Barbones' Blog

Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to the lowest level this year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said record monetary stimulus is still needed to support the economic recovery.

Yields on 10-year notes fell before the government’s $21 billion auction of the securities today and a $13 billion offering of 30-year bonds tomorrow. The extra yield investors demand to hold 30-year securities instead of 2-year debt was almost the highest since March on speculation interest rates will stay low.

“Bernanke’s comments were supportive of the bullish trend in yields as he pointed out that the economy will continue to languish unless we see marked improvement on the jobs front,” saidMartin Mitchell, head government bond trader in Baltimore at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., a brokerage firm. “There was no endorsement of QE3, which is putting pressure on risk assets and supporting Treasuries.”

‘Another Dip’

“The general sense in the market is that there’s going to be another dip in economic growth and that we might need QE3,” said Mark Schofield, head of interest-rate strategy at Citigroup Inc. inLondon. “You’ve got a lot of people talking up every reason to buy. We’re still in the camp that the economy is recovering and that yields are headed higher toward the end of the year.”

In traducere: QE3 = Long Euro, AUD, GBP, si Short Dolar si USD/CHF

Nu e QE3? totul pe invers.

Sansele cresc pentru prima varianta.

Miscarea la Euro "ghicita" inca din August nu ne-a luat prin surprindere . Problema azi este cat de long va fi trendul si cat de scurta va fi retragerea.

1.42 este un target gasit de alti pe care-i cred si 1.50 previzionat de alte persoane.

Eu zic ca pe 3 Noiembrie vom avea ceva miscare,

Cu pending sau nu, tot e ceva de luat. Nu stiu daca la fel de puternic ca in Dec 2008 dar miscarea se aseamana.

Cine a cautat in fundament miscarea pe Euro si Aud a fost "long", cine cauta varfuri tehnice, deci a dat sell pe toata urcarea asta, a avut ceva probleme.

Si asta este deabea inceputul.

Spike ul a fost de asteptat dupa anuntul QE2, dar faptul ca Euro a fost corelat invers cu SP pe NFP imi intareste ideea ca asa se va si termina anul.

Euro down, SP Up.

Sunt Short Euro chiar daca statistic Euro ar trebui sa se aprecieze pana in Decembrie.

Daca nu, am SL la BE

Aseara Fed s-a mai apropiat cu un pas de QE2 zicand ca daca inflatia nu e pe cararea buna vor avea ei grija sa nu se piarda prin padure. Reactia a fost deloc surprinzatoare, Euro a creat new high peste sma si ema 200 on daily iar AUD a fost vedeta emisiunii. Aurul nu stiu ce cauta acolo dar ma interesez.

Azi, la Minuta BoE

"On balance, most members thought that the current level of Bank Rate and stock of asset

purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remained appropriate to balance the risks

to the inflation outlook in the medium term. But both key risks were substantial, and these members

stood ready to respond in either direction as the balance of risks evolved. For some of those members,

the probability that further action would become necessary to stimulate the economy and keep inflation

on track to hit the target in the medium term had increased. "

.Deci si Lira ar avea drum la munte ca si majorele in general. Sigur ca, acum as vrea totusi sa astept si NFP ul pe Octombrie si mai ales rezultatele Q3 pe SUA ca sa dau buy toata toamna linistit dar si asa, tonul e dat cat de cat si cu picul de ajutor dat de "new homes" in SUA.

Tot somajul ramane problema si din Q&A cu Obama de la CNBC de alataieri imi ramane o propozitie in minte care spune mult despre ceea ce gandesc si eu printre milioanele care inca il mai simpatizeaza :

"Is this my new reality?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQ8sxTsllk&feature=related

Putin also said Russia in the future may even want to join the monetary union.

Despite the problems, the euro has proven to Putin as a "stable world currency.

He also praised the efforts of the European Central Bank and Member States in order to stabilize the currency.When questioned whether Russia in the future also comes to the euro, Putin said that the "rapprochement of Russia and Europe is inevitable."

Putin also said there was scope for greater use of the euro in international energy trade and voiced confidence in the stability of the single European currency.. Reuters si nu.nl

Cred ca Putin e long pe euro de pe la 1.32 si vrea sa-l duca la 1.47

De ieri de la 12 00, de cand am postat "previziunea-minune", Euro a crescut 300 de pips si nu se lasa la vale.. neam.

Cred ca ma fac analist.

