ForexAnalysis

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading •USD remains two-way, volumes thin •Majors hold support, USD fails late in the day •Equities and Energies in focus due to light data Overnight Preview •Look for the USD to continue two-way •Book-squaring ahead of US news possible overnight Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •8:30am USD Unemployment Claims •10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies •10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage Claims likely to be main focus tomorrow. Summary The USD continued to whipsaw today losing important ground against the majors as the lack of fundamental news kept traders focused on Equities and Energy. Although crude oil prices have stabilized today without a large swing either way, equities continued to soften in two-way action pressuring the Greenback into lows late in the New York session. With little to focus on besides equities and energy, traders were mostly sidelined unless prices moved to a particularly attractive area for most players; desks reported that volumes were very light all day and may have contributed to exacerbating the losses seen. Cable rallied off low prints at 1.9671 to post a new high for the day at 1.9824 but traders again noted thin conditions. Stops in expected areas indeed helped the action but the rate is not expected to continue higher without help. EURO also rallied but stalled again at the 1.5750 area and drew protective option selling ahead of the 1.5770/80 area; high prints at 1.5750 exactly apparently left the option barrier intact near term. Sellers included recent Asian sovereigns traders say suggesting the rate is topped for now. USD/JPY was unable to break the overnight high on whipsaw volatility and fell to new lows as stocks wilted; stops were elected again under the 107.00 handle for a low print at 106.76; Forex traders note that the rate has lots of sell interest on rallies this week suggesting the rate will not be able to break offers resting at 107.70/80 area. USD/CHF also dropped but was unable to uncover resting stops said to be in the 1.0270 area; low prints at 1.0276 drew bids and the rate briefly managed a few hours over the 1.0300 handle into the close; close under the 1.0300 handle today seen as opening the door for further losses this week. Our orders to sell GBP on this rally were filled and new orders for USD shorts are working. Most likely we will need to adjust those orders tomorrow as the Greenback doesn’t look very healthy near-term. Look for more two-way action and a rally by the USD as the two-way action will likely remain ahead of US data in the morning. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.9900 Resistance 2: 1.9850 Resistance 1: 1.9820 Latest New York: 1.9805 Support 1: 1.9750 Support 2: 1.9690/1.9700 Support 3: 1.9650 Comments Rate rallies a full handle to breach new highs but volumes light; could be a head fake. Sell signal negated just as the resting order gets filled; expect volatility. Bids around the 1.9660 area from “large names” cushioned the break; short-covering likely igniting the rally. Traders expect GBP to track EURO this week. Traders now expect a top to form as the rate had thinner volume on the rally into the reported option defense last week and early this week. Rate fails at high prints near previous resistance so a correction is still developing. Spillover weakness/strength from EURO still likely all week this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. G-8 data may create some whipsaw again. Today’s US data likely no factor. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement 7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5800/10 Resistance 2: 1.5780 Resistance 1: 1.5750/60 Latest New York: 1.5732 Support 1: 1.5630/40 Support 2: 1.5600/10 Support 3: 1.5580 Comments Eurozone GDP revised lower but rate is unaffected, technical trade and sympathy with Cable remains the main driver. Rally today hits a brick wall at 1.5750. Major support at the 1.5580 area and slightly below. Stops elected under the 1.5680 area overnight but option defense reported at 1.5650 area. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5600 to 1.5550 traders say. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Exponential reversal still valid. Oil higher helping to lift a bit. Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Light start to the week, traders watching G8 summit closely Summary The USD is stronger across the board after a weak start in Asia overnight; volumes have been light all day traders say and technical trade has been the rule. Staying mostly within established ranges the Greenback failed to extend strength with any conviction but rather remained within established recent ranges and covered a lot of the same ground twice. Making new lows after the London fix, EURO remained on the defense all day and fell to a low print at 1.5634 before seeing short-covering from weak shorts. Highs in the rate were an unimpressive 1.5740 making the EURO stuck near-term inside recent ranges. GBP fared a bit better for the bears with low prints at 1.9664 clearing stops under the 1.9700 area again; Forex traders note that cross-spreading for the Yen pairs kept the two-way action alive in Europe as whipsaw in most pairs forced out weak hands overnight. Both EURO and GBP again suffered from weak equities but shrugged off poor US housing data this morning. Dropping a larger than expected 4.7% Pending home sales created a brief flurry of activity but once that was out of the way the EURO and GBP settled into a slow grind lower until minor stops were hit and shorts covered into the break. Technical trade is expected again overnight and tomorrow leaving the majors vulnerable to another dip lower. USD/JPY stalled on the approach to the 107.50 area; high prints with light stops at 107.55 but traders say volumes on the move were almost nil. Option defense and offers are layered ahead of the 107.70/80 area suggesting that the top is in. Asian sovereigns were seen on the offer as well making the USD vulnerable at this level. USD/CHF benefited from cross-trade and general USD bids to score a high print at 1.0343 making for a double top on the daily charts. Again, volumes were light. In my view, a low volume rally into a significant technical area suggests that the majors will reverse again overnight; the question is when will the majors make a sharp move instead of range-trade? In my view, it would be a good idea for traders to consider shorting the USD on any additional strength the next 24 hours. US news due is not market moving in my view and the majors are trading technical. Look for a correction lower tomorrow in the greenback. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/gbp-usd"]GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.9900 Resistance 2: 1.9850 Resistance 1: 1.9820/30 Latest New York: 1.9694 Support 1: 1.9650/60 Support 2: 1.9600 Support 3: 1.9550 Comments Rate remains inside buying wick from yesterday; following EURO lower. Strong sell signal active and aggressive traders can sell the rate on any strength. Bids around the 1.9660 area from “large names” cushioning the break; rally clears a lot of weak shorts as the week starts. Traders expect GBP to track EURO this week. Traders now expect a top to form as the rate had thinner volume on the rally into the reported option defense last week and overnight. Rate fails at high prints near previous resistance so a correction is still developing. Spillover weakness/strength from EURO still likely all week this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. G-8 data may create some whipsaw again. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Trade Balance 5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5800/10 Resistance 2: 1.5780 Resistance 1: 1.5750/60 Latest New York: 1.5654 Support 1: 1.5630 Support 2: 1.5600/10 Support 3: 1.5580 Comments Rate is failing to attract bids; offers increase on whipsaw after US data. Major support at the 1.5580 area and slightly below. Stops elected under the 1.5700 area but option defense reported at 1.5650 area. Highs were sold aggressively by Asian sovereigns again today traders say and it looks like they will attempt it again on additional strength. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5600 to 1.5550 traders say. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Exponential reversal still valid. Looking for a sell on this strength. Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading •G8 Summit begins •USD gives back early gains •Technical trade dominates Overnight Preview •Expect two-way action with the USD to cover a lot of the same ground again Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •8:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks •10:00am USD Pending Home Sales •10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories Summary The USD whipsawed traders again today initially coming on the board higher from light overnight trade but then falling off hard to make lows on the day in some pairs. Equities prices fell back after a strong early start underscoring the overall weakness of the US economic situation many feel; the USD is under threat this week as more Equities losses are likely and the G8 will likely not offer any real help to the Greenback near-term. Forex traders note that the G8 summit will be long on rhetoric and short on action with the most likely agreement to be some kind of announcement that the US will open the SPR soon to reduce the price of oil. Should that be the case expect a wild ride for the major pairs as the euphoric rally in stocks, USD, and bonds will likely see a major correction in the major pairs. That not-withstanding, no mention of any help for the USD will likely further accelerate losses into the end of the week. On the day, the GBP started weaker for a low print at 1.9647 but once stocks fell off the GBP rallied along with EURO and reversed a full handle to trade in the 1.9760/70 area after the London fix. EURO also reversed hard after making a low print at 1.5610 the rate rallied to the 1.5724 area after posted a new daily high at 1.5755; stops in both EURO and GBP were noted on the way higher as late shorts got crushed. In my view, day traders had the best clue for a EURO long this morning on the announcement that model accounts were on the offer at 1.5640 area; those guys are almost always a sure bet for a reversal. USD/JPY topped at 107.75 this morning on thin volumes before turning lower; traders note stops at the 107.20 area and 107.00 area helped push the rate to a new daily low at 106.65 before a slight bounce was seen. Closing back over the 107.00 area a pause for the bears and if you have shorts working expect the rate to rally back to the highs before turning lower again. Lots of whipsaw likely the next few trading sessions as USD traders try to make sense of the conflicting rhetoric and fundamentals. Tomorrow’s data likely to be a non-event but expect some volatility around the release of homes sales data. Overnight expect a quiet two-way session with the USD likely to be slightly better in the morning on follow-on volatility. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/gbp-usd"]GBP/USD daily Resistance 3: 1.9900 Resistance 2: 1.9850 Resistance 1: 1.9820/30 Latest New York: 1.9763 Support 1: 1.9650/60 Support 2: 1.9600 Support 3: 1.9550 Comments Reversal after the fix as stocks lose ground, stops hunted to the upside. Bids around the 1.9660 area from “large names” cushioning the break; rally clears a lot of weak shorts as the week starts. Traders expect GBP to track EURO this week. Low prints at 1.9660 area attracted some short-covering. Traders now expect a top to form as the rate had thinner volume on the rally into the reported option defense last week and overnight. Rate fails at high prints near previous resistance so a correction is still developing. Spillover weakness/strength from EURO still likely all week this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. G-8 data may create some whipsaw again. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 7:01pm GBP Consumer Confidence Index Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m 4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5800/10 Resistance 2: 1.5780 Resistance 1: 1.5750/60 Latest New York: 1.5715 Support 1: 1.5600/10 Support 2: 1.5580 Support 3: 1.5550 Comments Rate rallies back hard on falling stocks and USD malaise, aggressive selling by model accounts at the 1.5630/40 area absorbed as the rate rallies; those guys are gone now so look for the rate to top in the next 24 hours or so. Major support at the 1.5580 area and slightly below. Stops elected under the 1.5700 area but option defense reported at 1.5650 area. Highs were sold aggressively by Asian sovereigns Wednesday traders say and it looks like they will attempt it again this week. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5600 to 1.5550 traders say. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Exponential reversal still valid. Looking for a sell on this strength. Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe •G8 Summit begins •USD rallies •Crude Oil lower Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •None in the US Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) •8:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks •10:00am USD Pending Home Sales •10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories Summary The USD is trading firmer to start New York this morning after a slow start in Asia; traders have been waiting for the return of US trading before large volumes were seen. Cross-spreaders and option defense started the overnight session as EURO/JPY sales initially rallied the majors to highs overnight before the USD began to gain in Europe. Disappointing UK economic data and poor German industrial production numbers pressured both GBP and EURO through the European session knocking both pairs into lows ahead of New York. Cable traded to a low print at 1.9666 as stops fired off under the 1.9700 handle again; traders note that the GBP appears to be trading in a very large triangle/wedge pattern suggesting a lot of potential two-way action over several handles may result. Now that we are in the “summer doldrums” it is possible that the technical picture will remain more viable for short-term traders and it is my view that the GBP will cover a lot of the same ground twice. EURO sold off briefly into stops under the 1.5700 handle for a low print at 1.5610 before solid bids were seen. Forex traders report that model accounts were on the offer with large orders at the 1.5630/40 area; also of note the 50 bar MA comes in today at 1.5582 which may offer support on further weakness. EURO has a strong exponential sell signal from Thursday last week and the rate is likely going to correct into solid support a bit further down in my view. Good quality buys may be seen in the next 24-48 hours. USD/JPY rallied to our limit entry point overnight and aggressive traders should be short at the 107.50 area; high prints so far overnight 107.72 in line with the 200 bar MA. Traders note that the rate has seen quality buys last week from Asian sovereigns who were seen briefly offering the rate above the 107.50 area overnight suggesting that possibly the rate is capped at the 200 bar MA near-term. USD/CHF and USD/CAD also rallied into near-term resistance but failed to trigger quality sell signals just yet. Look for Swissy to be a sell above the 1.0350 area and the Loonie to be a short above the 1.0230/40 area; CAD data due out today may be of help there. In my view, the USD is off to a firm start into resistance; we need to look at the short side of any strength near-term. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5780 Resistance 2: 1.5750 Resistance 1: 1.5700/10 Latest New York: 1.5656 Support 1: 1.5600/10 Support 2: 1.5580 Support 3: 1.5550 Comments Rate drops on stops and aggressive selling; model accounts on the offer traders say around the 1.5630/40 area. Major support at the 1.5580 area and slightly below. Stops elected under the 1.5700 area but option defense reported at 1.5650 area. Highs were sold aggressively by Asian sovereigns Wednesday traders say. Lots of stops building under the 1.5770 area were cleared overnight and a further break lower is likely on whipsaw today. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5600 to 1.5550 traders say. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Exponential reversal still valid. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 108.40/50 Resistance 2: 108.20 Resistance 1: 107.80 Latest New York: 107.57 Support 1: 106.80 Support 2: 106.50 Support 3: 106.20 Comments Upside limited now that rate clears stops ahead of 107.80 area; option defense ahead of 108.00. 200 bar MA likely to cap the rate near term. Rate firms up on large cross-spreading traders say; resting order at the 107.50 area to sell the rate should be filled. Bids noted at 105.70/80 area suggesting a firm bottom is in near-term. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but a correction is coming and should be a low-volume affair. Offers layered to 107.50 some desks report so upside may be labored above the 106.50 area; Expect more two-way action. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 1:00am JPY Economy Watchers Current Index 7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • The Greenback whipsaws, ends weaker • EURO holds 1.5800 handle with conviction • Volumes lighter Overnight Preview • Traders look for a quiet evening ahead of Thursday • Expect volatility Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Nonfarm Employment Change • 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate • 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Summary The USD whipsawed both bulls and bears today after a surprise ADP report ignites a round of USD selling. Most of the major pairs rallied to test near-term resistance and the Greenback went on the defensive shortly after the news this morning after building a nice base of firmness overnight. Dropping through several support levels the USD found stops and active selling to drive it into previous weekly lows; traders note that volumes were not impressive and suggest that the break may be a bear trap ahead of US and ECB data tomorrow. GBP failed to rally to new highs but tracked EURO higher after the news. Stops above the 1.9920/30 area triggered after shorts took control under the 1.9900 handle briefly this morning. Highs at 1.9977 went unchallenged despite the rally in EURO. Scoring new weekly highs and a new 30 day high at 1.5889 EURO remained bid all day after stops above the 1.5850 area were triggered. Forex traders note that volumes were lighter but can’t argue with the near-term strength. Poor US data is expected tomorrow and a 25 BP rate hike by the ECB is keeping the rate bid. Many traders are sidelined ahead of tomorrow’s news due to the fact that the rate is at the levels it should be at for the hike and poor US news. In my view, the EURO is setting up for a correction lower and today’s strength is possibly a bull trap. Tomorrow will be hard to play as the markets close early in the US after a slew of important fundamentals. USD/JPY looked strong this morning then broke back sharply as the USD was sold across the board; traders note that the rate is a full handle lower than the highs at the open. In my view the USD is having a knee-jerk reaction and USD/JPY is likely to recover into tomorrow’s action. Aggressive traders can look to buy the rate on weakness under the 105.80 area near-term. Swissy and Loonie both broke back to go neutral on the day after scoring important 24 hour highs. In my view, the USD is whipsawing both sides and neither the bulls nor the bears have the upper hand. Expect more volatility on Thursday as the ECB meeting/press conference add fuel to the US data due out about the same time. With an early close it will be a volatile day so if not positioned with a lead it is OK to stay flat and come back next week. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5950 Resistance 2: 1.5920/30 Resistance 1: 1.5900 Latest New York: 1.5875 Support 1: 1.5770 Support 2: 1.5720 Support 3: 1.5680 Comments Rate rallies hard after ADP surprises, stops elected above the 1.5860 area. Rate whipsaws lower then higher and makes highs on light volume ahead of US news tomorrow. Highs were sold aggressively by Asian sovereigns traders say but rate is firm. Lots of stops building under the 1.5770 area and a break lower is likely on whipsaw Thursday. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5700 traders say. US news tomorrow likely to create volatility so be ready for whipsaw or a reversal. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Equities weaker also no help. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Services PMI (p) 5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 107.40/50 Resistance 2: 107.20 Resistance 1: 106.80 Latest New York: 105.97 Support 1: 105.70/80 Support 2: 105.50 Support 3: 105.20 Comments Rate gives back overnight gains on whipsaw, likely to trade both sides of unchanged tonight ahead of US data tomorrow. Rate firms up on large cross-spreading traders say; look for a push on stops around the 107.00 handle. OK to place a resting order at the 107.50 area to sell the rate. Bids noted at 105.70/80 area suggesting a firm bottom is in near-term. Sell a rally if we get it. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but a correction is coming and should be a low-volume affair. Offers layered to 107.50 some desks report so upside may be labored above the 106.50 area; stops above 106.80 or so. Expect more two-way action overnight ahead of US data. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • ISM better than expected • USD falls to support and then rallies • EURO fails at resistance Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to consolidate in two-way action Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y • 8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change • 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m • 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 11:00am USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks • 12:00pm USD FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks Summary The USD is firming into the New York close after remaining two-way all day; US data helped the Greenback a bit as it came in slightly positive. Firming stocks after the weakness early in the day a positive for some pairs as well. Excessive volatility worked against both sides today as most pairs were whipsawed over close to a 100 point range during the day. GBP failed to attracted bids after initially dropping to the 1.9930 area after the highs early in New York at 2.0009; a minor bounce to the 1.9960 area was sold and the rate dialed to hold gains finishing back near the 1.9930 area. Technically the GBP appears to be forming a top as volumes were light and the crosses are correcting lower on the GBP side. EURO had the highs challenged around mid-day after falling back from the 1.5820 area in the morning; lows were set at 1.5722 before a rally extended the highs above the 1.5820 high for another high print at 1.5828 before retreating; EURO dropped back to the 1.5780 area on the close and looks vulnerable to topping as well. Today’s ISM data helped the USD against the majors but was still considered benign, the two-way whipsaw against the GBP and EURO most likely due to oil volatility and equities pricing. USD/JPY held support at the 105.20/30 area with a low print at 105.22 before rallying all day to close back above the 106.00 handle; overnight highs at 106.40 likely to hold further offers with stops layered above. Forex traders note that the Yen crosses will likely drive near-term sentiment in USD/JPY as the US data due out this week is fairly well expected to be USD neutral to unfriendly. Tomorrow’s ADP private payrolls data is highly inaccurate and will likely create volatility but no real direction. The USD is likely to remain under upside bias until the Thursday NFP data but expect two-way action and a lot of whipsaw as the USD corrects higher back to near-term resistance. I would look for the Greenback to rally another two handles before the selling pressure comes on in force again. Expect two-way consolidation again overnight. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/gbp-usd"]GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 2.0080 Resistance 2: 2.0050 Resistance 1: 2.0000/10 Latest New York: 1.9941 Support 1: 1.9880 Support 2: 1.9820 Support 3: 1.9780 Comments Rate softens during US trade slightly, US data slightly positive for the USD. Stops the main driver over the 1.9970/80 area with more over the 2.00 handle. Traders expect GBP to track EURO on a break. UK housing prices lower than expected had no effect; traders now expect a top to form as the rate had thinner volume on the rally into the reported option defense. Rate fails at high prints near previous resistance so a correction is still developing. Spillover weakness/strength from EURO still likely all week this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. US data today may create some whipsaw again. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP Construction PMI 4:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5900 Resistance 2: 1.5880 Resistance 1: 1.5830/40 Latest New York: 1.5784 Support 1: 1.5720 Support 2: 1.5680 Support 3: 1.5650 Comments Rate not supported by higher Oil again today suggesting a near-term top. Rally then breaks after attempted highs suggests some selling pressure is developing. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5700 traders say. Asian sovereign selling seen overnight; along with Swiss selling. US news today likely to create volatility so be ready for whipsaw or a reversal. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. Watch for model accounts on the bid today; those guys love to buy highs. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Equities weaker also no help. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:15am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks 5:00am EUR PPI m/m Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD loses ground but attempts a recovery • Stops run • Volumes moderate Overnight Preview • Two-way action likely Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices • 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m • Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales Expect ISM to remain weak. Summary The USD is two-way and whippy today after a losing start to the day. Across the board the USD made monthly lows to end the quarter no doubt creating a lot of risk-aversion liquidation ahead of US data and the holiday-shortened trade week. GBP has upside resistance at 1.9960 area challenged more than once on several rallies but each time the market backed off to trade lower. Into the London fix rumors of buy-needs kept the rate firm but once the fix was gone traders sold the rate lower and the GBP made lows for the day at 1.9878; rate continued to whipsaw short-term accounts as the GBP rallied off the low to trade above the 1.9940 area briefly again. For the most part the EURO had a similar day but dropping Oil prices helped to keep the pressure on more-so than GBP. EURO had a high print at 1.5837 but once the highs were in during European trade the EURO settled back to trade lower all day. Forex traders note that in both pairs volumes were moderate and with a lower close likely all offers. USD/JPY remained on the defensive most of the morning but staged a modest recovery after the London fix as well coming close to the overnight highs with a New York high at 106.25 areas. Traders say the rate is likely to remain two-way as Asian sovereigns have an appetite for USD on the dips while exporters are on the offer during any strength. The rate held the 105.00 handle on the morning break suggesting that a rotation higher might be good for a test of the breakdown area around the 107.50 area near-term; should that be the case there is a lot of volatility there. Swissy weakened as well but held lows at 1.0130 which were never challenged in New York trade. USD/CHF likely to weaken more but the rate wants to rotate high and was the only major pair higher on the day today. Loonie rallied as well and cleared the 1.0200 handle briefly suggesting a lot of two-way action is coming. The rate settled back after scoring a high at 1.0215 in two way action. Traders note that volumes were good in all pairs and more two-way action is due across the board. In my view, the Greenback is set to rotate higher ahead of Non-Farm payrolls later in the week. Although whipsaw is likely as well, I think your best strategy is to sell rallies and wait for the upside correction in USD to fail. