MARKET MANIPULATION

[FxTP]

eurusd: 220 pipsi in 3 secunde. Oare pica America?

va bagatzi short pana la 13300?

[tavi_star]

You know, it's a bull market

 

REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR by Eugene Lefevre

 

 

... there was one old chap who was not like the others. To

begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he

never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He

was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.

He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked

the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when

somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very

politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip

turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that

nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It

was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and

could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the

firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could

see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey

behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit

of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin

resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced

into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others,

used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a

friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.

They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he

would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they

had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the

same.

The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and

then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"

Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his

fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say

very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market,

you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman

wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of

course I did not get his meaning.

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the

office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he

rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to

John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an

order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly

three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to

go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold

out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that

tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if

it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of

apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have

just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled

to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So

you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."

Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the

original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always

thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even

before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.

"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey

gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.

"Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on

the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the

deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic

gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just

sold every share I owned!"

From his voice and manner you would have conservatively

estimated it at ten thousand shares.

But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No!

No! I can't do that!"

:'What?" yelled Elmer.

"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great

trouble.

"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"

"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.

Indeed, I am, sir. But --"

"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven

points in ten days? Didn't it?"

"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I

couldn't think of selling that stock."

"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful

himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.

"No, I couldn't."

"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.

"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as

though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of

his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you

do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it

back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to

yourself."

"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my

dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and

then where would I be?"

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked

over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a

stage whisper. "I ask you!"

I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on

Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven

points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on

the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when

I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do

you know about that?"

"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my

job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when

you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and

panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is

something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I

hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase

your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can

only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I

paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a

second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had

the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he

strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

Editat Martie 18, 2009 de tavi_star

[tavi_star]

Indicators and Dr. Joe

 

Thank you for the PMs on indicators and price action. Rather than answer individually, I will do it through this post, if I may.

 

I’m not here to fight with anyone over whether to use indicators or not for we have a larger fight with the market makers than amongst us little guys. I respect the traders who can make consistent profits with indicators as it is something I have tried and cannot do. If anyone has an indicator that produces CONSISTENT profits then, please, show us the way.

 

In the meantime, I will continue with what works for me: raw price action using price, volume, S&R, momentum, exhaustion, cycles, time, harmonic analysis, market sentiment with a splash of funny mentals thrown in.

 

With regard to my transition from having indicators up the ying yang on my charts to now with just volume and the 20ema and the 50sma, I need to share my experience with an old time trader, Dr. Joe, which will also show how stubborn I was.

 

Back in the early 90s when I was getting really serious with my trading, I was buying signals via fax. In those days there was no email and no computer trading and we had to either plot our own charts or buy them from a charting service. We then had to calculate our own indicators and then hand draw them on our charts. This really helped in understanding what indicators did (take the data from “n” days ago) and how they worked.

 

One time I faxed my questions back to the signal service and the reply I got back was that I had sent it to the wrong number. Also written on my fax was that I was wasting my money on signals and to contact Dr. Joe. After a few fax exchanges, he sent a handwritten fax saying something like “trading is easy, you don’t need nuthin fancy (he was a good old Texas boy) just buy when it’s going up and sell when it’s going down, that’s all there is to it”.

 

Dr. Joe used to work for NASA as a nuclear physicist on the Space Program and was a Professor, PhD with just about every physics and maths qualifications there are or you could think of. He got fed up of the bureaucracy and politics at NASA and as a part time investor in stocks , decided to go full time as, in his own words, “the price cycles are just some sort of fancy sine waves with decay and acceleration distorting them and should be real easy to plot and forecast.”

 

Well after over 5 years doing triple integrated, double differentiated Fourier transforms, harmonic frequency analysis, fractal filters and theorems and goodness knows what else that, although I have a PhD, just ran circles around me. He said he got so frustrated that although he could plan and predict space craft trajectories, orbits, landings etc, he could not forecast even one bar of prices into the future. Not one to quit, he decided that there was some external force that he was not taking into consideration and the only place it could be was on the trading floor where the action took place.