Acum mai serios vorbind, Inchiderea de azi care e si inchiderea saptamanii tari din Ianuarie , asa cum arata in secunda asta, duce euro la 1.38 ca target imediat. Da Doamne!

Sa nu uitam ca Grecia de azi este pe lista tuturor agentiilor de rating la categoria - GUNOI - nu stiu sa traduc altfel - JUNK, mai rau de atat cat sa fie? Gunoi puturos?

Dragi telespectatori, ati uitat sa cumparati indicatorul minute ECB_Jean_Claude.mq4 de pe situl www.ecb.int

In continuare este la vanzare si respecta rata de profit de 110%.

Nu va inghesuiti.

Va dorim vizionare placuta.

Atat se zice va trebuie sa ia portughezu' ca sa dea inapoi cu dobanda. De ce sa ia?

Ca 'sa vor ei, cei care dau.

Q. How should investors approach currency investing both in terms of hedging and seeking investment returns? What are the opportunities and risks?

Clarida: At PIMCO, we like to separate in our own minds an investment decision on a security with a separate decision on whether we want to take the related currency bet. In today’s markets, investors are generally able to hedge currency exposure.

Also, certain PIMCO strategies may invest directly in currencies. Broadly, our approach to investing in currencies is to think of them as a way to express our macro views about opportunities in a number of countries.

With our New Normal worldview of headwinds to growth in developed markets and tailwinds in emerging markets, we now generally look at emerging market and G-10 currencies simultaneously and with the same analytical framework. As I discussed earlier, we anticipate EM policymakers will allow their currencies to appreciate in the years ahead as they nurture domestic consumption. And in contrast to the ‘80s and ‘90s, in recent years EM currencies have been less volatile than G-10 currencies. Thus, EM currencies can be attractive opportunities.

Of course, as with any financial investment, there are risks to investing in currencies. The primary risk, in our view, is that there are periods in which volatility spikes and in which there are potentially significant drops in a currency’s relative valuation. There is a saying in the foreign currency markets that currency trades work until they don’t. And so certainly anyone thinking of investing in currencies should also consider if portfolio managers are appropriately factoring in such tail risk. That is certainly a focus at PIMCO.

Pimco, cel mai mare fond mutual in prezent.

Are si analize free

http://www.pimco.com...Hard-Money.aspx

Daca vrei sa sti mai bine ce sume invart:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pimco

Euro, dupa mine ramane tot de buy chiar dupa macelul de ieri.

4250 a picat. 4120 next daca Panda nu-si baga labuta

ps. Si totusi, Grecia ia banii in Septembrie.

tp://www.ziare.com...pag2#comentarii

Business > Economie > criza economica mondiala http://ziareromania.ro/img/minus.jpg http://ziareromania.ro/img/plus.jpg

http://thumbs.ziare.com/O-ipoteza-halucinanta--Europa--amenintata-de-forte-malefice-/ab03acf74fa8af0f5/240/0/1/70/O-ipoteza-halucinanta--Europa--amenintata-de-forte-malefice-.jpg Pornind de la amenintarile necrutatoare si greu de explicat asupra economiei unor tari europene, profesorul Edward Tetreau de la HEC (Paris) lanseaza ideea ca dificultatile financiare ale tarilor UE nu sunt de ordin institutional. Ele sunt, in principal, de ordin mafiot.

Concret, o banda de speculatori, bine organizati si actionand in umbra anonimatului, loveste sistematic sistemul financiar al tarilor UE penru a le dobori una cate una. La momentul potrivit, speculatorii stiu ce au de facut ca sa profite, in beneficiul propriu, de haosul creat.

Cine urmeaza dupa Grecia?

Grecia a fost prima vizata. Lovitura era aproape de a reusi si poate reusea daca nu interveneau eforturile energice si conjugate ale Eurogrupului. Banda nu numai ca a ratat prima lovitura, dar a pierdut sume importante pe care le investise, contand pe o reusita de 100%.

Faptul ca unele agentii de rating s-au grabit sa prezica inevitabila catastrofa a Greciei, il face pe autorul articolului din La Tribune sa nu excluda complicitati surprinzatoare. Cum actioneaza grupul si pe ce butoane apasa, asta nu stie nimeni, dar nu pare intamplator ca, dupa esuarea atacului in directia Greciei, alte tari se pomenesc, din senin, in dificulatate.

