 1.1806 just barely over the Thursday highs but the rate reversed into lows at 1.1693 making for a technical hook reversal for the second time this week. In my view, the USD is poised for a retreat after NFP early this morning; bad news for the Greenback is clearly gaining more focus by traders and despite a historical tendency to rally after a new president takes office the euphoria is significantly lacking. Lower equities after the news is likely to add weight to the USD as well so look for a loss on Wall Street today. The weekend sees the G-20 meeting but don’t expect anything significant to be announced; the CB’s and the governments have done what they can to date to mitigate the financial crisis so look for more two-way action within existing ranges on Monday. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6320/30 Resistance 2: 1.6250 Resistance 1: 1.6100/10 Latest New York: 1.5785 Support 1: 1.5520/30 Support 2: 1.5500 Support 3: 1.5450 Comments Rates finds support around potential rising wedge trend line and rallies past opening range; Yen crosses provide early pressure. BOE rate cut pressures GBP also on follow-through selling but is met with sovereign bids traders say. Sellers above likely older shorts adding to positions. Drop in price likely due to players adding to positions on failure to hold gains; light stops reported on overnight rally suggesting shorts are covering. Traders note liquidity is better than last week but still low. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip overnight in both EURO and GBP; lately Asian names. Look for a test of the 1.6000 handle today or Monday. Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2784 Support 1: 1.2640/50 Support 2: 1.2580 Support 3: 1.2520/30 Comments Rate falls to support and holds as knee-jerk reaction to rate cuts is bought. Traders note large stops at the 1.2770 area cleared yesterday with lows holding above reported stops at 1.2640 area. Traders report Asian sovereigns buying EURO after Tokyo fix. Russians buying EURO around the 1.2860 area earlier this week traders say. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported building in range over the Thursday highs suggesting a potential late rally on Friday. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. If Oil rallies likely will take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias. Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 10:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: http://www.Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Analysis- Daily Overnight Asia/Europe • BOE and ECB cut rates, little reaction to the news • Yen crosses in focus as traders buy Yen • USD range bound overnight Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q • 8:30am USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 7:00pm USD FOMC Member Warsh Speaks Looking Ahead to Friday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change • 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate • 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m • 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m • 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m • 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m Summary Yen crosses were the focus overnight as the world equity markets gave back Wednesday’s gains; traders continue to buy Yen against all major pairs putting a bit of upside pressure on the USD. However, the big news today is the surprise 1.5 BP cut in interest rates by the BOE. In the statement the BOE said that inflation pressures were dropping and that the need for stimulus was apparent. The vote was probably unanimous but we won’t know that until the minutes are released later in the month. Expecting to follow suit the ECB also cut rates this morning but the amount was less; traders were expecting a 50 BP cut and the bank cut by 50 BP despite late calls for 100 BP. Both EURO and GBP fell sharply on the news but recovered quickly suggesting that the news was probably factored in despite the size of the cuts. Both pairs have fallen dramatically the past 2 months and analysts suggest that the move lower may have been overdone but warn that historically the USD rallies in the first few months of a new US president being in office. GBP high prints at 1.6035 in early New York after the rate announcement will likely be followed by higher pricing during the day. EURO fell to a low print at 1.2808 before bouncing hard to trade 1.2880; high prints remain at 1.2956 so far from European trading. USD/JPY is in a tight range today holding around the 98.50 area after posting a high print at 98.51 and lows at 97.55; traders note that offers are thick above the 100.00 area and the move higher early in the week may be the highs for the week as US data due out today and tomorrow offer little hope for a USD bullish surprise. USD/CHF is also higher likely from softer Gold prices with high prints at 1.1756 overnight and currently trading around the 1.1700/10 area to start New York before falling back a bit to 1.1670 area at this writing. A surprise rate cut by the SNB had little effect on prices. USD/CAD is bouncing off key fib support from yesterday and is trading 1.1700 area this morning; high prints at 1.1756 with lows at 1.1569 making for the largest range on the board so far today. In my view, the election of Senator Obama is having little effect on the markets at this point as traders take the view that there is a lot of work to be done to resolve the financial crisis no matter who is on office; it is likely that the forces in effect will continue to pressure the USD near-term. Look for US data today to be USD-negative as well as Friday’s data but it appears to be factored in. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6320/30 Resistance 2: 1.6250 Resistance 1: 1.6100/10 Latest New York: 1.5895 Support 1: 1.5600 Support 2: 1.5550 Support 3: 1.5500 Comments BOE rate cut fails to pressure GBP; likely factored in. Official buyers in the market lifting rate back to the psychological 1.6000 area; sellers above likely older shorts adding to positions. Fears of a large rate cut confirmed as the cut was 1.5 BP; no appreciable drop in price likely due to players already in. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.6000 area and above. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Tighter range suggests lower volatility for the day. Traders note liquidity is better than last week but still low. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip overnight in both EURO and GBP; lately Asian names. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) NONE EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2770 Support 1: 1.2520/30 Support 2: 1.2500 Support 3: 1.2480 Comments Rate falls to support and holds as knee-jerk reaction to rate cuts is bought. Traders note large stops at the 1.2770 area. Russians buying EURO around the 1.2860 area traders say. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported on a move over the 1.2900 area and rate caps at 1.2956. Stops likely cleared. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. If Oil rallies likely will take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 2:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance 2:45am EUR French Trade Balance 6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • US data shows more contraction, equities rally • USD hit hard but drop may be temporary • All eyes turn to election results Overnight Preview • Look for two-way trade and volatility • Equities may soften in Tokyo Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y • 8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change • 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Summary The USD fell hard today as the equities and commodities rallied across the board. Most major pairs were driven by Yen liquidation most desks report making this rally in the majors likely only temporary. GBP rallied for a high print at 1.6108 before liquidation pressure stopped the advance; technical traders note the highs were also capped by aggressive selling by large names likely covering early longs or adding to open shorts. EURO also rallied for a high print at 1.3030 before dropping a full handle ahead of the close. Both pairs saw stops in waves easily overcome selling through the highs. USD/JPY rallied past near-term resistance for a high print at 100.55 before falling back to the 99 handle; Yen crosses dominated lifting the Greenback as it fell against other pairs. Other USD pairs also broke lower; Loonie and Swissy both fell through support but found technical buyers into the lows. Attention now turns to the outcome of the US election with an Obama win looking likely; equities held gains as market participants see a democratic win as mildly supportive at this time. In my view, the USD fallback was likely a book-squaring move and due to the large amount of interest in the Yen today likely to recover overnight. I would look for a two-way Wednesday tomorrow and if holding open USD shorts to remain nimble as volatility is still being exaggerated by thinner conditions; although many desks reported better volumes in GBP and EURO today. Expect the USD to whipsaw the next 24 hours as traders decide what to do with an Obama win or a McCain upset. Aggressive traders could be flat ahead of the Asian open. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6320/30 Resistance 2: 1.6250 Resistance 1: 1.6100/10 Latest New York: 1.5961 Support 1: 1.5600 Support 2: 1.5550 Support 3: 1.5500 Comments Aggressive traders had their buy opp overnight as rate touched then bounced off support around the 1.5600 area; official buyers in the market lifting rate back to the psychological 1.6000 area. Fears of a large rate cut apparently not in play today. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.5780 area and above Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Large range suggests more volatility coming soon. Traders note liquidity is better than last week but still low. Aggressive traders should be flat ahead of the election results. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip overnight in both EURO and GBP; lately Asian names. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 4:30am GBP Services PMI 4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 10:30am GBP CB Leading Index m/m 7:01pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3200/10 Resistance 2: 1.3150 Resistance 1: 1.3030 Latest New York: 1.2990 Support 1: 1.2520/30 Support 2: 1.2500 Support 3: 1.2480 Comments Rate falls to support and rallies as Asian sovereigns power the rate into stops back above the 1.2700 area; high prints at long objectives so aggressive traders should flatten out. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported on a move over the 1.2900 area. Stops likely cleared. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil rallies likely took EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Coming Up Next Week: Current Forex Market Conditions - Impact of Multi Year Trend Reversals. Monday, November 10th, 15:00 GMT FREE Webinar This, Forexpros first ever webinar, will be hosted by Dr. Sivaraman from I-KnowIndices. The Webinar will focus on the following points: * USD weakening moves from mid 2006- mid 2008 * USD strengthening moves from Aug 2008 duration of such trending moves. * What is expected from now in the years to come? * Types of trend reversal moves. For more info and for your Free Registration visit at: forex[/acronym]-market-conditions---impact-of-multi-year-trend-reversals-11"]http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webin...nd-reversals-11

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Japan closed for minor holiday • US data shows recession potential growing • USD holds gains into the close Overnight Preview • Look for some follow-on USD buying • Two-way action likely on election day Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m • All Day USD Presidential Election • 10:45am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Summary The USD continued to advance today against the majors with the exception of the Yen; making new highs in New York trade into the end of day after the London fix Forex traders were expecting potential for more month-end USD buying although not on the scale seen last week and with weaker energy and equities the USD firmed all day. Finding stops below Friday’s lows the GBP and EURO both slide to session lows amid light volumes as has been the case; low prints in Cable at 1.5779 after breaching the 1.6000 psychological level with more losses due on follow through. Low prints in EURO were more subdued holding above the 1.2580 area with low prints at 1.2595 before staging a modest rebound to the 1.2640/50 area. Traders report stops helping to drive trade in the rate but also note weaker energy. Both pairs are under interest rate watch as both Central Banks meet this week with cuts across the board expected. Some analysts have the BOE cutting a full 100 BP but a 50 BP cut is likely factored in to current pricing suggesting that a 50 BP cut will disappoint the market into the end of the week. Not so well anticipated in the ECB cut with most analysts calling for a 50 BP cut but given Trichet’s hawkish rhetoric a 25 BP cut is more likely leaving the EURO/USD differential favoring a firm EURO for the month. Not so clear is what the Fed will do at the December meeting where another 50 BP cut is rumored. Despite all the potential rate moves today’s US data was decidedly bearish leaving more underlying fundamentals the USD will have to eventually price in. PMI was down and so was Construction spending although both numbers were better than expected which might have provided a bit of upside support. USD/JPY held to established overnight ranges leaving the 99.66 high print unchallenged today. Cross spreaders appear willing to buy Yen to start the week but the rate is firm into the end of day around the 99.00 area. USD/CHF rallied to the 1.1700 handle for a high print at 1.1750 before backing off as stops above the 1.1720 area get triggered. The rate is now back to the earlier highs and due for a correction lower. Aggressive traders can look to sell the rate soon. Looking ahead to tomorrow the US Presidential election will dominate trader interest. Analysts are divided as to near-term direction depending on who wins; look for more two-way action overnight with an early USD rally in Asia overnight. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6550 Resistance 2: 1.6480 Resistance 1: 1.6400 Latest New York: 1.5835 Support 1: 1.5775 Support 2: 1.5700 Support 3: 1.5650/60 Comments Rate falls back on cross-spreading reverses and fears of a large rate cut loom over traders; rate continues to correct into buy zone. Stops noted on the move lower during the day suggesting some bid interest is early. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Large range suggests more volatility coming soon. Traders note liquidity is better than last week. Aggressive traders can buy anytime on weakness but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip as semi- officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders expect follow-on selling into Asia and then possibly the bottom. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Construction PMI 7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3150 Resistance 2: 1.3030 Resistance 1: 1.2900 Latest New York: 1.2648 Support 1: 1.2600 Support 2: 1.2550/60 Support 3: 1.2500 Comments Rate two-way in solid action; bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Drop through early support finds stops and new lows attract technical selling. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported on a move over the 1.2900 area. 1.2700 handle fails to hold on a dip and stops likely cleared. Hook reversal showing from the toolbox suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate on dips. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers; conditions are right to buy on the next pullback in my view. OK to buy on a limit order. If oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 5:00am EUR PPI m/m All Day EUR ECOFIN Meeting Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex chart Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Become part of the Forexpros webinar club as they launch their first ever webinar on Monday 10th November at 3pm GMT. Hosted by Dr. Sivaraman from i-know indices, it will focus on current Forex market conditions. For free registration simply click and find out what everyone's talking about! Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • Japan closed for minor holiday • USD firm in two-way action • Yen crosses in focus, mostly for Sterling Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI • 11:00am USD Construction Spending m/m • 11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices • All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m • All Day USD Presidential Election • 10:45am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Summary The USD is mixed in solid two-way flows this morning after a muted start to the week; the Japanese markets were closed today for a minor holiday and volumes were light as a result. Forex traders note that liquidity was better, most notably against the GBP, and early trade was dominated by the EURO/JPY pair. Traders mostly on the bid for EURO overnight as most of the EURO pairs were higher; EURO high prints at 1.2899 with stops noted above the 1.2900 area and option barriers layered to 1.2950. Traders also note that semi-official names seen on the offer into the overnight highs suggesting that downward pressure may help continue a wider consolidation range. GBP had a high print at 1.6402 before selling pressure capped the rally; traders note that clearly the upside was due to cross-spreaders working the sterling crosses from the bid side. Solid two-way flows in both EURO and GBP suggest that consolidation in both pairs will continue ahead of economic data later in the week. More so as a source of near-term direction is the US presidential election on Tuesday. Traders note that either parties platform presents challenges to restoring job growth and economic prosperity. Some desks believe the USD will sell-off after the election and are positioning for that move; others feel a euphoric rally as a vote of confidence in the winner may result. In my view, it is likely that the USD will have a muted response because no matter which party wins the white house the USD focus has been on much bigger problems and either party has the work cut out for it. The USD/JPY is firm in solid two-way action as the Japanese holiday leaves many sidelined. High prints at 99.66 with lows at 98.21 making for a tight range compared to recent action. Traders note that black box systems on the offer for Yen overnight although volumes remained light. In my view, this morning is just “business as usual” for the majors. No real news is on the block for today and most traders are watching the fallout from the elections before placing a lot of faith in near-term USD direction. Most action today likely to be confined to existing ranges. Higher equities overnight may help US stocks today and possibly boost the USD but I think the ranges will hold. Look for another quiet night tonight as traders look to square-books ahead of the election. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6550 Resistance 2: 1.6480 Resistance 1: 1.6400 Latest New York: 1.6126 Support 1: 1.6000/10 Support 2: 1.5920 Support 3: 1.5800/10 Comments Rate rallies back on cross-spreading but holds under previous highs; stops noted on the move higher suggesting shorts are late. Traders note stops and unwinding of Yen cross-spreads supporting the rate. Follow-on selling finds bids at prior low. Rate reaches fib retracement and resistance areas so a pullback may be over. Large range suggests more volatility coming soon. Traders note liquidity is better than last week. Aggressive traders can buy anytime on weakness but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling/JPY lifting the rate. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Construction PMI 7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3150 Resistance 2: 1.3030 Resistance 1: 1.2900 Latest New York: 1.2827 Support 1: 1.2660 Support 2: 1.2580 Support 3: 1.2500 Comments Rate two-way in solid action; bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported on a move over the 1.2900 area. 1.2700 handle to hold on a dip the first time but stops likely building underneath. Hook reversal showing from the toolbox suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate on dips. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers; conditions are right to buy on the next pullback in my view. If oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 5:00am EUR PPI m/m All Day EUR ECOFIN Meeting Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com