 

Through his connections, he eventually got an invitation to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and was shown the futures or commodities pit (can’t remember which). His sole purpose of going there was as a spy or detective to find out exactly how things worked so that he could write it into his software. He told me he was “amazed and dumbfounded” at what he saw and heard which forever changed his life. (I had all this written up in my trading notes in my files but I can’t find them so I’m using this post to “replenish my notes”).

 

He arrived at the pit before opening time and saw all the floor traders congregated together in a meeting. He saw this as strange as he thought they were out and out competitors with each other.

 

What he saw in the first 15 to 30 minutes he would never have believed even if his best friend had told him. At the open, the overnight trades, which were long positions, were put through but he detected the traders entering them were giving signals to the other traders. After the orders were put through there was “nothing” – they just waited to see how the market reacted to those orders.

 

He then observed what he thought were illegal practices but later learned it to be what actually goes on each and every day. During this “dead” time, the floor traders were reviewing their orders in the pipeline and then on a given signal, a group started selling followed by another group. Then when a certain lower price had been reached, another signal was given and the same groups then bought back amongst themselves. He later learned this was called “Running the Stops” and what they had done was found out where all the orders were, which were below lows, swing lows and elsewhere, and just driven the price down to fill them and take them out so that they had a clean order sheet! Not satisfied with that, they then collectively took the price back to where it opened!

 

After this and now with the market moving, orders started to come in and when a large order came in from a bank, fund or other large institution, the trader with the order gave a signal before entering it. After entering it, the traders went quiet again. They were looking to see how the market reacted to that order. When they saw more buy orders coming in, they just bought more and more and kept on buying until a signal from a trader that he had a large sell order. Again the sell order was entered and the traders went quiet as they waited for a reaction from the market. He learned that the floor traders were waiting to see whether the sell order was going to be accepted as profit taking or full blown shorting. He said this went on all day long with the floor traders just “piggy-backing” on which ever way the market moved. He said he could see no skills or qualifications (other than being a whore – a very rich whore, he said) whatsoever in what the floor traders did.

 

On his way back to Houston, he thought about how to use what he witnessed to HIS advantage.

 

His first action was to throw out all his indicators, forecasts and technical analysis. He told me that there is no analysis, indicator or other program now or in the future, that can analyse or predict human behaviour and specifically, human emotions. He had seen for himself that there was nothing technical or logical in how the floor traders (now better known as Market Movers) traded and therefore any analysis or thinking from “off the floor” was an absolute waste of time.

 

His second action was how to beat “those whores” on the floor as he called them. He said he thought over just about every scenario imaginable and just as he was running out of ideas, it came to him. If you can’t beat, them join them although as a very devout and God fearing Christian, he didn’t think it was ethical. Unable to find another alternative, he decided he had no options left but to try and do, “off the floor” what they did on the floor.

 

From this came his very simple method:

Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

 

He went on to make $millions doing this and I subsequently learned he passed away a very rich and contented man knowing that he had beaten the “whores” at their own game.

 

I learned all this in a few telephone conversations with him but he lost his patience with me when I still questioned his method. He wouldn’t answer my calls so I reverted back to faxes. Again, I can’t remember it word for word but I sent a simple fax saying:

 

“How do you know when to stop buying?”

 

On the same fax was his handwritten reply, “When it stops going up.”

 

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up?”

 

His handwritten reply, “When it starts going down.”

 

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up and starts going down?”

 

His handwritten reply, “When people start selling.”

 

After going round like this in riddles, I pleaded with him to “just give it to me straight”.

 

He sent a fax saying this would be his last communication with me and that if I didn’t understand how to buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, I had no business trading.

 

His final paragraph was one which I ignored, like everything else he told me, until a couple of years ago when I realized what a dumb, stupid, arrogant, stubborn idiot I had been:

 

He said I would only be wrong twice using his simple method:

“Once when you buy at the top and once when you sell at the bottom.”

 

I just ignored this as a smart – ass answer but still tried to do what he said. Unfortunately, and as Sod’s law dictates, I tried to do it in a consolidation and lost on every trade which had me buying when I should have been selling etc.

 

I tried and lost again and then eventually lost my way in the quest for the Holy Grail in Indicator Land.

 

Now, with all my experience and thousands of lost $ behind me, the light came on!

 

My understanding of what he was telling me is this:

 

Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retrace/dip. Keep buying until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.

