ForexAnalysis

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • Majors rally on G-7 plan • Governments add liquidity and guarantees • Technical factors assist the major’s rally Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism • 12:30pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks • 2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m • 1:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks • 2:00pm USD Beige Book Summary Despite a bank holiday in the US yesterday and low volumes the USD is beginning to show signs of topping against the majors. The G-7 meeting over the weekend has inspired confidence in the financial sector due to the response by the affected governments to assist the bailout. Led by Germany and the UK, the US announced additional measures to restore liquidity to the banking sector. Hundreds of billions in cash is being guaranteed by the major central banks including inter-bank lending, deposits, and customer obligations. Although the full impact of the plans will not be known for some time the confidence level of traders around the world is rising and slowly volume and liquidity is returning the FOREX markets. Equities markets around the world are rallying on the news with a record rise in the DJIA yesterday in holiday trade. The USD is weaker against the GBP, EURO, CAD and CHF from Friday’s close and higher against JPY as risk-aversion mitigates across the board. Cable is back trading on the 1.7500 handle to open New York today after a high print at 1.7606 overnight. Traders note that the heavily oversold market is correcting technically against the cross-rates as well and more time is needed to see if there is a firm bottom in the rate near-term. EURO is also higher with a high print at 1.3753 in early New York; traders report good buying by large names previously on the offer the past week suggesting at least some short-covering. Technical analysts suggest that a close this week back above the 1.3880 area signal a near-term bottom but whipsaw in both EURO and GBP is expected as the full impact of the bailout programs need to be better understood before the USD is heavily sold-off. USD/JPY is higher benefiting from unwinds of risk-aversion activity lately; traders note that offers above the markets are mixed with stops making for potential two-way trade as the USD attempts a return to the 103.00 handle; high prints overnight at 103.08. USD/CHF is lower; high prints overnight at 1.1338 but opens New York around 1.1270 area. USD/CAD had a massive rally on Friday that apparently was completely unrealistic as today the rate is a solid 6 big figures off the highs; opening New York at 1.1350 area after a high at 1.2127 Friday; traders note offers are thick on rally’s and the toolbox has signaled a reversal. In my view, the USD has turned the corner on this recent strength. Expect the majors to whipsaw a bit as traders settle back into a “sell USD” mode the next few weeks. Aggressive traders can look to buy dips in the Greenback this week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7720 Resistance 2: 1.7680 Resistance 1: 1.7630/40 Latest New York: 1.7593 Support 1: 1.7440 Support 2: 1.7380 Support 3: 1.7300 Comments Rate recovers after announcement by G-7 and central banks, likely to pullback to support around the 1.7380 area for a buy point. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate. New Lows around the 1.6800 area likely to draw additional bids, traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle will likely help the longs. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Volumes lighter after the open. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index y/y 4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3880 Resistance 2: 1.3820 Resistance 1: 1.3780 Latest New York: 1.3738 Support 1: 1.3580 Support 2: 1.3520 Support 3: 1.3480 Comments Cross-spreading is mitigating and EURO/JPY is recovering driving support for EURO; bailout plan is likely to fuel recovery. Two-year low on a Friday likely a bottom near-term. Rate at a buy point, OK to buy the next dip. Aggressive traders can add to open longs on a close over the 1.3700 area. Pullback under the 1.3400 handle this week on lighter volume would be a great buy in my view. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil two-way spills over into pricing; weaker oil helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 5:00am EUR CPI y/y 5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Traders remain unsure what rate cut means • Volumes remain lighter • “Sharp” buyers seen on both sides Overnight Preview • Look for more two-way action • USD likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 1:30pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks All Day for everybody G7 Meeting. Summary Volatility was the rule of the day today; equities were both sides of unchanged as was oil. The Greenback ended mixed on the day as investor confidence remains wary of recent developments on the banking front. The historic coordinated rate cut by the world’s major central banks has left traders with additional fundamentals to sort out and at this point most are confused as to what will be the result moving forward. Traders note that “sharp” buyers were seen on both sides of the USD today suggesting that more volatility and two-way action will likely be the case. On the day the GBP fell as cross-spreaders bought Yen and EURO for Sterling forcing non-USD pairs lower. Cable slipped under the 1.7300 handle for low prints on the day at 1.7260 before profit-taking bids were seen lifting the rate back over the 1.7300 handle.Forex Traders note that volumes still remain softer and that may have exacerbated the move lower; the close today under the previous low from yesterday leaves the GBP vulnerable to more technical selling in my view. Aggressive traders can look for a buy point the next 24 hours as the market is heavily oversold in my view. EURO rallied for a new weekly high at 1.3755 before profit-taking by early longs dropped the rate back into the 1.3670 area but the rate is closing near the weekly opening range suggesting more upside is likely to end the week. Traders note stops above the 1.3740 area suggesting that late shorts are attempting to sell rallies in the EURO. USD/JPY is sharply lower having dropped to a 98.58 low print over night before rallying back to trade above the 100.00 area; traders note stops at the 99.50 area on the way down twice today suggesting that in addition to profit-taking bids there is some interest in buying the sharp drop by intraday longs. USD/CHF is off the overnight highs by two full handles for a low print in late New York at 1.1210 before bouncing slightly to the 1.1250 area. Traders note stops under the 1.1270 area in size suggesting late longs were buying from Monday’s rally. In my view, the volatility is whipsawing traders and risk appetite is still low. In the long run the USD will suffer more losses as the underlying weakness in the economy becomes center-stage after the credit crisis is mitigated. Near term risk on the USD is to the upside in my view and aggressive traders need to look at the sell-side of the Greenback moving forward; although ranges may be larger. Look for the USD to whipsaw overnight as two-way trade continues and volumes remain light until traders can digest what the recent fundamentals mean moving forward. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8180 Resistance 2: 1.8050 Resistance 1: 1.7880 Latest New York: 1.7309 Support 1: 1.7260 Support 2: 1.7220 Support 3: 1.7200 Comments Rate is lower in response to rate cut, dips likely to be bought. Hook reversal from yesterday negated late. Stopped out of both potential buy points today; aggressive traders can look to the buy side again the next 24 hours as the rate is oversold in my view. Volumes lighter after the open. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s and spillover from EURO likely to be lighter after EURO holds gains today. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Trade Balance Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement 7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3900/10 Resistance 2: 1.3880 Resistance 1: 1.3800/10 Latest New York: 1.3679 Support 1: 1.3540 Support 2: 1.3500 Support 3: 1.3450/60 Comments Rate firmer on news, makes highs in New York late. OK to look at the buy side on weakness to the bottom of the range. Pullback to the 1.3400 handle this week on lighter volume. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil weaker helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market but those likely remain out of range today; some triggered on the move over the 1.3740 area. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin 7:00pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD remains range-bound • Traders see two-way action and stops as the main event today • Fundamentals being ignored in favor of rhetoric Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to back and fill ahead of US news tomorrow • Expect current ranges to hold Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 7:45am USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks • 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Summary The USD is mixed to end New York after a solid two-way session driven mostly by active buying and selling. Although stops were triggered for part of today’s volatility in most pairs, the majors remained inside established ranges for most of the day. Today’s fundamental news was benign and not market-moving; traders remained focused on how global leaders will attempt to restore confidence to the financial system. Finance leaders today meeting in Luxemburg made a token gesture to guarantee bank deposits up to 50K EURO in the Eurozone but most traders saw that as only a minor step. Most are looking toward a US Fed rate cut sooner rather than later with some calling for a rate cut this week. The Fed increased the lending window using the TAF program to include more potential securities or collateral but the markets appear heavily focused on a rate cut by the Fed as well as other Central Banks. While waiting for that to happen the major pairs remained whippy inside established ranges and remained two-way all day. GBP rose to a high print at 1.7660 in early trade before backing off to the 1.7500 area and slightly below; traders note stops both ways during the day. EURO rallied in sympathy with Cable for a high print at 1.3744 before falling back as well; traders note that the lows of 1.3479 are a technical low suggesting that the larger range today off the lows may be a near-term bottom. In my view, the USD is severely over-bought near-term and a long-liquidation break is likely soon. I like buying the EURO and the GBP on dips and the markets should give us at least one try this week. USD/JPY whipsawed all day first making highs overnight at 103.30 before dropping back to trade under the 101.70 area; the rate rallied hard on news that the RBA had cut rates but sellers were active at the highs. In the USD/JPY the threat of a coordinated rate cut scenario by the three largest CB’s is keeping the Yen well-bid; traders expect more losses by the USD/JPY near-term. In my view, the USD is setting up for a break lower—keep vigilant and be ready to move on further USD strength. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8180 Resistance 2: 1.8050 Resistance 1: 1.7880 Latest New York: 1.7493 Support 1: 1.7310/20 Support 2: 1.7280 Support 3: 1.7200 Comments Rate is two-way on the way down to trade under support around the 1.7300 area; volumes better and traders note large names on the bid possibly covering shorts. Rate is likely heavily over-sold. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s and spillover from EURO. Aggressive traders can buy this dip around the 1.7380 area; look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term. Two-way action likely near-term; heavy focus on bailout plan. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. OK to buy any time in my view. Let price orders work near-term. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m 5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 10:30am GBP CB Leading Index m/m EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3900/10 Resistance 2: 1.3880 Resistance 1: 1.3800/10 Latest New York: 1.3623 Support 1: 1.3480 Support 2: 1.3440 Support 3: 1.3400 Comments Rate has inside range day but rallies on news of potential rate cut; OK to look at the buy side on weakness to the bottom of the range. Pullback to the 1.3400 handle on lighter volume. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil weaker helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market but those likely remain out of range today. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. A bottom is due soon but the question is where. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:45am EUR French Government Budget Balance 2:45am EUR French Trade Balance 6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Stops and active selling drive majors to new lows • USD/JPY falls to parity • Volumes only moderate Overnight Preview • More follow-on selling expected • USD likely to consolidate Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 11:00am USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks • 1:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks • 2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes • 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m Summary Traders are buying USD in size as flight to quality fears pervade a global meltdown in the financial sector. Equities were off over 800 points in late trading as the DJIA drops under the 10,000 level; NASDAQ off under the 1800 area leaving that market at a ten-year low. Oil off as well trading under the $90.00/BBL level as traders fled commodities as well. Of course the USD rallied as value was re-adjusted leaving the major currencies falling hard with the exception of USD/JPY; USD/JPY dropped over 600 points for a low print at 100.22 as equities fell off leaving the Yen as the reserve currency today. GBP and EURO fell hard as well with both pairs well below technical levels considered important for continued gains against the USD suggesting that the USD has more upside to go; although that is remote as there are few buyers left after a move like this. GBP fell to a low print at 1.7335; EURO low prints at 1.3453. Forex Traders note that sentiment is so overwhelmingly fearful of counterparty risk that there are no buyers for the majors despite price levels that only six months ago would be considered dirt-cheap. In my view, the USD is acting as a flight-to-quality recipient to the point that no one will buy anything else. In a situation like this it is almost impossible to find a bottom in the majors as traders have little to base a price fix on because the markets are trading with so little common-sense; everyone is panicking to the point that no one will let go of their USD and will only look to buy more. I think it is important to remember that in a trading environment like this there will be some incredible values coming around the block soon. When the process of USD flight to quality ends the USD will become more vulnerable than it likely has been in 50 years. No matter your personal point of view today, this rally in the USD is not sustainable in my view and you need to be ready to sell the Greenback soon. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8180 Resistance 2: 1.8050 Resistance 1: 1.7880 Latest New York: 1.7433 Support 1: 1.7340 Support 2: 1.7280 Support 3: 1.7200 Comments Rate is two-way on the way down to trade under support around the 1.7300 area; volumes lighter and traders note large names absent. Rate is likely heavily over-sold. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s and spillover from EURO. Aggressive traders can buy this dip; look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term. Two-way action likely near-term; heavy focus on bailout plan. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. OK to buy any time in my view. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m 4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3900/10 Resistance 2: 1.3880 Resistance 1: 1.3800/10 Latest New York: 1.3518 Support 1: 1.3440 Support 2: 1.3400 Support 3: 1.3380 Comments Rate fails overnight at the two-year 50% fib defense at 1.3850 after a volatile start; pullback to the 1.3400 handle on lighter volume. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil weaker helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market but those likely remain out of range today. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. A bottom is due soon but the question is where. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 9:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD has consolidative overnight • Traders await House vote on TARP • Majors possibly at support Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change • 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate • 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m • 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Looking Ahead to Monday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 1:30pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Light day across the board for Monday next week. Summary After a strong showing yesterday the USD is slightly weaker across the board this morning as traders await NFP and the House vote on TARP. Despite general bullish enthusiasm for USD volumes are light into New York trade and traders report stops above the market overnight suggesting that shorts are protecting gains. Overnight data was lower than expected; UK services PMI was 46.0 providing traders with another reason to sell GBP but the rate is holding the 1.7700 handle in early New York; high prints at 1.7738 in late European trade. Tracking the GBP slightly higher, EURO high prints at 1.3902 as light stops in-range at 1.3850 area were triggered; traders note volumes in both EURO and GBP were light overnight no doubt due to uncertainty over the news due out today. USD/JPY remains under pressure as demand for Yen crosses keeps the pressure on the USD; low prints at 104.85 saw light stops under the 105.00 handle but bids from importers held the rate off the lows. Traders note that Japanese data has been benign the last few days and most are waiting for news on the TARP vote. In my view, the USD has over-extended its upside move the past week or so and a correction lower is likely in the works for the end of the week today. All eyes are on the TARP vote this afternoon and the markets will be closed when the house votes; traders most likely will square positions ahead of the vote as most will not want to take a large risk over the weekend. In my view, the majors will likely rally next week if certain technical levels are met during today’s trade; most particularly I think the EURO needs a close over the 1.3850 area for the major fib defense to hold as a potential bottom. USD/JPY has rumored stops under the 104.40 area near-term suggesting that a break lower is possible today should the market focus on US data or be disappointed in the TARP vote. There is still a potential for the house to vote down the TARP plan although traders feel very confident that the bill will pass; a “no” vote will likely break the USD lower early next week. Look for the USD to remain consolidating most of today; I don’t think NFP will provide any surprises and traders will likely ignore the news preferring to wait for the House vote. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8180 Resistance 2: 1.8050 Resistance 1: 1.7880 Latest New York: 1.7662 Support 1: 1.7550 Support 2: 1.7500 Support 3: 1.7420/30 Comments Rate is two-way and holding support after Thursday’s slide. Rate is likely heavily over-sold. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering around the double-bottom lows for Sept. US news started the move no doubt but traders say light volumes may be exaggerating the move; some spillover from EURO also likely. Aggressive traders can buy this dip; look for a recovery back to the 1.8600 handle near term. Two-way action likely near-term; heavy focus on bailout plan. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling by model accounts traders say. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. OK to buy any time in my view. Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m 7:01pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4000/10 Resistance 2: 1.3950/60 Resistance 1: 1.3900/10 Latest New York: 1.3845 Support 1: 1.3740/50 Support 2: 1.3720/30 Support 3: 1.3700 Comments Rate holds at the two-year 50% fib defense at 1.3850; rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops building above the market but those likely remain out of range today. Support at the 1.4330 area fails hard suggesting a point of resistance on the recovery, traders report semi-officials names on the bid. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Likely a dip back to the 1.4000 handle will offer a solid buy opportunity. Expect huge volatility if TARP fails to pass the house. Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD covers the same ground twice in two-way action • Volumes modest • Traders remain focused on bailout options Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to remain two-sided • Potential to rally increasing Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m • 10:00am USD New Home Sales • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 1:00pm USD FOMC Member Warsh Speaks • 7:30pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks • 7:45pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks Summary The USD is on the offensive this afternoon although volumes are light and trade seems driven by rhetoric and technical factors. Forex Traders remain nervous over the delay in passing the bailout bill and adding insult to injury today’s testimony by Paulson and Bernanke on Capitol Hill has been largely a repeat of yesterday’s discussion suggesting that legislator’s are dragging their feet or just plain need to have something told to them twice. Equities have been two-sided as have been traditional hedges such as gold and bonds. Traders note that if much more “talking” instead of “acting” were to continue then investor confidence may begin to turn south. GBP continued to trade within existing ranges but had a sharp break lower mid-day as the USD had a rally late; low prints at 1.8474 are still a healthy 10 handles off the lows but the charts are looking a bit bearish this afternoon. EURO suffered the same breaking back to new lows in New York trade for a low print at 1.4628; traders note that stops were triggered on new lows in both pairs suggesting that late longs were buying dips. USD/JPY tried for a new high but has encountered strong resistance at the 106.20/30 area as the pair rallied back from low prints in New York at 105.34 to trade 106.10 late in the day. This kind of whipsaw is to be expected but the key thing is for the rate to hold under the 106.30 area in my view. Swissy rallied as well making new lows this morning then bouncing to new highs this afternoon; high prints at 1.0915 were offered by technical traders but more whipsaw is expected. Across the board the Greenback is under duress as technical factors favor two-way trade but fundamentals favor lower prices; today’s existing home sales again showed a decline but as expected traders are remaining focused on the bailout plan. Should congress fail to reach at least a reasonable agreement the next 24 hours I think the markets will vote “no confidence” in any plan by early next week. Despite the recent rally in the majors a pullback is to be expected and with the uncertainty it would be reasonable to expect large volatility near-term. If holding USD shorts it is wise to either lighten up or go flat completely. Look to exploit a USD rally by selling into the move should the USD have a retracement. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8700 Resistance 2: 1.8680 Resistance 1: 1.8620/30 Latest New York: 1.8512 Support 1: 1.8480 Support 2: 1.8420/30 Support 3: 1.8380 Comments Rate two-way overnight, remains near unchanged to open New York; two-way action continues. Some selling pressure seen but rate is likely to press for highs on more bad news. Resistance is cleared the other side of the 1.8500 handle so expect a pullback to be bought hard. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip but also look to lighten longs into the 1.8700 area if it comes. Equities pullback vote of “no confidence” so far on the bailout. Possible sovereign interest on the rally as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active buying. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no serious down move near-term. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Close above the 1.8500 area for the week likely argues for another leg higher to end the month. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 8:40am GBP MPC Member Barker Speaks EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4800/10 Resistance 2: 1.4780 Resistance 1: 1.4710/20 Latest New York: 1.4627 Support 1: 1.4620/30 Support 2: 1.4580 Support 3: 1.4550 Comments Late pullback on technical factors; some spillover from GBP. Rate two-way and dips are being bought, follows GBP higher but lots of stops and active buying seen. Light pressure intraday easily absorbed despite fear of pullback. Weekly high below major resistance and rate is inside range so far today suggests a point of indecision. Likely support will hold at the 1.4330 area. Some upside drawn from Cable no doubt. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Volumes better during European trade than in Asia overnight. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically but likely this rally forced techies to the sidelines. Close over the 1.4700 area to end this week will make a lot of shorts nervous next week possibly extending a short-covering rally. Expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Likely a dip back to the 1.4300 handle will offer a solid buy opportunity. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD rallies in US trade after starting weaker in Asia • Two way technical trade the rule today • Traders note volumes were moderate Overnight Preview • Look for more consolidation • Two-way action likely Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00am USD Existing Home Sales • 10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 2:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Summary The USD is slightly better today as traders continue to digest the effects and solutions to the recent financial crisis affecting global trade. Debate is raging on Capitol Hill regarding exactly how to implement the fiscal bailout plan proposed by the US treasury and the Federal Reserve. Sentiment is leaning more toward an emergency plan sooner-rather-than-later and if the US congress fails to act decisively and confidently by the end of the week it is likely that investor confidence in a solution will begin to wane. In response the Greenback opened better overnight and built on small gains into US trade and then as equities failed to hold gains began to slide off. Traders note that stops in most pairs were triggered during US action suggesting that many had set new USD shorts overnight or early today when the USD failed to hold gains but were whipsawed on minor price action. GBP railed for a high print overnight at 1.8636 before dropping back and made lows on the day in New York at 1.8470 before attempting a recovery back to the middle of the range. Traders note volumes were modest but enough to cause some intraday volatility. EURO followed cable lower during the day for a low print at 1.4621 before returning to the 1.4700 handle later; traders note that in both pairs a “buy the dip” mentality is currently in play but no one is certain how far a correction from recent strength may go. End result is that traders are nervous and unwilling to hold positions for too long leaving the markets vulnerable to intraday whipsaw. USD/JPY rallied for a new high in New York at 106.09 before dropping back to the low 105.00 handle; traders note technical resistance at the 106.00/20 area appears firm on the first try at a bounce. Other pairs are suffering the same fate as the USD/JPY; Swissy is off the rally highs at 108.15 with a high print at 1.0891. Traders note that the USD/CHF pair has made a perfect retracement to the breakdown point of 1.0880 before sliding off suggesting that the rate will likely suffer a move back to the lows around the 1.0700 handle. USD/CAD is falling back from its highs as well and looks almost certain to break the 1.0500 handle near-term; traders note that a lot of offers were absorbed in that pair suggesting that there is a lot of technical buying of support in Loonie. In my view, the USD is likely to continue two-way and cover a lot of the same ground twice but with a lower bias. Best action is to sell rallies in my view. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8700 Resistance 2: 1.8680 Resistance 1: 1.8620/30 Latest New York: 1.8573 Support 1: 1.8480 Support 2: 1.8420/30 Support 3: 1.8380 Comments Rate two-way overnight, remains near opening range into the close. Some selling pressure seen but rate is likely to press for highs on more bad news. Resistance is cleared the other side of the 1.8500 handle so expect a pullback to be bought hard. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip but also look to lighten longs into the 1.8700 area if it comes. Equities pullback vote of “no confidence” so far on the bailout. Possible sovereign interest on the rally as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active buying. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no serious down move near-term. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Close above the 1.8500 area for the week likely argues for another leg higher to end the month. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 4:45pm GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4920/30 Resistance 2: 1.4880 Resistance 1: 1.4850 Latest New York: 1.4701 Support 1: 1.4620/30 Support 2: 1.4580 Support 3: 1.4550 Comments Rate two-way and likely tracking GBP a bit; follows GBP higher but lots of stops and active buying seen. Light pressure intraday easily absorbed despite fear of pullback. New weekly high yesterday below major resistance and rate is inside range so far today suggests a point of indecision. Likely support will hold at the 1.4330 area. Some upside drawn from Cable no doubt. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Volumes better during European trade than in Asia overnight. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically but likely this rally forced techies to the sidelines. Close over the 1.4700 area to end this week will make a lot of shorts nervous next week possibly extending a short-covering rally. Expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Likely a dip back to the 1.4300 handle will offer a solid buy opportunity. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 4:00am EUR Current Account 4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD goes one way, biggest daily loss in years • Stops and active selling seen • Volumes better later in the day Overnight Preview • Look for follow-on selling • Likely a quieter night as many are sidelined Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies • 10:00am USD HPI m/m • 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index Summary The USD bulls got their horns sawed off today as the Greenback is set to have its worst one-day loss since 2001; traders note that ongoing uncertainty with the US bailout of the banking sector, weaker equities in response to the crisis and soaring Crude Oil prices combined to give the USD a knock-out punch today. Falling to the worst levels on the day near the close traders hold little hope for anything more than a “dead cat bounce” over the next few days and many USD bulls have moved to the sidelines as support after support numbers got trashed. GBP rallied three big figures off the Asian lows scoring a high print at 1.8593; tracking EURO higher. Trader’s note that stops were triggered at each new high and active bids reported from official sources suggesting that the rate has a change in the underlying psychology; aggressive traders can buy shallow dips with confidence I think. EURO rallied as well knocking off a whopping four big figures from the lows for a high print at 1.4819 in late New York; traders note the same buyers all day and liquidity was good after the London fix. Aggressive traders can buy shallow dips but both EURO and GBP are looking very toppy and after a move like today a retracement with high volatility is due. USD/JPY broke back through the 200 day MA to find good size stops on the break back under the 106.00 handle; new lows accelerated for a low print late New York at 105.29 finding stops under the 105.50 area in size traders say. The rate had patchy volume early but once equities dropped late in the day active sellers emerged in addition to resting orders. Swissy has dropped through support as well for a low print at 1.0735; Loonie found big stops under the 1.0420/30 area for a low print at 1.0313 as active selling overwhelmed the fragile bulls. In my view, today’s action suggests that the underlying USD weakness has reasserted itself for the larger fundamental issues facing the US economy. Although a retracement is expected and likely will be larger due to the range today, it is unlikely that the USD bulls have the muscle to attempt to take control of the currency. Look for follow-on selling overnight and whipsaw after today’s one-way action. Technical traders will likely stand aside as well making for lighter trade unless the panic that hit equities starts to hit the Greenback. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8680 Resistance 2: 1.8620/30 Resistance 1: 1.8590/1.8600 Latest New York: 1.8612 Support 1: 1.8250/60 Support 2: 1.8200/10 Support 3: 1.8180 Comments Rate rallies all day, resistance is cleared the other side of the 1.8500 handle so expect a pullback to be bought hard. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip. Equities pullback vote of “no confidence” so far on the bailout. Possible sovereign interest on the rally as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP this morning; some stops triggered along with active buying. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no serious down move near-term. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Close above the 1.8500 area for the week likely argues for another leg higher to end the month. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4920/30 Resistance 2: 1.4880 Resistance 1: 1.4850 Latest New York: 1.4833 Support 1: 1.4420/30 Support 2: 1.4380 Support 3: 1.4320/30 Comments Rate launches off the lows and never looks back; follows GBP higher but lots of stops and active buying seen. Makes a new weekly high; resistance is cleared so any dip is a buy opportunity. Likely support will hold at the 1.4330 area. Some upside drawn from Cable no doubt. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Volumes better during the day than in Asia overnight. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically but today’s rally likely forced techies to the sidelines. Close over the 1.47000 area to end this week will make a lot of shorts nervous next week possibly extending a short-covering rally. Expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Likely a dip back to the 1.4300 handle will offer a solid buy opportunity. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 5:00am EUR Industrial New Orders m/m 9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD under pressure starting in Asia • Two-way technical trade with large names on the bid for EURO • Volumes and orders picking up a bit from last week Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 11:30am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Very light day for the USA and for our trading partners; expect quiet trade. Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies • 10:00am USD HPI m/m • 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index Summary The USD is lower to start New York this morning as traders and investors await the details of the US bailout of the banking industry; confidence is lower in the Greenback today due to the underlying weakness in the financial sector that the bailout won’t necessarily address. Focus is high on where equities will trade as other financial markets around the world implement a “no short sale” rule of some kind. Oil prices are sharply higher above the $106.00/BBL level and regardless of recent bearish sentiment and optimism that the oil crisis is correcting the bull is very much alive. The Yen is again the strongest currency on the board rising against most major pairs; USD/JPY traded for a low print at 105.94 before bouncing back to the 106.40 area. Traders note sell orders active at the 107.00/10 area from Japanese lifers and exporters overnight, analysts suggest that the rally back from the 103.00 handle has completed at the 108.00 area last week and more potential downside is possible; perhaps grudgingly admitting that the USD is not in the bull mode. Cable has rallied along with EURO extending to the upside for a high print at 1.8478 putting 10 big figures in off the lows from only two weeks ago; traders note stops above the weekly high triggered. EURO high prints at 1.4627 also saw stops above the 1.4600 area; traders note semi-official demand off the Asian lows overnight. Rhetoric from the BBK and ECB officials are leaning to a firm interest rate picture near term leading to underlying support for the EURO so far to start the week. Both EURO and GBP are tracking each other closely as has been the custom the last several weeks suggesting that the move is correlated to a weaker USD and not to individual bullish sentiment from either rate; traders note that order books have thickened up over the weekend suggesting more risk-aversion and speculation will play out this week—possibly from the potential sale of Lehman to a Korean investor. In my view, the USD is becoming less attractive until the issue of the US bailout is secure in the minds of traders. Once things settle down moving forward the underlying stress on the US economy and high energy pricing will likely bring bearish pressure to the forefront. Look for technical trade to continue today and the USD to end lower. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8520/30 Resistance 2: 1.8500 Resistance 1: 1.8470/80 Latest New York: 1.8414 Support 1: 1.8250/60 Support 2: 1.8200/10 Support 3: 1.8180 Comments Rate firms again to start the week; resistance is cleared ahead of the 1.8500 handle so expect a pullback to be bought hard. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip. Equities rally possibly to extend on US news creating whipsaw potential. Possible sovereign interest under the 1.8150 area as semi-officials seen on dips in EURO this morning; some stops triggered both ways traders say. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no serious down move near-term. Cross spreaders seen active on the sell side but volumes lighter. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Close above the 1.8500 area for the week likely argues for another leg higher to end the month. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4690/1.4700 Resistance 2: 1.4650 Resistance 1: 1.4620 Latest New York: 1.4587 Support 1: 1.4420/30 Support 2: 1.4380 Support 3: 1.4320/30 Comments Rate follows GBP higher and also makes a new weekly high; resistance is cleared so any dip is a buy opportunity. Likely support will hold at the 1.4330 area. Some upside drawn from Cable no doubt. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Volumes better during the day in Asia. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Close over the 1.47000 area to end this week will make a lot of shorts nervous next week possibly extending a short-covering rally. Expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Likely a dip back to the 1.4300 handle will offer a solid buy opportunity. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 5:00am EUR Industrial New Orders m/m 9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • US data benign, no help to the USD • Capital infusion seems to calm the markets • Volumes fair Overnight Preview • Look for book squaring • USD to consolidate Looking Ahead to Friday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • NONE in the US Summary The USD continued to suffer selling pressure today as concern for the health of the US financial system continues. Traders note that volumes were lighter and at times thinner but for the most part orderly. Most pairs suffered volatility across the board as traders looked to non-USD pairs and risk aversion to balance portfolios. Leading the pack was the Yen continuing to gain on cross-spreading and carry trades; high prints in USD/JPY were sold aggressively helping the pair down to a new low on the day at 103.97 before seeing solid bids underneath. The rate closes out New York around the 104.50 area after trying for a top above the 105.00 handle. Swissy suffered a rout across the board as Gold climbed back near the $900 handle; lows in the rate at 1.0899 went unchallenged during late trade but the pair finishes in the bottom of the range at the 1.0980 after highs above the 1.1100 handle. Traders note that re-balancing of portfolios likely caused the rush to safe-haven buying. GBP continued to advance holding above the 1.8200 handle for a high print earlier in the day at 1.8279; traders note that rumors of a BOE rate cut coming soon have been trashed and the rate continues to trade in sympathy with EURO. EURO climbed to a new weekly high at the 1.4542 high print but drew offers on technical selling; traders note volumes were fair and the rate is expected to build on the recent strength for a try at the 1.4600 handle near-term. Across the board as equities whipsawed and Oil whipsawed traders kept an eye out for more Fed action to help with the crisis in the financial sector. A large cash-infusion overnight from the G10 CB’s helped quiet fears of an outright meltdown but the good news is that the worst of the storm is past for now. Cash liquidity has stabilized most markets with the USD appearing to suffer slightly in the process. With the new credit changes and the liquidity offered it appears that the USD will likely continue to trade sideways in a large range. Confidence will likely take longer to develop leaving the USD vulnerable to further declines. No news on the block for tomorrow suggesting that if there is a rally in the Greenback it will be to square books ahead of the weekend. Expect the majors to drop a bit to end the week but additional advances are likely next week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8350 Resistance 2: 1.8300/10 Resistance 1: 1.8270/80 Latest New York: 1.8131 Support 1: 1.8080 Support 2: 1.8020/30 Support 3: 1.7980 Comments Rate continues rally, cross spreading also noted. Late sell-off due to equities rally. Possible sovereign interest under the 1.8150 area this morning; some stops above the 1.8150 area. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no additional down move near-term. Cross spreaders seen active on the sell side but volumes lighter. OK to buy the rate the next 24 hours and I would look for a dip under the 1.7830 area for the buy but that looks unlikely after the rally has extended late week. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held last Friday, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Short-covering rally may be over due to sharpness of the move. Close back above the 1.8100 area likely turns the rate positive. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4610/20 Resistance 2: 1.4580 Resistance 1: 1.4540/50 Latest New York: 1.4297 Support 1: 1.4250 Support 2: 1.4180 Support 3: 1.4080 Comments Rate rallies away from support, some upside drawn from Cable no doubt. Late break again likely from equities rally. Expect more two-way action but the next dip could be larger after rally extends late week. Traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Some sympathy trade from GBP; volumes better during the day in Asia. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market likely beginning to correct oversold condition with this rally; close over the 1.4500 area can’t be ruled out this week. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Remaining US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw but expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Likely a dip back to the 1.4200 handle will offer a solid buy opportunity. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German PPI m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: ]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • US data seen as USD-negative • Volumes improve as majors rally • Some new weekly highs as USD wilts across the board Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to continue lower • Whipsaw possible to end the week Summary The USD continued lower across the board today after equities failed to respond positively to government steps taken to restore confidence; DJIA was down over 300 points at mid-day and remained deeply in the red into the final hour of forex trading today. US housing data continued to show weakness in the housing sector but traders were unconvinced that the slightly lower numbers indicate a potential bottoming in the troubled housing markets. Finding stops on a breakout higher, GBP and EURO rallied to new daily and weekly highs as the USD wilted further during New York trade; GBP high print at 1.8245 dragging EURO higher for a high print at 1.4385 before selling from longs capped the move into the afternoon. Traders note that volumes improved during the day and order-flow was considered orderly. USD/JPY remained inside existing weekly ranges but managed a low print at 104.36 before recovering slightly to trade the 105.00 handle late; traders note cross-spreading was the main driver of volatility during the day today. Swissy extended weekly losses to a 1.0992 low print before bouncing slightly as the technical picture suggested an objective from the highs may have been reached; traders note that the rate has likely been pressured from the advance in Gold. Oil prices advanced today as well which likely supported the EURO and pressured equities but the market is still below the psychological point of $100/BBL at $97.00; traders note that higher prices will likely support EURO through the end of the week. The one higher performer on the board was USD/CAD scoring a 108.11 high print before reversing hard to fall back under the 107.00 handle to close lower on the day; traders note the rate had aggressive selling into the highs by large names. In my view, today’s USD action significantly underscores the fundamental weakness of the USD despite the recent euphoric rally. Traders note that volatility has been very high and the majors continue to respond with higher action suggesting that the dips will continue to be bought near-term. Look for the USD t0 continue lower overnight and through the end of the week. Tomorrows US data is the last for the week so expect Friday to be volatile as traders will likely cover open trades to end the week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8350 Resistance 2: 1.8300/10 Resistance 1: 1.8250 Latest New York: 1.8196 Support 1: 1.7730 Support 2: 1.7620/30 Support 3: 1.7580 Comments Rate rallies hard as stocks wilt, cross spreading also noted. Sovereign interest under the 1.7850 area this morning lifted into stops above the 1.8100 area. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no additional down move near-term. Cross spreaders seen active on the sell side but volumes lighter. OK to buy the rate the next 24 hours and I would look for a dip under the 1.7830 area for the buy but that looks unlikely after the rally today. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held last Friday, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Short-covering rally may be over due to sharpness of the move. Close back above the 1.8100 area likely turns the rate positive. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:00am GBP MPC Member Dale Speaks 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4480 Resistance 2: 1.4430 Resistance 1: 1.4380/90 Latest New York: 1.4336 Support 1: 1.4080 Support 2: 1.4000/10 Support 3: 1.3940/50 Comments Rate rallies away from support, some upside drawn from Cable no doubt. Expect more two-way action but the next dip could be larger after today’s rally. Traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Some sympathy trade from GBP; lows likely in finally from last week. Volumes better during the day. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market likely beginning to correct oversold condition with this rally; close over the 1.4500 area can’t be ruled out this week. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. Remaining US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw but expect a solid higher close for the week. If long, look to add to positions on any weakness. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Also Check our Forex Brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • As expected, Fed leaves rates on hold • USD recovers a bit as stocks rise • AIG still overshadows market sentiment Overnight Preview • Look for more USD weakness tonight • Two-way trade likely Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Building Permits • 8:30am USD Current Account • 8:30am USD Housing Starts • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Summary As expected, the US FOMC held rates steady and barely changed the policy statement today leaving the markets to sort themselves out as traders continue to debate direction of the economy and the health of the financial sector. Massive speculation continues to be both positive and negative regarding the fate of AIG today; traders note the stock has dropped under the $3.00/share area for most of the day with its fortunes intraday resting largely on which rumor you listen to. As focus was largely on equities today almost no one noticed the fall in oil prices; dropping to under the $92.00/BBL for most of the day before finishing slightly higher. With all the focus on banking and equities the USD was largely left to play follow-the-leader today as the Greenback continued to trade cautiously and on very light volumes traders say. Despite economic news from overseas suggesting better conditions in the EURO-zone and stable conditions in the UK the USD continued to gain against both EURO and GBP today with both rates pressing to lows after the release of the FOMC rate announcement. Lows in GBP under Monday’s lows were bought back hard leaving the rate well off the lows into the close but traders say lack of liquidity is exaggerating the moves. Low prints today at 1.7734 before rallying back to near the 1.7900 handle. EURO fell to 1.4072 before seeing bids again after holding above the 1.4200 handle for most of the day; volatility was high again and traders expect more the next day or two but with today’s long buying wicks in EURO and GBP the lows for the week may be in. USD/JPY fell to a low print of 103.53 leaving the really big stops under the 103.50 area intact for now and after the release of FOMC rallied two full handles for a high print at 106.01 before dropping back. Most of the action in Yen crosses has kept the rate pressured today and more losses in USD/JY is expected but with s close above the 105.50 area the analysts will get confused as volumes were light; look for more whipsaw near-term. In my view, the Fed doing nothing was likely the wrong move and I think with no signal from the Fed either it shows a potentially unresponsive Fed. Expect the criticism for Bernanke’s leadership to grow moving forward. In my view, the USD has had no real benefit for an advance today; poor economic news today and more due tomorrow. Expect the USD to weaken overnight and into the end of the week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8200/10 Resistance 2: 1.8130 Resistance 1: 1.8080 Latest New York: 1.7854 Support 1: 1.7730 Support 2: 1.7620/30 Support 3: 1.7580 Comments Despite the news today and the Fed action the rate remains near opening range after briefly dipping earlier. In my view, the GBP has weathered the storm fairly well and it suggests no additional down move near-term. Cross spreaders seen active on the sell side but volumes lighter. Rate two-way but firm on dips; traders note bids still absorbing offers on the breaks. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held last Friday, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Price drop today likely sympathy selling from EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Short-covering rally may be over due to sharpness of the move. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.7780 area needed to take some of the pressure off. Corrective drop is a buy opportunity in my view. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index y/y 4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4550 Resistance 2: 1.4380 Resistance 1: 1.4300 Latest New York: 1.4125 Support 1: 1.4080 Support 2: 1.4000/10 Support 3: 1.3940/50 Comments Rate breaks hard on whipsaw but recovers to trade back near mid-day ranges. Traders note the rate is firm on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Some sympathy trade from GBP; lows likely in finally from last week. Bids are supporting on dips. Volumes light but that is to be expected. Lots of stops from shorts and longs seen overnight suggesting whipsaw is likely today. Two-way trade and whipsaw result in increased volatility. Stops Friday suggesting bottom-picking is still being tried by early longs. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market is continues heavily short now so expect a further leg higher. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 5:00am EUR Trade Balance Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Financial crisis intensifies as Lehman fails • More bailouts on the table • Volumes dry up after the open Overnight Preview • Look for continued volatility • USD to weaken further Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m • 8:30am USD CPI m/m • 9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions • 10:00am USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks • 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index • 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement • 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate Summary It’s been a wild ride in the markets today from anyone’s perspective; most notably the equities meltdown on Wall Street thanks to the panic surrounding the failure of Lehman Bros. and the potential failure of the insurance giant AIG. Speculation is raging with the “too big to fail” mentality so my question is “Why is the Fed involved?” Forex trader’s note that almost lost in the day’s action is Oil dropping below the psychological $100/BBL price level to finish the day in the $95 handle. Although most analysts agree a price fall in Oil is welcome the jury is still out as to how much this represents a panic liquidation by traders to meet financial obligations elsewhere or just outright fear by the longs. In the case of the USD, the Greenback has suffered huge volatility the past 24 hours and more is expected as the closed-door negotiations continue on possible bail-out options available for the financial markets. To end the day the USD is mixed, marginally higher against GBP and EURO while ending lower against Yen and Swissy. Traders note that after the initial panic long-liquidation seen overnight Asia the USD stabilized and traded within tight ranges during New York. Also noted were the lighter volumes and patchy order flows as stops were cleared both ways intra-day leaving traders willing to sit on their hands until more data is known. GBP traded to a high print at 1.8130 overnight before dropping to trade the 1.7900 handle for most of the day; cross spreading for EURO and Yen was heavy and the GBP will likely see more whipsaw near-term. EURO also rallied hard in Asia for a high print at 1.4482 before falling back as well; ending the day around the 1.4200 handle after posting lows in New York at 1.4083 as the opening panic continued to spook traders. For the most part, the speculation that the Fed will need to cut rates unexpectedly tomorrow helped hold the USD on the softer side as late longs bailed during early Monday’s trade. In my view, today’s market environment and near-term volatility is a once-in-25-year event. Wise traders will make use of this volatility carefully but if the continuing financial crisis continues to unfold with the current level of panic the fortunes of the USD do not look bullish in my view. Look to buy dips in the GBP and the EURO the next day or so as the Greenback will likely continue to fall; most likely hard against the Yen in my view. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8200/10 Resistance 2: 1.8130 Resistance 1: 1.8080 Latest New York: 1.7993 Support 1: 1.7760 Support 2: 1.7620/30 Support 3: 1.7580 Comments Rate explodes to the upside and runs all bids out; falls back to open lower in New York. Buy dips is the preferred strategy in my view. Cross spreaders seen active on the sell side but volumes lighter. Rate two-way but firm on dips; traders note bids still absorbing offers on the breaks. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held last Friday, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Price drop today likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Short-covering rally may be over due to sharpness of the move. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.7780 area needed to take some of the pressure off. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP CPI y/y 4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y 4:30am GBP RPI y/y Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4550 Resistance 2: 1.4380 Resistance 1: 1.4250 Latest New York: 1.4293 Support 1: 1.4080 Support 2: 1.4000/10 Support 3: 1.3940/50 Comments Rate rallies hard, some sympathy trade from GBP; lows likely in finally from last week. Bids are supporting on dips. Bounce out of the drop on better volume traders say, lots of stops from shorts seen overnight as well as panic bids. Two-way trade and whipsaw result in increased volatility. Stops Friday suggesting bottom-picking is still being tried by early longs. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market is continues heavily short now so expect a further leg higher. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 5:00am EUR CPI y/y 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Also Check our Forex Brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com/

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • PBOC cuts interest rates • Lehman goes bust • USD falls hard, volatility high Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index • 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate • 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m • 8:30am USD CPI m/m • 9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions • 10:00am USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks • 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index • 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement • 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate Summary The USD fell sharply overnight driven lower by continuing market turmoil and uncertainty in global financial markets; main story is the filing for bankruptcy protection by Lehman Brothers adding more fuel to the fear of a market meltdown. Although BoA has agreed to purchase the troubled brokerage firm forex traders don’t see the issue as resolved due to the large exposure other firms have to both Lehman stock and counterparty transactions. Stocks of major brokerage firms are called to open sharply lower in New York when equities open later today and with the potential panic that could hit the street it would be likely that the USD will suffer more volatility. Overnight the USD fell to two-month lows against the Yen dropping to a low print of 104.52 before recovering slightly; news that the PBOC cut interest rates and reserve requirements helped propel the Yen higher although the USD/JPY whipsawed with high volatility as would be expected on a surprise announcement. USD would have fallen farther in my view if the Asian markets would have been open; Japan, China and Korea all closed for a holiday today. I would expect more follow-on selling of the USD/JPY in the coming days; the rate opens New York at 105.20 area. GBP gapped higher and ran for a high print of 1.8130 before aggressive sellers capped the move and reversed the pair; traders note that most of the move was short-covering and panic buying from the news released. After scoring the high prints the rate reversed to fill the gap dropping back for a low at 1.7820 at the start of New York trade. Dragged in both directions by GBP volatility, EURO rallied into large stops as well for a high print of 1.4482 before reversing; low prints in early New York at 1.4119 making a mess of balance sheets. Traders note that cross-spreaders have been hitting the non-USD crosses hard on the buy side suggesting that the volatility is not limited to only USD; the global economic slowdown affects everyone and the cross-rates are being hit as well suggesting a flight out of USD-based assets. Oil is off sharply as well today suggesting that more conflicting news is on the way but in my view, lower energy is not driving trade; panic is driving trade as late USD longs get squeezed. Look for the USD to continue all over the board the next few days. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8400 Resistance 2: 1.8130 Resistance 1: 1.7950 Latest New York: 1.7801 Support 1: 1.7680 Support 2: 1.7550 Support 3: 1.7420 Comments Rate explodes to the upside and runs all bids out; falls back to open lower in New York. Buy dips is the preferred strategy in my view. Cross spreaders seen active on the sell side but volumes lighter. Rate two-way but firm on dips; traders note bids still absorbing offers on the breaks. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support has held last Friday, any weakness likely to be bought hard. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Price drop today likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Short-covering rally may be over due to sharpness of the move. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.7780 area needed to take some of the pressure off. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP CPI y/y 4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y 4:30am GBP RPI y/y Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4550 Resistance 2: 1.4380 Resistance 1: 1.4250 Latest New York: 1.4117 Support 1: 1.4020 Support 2: 1.3900 Support 3: 1.3820/30 Comments Rate rallies hard, some sympathy trade from GBP; lows likely in finally from last week. Bids are supporting on dips. Bounce out of the drop on better volume traders say, lots of stops from shorts seen overnight as well as panic bids. Two-way trade and whipsaw result in increased volatility. Stops Friday suggesting bottom-picking is still being tried by early longs. Traders report offers in size being absorbed. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 5:00am EUR CPI y/y 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD rallies a bit but still below recent highs • Gives back some gains in late New York • Volumes lower Overnight Preview • Look for USD to trade softer overnight • Should get quiet ahead of US data in the morning Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Trade Balance • 8:30am USD Import Prices m/m • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 2:45pm USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks Summary The USD continues to advance on low volumes and light stops as the EURO finds a new low for the week at 1.4011; Forex traders note that the Greenback appears ready to vault the 1.4000 area but sellers are getting scarce. With OPEC announcing production cuts and another hurricane bearing down on the US major energy hub, traders are disappointed the Oil market hasn’t rallied more than a few cents leaving EURO ready to try for lows. Although sentiment is bearish and prices have edged to a new 2008 low the single-currency is drawing light bids on the approach to 1.4000 area. GBP followed EURO lower for a low print at 1.7537, well off the weekly lows, suggesting that the GBP has more bid interest than EURO at this point. Cross spreading is evident as traders adjust positions ahead of US data due tomorrow. Aggressive traders can buy EURO on an attempt to make lows under the 1.4020 area. USD/JPY rallied off the 100 bar MA for a high print at 107.95 but offers capped the move under the 50 bar MA suggesting that the USD/JP is trading two-way and offering an opportunity to get short on rallies. Technical traders note that volumes have been light on the rally making for a potential whipsaw the next 24 hours. Swissy has rallied as well matching the recent weekly highs at 1.1370 high prints but the volume is low traders say. Loonie has also attempted to make a high close over the 1.0700 handle; high prints at 1.0746 but giving back a sizable amount into the close. Loonie looking for another close under the 1.0700 handle at 1.0690 area. As expected, the USD did in fact extend its range today but USD bears were disappointed that the move was a rally ahead of the London fix. In my view, the USD is really over-extended to the upside and the continuing lack of volume on the move higher combined with the retreat from the highs suggests that the USD is indeed topping. Further gains will likely be difficult with more USD-negative news due the next 48 hours; look for another two-way overnight session with the USD backing off slightly in Asia. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7800 Resistance 2: 1.7750/60 Resistance 1: 1.7700 Latest New York: 1.7549 Support 1: 1.7550/60 Support 2: 1.7510/20 Support 3: 1.7480 Comments Rate two-way but firm on dips; traders note bids absorbing offers at a slightly higher area around 1.7550 zone. Traders note stops mixed with offers above the market also. Major support numbers still are coming into view. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.7780 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP BOE Inflation Attitudes 4:45am GBP MPC Treasury Committee Hearings EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4280 Resistance 2: 1.4250 Resistance 1: 1.4220 Latest New York: 1.4029 Support 1: 1.4000/10 Support 2: 1.3960 Support 3: 1.3920/30 Comments Rate makes new low on light volume and attempts to recover; short squeeze likely soon. Rate unable to advance as yet but dips are bid. Two-way trade and whipsaw result in increased volatility but still no breakout one way or the other. Traders note macro accounts selling the rate; most likely they are late. Stops suggesting bottom-picking is still being tried by early longs. Traders report offers in size being absorbed but whipsaw likely scared out both sides the past two days. Rally to high print on good volume but bottom still not secure. Likely stops rolled down to around the 1.4220 area now after new low yesterday. Likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 4:00am EUR ECB Bulletin 2:00pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Also Check our Forex Brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • US data no help for the USD • Volumes patchy at times • Traders say no one wants to play Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to soften overnight • Book-squaring may ignite a short-covering rally in the majors Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Light day for US data, heavier overseas. Summary The USD continues to trade two-way today attempting to extend recent gains but turned back from new highs. Traders note volumes have been patchy at times as the major’s attempt a recovery; most pairs unable to rally significantly from Monday’s action. Today’s US Housing data continued to show weakness and some desks report no activity after the news that would be considered noteworthy. With the recent advance by the greenback appearing to falter at current highs it is becoming increasingly likely that the USD will suffer at least a corrective pullback as traders stand clear of adding to long positions. GBP was unable to press for lows in New York trade today and extended the potential recovery to a high print of 1.7709 before offers capped the move. Traders say cross spreading for non-USD Sterling pairs has contributed to intraday volatility; GBP back almost a full handle lower to close around the 1.7630 area in very light trade. The lack of volume seems to suggest that buyers are scarce but short covering appears to be the rule today. EURO had a volatile day as well tracking GBP both ways after scoring a minor new low overnight; traders note stops in both pairs may have contributed to some upside today and the EURO was able to score a New York high at 1.4227 before dropping back in sympathy with GBP. USD/JPY remained under pressure all day unable to hold the 108.00 handle dropping into the 106.00 handle for a low print at 106.82 before bids supported; traders say the Yen is being heavily bought on the crosses for Sterling and EURO suggesting that the USD/JPY pair will continue to meet with upside resistance on any attempt to rally. USD/CHF also attempted highs at 1.1366 before being turned back to make lows on the day at 1.1214 but was unable to tag stops said to be resting around the 1.1200 handle and slightly below. Aggressive traders can look to add to open shorts in USD/CHF on a close below the 1.1200 handle in my view. On the day, traders note that volumes were better overnight and the poor US data was adding to the USD’s woes today; lower Oil prices likely adding a bit of support to the USD but that support will likely be short-term at this point. With the USD facing the first few days it has not been able to extend gains it is apparent that a potential long-liquidation break is developing. Look for the USD to soften again overnight on follow-on selling. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7800 Resistance 2: 1.7750/60 Resistance 1: 1.7700 Latest New York: 1.7591 Support 1: 1.7450/60 Support 2: 1.7410/20 Support 3: 1.7380 Comments Rate two-way but firm on dips; traders note corporate bids on the drop to the 1.7520 area. The move was stop-driven and traders note stops above the market also. Major support numbers still are coming into view. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.7780 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Trade Balance 10:30am GBP CB Leading Index m/m EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4280 Resistance 2: 1.4250 Resistance 1: 1.4220 Latest New York: 1.4111 Support 1: 1.4050/60 Support 2: 1.4000/10 Support 3: 1.3960 Comments Rate unable to advance as yet but dips are bid; two-way trade and whipsaw result in a minor technical new low but bids are ready on dips. Traders note macro accounts selling the rate; most likely they are late. Stops suggesting bottom-picking is still being tried by early longs. Traders report offers in size being absorbed but whipsaw likely scared out both sides the past two days. Rally to high print on good volume but bottom still not secure. Likely stops rolled down to around the 1.4400 area have been cleared leaving the rate vulnerable to retracement. Likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 2:45am EUR French Trade Balance 3:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check Forex Charts Section. Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD rallies after Government bails out housing • USD cuts gains by end of day • Possible head-fake brewing Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to weaken overnight • Should get quiet ahead of US data Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 9:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks • 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism • 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m Summary The USD continued its overnight advance today making fresh highs in most pairs during US trade with the exception of the Yen.Forex traders note that volumes into the highs were light and order flow was patchy suggesting that the USD may be again reaching for an extreme price level before a much-needed corrective break. Stops were the main driver in most pairs as early longs in the majors were taken out; with most pairs rallying back slightly into the close. GBP fell to a new multi-year low at 1.7468 just tagging our stops from longs set this morning; the rate rallied back a full handle from the lows leaving a buying wick suggesting the rate may have finally made an exhaustion low. Traders note that the initial rally to the 1.7977 high was on better volumes suggesting that the rate will remain two-way the next few days as traders attempt to re-set longs and shorts attempt to press their advantage but order boards have been wiped clean after the very large 500 point range today. EURO tracked GBP lower as well eventually breaking under the 1.4100 handle again taking out our longs set this morning; low prints at 1.4053 were on low volume and stop driven. Traders note that speculation is high that the EURO could test below the 1.4000 handle soon but the recent hard fall and lack of relief rally suggest that at the very least shorts will cover on such a move leaving the rate vulnerable to a sharp rally. USD/JPY was unable to rally and ended the day well off the highs and below the 50 bar daily MA. Traders note that the Yen is benefiting from cross-liquidation making the USD/JPY vulnerable to further losses this week. Swissy rallied to clear stops for a high print at 1.1375 on stops but offers were able to cap the move significantly and the rate fell back to the 1.1320 area as enthusiasm for further gains evaporated. In my view, the USD’s response to today’s government-sponsored bailout of the housing market has effectively drawn in more USD buyers but with both price and sentiment reaching the extreme end of the range it seems that today may have put the highs in for the week. Failure to follow-through will no doubt cause many to stand aside that normally would be buyers; look for the USD to soften overnight tonight. Tomorrow’s US data is not expected to be friendly and with the equities market unable to hold gains as well it looks like a massive head-fake for USD strength in my view. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7970/80 Resistance 2: 1.7900 Resistance 1: 1.7850 Latest New York: 1.7567 Support 1: 1.7450/60 Support 2: 1.7410/20 Support 3: 1.7380 Comments Rate firms into the close but still way off the highs; further losses expected but volumes were light on the drop and the move was stop-driven. Major support numbers still are coming into view. Stops noted both ways overnight. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Hook reversal from the toolbox still valid. Price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.7780 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4420 Resistance 2: 1.4380 Resistance 1: 1.4330 Latest New York: 1.4129 Support 1: 1.4050/60 Support 2: 1.4000/10 Support 3: 1.3960 Comments Although we were stopped out the rate is very close to a bottom as suggested by the almost one-full handle rally off the low and no re-test of the traded low. Stops suggesting bottom-picking is still being tried by early longs. Traders report offers in size being absorbed but whipsaw likely scared out both sides overnight. Rally to high print on good volume but bottom still not secure. Likely stops rolled down to around the 1.4400 area have been cleared leaving the rate vulnerable to retracement. Likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. Traders suggesting that the rate is trading technically. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that more stops are cleared a rotation higher is even more likely. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for more whipsaw. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Trade Balance Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Broker Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com/analysis

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD fails to extend gains • Majors make highs in New York • BOC keeps rates firm Overnight Preview • Look for follow-on selling Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change • 8:30am USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 8:30am USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q • 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 1:40pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Summary After a firmer start the USD has given back some of its gains today after minor US data failed to inspire further gains; technical factors also likely helped the majors stay the course of further erosion. Despite recent weakness the majors were able to stage an intraday rally during the New York session and close well off their lows after making highs during the day after the London fix today. Although a reversal is not quite underway the signs that the USD rally may at least take a pause during the next 24 hours are beginning to show. Cable rallied off the European lows for a high print at 1.7842 before sellers capped the move. Traders note a potential short squeeze could develop should new highs happen during the next day or two. EURO rallied as well for a high print at 1.4533 before sellers capped the move but the same result is possible should a rally extend past the 1.4550 area traders say. Although no major factors could support today’s action most analysts are suggesting that oversold conditions may result in a relief rally near-term. USD/JPY fell on stops for a low print at 108.09 and failed to attract additional buying on the dip ending the day near the lows and possibly in position to challenge the weekly lows around the 107.70 area. USD/CAD broke back as well printing a low print after the BOC rate announcement at 1.0576 drawing an additional reversal signal from the toolbox; traders note that unless the rate can manage another high above today’s high this week the rate has likely put in a double-top on the longer term charts. Swissy also reversed during the day making the USD a coordinated move lower across all the major pairs. In my view, the USD is overdue for a corrective rally and depending on the quality of that rally it might be resuming the overall longer-term bearish scenario. I would look for a net-lower overnight session in Asia tonight and with a lot of potentially bearish data due during the US session tomorrow it is likely that the USD will end lower on the week from here. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7950 Resistance 2: 1.7900 Resistance 1: 1.7850 Latest New York: 1.7769 Support 1: 1.7660/70 Support 2: 1.7620/30 Support 3: 1.7600 Comments Rate showing signs of bottoming, light stops noted above the market. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Overnight volumes lighter traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.8020 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement 7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4600 Resistance 2: 1.4550 Resistance 1: 1.4530 Latest New York: 1.4500 Support 1: 1.4370/80 Support 2: 1.4350 Support 3: 1.4300 Comments Rate showing signs of bottoming as well, likely stops rolled down to around the 1.4550 area. Likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Volumes not impressive on the move traders say. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. EX reversals are now negated near-term; Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Most of the action was this morning • USD holds gains but weakens into the end of day • Traders note profit-taking bids in the majors Overnight Preview • Likely a bout of short-covering due • Quiet ahead of US data Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y • 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m • All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales • 2:00pm USD Beige Book Summary After a strong overnight session the USD held overnight highs across the board failing to extend the current rally during US forex trade today; as expected ISM data came in neutral-to-weaker giving the Greenback a bit of a pause this morning. Although trading at significant highs to start the week the USD has failed to attract aggressive new buying traders say and in fact has given back some gains to make lows for the New York session against Swissy; other pairs remain mired in two-way action. Cable bounced nicely off the early NY lows for a full handle before settling back; traders note stops were the main driver of the rate. Following Cable was EURO naturally; also making NY highs above the 1.4540 area the rate fell back in quiet two-way action as well. Despite the large drop in Oil the EURO was able to hold important support at the 1.4460/70 area so far today and traders note that both GBP and EURO were seeing signs of stabilizing; both pairs continued to see profit-taking bids on the drops all day. USD/JPY has gone nowhere today making all its moves overnight and failing at the 109.00 handle to close in the 108.70 area; traders note that the resignation of Fukuda overnight was largely a non-event. For the most part today the Greenback remained inside the ranges established in the first few hours of early NY today; despite a rally in stocks and a slight recovery in oil the majors were simply not going anywhere after the day got started. On the block tomorrow the major news is likely to be the Beige Book but traders do not expect anything in there to either favor or hurt the USD. Analysts remain convinced the US economy has more sideways consolidation or even retreat to go first before a significant amount of data is seen to inspire confidence in a recovery. Traders look for the USD to remain under upward pressure but admit that the USD is due for a correction. In my view, the majors are overextended to the downside and are showing signs of a near-term bottom. With sentiment favoring further declines yet an overextended technical picture it seems reasonable that a relief rally is due soon. Look for the USD to trade sideways tonight ahead of US data tomorrow. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8120/30 Resistance 2: 1.8080 Resistance 1: 1.8000/10 Latest New York: 1.7830 Support 1: 1.7780 Support 2: 1.7740/50 Support 3: 1.7720 Comments Despite sharp drop during holiday trade the rate is attracting bids from larger names traders say; price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Overnight volumes lighter traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.8020 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m 4:30am GBP Services PMI 5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4630 Resistance 2: 1.4600 Resistance 1: 1.4550 Latest New York: 1.4512 Support 1: 1.4460/70 Support 2: 1.4420 Support 3: 1.4400 Comments Sympathy selling from GBP and lower oil drives rate into large stops under the 1.4550 area; likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Volumes not impressive on the move traders say. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. EX reversals are now negated near-term if a close today is under previous support at the prior low of 1.4570 area. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 5:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Forex Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD rallies as commodities drop • Stops drive trade • Japan PM Fukuda resigns Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI • 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m • 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y • 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m • All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales • 2:00pm USD Beige Book Summary The USD is sharply higher this morning as FX trading gets back to full swing after the Labor Day holiday in the US. Sharp falls in commodity prices most notably Crude Oil after damage from hurricane Gustov is expected to be light is driving USD bids this morning; Forex traders note most of the action appears to be resting stops. All pairs saw option related defense on the rally but the USD is trading at new highs for the quarter so far to start New York. Cable has dropped to a low print at 1.7780 despite profit-taking bids as stops fired off under the 1.7900 handle. Traders report selling has been in sympathy with EURO as that rate breaks through reported major bids; Cable now set to challenge the 1.7740 area as momentum favors the bears but traders note that large names have been seen buying on the dip to the 1.7810 area. EURO has a low print at 1.4465 despite the presence of Swiss private bank buys above the market on the break. Traders also note Russian names on the bid as well. EURO fell through stops layered under the 1.4550 area and traders note sympathy selling along with Cable making you wonder which pair is leading on the break; traders note the sharp $7.00/BBL fall in crude prices as having the most effect on pricing so far this morning. After an early start to the downside USD/JPY has rallied along with other pairs during late Asia with little initial reaction to the resignation of PM Fukuda last night; traders note that the low prints saw light buying but the offers were not there after the lows at 107.76 traded in Asia leaving the rate under reversal; traders report Asian Reserve Managers selling USD across the board but unable to stop the rise higher. Exporters and option defense noted as well as the rate rallied to the 108.80 area for a high print in late Europe at 108.95. Swissy has also rallied hard to trade the 1.1100 handle. High prints at 1.1133 saw stops trigger above the 1.1080 area and the rate is firm above the 1.1100 handle for now. USD/CAD has traded back to the recent highs forming a double-top at the 1.0720/30 area before falling back; traders note that the rate appears to be tracking oil as well. For the first day of September the USD is on the offense across the board most likely as a vote of confidence that energy prices are falling. Despite the large amount of selling interest on the move the momentum is with the bulls today. With poor US data expected this week it will be unlikely that this rally can hold in my view. Look for topping action on lower volume the next 48 hours; the Greenback has likely run its course for the week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8120/30 Resistance 2: 1.8080 Resistance 1: 1.8000/10 Latest New York: 1.7845 Support 1: 1.7780 Support 2: 1.7740/50 Support 3: 1.7720 Comments Despite sharp drop during holiday trade the rate is attracting bids from larger names traders say; price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Overnight volumes lighter traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.8020 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m 4:30am GBP Services PMI 5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4630 Resistance 2: 1.4600 Resistance 1: 1.4550 Latest New York: 1.4512 Support 1: 1.4460/70 Support 2: 1.4420 Support 3: 1.4400 Comments Sympathy selling from GBP and lower oil drives rate into large stops under the 1.4550 area; likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Volumes note impressive on the move traders say. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. EX reversals are now negated near-term if a close today is under previous support at the prior low of 1.4570 area. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 5:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky Also Check our Forex Charts Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD whipsaws with conflicting data • Traders note volumes thin again • US data inconclusive Overnight Preview • Look for more two-way action • Should get quiet ahead of US data in the morning Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage Big day for news with our trading partners, expect some whipsaw. Summary The Greenback suffered another day of whipsaw today failing to extend recent ranges in thin trade. For the most part, USD traders are looking ahead to more conclusive news due overnight and tomorrow from both our trading partners and here in the US. After failing at highs overnight, the USD managed to recover and try for new highs in most pairs but failing to reach into the zones of reported stops to the upside while traders watched for news on other markets; such as oil and equities. Oil prices managed to whip EURO around making new lows for the US session but failing to reach into real money interest under the 1.4600 handle; overnight lows continued to remain unchallenged in US trade. Holding the 1.4700 area into the close is encouraging to the bulls but the big news will be US GDP tomorrow; traders are looking for a revision upwards but likely will wait for a test of the 1.4600 handle before making a move. GBP continued under pressure with EURO for most of the session moving under the 1.8400 handle to test the low 1.8300’s but volumes are thin traders say. A brief look under the 1.8300 area for a low print at 1.8283 was enough for stops to be triggered but the rate is back in the 1.8330 area into the close suggesting that bids are there but light so far. USD/JPY failed to rally and hold the 110.00 handle again for the 7th day in a row suggesting that offers remain thick at the highs; trades note that tonight’s Japan data may encourage more volatility. Swissy rallied again into the 1.1000 handle but failed late in the day suggesting that offers are thick in that pair also. Aggressive traders can sell above the 1.0980 area for a break lower to end the week. USD/CAD rallied as well but again was unable to attract bids and remained mired in the 1.0400 handle under the zone of offers said to extend into the 1.0530 area for now. In my view, today was just another day of two-way action with the exception of the GBP; look for the USD to fail again overnight and test the bottom of the range ahead of US data in the morning. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8650 Resistance 2: 1.8600 Resistance 1: 1.8530 Latest New York: 1.8349 Support 1: 1.8280/90 Support 2: 1.8250 Support 3: 1.8220 Comments Only pair to fall to a new low but volumes light on the move suggesting overshoot. Rally back in sympathy with EURO. Overnight volumes better traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO suggesting that the USD will be pressured for both pairs near-term. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally finding a low print. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion dip and the rate will recover soon. Look for a bottom the next 48 hours. OK to stand aside but I want to wait just a bit before buying. So far, two-way trade is suggesting GBP is overextended. Close back above the 1.8580 area argues for further gains; aggressive traders can buy the close but again I would wait just a bit. Stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 6:00am GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized 7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4880/1.4900 Resistance 2: 1.4800 Resistance 1: 1.4760/70 Latest New York: 1.4723 Support 1: 1.4570 Support 2: 1.4550 Support 3: 1.4520/30 Comments Rate bounces back as close-in stops drive trade; remarks from ECB encourage a round of short-covering. If rate can hold above the 1.4750 area on the close good chance of follow-on buying to end the week. EX reversal overnight suggest tie to buy a new dip under the 1.4700 handle (?). Oil firmer likely to help upside, this is a buying opp in my view but we need to wait through US data this morning. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Also Check Our Forex Brokers Section http://www.forexpros.com

Read the Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD fails to extend overnight strength • Volumes better • Stops close-in result in two-way action Overnight Preview • Look for more two-way action • USD is getting “tired” I think Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m • 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Summary To finish today the USD is off its highs against all pairs but still in positive territory against EURO and GBP; Forex traders note that volumes were better today but that might have been due to Oil’s wild ride pulling in smaller day-trading type accounts. Volatility was high earlier when the majors made highs against the USD in the New York session but all the pairs are finishing more in the mid-range making today’s trade a bit more inconclusive. Sentiment is still favoring the USD near-term and with a lighter calendar to end the week the potential for continued two-way trade is higher. As discussed yesterday, short-term accounts have had a lot more opportunity while the longer position accounts have had to hold through whipsaw. EURO is lower and unable to hold the 1.4700 handle after a try earlier in the day; traders note that technicians are expecting a further drop into the low 1.4500 handle soon but in my view, that would be a buying signal. Shorts were seen liquidating on the break and should further declines be in the works look for low-volume drops followed by higher volume rallies soon. Tomorrow’s Oil inventory data likely to cause a bit of volatility in that market which will likely spillover into EURO and GBP. Cable was also unable to hold the 1.8400 handle on the earlier recovery making for a bit more challenging trade in that pair from the long side. Today’s FOMC minutes late in the day was little help for the GBP bulls as a recovery in that pair needs a steady-to-dovish Fed policy and no hints of that were seen in the minutes. USD/JPY continues to grind sideways and under resistance after failing at the highs again today; stops as expected were seen on the dip into New York lows on the day but bids supported at the same previous level making for another round of two-way trade. USD/CAD is looking weaker and lows at 1.0410 are just shy of the reported large stops under the 1.0400 handle. Tomorrow’s Durables data may be enough to drop that rate into stops but the recovery back to the mid-1.04’s shows the bulls are still trying to take control after the large drop last week. In my view, it’s another day of business as usual making the USD bulls a bit more bold. If there is no upside follow-through on durables tomorrow the highs for the week may be in and a correction in the majors can continue. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8650 Resistance 2: 1.8600 Resistance 1: 1.8530 Latest New York: 1.8391 Support 1: 1.8320 Support 2: 1.8290/1.8300 Support 3: 1.8250 Comments Big drop in sympathy with EURO, negates hook reversal and stops drive trade. Finishes better than the open so there is some bid interest coming in. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally finding a low print. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion dip and the rate will recover soon. Look for a bottom the next 48 hours. OK to stand aside but I want to wait just a bit before buying. EURO dropping forced rate into stops traders agree. So far suggesting GBP is overextended. Close back above the 1.8580 area argues for further gains; aggressive traders can buy the close but again I would wait just a bit. Stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4880/1.4900 Resistance 2: 1.4800 Resistance 1: 1.4760 Latest New York: 1.4648 Support 1: 1.4570 Support 2: 1.4550 Support 3: 1.4520/30 Comments Rate falls into stops layered close in and accelerates on thinner volumes. Low prints from active selling at 1.4570; rate makes a six-month low and traders report profit-taking bids. Oil retreats also helping to pressure rate, this is a buying opp in my view but we need to wait 24 hours. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • The USD unable to hold gains in NY • Volume a bit better than Friday, stops drive a lot of trade • Oil pushes Greenback around as do equities Overnight Preview • Look for tow-way action overnight • USD may be overextended to the upside so expect downside bias Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y • 10:00am USD Consumer Confidence Index • 10:00am USD New Home Sales • 10:00am USD HPI m/m • 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index • 2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes Summary The USD is weaker against the majors to end New York after starting a bit better overnight Asia. Forex traders note that volumes were thin overnight and most of the day but once the USD began to move lower after the London fix the volumes increased a bit. The lack of economic news certainly helped with the thinner conditions and today’s Housing Data was no help for the USD bulls even though sales were better-than-expected; after an initial brief rally the USD fell to lows on the day after the release of the news. Cable rallied to a high print at 1.8592 making for a large range on the day and creating a hook reversal but gave back some of those gains to end near the 1.8520 area in slower trade. Earlier stops were under the 1.8500 and 1.8450 area for lows in Asia but professional buying was noted off the lows traders say suggesting that the near-term bottom is in for the rate. EURO fell and rallied in tandem with GBP today but remaining in a tighter range; low prints in Europe at 1.4695 were never challenged in New York and the rate rallied to make highs at 1.4809 before falling back to the 1.4750 area; stops have been triggered at the 1.4750 area on the rallies and on the dips suggesting that the 1.4750 area is the near-term pivot point. Aggressive traders can look to add to their open EURO longs the next 24 hours or so as the two-way action is likely to continue making dips under the 1.4750 area and above the 1.4690 area solid buying opportunities. USD/JPY found stops as expected on a break of the 109.40 area for a low print at 109.01 but the rate was able to recover a bit and close near the 109.30 area. Although the USD is lower and expected to make more lows should additional US data this week remain weak; the USD/JPY needs a significant move under the 108.00 handle for a monthly reversal to form. In my view, the Greenback will likely remain two-way the next several days providing a lot of opportunity for short-term traders. The recent rally in the USD is over-extended I think and a correction is overdue. Look for the USD to remain two-way overnight and into tomorrow’s data. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8720 Resistance 2: 1.8680 Resistance 1: 1.8620 Latest New York: 1.8515 Support 1: 1.8400/10 Support 2: 1.8350 Support 3: 1.8320 Comments After all of today’s action the rate ends about where it started this morning after making highs later in the day. Rate falls to a new low overnight but volumes are thin due to the holiday; likely an exhaustion dip and the rate will recover soon. Hook Reversal on the day, look for a bottom the next 48 hours. OK to stand aside but I want to wait just a bit before buying. EURO holding firmer despite a lower open. So far suggesting GBP is overextended. Rumors of a Lehman Brother’s bailout from a Korean source may be blowing over. Close above the 1.8580 area argues for further gains; aggressive traders can buy the close but again I would wait just a bit. Stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4880/1.4900 Resistance 2: 1.4850 Resistance 1: 1.4800/10 Latest New York: 1.4748 Support 1: 1.4690/1.4700 Support 2: 1.4650 Support 3: 1.4620 Comments Although rate is off the highs it is holding firm against the USD. If oil retreats expect a pullback but that is a buying opp in my view. Stops in the 1.4750 area cleared on the way lower but holding above there suggests a buy the dip mentality; next level is still above the 1.4900 handle most likely. Support solid in my view at 1.4700 area now; grind in two-way action is good but we want higher volumes on rallies to form this bottom. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Consumer Confidence 2:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com/analysis

Read The Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two-way, holds ranges • Traders report light volumes on the drop • Late selling drops USD lower Overnight Preview • USD likely to have two-way action overnight • Should get quiet ahead of US data in the morning Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD Leading Index m/m • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage Big day for news across the board; expect some potential whipsaw. Summary Despite a falling Oil market and a weak Gold market today, the USD was unable to extend gains again after a mid-day rally that looked like highs might score after the London fix. All the majors had rallied a bit ahead of light economic news and minor follow-on bids overnight that were turned back as the Greenback regained some poise and Equities moved higher. RHS interest in EURO at the London fix failed to provide downside pressure and heading into the end of the day the EURO is back on the offensive but still lower on the day. Forex trader’s note that the break into new lows on the day was on light volumes suggesting that the last group of late shorts has ponyed-up leaving the rate vulnerable to a rally the next 24-48 hours. Low prints were at 1.4671 and light stops reported under the lows of the day previous around the 1.4690 area suggesting that some early longs were wrong-footed. As Oil rallied back to positive territory taking EURO with it the other majors also saw a recovery from the lows seen earlier. Cable advanced back above the 1.8600 handle as shorts covered; traders note that cross-spreading for other sterling pairs helped to support the rate. Cable now has three solid buying wicks the past several sessions arguing for a near-term bottom around the 1.9560 area. USD/JPY regained the 110.00 handle for most of the day but as Equities fell off late the rate was pressured back to the lows but still holding the Asian low in the 109.60 area; traders report stops building under the 109.40 area with bids ahead suggesting some additional whipsaw is likely ahead of US data tomorrow. If the Asian session tonight finds follow-on selling a test of the 109.50 area is likely. Swissy attempted to regain the 1.1000 handle as well keeping the bears on the defense throughout the day but pressure from technical traders are keeping a lid on the rate despite lower Gold prices today. Look for the Swissy to test the lows around the 1.0920/30 area overnight as the top is well-defended above the 1.1000 area near-term. For the most part the USD is trapped in current near-term ranges and is likely to need some impetus to either rally or drop; in my view that will likely be tomorrow’s Philly Fed data but tonight is thick with news from our trading partners. Overnight action will likely include some whipsaw so I suggest not moving stops as long as they are out of range for the week. Look for a USD slide overnight and a test of lows before more two-way action. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8750 Resistance 2: 1.8700/10 Resistance 1: 1.8680 Latest New York: 1.8618 Support 1: 1.8520/30 Support 2: 1.8500 Support 3: 1.8480 Comments Late rally shows solid bids coming in, rate holding above the lows and inside previous large wick. Bids expected during the day as shorts cover. Late highs driven by stops and some active buying; late shorts likely to roll stops close-in. Look for more upside this week. Rate bouncing off two-year lows and is an excellent buy in my view. Rate has likely flushed out every long now and shorts will likely take gains soon leaving the rate vulnerable to a sharp rally. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Get ready for the rally. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 4:30am GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4840/50 Resistance 2: 1.4800/10 Resistance 1: 1.4780 Latest New York: 1.4745 Support 1: 1.4670/80 Support 2: 1.4650 Support 3: 1.4620/30 Comments New lows on light volume during the day, unable to extend losses. Stops on the way down at 1.4750 on Russian sales, support solid in my view at 1.4700 area; look for late shorts to bail on a move back over the 1.4780 area this week. Likely rolling stops lower to the 1.4800/20 area in size. Grind in two-way action is good but we want higher volumes on rallies to form this bottom. Some whipsaw possible but unable to make new lows so far this week. Traders report large bids on the drop but volumes died later. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Larger names buying last week traders say. Likely the rate has flushed all longs. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 3:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD finally weakens • Volumes a bit lower • US news no help Overnight Preview • Look for consolidation • USD likely to have a weaker bias mid-week Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Another light day for the Greenback. Summary After showing subtle signs of topping the past few days the USD finally edged lower in thinner forex trade after the news was out this morning. Although the fundamental picture was a mixed bag with PPI rising and housing still weak the Greenback is not attracting substantial bids as we head into the close. Cable surprised to the upside printing fresh highs for the day at 1.8681 but has since retreated a bit and remains in positive territory. Headline estimates for UK inflation are on the rise and with the expectations for a BOE rate hike sooner rather than later and unless the USD can mount a formidable advance against the cross-spreaders it appears the GBP has bottomed for the month. Aggressive traders can look to buy any weakness the next 24 hours in my view. EURO found light close-in stops above the 1.4740/50 area for a high print at 1.4793 before falling back to hold the 1.4760/70 area; traders say offers for the “sell rallies” crowd were positioned ahead of 1.4800 with large stops above suggesting that if late sellers were in today a test of further offers is likely. German ZEW and PPI data out overnight were supportive of the rate and with light news due for the rest of the week the EURO is likely to trade technically with support now around the 1.4690 area and resistance at the 1.4800 handle. Expect stops from shorts to be rolled down closer to the market likely in the 1.4820 area; expect a short-squeeze to get rolling above that number if we trade there the next 24 hours or so. Market moving data will include Philly Fed on Thursday so between now and then if EURO can’t break back the upside will likely be the course of least resistance. USD/JPY probed for stops as did USD/CHF; both pairs finding some at 109.60 and 1.0950 respectively for low prints on the day at 109.54 and 1.0907. Traders expect more stops at 1.0900 in Swissy and 109.20 in USD/JPY; both numbers likely to trade overnight in my view. The toolbox executed an exponential reversal today so aggressive traders can sell any bounce in USD/CHF. Loonie continues to hold the 1.0600 handle on fears the government will be recalled in Ottawa but the strength is likely only near-term as the rest of the USD-complex is under threat today. Look for the USD to consolidate with a lower bias overnight. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.8750 Resistance 2: 1.8700/10 Resistance 1: 1.8680 Latest New York: 1.8675 Support 1: 1.8520/30 Support 2: 1.8400 Support 3: 1.8370 Comments Stopped out of longs overnight, rate holding above the lows and showing another large wick. Late highs driven by stops and some active buying; late shorts likely to roll stops close-in. Look for more upside this week. Possibly short covering ahead of the news due Tuesday; some of that may have contributed to the one-figure rally off the lows overnight. Rate bouncing off two-year lows and is an excellent buy in my view. Rate has likely flushed out every long now and shorts will likely take gains soon leaving the rate vulnerable to a sharp rally. Possible buying from semi-official names (Russians) so watch the news. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Get ready for the rally. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.4850 Resistance 2: 1.4820/30 Resistance 1: 1.4790/1.4800 Latest New York: 1.4791 Support 1: 1.4620/30 Support 2: 1.4600 Support 3: 1.4570/80 Comments Another stop driven break under the 1.4650 area bought by Russian names traders say; better than expected German ZEW data helps the rate off the lows. Rally over the 1.4750 area likely included some short covering. Today’s US data caused some whipsaw but unable to make new lows. Traders report large bids on the drop but volumes died later. Traders report model/macro accounts continue selling the rate. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Larger names buying last week traders say. Likely the rate has flushed all longs. Aggressive traders can buy this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. http://www.forexpros.com