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5900 Resistance 2: 1.5880 Resistance 1: 1.5830/40 Latest New York: 1.5742 Support 1: 1.5720 Support 2: 1.5680 Support 3: 1.5650 Comments Rate not supported by higher Oil today suggesting a near-term top. Closing lower suggests some selling pressure is developing. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5700 traders say. Closes near the 1.5800 handle from last week, more upside likely but a pullback is needed. Asian sovereign selling seen overnight. US news today likely to create volatility so be ready for whipsaw or a reversal. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. Watch for model accounts on the bid today; those guys love to buy highs. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. COT data show a flip to EURO longs; could be a clue for a top. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 107.80 Resistance 2: 107.20/30 Resistance 1: 106.50 Latest New York: 106.23 Support 1: 10500/104.90 Support 2: 104.50 Support 3: 104.20 Comments Rate continues on follow-on weakness, strong bids noted suggesting a whipsaw bounce is coming. Close back over the 106.00 area suggests a rally soon. Today’s dip under the 105.00 handle lacked conviction and a potential rally may develop early; sell that rally if we get it. In the meantime, OK to liquidate shorts and wait. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. Stops in the 105.80 area cleared overnight; traders note stops were both ways. COT data show a flip to Yen longs suggesting a bottom is in. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD starts firm, weakens into Europe • Stops triggered on the way down • Traders report good volume Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 9:45am USD Chicago PMI Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices • 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m • Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales Expect ISM to remain weak. Summary The USD started Asia on the defensive as most of the major pairs rallied again to new near-term highs against the Greenback; Cable and EURO finding previous resistance a bit tougher to break and stalling at previous monthly highs. Cable high print at 1.9968 roughly in line with previous highs in the same area from late April and reversing to go negative on the day shortly after the European open. Disappointing UK mortgage approvals put the pressure on Sterling again and the rate made lows just ahead of the US open at 1.9894. EURO made a high print in Asia at 1.5837 before reversing along with GBP; low prints in early New York at 1.5745 before light bids supported the rate off the lows. Both GBP and EURO are tracking each other as cross-spreaders continue to work the Yen side of the crosses; speculation is high that the Yen will continue to weaken against most pairs but today appears to be a profit taking day as the reversals are in all Yen crosses.USD/JPY was pressured into new monthly lows completing a reasonable fib retracement target for a low print in Europe at 104.98 before bids were seen and a short squeeze resulted. The rate has recovered to the 105.60 area in light trade as New York gets underway. Stops reported at the 105.50 area on the way down and again on the way up suggesting late traders are getting whipsawed. USD/CHF dropped in tandem with other USD weakness falling to a low print at 1.0130 before a short squeeze took the rate back over the 1.0200 handle; Forex traders note that across the board in all pairs stops were elected from what appears to be the late USD long. That being said, the probability of additional volatility and likely recovery now that the stops have been run is higher; aggressive traders can look to short EURO above the 1.5770 area and take gains on the Short USD/JPY and USD/CHF positions around current pricing if still in from the weekend. Although the trend is lower for the USD I expect a lot of potential volatility this week and the next thing is to re-short on strength if we get it. Look for the USD to rally into previous resistance across the board and we can re-short it there. Today’s PMI data likely to inspire a bout of volatility. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5900 Resistance 2: 1.5880 Resistance 1: 1.5830/40 Latest New York: 1.5768 Support 1: 1.5720 Support 2: 1.5680 Support 3: 1.5650 Comments Rate not supported by higher Oil today suggesting a near-term top. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5700 traders say. Closes near the 1.5800 handle from last week, more upside likely but a pullback is needed. Asian sovereign selling seen overnight. US news today likely to create volatility so be ready for whipsaw or a reversal. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. Watch for model accounts on the bid today; those guys love to buy highs. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; close over the 50 bar likely to draw more buying to end the week. Bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. COT data show a flip to EURO longs; could be a clue for a top. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 107.80 Resistance 2: 107.20/30 Resistance 1: 106.50 Latest New York: 105.56 Support 1: 10500/104.90 Support 2: 104.50 Support 3: 104.20 Comments Rate continues on follow-on weakness, strong bids noted suggesting a whipsaw bounce is coming. Today’s dip under the 105.00 handle lacked conviction and a potential rally may develop early; sell that rally early next week if we get it. In the meantime, OK to liquidate shorts and wait. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. Stops in the 105.80 area cleared overnight; traders note stops were both ways. Cot data show a flip to Yen longs suggesting a bottom is in. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD gets hammered • US data ignored in favor of rising Oil • Equities pressure USD/JPY Overnight Preview • Look for continued weakness • USD likely to fall overnight Looking Ahead to Friday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m • 8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m • 8:30am USD Personal Income m/m • 9:55am USD Revised Michigan Sentiment Summary The Greenback got hammered today as panic hit the equities markets; Crude Oil passes the $140.00/BBL mark and makes a record close. In my view, this is exactly what the USD needs to reach back into new 2008 lows. If you notice, the USD has been over 5% weaker earlier in the year against Yen and CHF while it is stronger against EURO and GBP; I think it is time to remember that panic doesn’t pay. Look for the USD to drop significantly during the early part of the next quarter but let’s not lose focus; the USD will bottom and recover at some point and with equities this cheap you can bet SWF money will be all over the bid on choice stocks soon. That repatriation will make a firm bottom in the USD this year late in my view. On the day, Cable found a top at the 1.9890 area; high print at 1.9897 tracking EURO higher all day. EURO found stops above the 1.5700 area as expected but also found more above the 1.5750 area stalling at a high print of 1.5766 and remaining firm all day. Both EURO and GBP had willing bids all day and saw lots of dip buying; despite good selling by Asian sovereigns overnight. USD/JPY finally broke under the 107.00 handle finding stops in good size at the 106.90 area; low prints 106.60 making a new two-week low. Forex traders note that volumes were good and trade was orderly suggesting that there were quality bids on the break as well as quality offers. Traders expect further losses near-term to close out the quarter. USD/CHF is under the 1.0230 area for a low print at 1.0219 making a mess of the bull’s balance sheets; expect further losses to end the week. In my view, the USD has broken into expected lows and the big question is if the USD can continue to fall; I think that is a slam-dunk given the high price of Oil. Look for the USD to fall overnight on follow-on selling. No US data tomorrow of note so expect continued pressure during the day and for the USD to finish the week somewhat lower. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5820 Resistance 2: 1.5800 Resistance 1: 1.5780 Latest New York: 1.5761 Support 1: 1.5620 Support 2: 1.5580 Support 3: 1.5550 Comments Rate powers higher on Oil, stops and general USD weakness. Stops above the 1.5700 handle; more stops over the 1.5750 and 1.5780 area but offers will likely cap any further strength near-term. Asian sovereign selling seen overnight. US news today likely to create volatility so be ready for whipsaw or a reversal. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. Watch for model accounts on the bid today or Friday. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; close over the 50 bar likely to draw more buying to end the week. Bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Expect higher action this week as late shorts get squeezed. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 4:00am EUR Current Account 5:00am EUR Consumer Confidence 12:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 109.00 Resistance 2: 108.80 Resistance 1: 108.50 Latest New York: 106.71 Support 1: 106.40 Support 2: 106.10/20 Support 3: 105.80 Comments Rate finally breaks as expected, OK to add on the close for additional weakness. Exporters noted on the offer the past 24 hours and the rate breaks below 107.00 with authority. Failure to close above the 108.00 handle Monday a good sign rate is ready to break back to the lows looking for stops under the 107.10/107.00 area. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. If short—let it work. If today’s US data is weak, expect a pullback again to test support. Look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.00 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Stops likely rolled up under the 107.00 area for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD whipsaws after early sideways start • US data unfriendly to the Greenback • As expected, FOMC holds rates firm Overnight Preview • USD likely to continue to weaken • EURO above resistance Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Final GDP q/q • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 8:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q • 10:00am USD Existing Home Sales • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage Summary As expected the FOMC held interest rates steady and left the discount window on hold too. The statement was full of the usual “Strong Dollar” rhetoric but after the initial brief USD rally into expected S/R the Greenback reversed hard and fell to new lows on the day across the board. Stops were seen in all pairs but active selling of USD was noted by several shops as the USD made highs around the FOMC announcement. Forex traders were not surprised at the strength of the reversal or the speed and many expressed concern that the USD will get ahead of itself on a decline before the ECB has a chance to raise rates next week. GBP rallied for a high print at 1.9771 after the announcement; traders note that stops were elected at 1.9740/50 area after the first push to there was repelled during the day. In other words, shorts sold ahead of the news and placed their stops close-in expecting a drop which never happened. EURO plowed through near-term resistance and is no officially rallying; stops placed around the 1.5630 area were triggered as layered supply above the 1.5600 area was absorbed after the news. EURO now has no top ahead of the 1.5800/20 area some traders say and a sustained rally may be in the works for tomorrow and Friday. Should the EURO clear the 1.5800 area or beyond by the end of the week that would make this month an engulfing month on the charts—a very bullish scenario. USD/JPY failed to inspire trade either way for most of the day preferring to hover at the 108.00 handle until the Fed news; a brief rally to 108.43 high print was sold aggressively and the rate reversed into low prints at 107.65 within minutes. The rate is unable to break out of the 108.40-107.00 range that has plagued this pair for over a week. When it finally goes one way or the other it could be a spectacular move. USD/CHF also reversed hard making lows on the day at 1.0340; traders expect more. Almost lost in the day’s action was earlier US data, Durables were flat and housing was lower; traders expect that more unfriendly news will be seen for tomorrow as well. In my view, nothing to do but buy dips in EURO and add to open shorts in other pairs. EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5800 Resistance 2: 1.5750/60 Resistance 1: 1.5720 Latest New York: 1.5674 Support 1: 1.5550/60 Support 2: 1.5500 Support 3: 1.5450 Comments Rate blasts through resistance and makes highs for the week. Better EMU news helps keep the rate firm. US news likely to create volatility. Russians buying EURO again overnight a good sign but watch for model accounts on the bid the next few days. The 50 bar MA offering resistance; close over the 50 bar likely to draw more buying tomorrow. Bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Expect higher action this week as late shorts get squeezed. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Import Price Index m/m 4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0520 Resistance 2: 1.0500 Resistance 1: 1.0470/80 Latest New York: 1.0350 Support 1: 1.0320/30 Support 2: 1.0300 Support 3: 1.0270/80 Comments Tight range and low volumes overnight; rate likely to whipsaw today so be ready for volatility. Looking to add to position if rate can clear under the 1.0300/10 area. Rate stuck in a range but still looking to support/resistance hovering around the 100 bar MA. Overhead resistance now at the 1.0480 area. Rate continues to rotate around the 100 bar MA area; a sell off to end the day today would be ideal to set-up for further losses during the week. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Hourly sell signals also suggest that the rate is ready to rotate lower again. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. You can also visit our forex brokers section, compare brokers and more. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two-way all day • Starts on the offensive—ends on the defensive • GBP and EURO at technical resistance. Overnight Preview • Look for a quiet evening ahead of FOMC Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m • 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m • 10:00am USD New Home Sales • 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement • 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate Summary Despite a better start overnight the USD was unable to hold significant gains today after the release of disappointing US data gave traders a reason to sell the Greenback. Although the early volatility was important enough to make new highs or lows on the day for the USD it wasn’t enough to put most pairs into new ranges; Forex traders note that volumes were moderate and both sides seemed to find a reason to take a stand. Trading has been muted the past 24 hours with most desks reporting that concern over the FOMC rate announcement due out tomorrow is keeping larger players quiet; although larger names have been seen at the highs or lows today. Cable initially firmed following EURO but took at hit when the UK mortgage numbers overnight were less than inspiring. Falling to a low print at 1.9622 in early New York the GBP reversed course and rallied to a high print at 1.9726 before offers capped the move today. US data lifted both the GBP and the EURO but neither pair could hold gains as both pairs were at technical resistance during the day. EURO stalled just above the 50 bar MA for a high print at 1.5623 before falling back and leaving a long selling wick on the day. I suggested earlier in the day to liquidate your long EURO position and if you are holding longs still be ready to exit those positions overnight. I don’ think the EURO has what it takes to hold above the 50 bar MA near-term. USD/JPY broke down to post a daily low at 107.36 before rallying all the way back to the 108.00 handle; then dropping mid-range on the close. At no time did the rate ever make the impression it intended to break out to a new high or a new low. Traders note that the rate is simply stuck in an existing range and may be there through the FOMC announcement tomorrow. Swissy also broke to new lows at the 1.0348 number before bouncing off the 50 bar and 100 bar MA’s on the daily chart. In my view, the USD/CHF is firming a bit too much to be short. I would look to take the trade off the next 24 hours if the rate continues to gain above the 1.0400 handle near-term; such as overnight. In my opinion, the USD will cover a lot of the same ground tonight and into the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Look for a rally as a selling opportunity. EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5680 Resistance 2: 1.5650/60 Resistance 1: 1.5620 Latest New York: 1.5567 Support 1: 1.5500/1.5490 Support 2: 1.5470 Support 3: 1.5450 Comments Rate unable to hold gains after surprise rally into the 1.5620 area; long selling wick companion to the bid wick from Monday. Rate likely stuck in tighter range for now. Russians buying EURO a good sign but watch for model accounts on the bid the next few days. The 50 bar MA offering resistance; close over the 50 bar likely to draw more buying early in the week but for now there is pressure coming on in that area. Bids will likely be in the 1.5500/20 area or so. Expect higher action this week as late shorts get squeezed. If long, better to get flat or reverse. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks 4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 108.80 Resistance 2: 108.50 Resistance 1: 108.20 Latest New York: 107.76 Support 1: 107.20/30 Support 2: 107.00 Support 3: 106.80 Comments Rate whipsaws around current S/R; unable to gain traction above or below recent boundaries. Volumes lighter and upside resistance is firm at 108.00 area or a shade higher. Failure to close above the 108.00 handle Monday a good sign rate is ready to break back to the lows looking for stops under the 107.10/107.00 area. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. If short—let it work. If today’s rally fails under the 108.00 handle look for a drop into stops under the 107.00/10 area the next 24 hours. Look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.00 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Stops likely rolled up under the 107.00 area for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Financial spread betting Site. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD holds gains but flows light • S/R holds as expected • Speculation that the Fed will not move rates capping the USD Overnight Preview • Consolidation likely • Two-way action with a downside bias Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 9:00am USD National HPI Composite-20 • 10:00am USD Consumer Confidence • 10:00am USD House Price Index m/m • 10:00am USD Richmond Fed Index Summary The USD is firmer but falling off the highs for the day as the volumes are drying up into the New York close. Traders note that across the board the USD remained inside established ranges to start the week and due to the two-way nature of today’s action most traders expect more consolidation. Volumes got really light after the London fix most desks say and it is likely that traders don’t want to force positions ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting which starts tomorrow. Analysts are almost unanimous that the Fed will not move rates on Wednesday but are divided as to the significance of the statement. Most are expecting Bernanke to “talk tough” but no one expects the Fed to do anything for the next two or three FOMC meetings. In response to poor European news overnight the EURO and GBP both fell back to near-term support but rallied off those lows after the London fix this morning and are now at their highs for the New York session into the close. EURO has regained the 1.5520 area after dropping into the 1.5460/70 area on light volume this morning. Forex traders expect EURO to remain two-way through the week with technical trading likely; most analysts say the rate is “fairly” pricing in a 25 BP hike by the ECB on Jul 3rd. In my view, the FOMC is the key to the trade this week as no move at all will work favorably for the EURO. USD/JPY continued to hold gains but was unable to attract any serious buying at the high prints of 108.07; stops rumored to be above the 108.10 area are out of range today. Traders expect the rate to weaken near-term as the technical picture favors at least a test of the 107.00 handle this week. In my view, the rate is due for a sharp sell-off as all these longs must be getting nervous now that the rate has failed at the quarterly highs several times. Look for the USD/JPY to rotate lower overnight and test the south end of the range the next 24 hours. Swissy is also failing at key resistance, the 1.0480 area. Offers from late longs appear to be active as no stops were reported above the 1.0410/20 area only active buying. Now that those longs are under threat expect a pullback into the 1.03 handle soon. Should be a quiet night ahead of US data tomorrow; don’t expect any surprises. USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 108.80 Resistance 2: 108.50 Resistance 1: 108.00/10 Latest New York: 107.81 Support 1: 107.20/30 Support 2: 107.00 Support 3: 106.80 Comments Rate grinding sideways to higher overnight; volumes lighter and upside resistance is firm at 108.00 area. Failure to close above the 108.00 handle Monday a good sign rate is ready to break back to the lows looking for stops under the 107.10/107.00 area. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. If short—let it work. If today’s rally fails under the 108.00 handle look for a drop into stops under the 107.00/10 area the next 24 hours. Look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.00 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. Bids appear solid but so do offers; exporters likely on the offer all the way to the highs overnight and active the past several days. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Stops likely rolled up under the 107.00 area for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 7:50pm JPY Trade Balance 7:50pm JPY CSPI forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/usd-chf"]USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0520 Resistance 2: 1.0480 Resistance 1: 1.0450/60 Latest New York: 1.0457 Support 1: 1.0320/30 Support 2: 1.0300 Support 3: 1.0270/80 Comments Rate rallies back to resistance, fails at 1.0480 area as expected. Rate stuck in a range but still looking to support/resistance hovering around the 100 bar MA. Overhead resistance now at the 1.0480 area. Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; a sell off to end the day today would be ideal to set-up for further losses during the week. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Hourly sell signals also suggest that the rate is ready to rotate lower again. Look for two-way action overnight into Tuesday. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am CHF Consumption Indicator Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check the Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD firms a bit • Technical trade and stops drive GBP and EURO • Volumes moderate Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • None for the day Expect technical trade for the most part Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 9:00am USD National HPI Composite-20 • 10:00am USD Consumer Confidence • 10:00am USD House Price Index m/m • 10:00am USD Richmond Fed Index Summary The USD is two-way overnight but starts the New York session on the offensive. Still range-bound against Swissy and Yen, the Greenback has recovered some of the losses from late last week. After starting firm in Asia and weakening on exporter supply, the USD/JPY has advanced back to the 107.80 level for a high print in New York at 108.89 but traders see a lot of offers layered up to the technical resistance area of 108.00/10. Stops are said to be over that figure but the overall sentiment is for lower USD/JPY for the week. Swissy is back in the sell zone around the 1.0440/50 area; aggressive traders can look to sell the pair anywhere over the 1.0440 area in my view. The rate is technically weak trading higher on lighter volume and stops above the 1.0410 area so a pullback and long selling wick would be ideal today in that pair. Cable has dropped dramatically tracking EURO lower as both rates suffer from cross-spreading and poor German IFO data. Cable fell from the high print at 1.9760 overnight for a low print in early New York at 1.9699 and remains under pressure. Forex traders note that the lower-than-expected German IFO data disappointed EURO dropping the rate back into close-in stops at the 1.5550 area for a low print in late Europe at 1.5498 where Asian sovereign demand was seen. Aggressive traders can look to buy EURO under the 1.5520/30 area today and expect a buy signal during New York action today. Across the board traders note that volumes are modest and action is technical. All the pairs are trading inside established ranges from last week so nothing really significant is happening just yet. In my view, you can expect a further decline in GBP today and through the week while the USD/JPY and USD/CHF will likely remain range-bound and under pressure. Expect a slow-grind in those pairs. EURO is likely to firm up and advance this week as the technical’s look positive and the market needs to price in a 25 BP rate hike coming in two weeks from the ECB. Look for the USD to remain two-way but weaker today. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/gbp-usd"]GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.9750/60 Resistance 2: 1.9720 Resistance 1: 1.9680 Latest New York: 1.9612 Support 1: 1.9580 Support 2: 1.9550 Support 3: 1.9520 Comments Toolbox provides another strong sell signal overnight, target is short is around the 1.9480/19500 area through the week. Surging oil prices helped EURO last week but a softer start is likely spilling over into GBP. Spillover weakness from EURO still likely all week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Aggressive traders can add to their open shorts anywhere under the 1.9650 area I think; if not short sell a rally into the 1.9650/80 area if you get it today. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Resistance 3: 1.5680 Resistance 2: 1.5650/60 Resistance 1: 1.5620/30 Latest New York: 1.5523 Support 1: 1.5550 Support 2: 1.5500 Support 3: 1.5470 Comments Rate drops back under the 1.5550 area to start the week; should get a buy signal the next day or so. The 50 bar MA offering resistance; close over the 50 bar likely to draw more buying early in the week but for now there is pressure coming on in that area. Close Friday above the 1.5550 area failed to attract more buying, drop into close in stops near the 1.5550 area from late longs; a dip is likely a buying opportunity. Bids will likely be in the 1.5500/20 area or so. Expect higher action next week as late shorts get squeezed. If long, OK to hold over the weekend. Buy the next dip to add to positions. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Tentative EUR German Import Price Index 2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two-way overnight • Weakens in NY trade • All eyes on US data tomorrow Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to consolidate with a lower tone Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD Leading Index m/m • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 2:30pm USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks Summary The USD is lower to end the day in New York after a two-way overnight session that saw the USD on the best levels of the day in early US trade. Overseas data was benign and after the London fix the Greenback began to slide off as traders squared positions ahead of US economic news tomorrow. Technical trading was the rule today and most action was on the sell side of USD as the majors were able to hold above important S/R during the day. Cable rallied over the 1.9600 handle briefly as stops were elected in both directions from overnight trade. Finding support again at the 1.9470 area stops from late shorts again were placed in range and the rate rallied on moderate volume. Making an inverted hammer on the daily charts traders expect the GBP to rally again on Thursday after US data; ahead of there expect a lot of two-way action and potential whipsaw although the 1.9470 area appears solid as support. EURO rallied all day and challenged overnight Asian highs above the 1.5520 handle late in the day but high prints at 1.5539 remained on the day; more two-way action is expected tonight ahead of US data in the morning. USD/JPY fell through light stops to make lows on the day at the 107.70 area before rebounding; Forex traders note that stops under the 107.50 area remain untouched for now and are building into the end of the week. Without a bit of upside help the rate appears ready to drop into reported support under the 107.00 handle. Swissy is also under pressure to end the day dropping to a low print at 1.0355 before a slight bounce; traders note that the rate is under the important 100 bar MA again into the close. Despite a rather lackluster session with little news to focus on the USD is weaker on technical factors again. I would look for the Greenback to continue to consolidate with a weaker tone overnight. Look for the majors to advance again during the day tomorrow as US news is not likely to be friendly in the morning. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5600 Resistance 2: 1.5580 Resistance 1: 1.5550/60 Latest New York: 1.5526 Support 1: 1.5440/50 Support 2: 1.5380 Support 3: 1.5350 Comments Near the highs around the 1.5550 area suggests more follow-on buying. Rate remains trapped inside range; pressured along with GBP but holds support at 1.5470 area. Looking for a long on next push into highs—then a pullback. If rate can clear the 1.5550 area and then fall to support around the 1.5500 area I think we are on the buy side at that point. Expect higher action all week as late shorts get squeezed. Rate finds support as more rumors of Russian and Mid-East buyers; Swiss private bank on the offer overnight. Should rate put in a long tail today a buy might be on the table. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5420 area in size; more said to be resting at the 1.5500 area; all in range. Overhead resistance appears firm at 1.5550 with stops above. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Unemployment Rate USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 109.20 Resistance 2: 108.80 Resistance 1: 108.50/60 Latest New York: 107.88 Support 1: 107.60/70 Support 2: 107.20/30 Support 3: 106.80 Comments Exponential reversal signal overnight, need to sell the rate. If short—let it work. Close under the 108.00 area significant today; look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.40/50 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. Today’s close under the 200 bar MA likely to draw some sympathy selling but watch volumes. Bids appear solid but so do offers; exporters on the offer all the way to the top overnight and active the past several days. Technical traders note fib defense area around today’s highs and never forget that the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit in the last week or so. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Stops likely rolled up under the 107.40 area again for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly. Bulls likely to take gains by end of day again if rumored stops above the 108.60/70 area are left untouched. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Tentative JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Overseas data USD negative • USD rally falters in US trade • Volumes lighter Overnight Preview • USD likely to remain technical in nature • Look for more downside pressure Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Summary The USD whipsawed today initially falling in Asia and then rallying in Europe before falling back again during New York trade. Not a lot of news supported the trade action today; overseas news was mostly supportive to the EURO and the GBP but both of them were under selling pressure early. US data this morning was USD neutral to negative but the Greenback held gains initially. Although the USD fell back to suffer minor losses against Swissy, Loonie and JPY—the USD held good gains against the GBP as UK data and rhetoric caused a stop-driven panic ahead of US trade today. Falling all the way down to a 1.9468 low print after a high at 1.9700 today’s GBP trading can only be described as “whipsaw”. The GBP recovered to trade 1.9580 into the close in New York making a mess of most balance sheets. Forex traders note that stops were run in both directions suggesting that the rate was long into the highs and then short into the lows. Leaving a long bid-tail like today’s action argues for more upside follow-on buying tomorrow. With a light economic calendar it is likely that trade will be technical the next 24 hours but with an upside bias. EURO rallied to the 1.5553 area before falling back with Cable but rallied into the end of the day again to close above the 1.5510 area suggesting more upside to come tomorrow. In my view, the majors head-faked everybody today and more losses for the USD are coming. Today’s data was seen as mildly neutral to slightly bearish and I think that most traders were temporarily focused on UK and Eurozone data this morning; once the PPI and Current Account data sink in and are compared with the poor housing data I think a further decline in the Greenback will be warranted. Look for the USD to sell off the next 24 hours or so. If holding longs in the majors get ready to add to open positions as more gains are coming I think. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/gbp-usd"]GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.9700 Resistance 2: 1.9650 Resistance 1: 1.9600/10 Latest New York: 1.9568 Support 1: 1.9500/10 Support 2: 1.9450/60 Support 3: 1.9420 Comments Rate bounces off support at the 1.9470 area; leaves a long bid wick suggesting the downside is a head-fake. Comments from BOE reverse the rate as traders panic on the sell-side. If long, need to be patient and wait for the panic to subside and the rally to resume. Rate finds stops layered under the 1.9600 area all the way down into active selling under the 1.9500 handle; if this selling is absorbed then the rate will recover fairly quickly I think. Rumors of UK inflation concerns keeps the rate buoyed above 2008 lows. Likely cross-spreaders on the move. A bounce is likely and aggressive traders can ADD if not already long. Spillover weakness from EURO still likely as would be strength. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think that will continue through this week and into the next. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders 2:30pm GBP BOE Governor King Speaks USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 109.20 Resistance 2: 108.80 Resistance 1: 108.50/60 Latest New York: 107.95 Support 1: 107.60/70 Support 2: 107.20/30 Support 3: 106.80 Comments Exponential reversal signal overnight, need to sell the rate. Close under the 108.00 area significant; look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.40/50 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. Today’s close under the 200 bar MA likely to draw some sympathy selling but watch volumes. Bids appear solid but so do offers; exporters on the offer all the way to the top overnight and active the past several days. Option defense noted at 107.80 through 108.20; but that has fallen this morning. Technical traders note fib defense area around today’s highs and never forget that the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit in the last week or so. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Can the rate top at the 108.50 area? Stops likely rolled up under the 107.40 area again for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly. Bulls likely to take gains by end of day if rumored stops above the 108.60/70 area are left untouched. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 7:50pm JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky. Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD retreats from Friday’s gain • US data benign—points to more losses • Speculation grows that USD will fall Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to consolidate • Expect two-way action Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Housing Starts • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Building Permits • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Current Account • 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate Summary The USD starts this week lower against most pairs but still two-sided as Monday draws to a close. In New York the USD saw the worst levels of the day so far as surging oil prices slammed equities and rallied the EURO. Oil prices slid off as volatility whipsawed energy prices taking the USD higher against the Swiss Franc and firming up against Yen but still unable to better the highs seen on Friday across the board. US forex trading data was benign as most reports came in lower than expected; TICS showed a decent cover but still not the whole picture as EURO remained firm near the 1.5500 handle all day. EURO rallied for a high print at 1.5520 early ahead of the London fix and keeping GBP up with it. Cable high during NY trade at 1.9690 with stops above the 1.9650 area driving the rate to the highs. Profit taking by longs dropped the rate back to the 1.9620/30 area into the close but EURO’s firmness into the end of the day suggest that both rates are poised for an additional leg higher overnight or during US trade tomorrow. If US data in the morning is again benign for the Greenback traders expect another leg lower for the USD during the day. USD/JPY remained above the 108.00 handle but under the 200 day MA making the technical picture better for the bears who argue a top is forming; USD/CHF also topping as the 1.0480 area again offers resistance all day to the USD. Highs at the 1.0523 level went unchallenged all day in NY suggesting that the Swissy is ready to drop back to below the 100 bar MA to start the week. Traders note that in all pairs the technical picture appears in focus near-term and expect dips to be bought and rallies to be sold. The big question is where are the large stops? Traders look for tomorrows’ data to push the Greenback in both directions so expect some whipsaw as the majors look for near-term direction. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5580 Resistance 2: 1.5550/60 Resistance 1: 1.5520 Latest New York: 1.5480 Support 1: 1.5350 Support 2: 1.5300/10 Support 3: 1.5280 Comments Another strong buy signal this morning suggests the rate will bottom; expect higher action all week as late shorts get squeezed. Today’s rally likely to encounter selling pressure up to the 1.5550 and 1.5580 areas; looking to ADD to open longs if you took some on Friday—if not; looking to open a long on any weakness. Rate finds support as more rumors of Swiss private bank bids at current levels; should rate put in a long tail today a buy might be on the table for Tuesday. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5420 area in size; more said to be resting at the 1.5500. Overhead resistance appears firm at 1.5550 now that the 1.5340 area of option defense fell. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR Trade Balance USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0580 Resistance 2: 1.0550/60 Resistance 1: 1.0520 Latest New York: 1.0443 Support 1: 1.0400 Support 2: 1.0380 Support 3: 1.0320/30 Comments Rate likely to draw additional selling pressure on a drop back under the 100 bar MA today; look for sell signals the past three sessions to hold. Look for a short early this week; aggressive traders who sold USD/CHF on the close Friday can look to add soon. Overhead resistance at the 1.0600 handle but rate may be getting boost from other USD strength in other pairs. Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again today but a sell off to end the day is needed. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling again so be ready for a short next week. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:15am CHF Industrial Production q/q Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Also Check our Forex brokers section.