 

Sell when prices are moving down. Sell each retrace/rally. Keep selling until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.

 

I have not traded like this as I have my own method/style now but on the look backs I have done it works very well. Obviously, the trendier the price, the better it works.

 

In my later communications with other floor traders, I told them about Dr. Joe and what he told me, and asked them if it was true. As you would expect, each and everyone vehemently rejected it as absolute rubbish.

 

Sometimes I wonder if old Dr. Joe was smoking something but then when I see those long legged neutral dojis before a significant move, I know he was right.

 

Thank you, Dr. Joe

 

 

Rock n Roll,

Strat

Editat Martie 18, 2009 de tavi_star

[tavi_star]

You know, it's a bull market

 

Pe dollar!!!!

[tavi_star]

Beat The Odds In Forex Trading - 2006.pdf, pag. 116

 

by Igor Toshchakov

 

 

The majority of traders in the market are always wrong, and the most

common and widespread opinions about the future market are (in the prevailing

majority of cases) incorrect. Conclusions and choices made by a

crowd are always wrong and lead to money losses in speculative trading

operations. To avoid possible disappointments, it will be useful for beginners

to remember the following three basic postulates:

 

1. Try to have no opinion concerning the future market’s behavior. Trade

only according to your trade system and only on signals that the market

itself gives you.

 

2. Try to avoid wishful thinking. If you have an open position, first of all

pay attention to the trading signals that contradict your point of view,

instead of those that confirm it.

 

3. Listen attentively to other traders’ opinions. Share your ideas with

colleagues on Internet forums and in personal dialogues. If half of

your colleagues-traders approve your idea, double your vigilance.

Check up and analyze the situation once again, looking for a possible

mistake. If you have found that the absolute majority of traders share

your point of view, immediately abandon your initial plan of trading

and make a new one. In the new plan, you should assume that the

market most likely would choose an opposite direction. The absolute

disagreement of the majority with your opinions on current events in

the market is additional and valuable confirmation of the correctness

of your position. Such confirmation should give you an additional reliance

on the correctness of your decision.

Editat Martie 18, 2009 de tavi_star

[msjohntm]

eurusd: 220 pipsi in 3 secunde. Oare pica America?

va bagatzi short pana la 13300?

 

Eu cred ca doar dupa ce se duce spre 1,38 urmatorul meu nivel Fibo. Asta pentru ca s-a apropiat si de SMA200 pe D1 pe care cred ca o va strapunge si apoi va merge in sus. E doar parerea mea.

Editat Martie 18, 2009 de msjohntm

[Scrat]

asta este unul din cele mai simple si solide concepte ale "analizei tehnice"!!! mergi cu presupunerea ca trendul este intact pina la proba contrarie. toate pozitiile vor fi profitabile, cu exceptia ultimei... care va iesi eventual in pierdere. eventual. cu cit iti alegi trendul pe un timeframe mai mare, cu atit ai sanse mai multe sa iesi in profit.

fain post! nota zece, tavi!!!

 

Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retrace/dip. Keep buying until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.

 

Sell when prices are moving down. Sell each retrace/rally. Keep selling until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.

[tavi_star]

MANIPULAREA LA STIRI

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Mp -- News Trading For Newbs !

 

NEWS TRADING !

 

this may NOT happen every single time, USUALLY if there is multiple news from different countries being released, but if interested in the US market, watch for what direction the price is moving BEFORE THE NEWS is released, including the night before, and then understand that if the FINAL trade will be LONG, the banks are pushing the price DOWN so as to have the greatest runup possible and vice versa and they will continue to move the price down, even if the news is GOOD, until it hits the H1 support level ---- if the price is going up, it will continue going up to the H1 top resistance level, and then the banks will SHORT the danged thing all the way down !

 

Once you look for it, its pretty danged simple to see whats going on, and you can easily work the first position for at least 30 minutes and the second position for the rest of the day.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Mp --- More On Trading News, For Those Who Missed The Last One!

 

one more post of mine on a "trading news" thread that i thought of interest.

 

IT WORKS but you should try it a few times on a demo to get your finger reflexes down and to appease any squeemies you gots about doing this.

