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Standard & Poor's Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating

Posted by Barbones , 06 August 2011 · 572 views

atat. Ma intrebam acu cateva zile ce dracu e putred la Casa Alba de toti vand Dolari pe franci, Jen si Aur? Iata ca "cineva" stia de povestea asta si a fugit cu meleoanele acolo unde , in caz de galceava, nu pierde. Se repeta istoria. Pacat ca nu si paternurile intraday.

We would emphasize that the USD reaction against most currencies will probably follow broader market reaction. In particular, as emphasized below, if equity and commodity markets keep sliding globally, the main reaction is likely to cut long positions in equities, EM and commodities. These are mainly funded by short USD, so whether or not the safe-haven status of the USD is impaired over the long term, a downward shock to markets is likely to be USD positive in the near term. This is hardly USD positive once things settle down, but before they settle down, the short term will likely dominate the long-term.

As we discuss below, there may be concern in FX markets that the EUR AAAs are not solid, given the political and economic issues facing the euro zone and how conditions have worsened since the agencies last commented on ratings. Official and private investors instinctively may want to sell USD and buy EUR, but the EUR sovereign issues do not look better because the US’ looks worse, and a global risk-off response would be EUR negative. The key immediate investor worry is that no set of European policymakers is willing to buy sufficient peripheral and quasi-peripheral bonds to narrow spreads, so there is little pushback against the panic on Spain and Italy.

The biggest upside for the EUR would come if the ECB bought Spanish and Italian bonds and that might be enough to generate a global response among risk-correlated currencies, if it was done in sufficient size to convince the investors that contagion was overdone.

Read more: http://www.businessi...8#ixzz1ULIaZkuf

Finance Leaders Urgently Discuss Market Stability

The world's leading economies on Sunday urgently discussed the stability of financial markets after a historic U.S. credit downgrade rattled investors already worried about European debt crises.
Deputies from the Group of 20 advanced and emerging economies talked by telephone Sunday about proposals to minimize market shocks, South Korea's central bank said. And the financial ministers from the Group of Seven economies planned talks before Asian markets open Monday.

The countries are concerned Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating late Friday will shake global markets. In a sign of the fallout, Middle East markets tumbled Sunday on the first day of business after the downgrade.
Kyodo News agency reported Sunday that G-7 deputy finance ministers had agreed on a conference call among the higher-level ministers, who are likely to discuss the U.S. downgrade as well as the eurozone sovereign debt concerns.

Japan's Senior Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi hinted Sunday that Tokyo would intervene again in the currency market if excessive fluctuations continue. It acted Thursday to weaken the yen and protect Japan's recovery from an earthquake and tsunami in March.
"It's not over yet. We will act again if we see speculative moves," Igarashi said on a talk show Sunday on public broadcaster NHK, referring to a possibility for more rounds of yen-selling intervention.


Euro-Area Central Banks to Hold Crisis Call

Euro-region central bank governors will hold emergency talks today intended to stop Spain and Italy from becoming the next victims of the sovereign-debt crisis and limit fallout from the first U.S. credit-rating cut in history.

The central bank chiefs will convene by conference call at 6 p.m. Paris time, said a euro-area central bank official who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. A spokesman for the European Central Bank declined to comment. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven countries may confer by phone as early as tomorrow morning in Tokyo before Asian markets open, Kyodo News reported, citing people familiar with the plan.

The flurry of talks comes as the U.S. downgrade by Standard & Poor’sthreatens to further derail efforts to stop the debt crisis from engulfing the euro-area’s third and fourth-largest economies.


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