Grafice, analize, tranzactii

[gogu]

Tranzactiile long gbpjpy s-au terminat prin atingerea SL.

 

Am intrat prost si am pus SL intr-un loc prost ales. Daca era mai sus, pierderea era mai mica, dar crestea probabilitatea de a fi atinsa. Daca era mai jos , aveam sanse mai mari sa nu fie atinsa (nici nu ar fi fost), dar in cazul in care era atinsa, pierderea era mai mare.

Inainte de a intra in tranzactie am considerat ca precedentul suport, care acum s-a transformat in rezistenta, era intre 206.8-207.5 Ar fi trebuit sa pun SL sub aceasta zona, nu in mijlocul ei. Nu am facut-o pentru ca m-am gandit ca ar fi un SL prea mare... si am uitat de regula care spune ca daca ti se pare ca tranzactia necesita un SL prea mare mai bine nu intri sau mai astepti. Nici nu am asteptat, nici nu am renuntat, iar SL-ul cred ca l-am pus in cea mai prosta zona posibila. Acum (cu mintea de pe urma ) ma gandesc ca daca as fi avut posibilitatea, exact in acea zona as fi incercat sa fac stop hunting. Nu stop hunting in sensul ca brokerul (oanda, in cazul de fata) ar fi manipulat pretul pentru a-mi atinge mie SL, ar fi ridicol. O discuti interesanta despre acest tip de stop hunting gasiti aici.

 

In cazul de fata, cred ca SL-ul meu a fost chiar in mijlocul "campului de lupta" dintre taurii care au preluat controlul incepand de la 205.5 si ursii care erau short de la 210-211 si incercau sa impinga pretul in jos pentru a-si proteja SL-urile. Pana la urma taurii au castigat, pacat insa ca nu mai sint si eu printre ei.

 

Primele doua saptamani ale lunii nu au fost prea rele, pana acum balanta este de +906 pips, dar nu sint multumit. Am pierdut ocazia de a vinde usd contra eur, gbp, chf, yen, cu toate ca am vazut de la inceput ca dolarul e slab si se depreciaza in raport cu toate celelalte. De ce? Pentru ca nu am crezut ca vanzarea dolarului o sa dureze asa mult, si am asteptat o corectie pentru a intra in tranzactii. Corectia nu a venit iar eu am stat pe margine in timp ce trendul continua in forta. Nici acum nu am curaj sa vand usd, posibilitatea unei corectii mi se pare prea mare.

 

Trebuie sa ma mai gandesc la ce spunea Livermore:

They say you never grow poor

taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich

taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two

thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me. About the

time I discovered what a small percentage of what I should have

made I was getting I discovered something else, and that is that

suckers differ among themselves according to the degree of

experience.

The tyro knows nothing, and everybody, including himself,

knows it. But the next, or second, grade thinks he knows a great

deal and makes others feel that way too. He is the experienced

sucker, who has studied not the market itself but a few remarks

about the market made by a still higher grade of suckers. The

second-grade sucker knows how to keep from losing his money in

some of the ways that get the raw beginner. It is this

semisucker rather than the 100 per cent article who is the real

all-the-year-round support of the commission houses. He lasts

about three and a half years on an average, as compared with a

single season of from three to thirty weeks, which is the usual

Wall Street life of a first offender. It is naturally the

semisucker who is always quoting the famous trading aphorisms

and the various rules of the game. He knows all the don'ts that

ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers excepting

the principal one, which is: Don't be a sucker!

This semisucker is the type that thinks he has cut his

wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines. He waits for

them. He measures his bargains by the number of points it has

sold off from the top. In big bull markets the plain

unadulterated sucker, utterly ignorant of rules and precedents,

buys blindly because he hopes blindly. He makes most of the

money until one of the healthy reactions takes it away from him

at one fell swoop. But the Careful Mike sucker does what I did

when I thought I was playing the game intelligently according to

the intelligence of others. I knew I needed to change my

bucket-shop methods and I thought I was solving my problem with

any change, particularly one that assayed high gold values

according to the experienced traders among the customers.

 

 

 

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education

when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on

telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull

market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not

in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that

is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market

and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many

years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of

dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that

made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?

My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the

market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and

early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right

at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks

when prices were at the very level, which should show the

greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine --

that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be

right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest

things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has

firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally

true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to

trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and

yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time

about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in

Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in

the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not

beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains

they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and

saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his

convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out

was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a

bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that

the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study

general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting

individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for

keeps! Wait until you see -- or if you prefer, until you think

you see the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of

general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision

to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell

you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things

that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last

eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in

the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate,

enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across

the continent.

[gogu]

[gogu]

3 pending orders:

buy usdchf @ 1.2180, SL 1.2150, TP 1.2350

buy usdchf @ 1.2180, SL 1.2150, TP 1.2430

buy usdchf @ 1.2180, SL 1.2150, TP open

[Fata Morgana]

Ordine noi:

 

gogu:

Eurusd s-a inchis la sl, am pierdut cam 150-160 pips.

Am intrat long pentru ca pretul se intorsese la vechile TL sau ricosase de peretii canalului.