 

TRY THIS ! (on a demo or on paper)

 

understand that the banks have tons of analysts working on this every second, as well as some well placed "moles" (well, thats supposition, but i know i would do it if i ran a central bank) so they have a pretty danged good idea of what the news is, what effect it will have, and trade accordingly.

 

the action of the price before the news release will give away what will happen, and you only need WATCH a few times to confirm what i say.

 

if the news will be GOOD, the price DROPS during the night and definitely before the news and will continue dropping for the first half hour after the release with everyone scratching their heads because the news was GOOD.

 

What happens is THEN, once the H1 or H4 support is reached (usually around 10am est) THE MARKET REVERSES and UP SHE GOES, just as if it was all planned (cause IT WAS all planned)

 

reverse the situation for BAD news, and you can now see why i LOVE news, dont worry about slippage cause im already in the trade before the news release, take the REAL direction trade after the half hour, when things slow down, and set my tp points based on the visible support and resistance areas on the higher timeframes.

 

IF YOU WATCH, and take note of what happens and how the prices are moved, you will be AMAZED at how simple it is to trade news, but if you try to catch the moves, once theyre moving, you get the wide spreads, slippage and all the other stuff everyone complains about !

 

Before you try it, DEMO the sucker and see if you agree with me or want to throw stones ---- betcha there be NO stones !

Editat Martie 30, 2009 de tavi_star

[tavi_star]

The Hidden History of Money & New World Order Usury Secrets

 

by Alexander James

 

 

Free Download

 

 

History of how the current enslaving monetary system, in which Banklords get a credit monopoly (which gives them the power to create unlimited money from nothing at no liability to themselves because it is redeemable for goods or services produced by anyone forced to accept the private Federal Reserve dollar currency notes and cheques) and use our tax system to collect the fraudulent interest was brought about by the forces of banking family dynasties working to establish a tyrannical New World Order through a series of wars, depressions, deficits, propaganda and crimes in which good politicians are murdered or removed by the New World Order (NWO) mafias (CIA, Mossad, MI5/6, Vatican, Jesuits, CFR, Bilderbergers, Trilateral C., Knights, etc). How ancient pagan cults are elitist-made inventions designed to allow their priesthood (Pharisees) to con value out of the public and how they are leading everyone back towards feudal fascist enslavement.

Editat Aprilie 10, 2009 de tavi_star

[Scrat]

Dr. Joe does electronic trading - Part I

 

I have promised this many people shortly after my first Dr. Joe post and started it a few times but could not get it finished because I couldn’t find all my notes, paperwork etc. The Easter recess has given me time to get some of my stuff together.

 

From Dr. Joe’s visit to CME, we know a little bit about what went on in the Futures/Commodities pits at CME in the early 90s. Before we move on to the crazy 21st Century world of trading with electronic wizardry and gadgetry, we need to understand how we worked with our brokers at that time.

 

In the late 80s and early 90s BC (Before Computers) when we were drawing our own charts, doing our own indicator calculations and drawing indicators ahead of charting packages, we had a similar mechanical order placing process. Once we had decided on a trade, we had to place our order with our broker. We would call our contact at the broker (or fax, in my case, when I was living and working overseas) and give him our trade. Even though the broker knew what we meant, we still had to speak “their lingo”, so we had to say something like “Account abc123, Long 1 March Deutschemark at 2.1020 or better”. The broker would then give us a ticket number which we recorded in our files.

 

The broker would then send our order, now with a ticket number, to either their “runner” at the exchange who in turn would give it to their assigned trader in the pit, or send direct to their trader in the pit depending on the size of the broker.

 

The pit trader would read the order and try and find a seller to take the other side of the trade. Remember, this is a ZERO SUM BUSINESS, someone wins and someone loses – always. The pit trader would find a seller with his “hue and cry” by screaming and shouting and waving his arms frantically until another pit trader screamed, shouted and waved back with a price. That price was then recorded on the ticket number and sent back to your broker. Now, depending on your broker and how big of an account you were at your broker, he would either call you back immediately with your “fill” or wait for later to do all his calls.

 

So then hours later, in my case, I would be notified of my “fill” against my ticket number which was duly recorded in my files. Sometimes I wouldn’t get my “fill” until a day later and after receiving the previous day’s data. Talk about “trading blind”

 

After receiving our “fill” we would then call the broker with our Stop Loss order. “Account abc123, Short 1 March Deutschemark at 2.0020 on a Stop.”