Daily Forex Trading analysis - 16/06/08 Overnight Asia/Europe • G-8 no mention of FOREX, threatens oil traders • EU inflation revised higher • USD on the defense to start the week Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index • 9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions • 1:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m TICS and Pending Home Sales the big news on the day Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Housing Starts • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Building Permits • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Current Account • 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate Summary The USD is on the defensive this morning after opening firmer to mixed in Asia overnight. The G-8 Communiqué was seen as USD bearish as no mention of currencies was made only a warning to oil speculators creating a risk to global inflation. In my view, the G-8 is missing the point—if you want to curb global inflation risks than force CHINA TO FLOAT THE YUAN; don’t punish those smart enough to take advantage of supply/demand inequalities. In any case, the USD initially fell on the remarks and remained two-way until early European trade. Upwardly revised EU HICP inflation numbers provided a brief pop high in EURO printing a 1.5475 high before dropping back a bit to open New York at 1.5460 area; Forex traders note the rate saw Russian selling around the 1.5430/40 are with stops above the 1.5450 area providing the lift into the highs. Technical trade likely ahead of additional offers in the 1.5500 area but the upside bias is there to start the week. GBP followed EURO higher making a move for stops above the 1.9580 and 1.9600 areas for high prints at 1.9649 making Cable the biggest mover on the board to start eh week. Cross-spreaders again in focus traders say as EURO/GBP spreaders take gains off the table from last week. Volumes have been modest but the GBP appears to be holding the 2008 lows again and a rotation into resistance is now likely but traders expect two-way action to continue on the way. USD/JPY continues to defy logic as the rate trades beyond the 200-day MA this morning; high prints at 108.59 a new high for the weekly charts and upside is said to be layered with offers all the way to the 2008 highs at 110.20/30 area; traders note exporters again on the offer into the highs. A close beyond the 200 bar MA for this pair likely to draw a huge amount of buying so be ready to sell into any rally near-term. In my view, the fundamentals don’t support a higher USD anyway despite the rhetoric from Paulson, Bush and Bernanke; rallies are selling opportunities. USD/CHF has stalled into the 1.0500 handle again; high prints at 1.0523 were sold and the rate is a full handle lower at 1.0425 to start New York. The strong sell signals on the daily charts are still active and aggressive traders can sell the rate anytime in my view. Today’s data is not expected to be market moving but might add a bit to the USD heaviness seen to start the week; look for the USD to whipsaw today but close lower across the board. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5550 Resistance 2: 1.5500/10 Resistance 1: 1.5480 Latest New York: 1.5463 Support 1: 1.5350 Support 2: 1.5300/10 Support 3: 1.5280 Comments Another strong buy signal this morning suggests the rate will bottom; expect higher action all week as late shorts get squeezed. Looking to ADD to open longs if you took some on Friday—if not; looking to open a long on any weakness. Rate finds support as more rumors of Swiss private bank bids at current levels; should rate put in a long tail today a buy might be on the table for Tuesday. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5420 area in size; more said to be resting at the 1.5500. Overhead resistance appears firm at 1.5550 now that the 1.5340 area of option defense fell. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00am EUR Trade Balance forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/usd-chf"]USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0620 Resistance 2: 1.0580 Resistance 1: 1.0550/60 Latest New York: 1.0430 Support 1: 1.0420 Support 2: 1.0400 Support 3: 1.0380 Comments Rate likely to draw additional selling pressure on a drop back under the 100 bar MA today; look for sell signals the past three sessions to hold. Look for a short early this week; aggressive traders who sold USD/CHF on the close Friday can look to add soon. Overhead resistance at the 1.0600 handle but rate may be getting boost from other USD strength in other pairs. Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again today but a sell off to end the day is needed. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling again so be ready for a short next week. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:15am CHF Industrial Production q/q Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD holds gains but volumes drop • US data mixed • Higher equities and lower oil support USD Overnight Preview • Expect the USD to consolidate • No real news out ahead of US CPI on Friday Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% • 8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.5% • 9:55am USD Prelim Michigan Sentiment 59.5 Summary The USD is holding onto gains this afternoon after surprise US data helped underpin the Greenback; traders note that although the USD strength this week has been significant the majors are holding key S/R. Volumes have been only moderate and suggest that more news or rhetoric will be needed to break the USD higher as stops were cleared today leaving less interest on the bid. Forex traders note that the EURO in particular may be bottoming again as several shops have said that offers dried up on the move under the 1.5400 handle today as no one wants to be short EURO under 1.5400 traders say. In my view, the EURO has really squeezed out the weak longs and offered a lot of volatility the past 4-5 days suggesting that there is a serious fight for control of the market between 1.5400 and 1.5800; above the 1.5800 the bulls look for new highs above the 1.6050 area to fall quickly and below 1.5400 the bears look for a confirmation of a serious correction. Both sides appear locked in a major struggle and the first side to gain control will likely dominate trade for several weeks. Cable had lows at 1.9432 after US retail sales data showed a bigger than expected improvement but a short-covering rally never materialized and the rate stagnated around the 1.9460 area for the whole day. EURO low prints at the 100 bar MA were bought; closing around the 1.5420/25 area suggests a bounce is coming to end the week. USD/JPY continued to remain firm and tag the 108.00 handle; highs at 108.09 were on thin volume and the rate is laboring to hold gains. Exporters said to be seriously offering USD into the 107.80 area and above. Swissy also stalled at key resistance unable to make a break above the 1.0480 area with any confidence; high prints at 1.0492 before rotating lower to close under the 1.0430 area. In my view, this USD rally is a serious head fake and should be sold with both hands. Aggressive traders have a lot to work with now that we are at monthly highs and quarterly highs; expect the USD to fall back on big volume as the last bit of longs made their move today. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.9580 Resistance 2: 1.9550 Resistance 1: 1.9500 Latest New York: 1.9477 Support 1: 1.9420/30 Support 2: 1.9400 Support 3: 1.9380 Comments No follow-through on the day after two attempts for lows. Rate follows EURO lower into key support; a bounce is likely and aggressive traders can BUY under the 1.9500 handle. Spillover weakness from EURO still likely as would be strength. Technical objectives met at the 1.9500/50 area near-term; today could be a test of the lows. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think that will continue through this week. Today’s action suggests that more two-way trade likely ahead of US data today. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5500/10 Resistance 2: 1.5480 Resistance 1: 1.5450/60 Latest New York: 1.5422 Support 1: 1.5380/90 Support 2: 1.5350 Support 3: 1.5320 Comments Rate fails to follow-through and holds the 100 bar MA. Strong buy signal coming soon if not yet later this afternoon. Rate falls on rumors and stops; could be a washout. Stopped out of position so we will look at the long side again to end the week tomorrow. Rate finds support as more rumors of semi-official demand. Stops noted on a break under the 1.5500 area. Late longs squeezed as comments from ECB officials slow upside. Support under the 1.5440 area appears solid. If buying today—ok to hold longs for a return to the 1.5800 area this week. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5580 area in size with option defense expected at 1.5550. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July but today’s rhetoric a bit softer; I think that is only to stem a rapid rise too quickly. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through the rest of the week. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German CPI m/m 5:00am EUR Labor Cost Index 6:00am EUR Employment Change Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Today's Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD fails to hold gains • Stops run early • Two-way action suggests offers building Overnight Preview • Look for consolidation with a downside bias • USD likely to open lower in New York tomorrow Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% • 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% • 8:30am USD Import Price Index m/m 2.5% • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K • 10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3% • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 11:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Summary The USD was unable to hold gains earned yesterday as the Majors rallied across the board leaving the USD bulls with losses today. Although the rally by the GBP was muted compared to the rally seen in EURO traders remind that the week is not over yet and that the US data due the next 48 hours could easily be seen as unfriendly to the Greenback. GBP was unable to test highs made in Europe overnight as spillover strength from EURO supported the rate despite offers layered above the 1.9620 area. High prints at 1.9670 were offered by cross-spreaders and the rate held the 1.9620 area into the close. EURO made a new high in New York at 1.5588 before offers capped the move but the rate continued to firm all day and managed a close at the 1.5565 area suggesting that the EURO has some teeth to the bounce near-term. Volatility has been large in both pairs and traders expect that to continue. Both pairs may cover a lot of the same ground twice the next few days but at least in EUR I expect a firm close back over the 1.5600 handle to close the week. The ECB is set to hike rates and will continue to do so for the next few quarters and I don’t see the EURO falling back any more than a reasonable correction—which may have already happened with the trade action seen since February this year. USD/JPY is lower and failed to hold the 107.00 handle on the day; low prints at 106.55 were bought as rumors of official demand were seen but the rate closes lower on the day and more losses are coming in my view. Swissy is also under pressure and low prints in New York at 1.0307 are decidedly below stops seen at the 1.0350 area earlier in the day. Forex trader’s note that in all pairs light stops were elected as the USD lost ground but the larger stops are still working; look for more USD pressure near-term as technical trading dominates ahead of US data tomorrow and Friday. Look for book-squaring tonight ahead of Retail Sales data; not normally a market-mover but with unemployment on the hook tomorrow there is a chance of aggressive action by the USD bears if they like the data. USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 108.20 Resistance 2: 107.80 Resistance 1: 107.40/50 Latest New York: 107.02 Support 1: 106.40/50 Support 2: 106.20/30 Support 3: 105.80 Comments Rate grinds higher after breaking into support today; traders note model and momentum accounts buying USD Monday and Tuesday—good sign a top is forming. Traders report thinner conditions. Technical traders note a fib defense area around today’s highs and never forget that the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit in the last 72 hours; USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Still showing signs of a top, offers by exporters all the way to the overnight high at 107.77 traders say suggesting that the strength may be short-lived. Stops likely rolled up under the 106.80 area again for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to new monthly lows fairly quickly. Aggressive traders can sell anytime over the 107.00 area. Close over the 107.00 area a caution to the bears. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0520 Resistance 2: 1.0480 Resistance 1: 1.0440/50 Latest New York: 1.0321 Support 1: 1.0300/10 Support 2: 1.0250/60 Support 3: 1.0220 Comments Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again. Today’s close under the 1.0350 area suggests further losses to end the week. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling so be ready for a short; if we get a sell signal on the day today likely to enter a short. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Look for a sell signal again overnight. Light volumes suggest whipsaw coming. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 6:00am CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Below you may find a Forex Trading daily Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD continues to advance but volumes slow • Traders report thin order books • US data today benign Overnight Preview • Look for two-way trade • USD to consolidate Looking Ahead All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.8M • 11:30am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks • 12:15pm USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks • 2:00pm USD Beige Book Summary The USD continued to advance against the majors today as benign Balance of Trade data was ignored in favor of rhetoric from major sources. Overnight comments by US Fed chair Bernanke suggested that the US fed was ready to raise rates sooner-rather-than-later to combat inflation; traders took this to mean the Fed could move as early as the next month or two and bought USD across the board. Tripping stops placed close-in; all the major pairs dropped dramatically against the Greenback putting the USD into strong S/R to end the day. Profit taking by the shorts also helped propel the USD higher and for the most part the USD is holding strong gains on light volume. In my view, it is the volume issue that makes this rally a concern for me. Light volume rallies are almost always followed by a retracement and I think USD bulls need to be ready for a break lower. Supporting the USD also today were lower crude prices but as I have said before, I don’t see the overwhelming economic impact of oil at $128/BBL saving the economy as opposed to $136/BBL; the fact is energy costs TWICE what it did a year ago so where is the benefit to the USD? For the record, GBP fell back assisted by cross-spreaders from the highs at 1.9760 with low prints under previous support at 1.9517. The important issue with Cable in my view is that despite the grind lower in EURO all day posting low after low; GBP did not fall in tandem suggesting that perhaps the GBP is on near-term lows. EURO reversed from highs at 1.5655 to post lows late in the day at 1.5439 before drawing bids. Forex traders say the EURO saw bids all the way down and volumes were light. In my view, the EURO is bottoming again from the exact area it started from last week. Aggressive traders can buy EURO if not holding longs already. Swissy rallied along with USD/JPY and both pairs posted near-term highs; USD/JPY at 107.46 and Swissy at 1.0441. Both rates struggled to the highs and volumes were thin; traders say order boards were empty into the highs. Offers in both pairs said to extend a reasonable 50 pips higher and the upside may be exhausting itself. A surprise move by the Bank of Canada reversed the Loonie against the Greenback; falling back under the 1.0200 handle for a low print at 1.0194 before staging a slight recovery. Traders note the USD/CAD will have a hard time extending gains after the news. Look for the USD to remain two-way and quiet overnight. Technical trade may develop in which case a drop in the USD is more likely. EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5900 Resistance 2: 1.5880 Resistance 1: 1.5850 Latest New York: 1.5460 Support 1: 1.5480/90 Support 2: 1.5440/50 Support 3: 1.5390/5400 Comments Rate grinds lower all day as order boards thin out and sovereign bids are absorbed. Support under the 1.5440 area appears solid but no bounce on thin volumes. OK to hold longs for a return to the 1.5800 area this week. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5580 area. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July but today’s rhetoric a bit softer; I think that is only to stem a rapid rise too quickly. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through the rest of the week. Now that the break is out of the way we will re-enter our longs. Look for inside range day closing higher tomorrow. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:45am EUR French CPI m/m 0.4% USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 108.20 Resistance 2: 107.80 Resistance 1: 107.40/50 Latest New York: 107.30 Support 1: 106.20/30 Support 2: 105.80 Support 3: 105.40/50 Comments Rate grinds higher after the London fix, traders report thin conditions. Technical traders note a fib defense area around today’s highs and never forget that the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit in the last 72 hours; USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Still showing signs of a top, offers by exporters all the way to the overnight high traders say suggesting that the strength may be short-lived. Stops likely rolled up under the 106.20 area again for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to new monthly lows fairly quickly. Aggressive traders can sell anytime over the 107.00 area but I want to wait through the Tokyo open tonight. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD two-way is moderate trade • Majors correct into support but hold firm • US data surprises to the upside Overnight Preview • Look for the USD to trade two-way • Not a lot of news until later in the week Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Trade Balance -58.2B • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Summary The Greenback is mixed to end New York after a whippy start to the week. Initially weaker in Asia, the minor holiday along the Pacific Rim slowed action until the start of European trade. The USD gained a bit on the EURO and GBP as UK data was mildly supportive for Cable but was ignored as the New York session got underway. The release of US housing data was above expectations and the USD rallied into the middle of the day; however technical levels held firm and the USD’s recovery from the thrashing it got Friday is likely to be brief. Both ECB Trichet and US Tres. Sec. Paulson were speaking today and hinted that the USD strength was welcome but Trichet was less than enthusiastic about the USD’s potential to recover. He said that he welcomed the advances seen in recent weeks but warned that the oil shock seen on both continents was the result of “poor policies”; Paulson also said that intervention by the US Fed “can’t be ruled out”. In my view I think that Mr. Paulson takes the trading community for fools because anyone with any experience at all knows that it is impossible for intervention to accomplish anything of lasting value; the Forex trading community only sees that as an opportunity to add to winning positions. I suppose if the Treasury and the Fed wish to repeat the mistakes of the BOE then we should look to that as an opportunity. For the record, the GBP reversed from the highs at 1.9804 to close around the 1.9720 area leaving a strong selling wick on the day. EURO had more than a 200 point range today and closed lower but did hold the 50 bar MA in moderate trade. Most desks are expecting the EURO to again rally this week as the fundamentals are surely supporting a higher EURO. USD/JPY rallied but traders feel this is more in line with Yen weakness rather than USD strength. The rate held the weekly highs from last week and for all intents and purposes the rate is topping at the weekly highs as volumes were light on the move. Look to sell this USD strength the next 24-48 hours. No rush as the majors have a lot of give and take likely to develop near-term; US data is thin this week and may not be a factor. EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5900 Resistance 2: 1.5880 Resistance 1: 1.5850 Latest New York: 1.5721 Support 1: 1.5710/20 Support 2: 1.5680 Support 3: 1.5650/60 Comments Disappointing day for the bulls; close under the 50 bar argues for return to bearish action. Stops and offers noted above the 1.5790/1.5800 areas, COT data showed an increase in EURO shorts through last week and those are likely cleared now; fall back today tests the 50 bar MA; close below likely signals a further decline. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July but today’s rhetoric a bit softer; I think that is only to stem a rapid rise too quickly. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through the rest of the week. Now that the break is out of the way we will look for a place to re-enter our longs. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.8% 4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2% USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0380 Resistance 2: 1.0350 Resistance 1: 1.0300/10 Latest New York: 1.0291 Support 1: 1.0150 Support 2: 1.0110/20 Support 3: 1.00080 Comments Rate rallies to test the 50 bar MA where the stops were on Friday—fails to back a break higher stick suggesting the rate will rotate lower the next 24 hours. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling so be ready for a short; sell signal today suggests rate is ready to rotate lower again. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Look for a sell signal again overnight. Light volumes suggest whipsaw coming. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD mixed on follow-through • Model accounts buying USD/JPY • More losses expected later in the week Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -1.0% Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Trade Balance -58.2B • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Summary The USD is mixed to start New York this morning after trading two-way overnight. A minor holiday in Asia kept volumes light but the USD remained under pressure from Friday’s close. Importers were seen buying USD/JPY as concerns about higher commodity prices for raw materials, especially crude oil, kept manufacturers nervous to start the week. Model account demand was also seen and the USD/JPY traded to a high at 105.87 through European trade before settling back a bit as crude prices fell into late morning in Europe. Cross-spreading for Yen from Sterling and EURO helped support the USD a bit as well but traders note that the USD/JPY continues to trade higher despite weakness against other pairs and are cautious about shorts. EURO rallied on follow-through from Friday for a high print at 1.5845 but failed to take out a reported option barrier at 1.5850; traders expect the upside to be challenged through the 1.60 handle and advise buying dips. Higher-than-expected UK inflation data helped to fuel a rise in the GBP overnight; all measures of the data continued to point to high inflation y/y. High prints in the GBP were at 1.9796 and again cross-spreaders for Sterling-Yen helped to support the move. Swissy met the downside objective for the first break lower at the 1.0150 area; low print at 1.0147 before some profit taking by the shorts was seen. Forex traders note that the USD/CHF has made a technical breakdown on the daily charts and despite lower Gold prices than the last time USD was at this level more losses are expected. In my view, the two-way action seen overnight with the downside bias into technical objectives indicates that the Greenback is beginning to settle down from the panic seen late last week. I expect that pullbacks/rallies in the USD will be offered at previous technical levels and as long as the sentiment remains for a weaker US economy through the third quarter of 2008 I think we can expect to see the USD continue lower and test for 2008 lows. Last week’s sharp break is telling us something and we need to go with it. Look for the next rally in USD as a selling opportunity. Those who held the EURO longs into the objective should be flat now after having sold 1.5800 even. Look for more longs in EURO this week. EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5900 Resistance 2: 1.5880 Resistance 1: 1.5850 Latest New York: 1.5789 Support 1: 1.5750/60 Support 2: 1.5720 Support 3: 1.5650/60 Comments Stops and offers noted above the 1.5790/1.5800 areas, COT data showed an increase in EURO shorts through last week and those are likely cleared now. Liquidate longs into the 1.5800 handle—if you set a limit order and let it work over the weekend you were filled this morning. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July; sentiment changes rapidly and the rally last week has cemented that view I think. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through Monday. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.8% 4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2% USD/CHF Daily Resistance 3: 1.0350 Resistance 2: 1.0300/10 Resistance 1: 1.0250/60 Latest New York: 1.0193 Support 1: 1.0180 Support 2: 1.0150 Support 3: 1.0110/20 Comments “Doji” action early suggests the rate to finding bids; no doubt some are profit-taking from the shorts. Large stops elected under the 1.0350 area early in the break Friday; active selling found waves of stops suggesting the late longs got clipped hard. Rate closing under the 100 and 50 bar MA suggests more downside is coming—like a test of the monthly lows. Any rally likely to attract selling so be ready for a short. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe • USD quiet ahead of NFP • Technical trade in quiet volumes • Traders sidelined Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Nonfarm Employment Change -57K • 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 5.1% • 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% • 8:45am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks • 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% • 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.3B Looking Ahead to Monday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -1.0% Summary The USD is mixed to start New York; overnight action was subdued with ranges modest as traders get ready for the NFP report due out shortly. The majors remained inside established ranges quietly trading from technical support to resistance with a wary eye to close-in stops. Although none of the pairs ventured into the area of potential stops analysts remind that there is option expiries, fib retracements, trend line S/R and pivot points all within a few pips of this week’s highs and lows; should the NFP surprise one way or the other this morning the USD could be in for a wild ride to end the week. As expected, offers were seen in both Cable and EURO into the highs overnight as well as bids into the lows as large traders took advantage of both sides. GBP had a high print in Asia at 1.9608 before offers capped the move; drifting to lows in Europe at 1.9535 before bids lifted the rate to the 1.9570 area in light trade to start New York. EURO made early highs on follow-on buying as expected for a high print at 1.5619 before offers ahead of stops said to be resting at 1.5625 capped the move leaving stops untouched for now. Lows were a respectable 1.5571 showing the bulls aren’t letting go of the market ahead of US data today. Forex Traders report large bids on the dip and so far they are being absorbed. If those offers are late shorts attempting to get in ahead of a break that would explain the close-in stops layered above the 1.5625 area. USD/JPY is firmer despite the USD weakness elsewhere; staying firm above the 106.00 handle for a high print at 106.29 but not finding stops said to be above the 106.25 area. Lows were 105.82 making for a tight range and the rate is 106.15 in early New York; the only pair higher on the day. Swissy again closed below the 100 bar MA yesterday and weakness is evident, lows at 1.0370 and the rate is near the lows at 1.0384 to start New York; traders say the rate feels “heavy” ahead of US news. In my view, the NFP will either draw aggressive selling of USD or aggressive buying—the market is set up to either quickly extend losses or reverse completely as the technical and fundamental picture both suggest a cross-roads to end the week. Order books are thin according to some desks as yesterday cleaned out a lot of positions. If NFP is down the middle the markets might do nothing but in my view that is less likely; either the short side will have a windfall today or we will be stopped out on a reversal. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"] EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5720 Resistance 2: 1.5680 Resistance 1: 1.5620/30 Latest New York: 1.5599 Support 1: 1.5500 Support 2: 1.5440/50 Support 3: 1.5390/1.5400 Comments Rate doesn’t do much overnight; strong bids reported on dips but offers absorb suggesting a lot of “picking sides” is going on. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July; sentiment changes rapidly and a rally today will cement that view I think. Testing the weekly opening range late in the day Thursday suggests the rate will advance further on Friday; look for NFP to disappoint and add another leg higher. Rate initially lower on French name sales; Russians on the buy side. Recovery quickly suggests the rate is finally running out of offers. Hold longs and get ready to add on a recovery. Volumes light overnight traders say. Favor the long side on dips; upside bias still remains. The bottom is in my view, Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a lot closer now that the sentiment is changing. Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 16.7B 4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 107.00 Resistance 2: 106.80 Resistance 1: 106.40/50 Latest New York: 106.25 Support 1: 105.50/60 Support 2: 105.10/20 Support 3: 104.80 Comments Rate firms overnight but that is likely just drift; everybody waiting on NFP this morning. Offers by exporters said to be ready at the 106.30 area layered to 106.50 with option barrier at 106.50 also so the upside may be limited. Likely this rally is done near-term but the jury is out on how much a pullback will be bought; so far light bids are supporting. Stops are said to be under the 105.50 area. Expect more selling on overnight strength. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility after NFP shortly. Look for the news to scare out the longs by active selling to end the week. Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 1:00am JPY Leading Index m/m 18.2% 3:00am JPY Economy Watchers Current Index 7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -8.3% Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read Daily Forex Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD reverses from highs overnight, ends mixed • US data neutral to favorable but no follow-through • Volumes lighter as traders are confused Overnight Preview • Traders expect two-way action with the majors to consolidate • Likely the USD will remain technical until NFP on Friday Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 374K • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage • 12:00pm USD Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks Summary Despite neutral-to-better US data today the USD was unable to extend gains from yesterday and ended the day mixed. Better against GBP, the Greenback pushed Cable into early lows at 1.9424 after clearing stops under the 1.9500 handle in Europe. Forex traders note that cross-spreaders are on the offer and most of the action was related to non-USD pairs. Although the rate was on the defense most of the day traders report nice bids from sovereign names supported on every dip. Offers are said to be building around the 1.5480 area with stops layered above suggesting that late shorts are playing a very tight stop. EURO fell back a bit but was supported as well on dips; low prints at 1.5418 were never challenged and as oil prices rose and fell so did EURO making for whippy forex trading. Traders note that Russian names were active matching other calls for sovereign interest on the lows. Analysts remind that the 1.5500 area likely to offer at least one pullback if the rate rallies but stops are just above suggesting late shorts are running tight risk control similar to GBP. USD/JPY had a tight two-way range today but still inside yesterday; finishing back above the 105.00 handle at around the 105.15 area; large bids said to be under the rate around the 104.40 area but lows at 104.52 left those unchallenged. Traders note that volumes were light on the day and that down action appears to have some teeth to it but caution that the stops are still higher; roughly the 105.50/60 area. Could have some whipsaw also overnight. Swissy was firm around the 1.0420 area to end the day after bids were uncovered in the 1.0350/60 area this morning. Positive ADP data lifted the USD off of the lows but offers above the 1.0440 area contained the rally. Traders expect overhead resistance to hold but the rally could extend to 1.0520 area near-term. In my view, the USD went nowhere today and with good news out of the way it is likely that NFP will disappoint. How the market trades the next 24 hours is important to the set-up; I am looking for quiet two-way action to end in USD weakness by this time tomorrow. I don’t think the Greenback has what it takes to lift into new weekly highs when facing down a serious piece of data later this week. Should be a quiet overnight session; GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.9720 Resistance 2: 1.9680 Resistance 1: 1.9630/40 Latest New York: 1.9545 Support 1: 1.9520/30 Support 2: 1.9500 Support 3: 1.9480 Comments After all was said and done today, the GBP traded mostly sideways on light volumes. Dips were bought by large names traders say. Stops drive rate into the lows but bids and rumors of sovereign buys hold rate at the 1.9450/60 area on light volume to start New York. Trading in sympathy with EURO continues and EURO strength likely to spillover eventually into cable. Stopped out of longs overnight; OK to look at the long side again as support may be forming at current levels; might want to wait 24 hours. Lots of potential for day traders the next 24-48 hours as the rate is likely to stay range bound ahead of US data later in the week. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Expect continued whipsaw around US news this morning. Bernanke comments a total head-fake in my view. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1% Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement 7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 105.80 Resistance 2: 105.50/60 Resistance 1: 105.30 Latest New York: 105.27 Support 1: 104.40/50 Support 2: 104.00/10 Support 3: 103.70/80 Comments Rate is stuck in-range; no follow-through either way but longs getting nervous I think. Expect more selling on overnight strength. Hold shorts—nothing to do but wait as the bulls run for the exits. Model accounts on the bid last night a good sign the rate will fall back. Expect lots of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility later today. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Trading Analysis Today’s US Dollar Trading • Bernanke comments roil the USD, active buying lifts into resistance • Volumes die after initial lift • USD falls back late to reverse gains. Overnight Preview • USD likely to drop further overnight • Expect two-way action Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) • 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 27.4% • 8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change -30K • 8:30am USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.5% • 8:30am USD Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.0% • 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 51.0 • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories -8.8M Summary Today’s USD trading offered a bit of a surprise as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spoke openly about the desire for a higher USD on world markets. Initially sparking a massive short-covering rally the comments panicked some traders into aggressive buying. Better-positioned traders used the rally to open aggressive shorts or to add to existing shorts as the resulting rally failed to trigger any technical reasons to hold long USD. In fact, quite the opposite in my view. With the highest single volume seen in weeks on the day, none of the major pairs advanced beyond any near term technical resistance or support. As I mentioned this morning, the entire move was a sucker play and a bull-trap. Less-experienced forex traders panicked into a long USD position only to be caught in the market at the close with no gain. Although the ranges were impressive, the USD failed to hold gains across the board. High prints were sold and never challenged twice suggesting that the rates had no follow-through interest past the first rush of panic. For the record, GBP fell back to the 1.9600 area; low print at 1.9604 before sovereign demand emerged and the rate rallied back to close above the 1.9630 area making for a technical bottom. EURO fell through stops for a low print at 1.5410 but found solid bids to post a late rally back to the 1.5465 area. USD/JPY rallied on stops and active buying for a high print at 105.57 but found large offers and fell back under the 104.80 area on the close making for a large selling wick on the day. Swissy whipsawed as well, high prints at 1.0492 before dropping back to close a full handle lower at 1.03895 area. Across the board, the USD whipsawed everybody and once the dust settled—there was no change to the big picture making today a great day to sell USD. Look for tomorrow’s ADP private payrolls data to be unfriendly to the USD and the sell-off to resume in earnest. forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.5650 Resistance 2: 1.5620/30 Resistance 1: 1.5550 Latest New York: 1.5460 Support 1: 1.5410/20 Support 2: 1.5380 Support 3: 1.5330 Comments Bernanke comments create a bear-trap sell-off; aggressive traders can get long again anytime as the rate fails to attract enough active selling. Late shorts getting creamed on the close. Volumes still only moderate but sellers can’t get the edge. Favor the long side on dips; upside bias still remains and a limit order is the way to go I think. Weekly studies show buy signals as well. Support at 1.5500 gave way to light stops after the news but the rate found bids and now has crossed the opening range. The bottom is in my view, Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a long ways from here now. Look for model and momentum accounts active on the offer overnight Monday and/or Tuesday. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 3:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks 4:00am EUR Services PMI ® 50.6 5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2% USD/JPY Daily Resistance 3: 105.80 Resistance 2: 105.50/60 Resistance 1: 105.30 Latest New York: 105.20 Support 1: 104.20/30 Support 2: 103.70/80 Support 3: 103.40/50 Comments Volumes died back to zero once the Bernanke comments were out; lack of follow-through suggests a total head-fake for the longs. Hold shorts—nothing to do but wait as the bulls run for the exits. Expect lots of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week. Rate is probing for stops on the other side of the 104.00 handle and first attempt cleared them all as the rate topped 105.20. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility later today. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers section DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.