Influenta traderului asupra pretului

[tradelover]

adică să ne ... manipulăm intre noi

[gigi]

E un mit ca retail-ul NU misca piata. Unele statistici (nu le gasesc acum) estimeaza retail-ul la 5% din volum. Asta ar face din retail al 7-lea mare jucator global (conform topului de aici - http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USLDE6460UN20100507)

 

Iar cele 4 trilioane contin spot, forward si swap-uri. Spot-ul pe care jucam noi are doar 1.5 trilioane zilnic. Si suma asta include TOATE perechile.

 

O pereche poate fi mutata cu sume mult mai mici decat cred majoritatea traderilor. Dintr-un paper Oanda:

================

Currency markets have a daily turnover of spot transactions of approximately 1.4 trillion USD; this is a mind-boggling number, equivalent to approximately 10 percent of the annual US GNP. The daily turnover translates into a flow per minute of 1 billion USD, which is still a lot of money. If we go a step further and compute the volume per second, then the turnover collapses to only 16 Mio per second, which equates to 8 Mio buying and another 8 Mio of selling volume for all exchange rates together.

 

On a second by second basis, the volume is a mere trickle; this is a huge contrast to the mind-blowing number for a full 24 hour trading day. For the

individual exchange rates, the second by second volume numbers are a lot smaller: for EURUSD with the biggest turnover, the volume per second is 3.5 Mio USD and, for a minor exchange rate, such as USDCAD, only a trifle of 250′000 USD per second.

 

Compared to the trillions that are traded every day, it is thus paradoxical that already small market orders can move the market. For minor currencies,

50 Mio is enough to move the exchange rate by 0.2 percent. For the major currencies such as EURUSD, the necessary amount is roughly 100 to 200 Mio depending on the time of day; these numbers are peanuts in the bigger picture. To move the EURUSD by 0.2 percent, a trade of 200 Mio USD needs to be made, which requires as little as 5 Mio USD in terms of equity. It is astounding that an economy with a GDP of 14 trillion can have its exchange rate moved by 0.2% due to the actions of a trader with 5 Mio USD of equity.

================

 

Alte statistici recente raporteaza scaderea sumei medii de tranzactionare pe forex (inclusiv interbank) de la $3M acum 3 ani la $1.2M anul asta. HFT and all that. Asta e o suma tipica de tranzactionare doar de 12 ori mai mare decat cea folosita de multi retaileri.

 

Acum vreo 2 ani, in perioada lui de glorie, FAP Turbo era folosit de atat de multi traderi incat pe sesiunea asiatica MISCA pietele. Alt articol pe tema asta: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/09/30/74721/mrs-robo-jones-starts-to-make-an-fx-impact/

 

Nu am sa discut de ce nu conteaza prea mult daca ordinele ajung in piata "reala" sau raman in galeata la broker. Ideea e simpla - pui in bucket, da ce faci daca bucket-ul se umple prea mult? De ex 80% din pozitiile clientilor Oanda acum sunt long pe USD/JPY. Chiar credeti ca asta inseamna ca Oanda e short pe USD/JPY, fiind de cealalalta parte? Oanda nu joaca directional, are alte scheme de atac.

[dandesign]

Eu si daca deschid o pozitie de 100 $ in 9 din 10 cazuri pe termen scurt pretul merge impotriva mea ) oare influentez piata ?

Nu ma refer la spread.

 

Am deschis 10 pozitii aleator mai demult , pe demo fara sa ma uit pe grafic cu SL 10 pipsi si TP 8 pipsi , 8 au luat Stop Loss (spread 1.2 pipsi)

Cred ca daca o sa fac asta de 10 ori tot acelasi raport obtin.

 

Cine rade la urma, gandeste mai incet.

 

Am refacut azi experimentul cu SL 6 pipsi si TP 4 (5 ordine):

Editat August 12, 2011 de dandesign

[rusty_hawk]

E demo! Ce vrei sa influentezi ?