 

When it was time to get out of our position, we had to do the same thing again. Call the broker, “Account abc123, Short 1 March Deutschemark at the market.” In those days, and still with Futures and Commodities, you had to take the opposite of your original position to Close your order. The same routine then happened with the broker and their pit trader until eventually, they would get back to you with your “fill”. Because of all this “mechanical” delay, your fill would be nothing like you expected and often times when you were expecting a small profit or break even, your “fill” would be at a loss.

 

In those days, the “little trader” really got stuffed between the brokers and the pits because we were a “nuisance to them”. Our little “1 contracts” were a pain in the armpit to them and the pit trader would always put these “little” orders to the bottom of his pile while he focused on the huge orders from the “big boys”.

 

Instead of adding an extra “1 contract” to the big boys’ fills, which would have been at far better prices, the pit traders would wait while they had cleared all the orders and then start on ours. This meant that we would ALWAYS get the worst fills – our fill price would always be far away from our original price. Trying to use Limit Orders was a joke for exactly the same reason and they would never get filled.

 

We had to keep meticulous records because there were so many errors and mistakes in those days. Most of the errors would be on our part where we would have extra positions still open because we would have not closed our open positions correctly. This got real crazy when you were trading different currencies and commodities.

 

Now fast forward to the 21st Century AC (After Computers). I am indebted to this information from a Professional Trader of some 40 years trading vintage who visited the CME Exchange many times through his golf buddies who were either floor traders or in some way connected with the Exchange. I thought this information was from a couple of years ago but when I eventually found my notes, it was from 2005. How I wish my trading account grew as fast as my idea of a couple of years did!

 

His initial observation in visiting the Exchange was one of shock. He had seen the Exchanges and Pits on TV many times and thought he knew what to expect.

Like all of us, I guess, he envisaged a very busy open pit for futures trading but what he didn’t expect was the size of the Exchange Floor with hundreds of people each sat in front of a wall of computers!

 

On closer inspection, each Market Maker had 30 or 40 monitors on his “wall” all linked together so that he could access each individual screen with a touch of his mouse. He was just absolutely amazed that one person could follow what was happening on so many monitors as he personally, had difficulty following his 3 monitors and still retain his sanity!

 

What really surprised him was that there were very few charts, sometimes none at all, on the monitors. What was on just about every monitor was price, price activity, buying and selling pressure and other information related to price. “What were these guys doing with all that information?” he wanted to know. Well, 10 years or so later from Dr. Joe’s visit, with the latest computer hardware, software, electronic wizardry and gadgetry, these guys are not doing anything any different to what Dr. Joe observed. They are WATCHING and REACTING to PRICE.

 

The big difference now is technology. The data shown on each monitor is integrated and networked into other computers and their software which automatically responds to changes in volatility, bid and ask spreads, volume spikes and abnormalities, exceptional order quantities, institutional trades, Government Bank trades and everything and anything influencing price activity.

 

For example, if volatility changed on a particular instrument, the percentage increase or decrease was immediately reflected in the Market Makers bids and asks automatically without any human input whatsoever. Similarly, and at the same time, if there were bids and asks which were incorrectly matched or “discounts” based on their software, trades were instantly and automatically initiated by the software based on the programming and parameters set by the Market Maker.

 

The Market Makers have their plans programmed into their software so that when all the criteria are met, their software takes over and issues the trade. This then highlights the importance of the trading plan. Where ours is mechanical, theirs is fully automated.

 

So, the bottom line has not really changed, the Floor/Pit traders/Market Makers are still “piggybacking” on what the market does – buy when price goes up and sell when price goes down – it’s just that now, they have very sophisticated computers and software to give them advanced notice and automatically place their trades for them.

 

Understanding what we are up against, (the big boys with their sophisticated hardware and systems), confirms how difficult it is (not impossible) for the little trader and how important it is for us to thoroughly know and understand PRICE ACTION and trade WITH the big boys (not against them).

 

In Dr. Joe does electronic trading – Part II, we will discuss the role Brokers and Exchanges play in Forex.