 

[gogu]

@ Fata Morgana: multumesc pt post.

 

Dupa ce s-a publicat raportul referitor la CPI, cu valori foarte mari, ce ar putea readuce in discutie majorarea dobanzii la usd in iunie, am iesit din toate tranzactiile. Daca mai asteptam 5 minute puteam sa ies cu un profit mult mai mare, a urmat o crestere puternica a eur si gbp, dar mi-a fost frica sa mai stau.

Am recuperat pierderea de ieri.

[gogu]

A inceput corectia usd?

Asa se pare, am intrat treptat short eurusd si gbpusd.

Nu am pus TP, o sa ies in functie de ce se intampla in piata.

 

[gogu]

[Alien]

...am realizat cu toţii când ne-am apucat de tranzacţionat bani adevăraţi, şi am buşit conturi (unii mai deştepţi conturi mici, alţii mai prostalăi, aşa ca mine, conturi mari).

Am citit despre pierderile mari pe care le-ai avut. Asta face sa dau mult mai multa importanta la ceea ce scrii. Nu e putin lucru sa pierzi atat si sa continui totusi.

Tebuie sa stii cat de folositoare sunt posturile tale. Respect!

 

Eu am facut altceva: am facut praf un prim cont de 500, nici acum nu imi dau prea bine seama de ce. Doar citisem o gramada. si despre MM si despre lacomie... in sfarsit, se pare ca pana nu ne ardem chiar noi, nu invatam mare lucru.

 

Poate am mers pe ideea ca 500$ nu-s un capat de lume daca ii pierd. Si nu ma multumea un castig de 10$. Cred ca asta a fost.

Acum am pus noul cont pe numele sotiei. Nu stie ea mare lucru despre forex, dar sa citeasca un Equity poate. Daca pierd mai mult de 10% din cont, retrage banii. Nu ca nu i-as putea pune pe numele meu, dar nu vreau sa ma pun in situatia umilitoare de-ami inchide nevasta-ma contu'.

Acum merg cu 1$ pipsu si deja se schimba lucrurile.

Am fost mult mai prudent si am recuperat intr-o luna tot contul pierdut anterior intr-o luna jumate si am si 50$ in plus.

 

[Alien, mă bucur să văd că faci progrese.

Asa progrese... de la asa progrese m-am hotarat sa iau o saptamana pauza.  Saptamana trecuta am facut o luna de tranzactii pe noul cont.

 

Bilant?

18 tranzactii,  5 pe breakeven, doua care au s-au dus glont catre SL, 3 care au adus un profit demn de luat in seama (peste 100 pipsi) si restul... esuate lamentalbil, cu cate 5-20 de pipsi "profit", intrari bune strangulate de TS.

Per total, +550 pipsi.

 

Jalnic, avand in vedere intrarile...

 

Trebuie sa ma mai gandesc la ce spunea Livermore:

They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.

Exact asta am facut eu!

Intrarile au fost bune. Ce am facut mai departe m-a facut sa iau o pauza si sa reflectez.

[Methos]

@Alien

Aceeasi problema o am si eu.

Ies prea devreme din tranzactii bune. Este al naibii de greu sa mentin o pozitie cand vad ca incepe sa scada. Acum sunt pe +150, acum pe +60... ma gandesc ca e posibil sa pierd tot si inchid exact in cel mai nepotrivit moment.

De la o vreme am inceput sa las ordinele mai mult timp. Am micsorat cantitatea in asa fel incat diferenta dintre +60 si +100 nu inseamna mare lucru pentru contul meu. Nici macar SL atins nu inseamna mare lucru. Tendinta de a incasa profitul imediat s-a mai diminuat.

In timp, o sa reusesc sa las tranzactiile si cateva saptamani, sau luni,  daca e nevoie.

 

Un sfat bun ar fi sa micsorezi loturile. Sa nu mai intri cu 1pip=1$.

Si tine minte: Tradingul e amuzant, e esential si poate fi bine facut de tine. Si  de mine.

[Methos]

Primele doua saptamani ale lunii nu au fost prea rele, pana acum balanta este de +906 pips, dar nu sint multumit. Am pierdut ocazia de a vinde usd contra eur, gbp, chf, yen, cu toate ca am vazut de la inceput ca dolarul e slab si se depreciaza in raport cu toate celelalte. De ce? Pentru ca nu am crezut ca vanzarea dolarului o sa dureze asa mult, si am asteptat o corectie pentru a intra in tranzactii. Corectia nu a venit iar eu am stat pe margine in timp ce trendul continua in forta. Nici acum nu am curaj sa vand usd, posibilitatea unei corectii mi se pare prea mare.

Eu nu mai astept corectii. Nu de alta, dar sansele de a ma "corecta" piata pe mine sunt maxime.

Ultimele corectii pe care le-am asteptat mi-au "corectat" contul cu 400 de pipsi.

Prefer sa actionez pe baza a ce face piata decat pe baza a ceea ce as presupune eu ca va face.

 

Vad  ca nu ai mai postat alte tranzactii. Ai facut o pauza de tranzactionare, sau ai renuntat sa postezi?