Ai zice ca numai cand a devenit clar ca Portugalia si Irlanda au sanse sa fie salvate, taifunul si-a schimbat directia si s-a indreptat brusc spre Spania si Italia. Un observator atent nu poate scapa din vedere faptul ca interesele financiare ale unor fonduri de investitii sau organizatii bancare americane, britanice sau chiar europene ar fi avantajate de falimentarea unui stat sau a altuia.

In opinia autorului, cea mai importanta masura pe care ar putea-o lua institutiile europene, inclusiv factorii politici, este sa identifice acesti speculatori ascunsi in umbra. Principiul transparentei nu numai ca le permite, dar ii si obliga. N-ar trebui sa ne acundem dupa deget si sa ne rusinam, punandu-ne o intrebare elementara: cine are interesul sa prabuseasca Europa?

Iar, daca aflam cine, nimic nu opreste UE sa faca publice numele acelor institutii, organizatii sau grupuri, care ar fi gata sa loveasca mortal state intregi, pentru propriile lor intrerese.

Timpul trece, iar Europa bate pasul pe loc

In numele transparentei la care nu numai ca avem dreptul, dar pe care suntem chiar obligati s-o practicam, nimeni n-ar opri institutiile europene sa intocmeasca lista neagra a organizatiilor interesate in falimentarea unor state.

Sa nu uitam ca lupta este pe viata si pe moarte: ori descoperim aceste forte malefice si le oprim in ceasul al doisprezecelea accesul pe pietele europene, ori - in ceasul al treisprezecelea - nimeni nu va putea opri falimentele.

Este ciudata miopia pietelor financiare, care tot judeca tarile din zona euro, uitand de cazul a doua importante puteri extra-europene, care se prezinta cel putin la fel de lamentabil ca Grecia: Marea Britanie, cu deficitul ei de 9% din PIB si Statele Unite, care, dupa unele estimari, risca sa esueze in urmatoarele doua saptamani.

Timpul insa trece implacabil si inca nu este clar ce asteapta responsabilii politici ai Europei, ca sa actioneze energic.

Ce-i de facut?

In primul rand, trebuie intocmita "lista neagra" a institutiilor sau organizatiilor care ar putea specula, profitand de caderea institutiilor financiare din zona euro.

In al doilea rand, este necesara initiativa comuna franco-germana asupra pietelor, de exemplu, prin cumpararea masiva a titlurilor sau obligatiunilor privind datoriile suverane spaniole si italiene. Nu e un act de filantropie: pentru Franta si Germania, esuarea celor doua tari inseamna si esuarea propriilor lor banci.

In al treilea rand trebuie ca, pana la data de 2 august, data dupa care guvernul SUA nu mai este autorizat sa se imprumute, cu riscul de a nu putea onora platile, Europa trebuie sa-si nominalizeze un ministru al Finantelor, avand ca principal obiectiv mutualizarea datoriilor nationale europene.

Avem de ales: ori sta fiecare cu capul in nisip, ca strutul, ignorand pericolul, ori iesim din crizanumai printr-o uniune federala bugetara si fiscala - deci si politica.

Timpul este scurt, dar, daca pentru a decide o actiune militara in Libia au trebuit cateva ore, poate ar fi sufieciente cateva saptamani pentru a corela finantele unor tari ca Germania Franta, Italia, Spania.

Punctul de vedere al profesorului Edward Tetreau este indraznet, dar nu trebuie neglijat faptul ca apartine unei personalitati marcante din lumea universitara franceza si unui bun cunoscator al problemelor UE, cu studii si cercetari efectuate atat in Europa, cat si in SUA. http://ziareromania.ro/img/new/right_corner.jpg

Victor Pitigoi http://thumbs.ziare.com/Victor-Pitigoi/72bc3916f280a767a/60/60/2/70/Victor-Pitigoi.jpgSenior editor Articole: 473 Comentarii:5409Aboneaza-te la articolele mele!

Nu ca as cunoaste foarte mult economia Noii Zeelande dar saptamana asta cresc sansele pentru o diminuare a ratei dobanzii. Cutremurul este unul din motive si nu numai el iar tehnic se vede pe chart.

Decizia asupra ratei pentru mine este semnalul de Short chiar daca s-ar putea sa pice pana atunci.

Suma deja aflata in pretul Euro. Urmeaza Banca Europei si NFP.

Spikul are de asteptat, nu stiu daca va duce mai departe de saptamana viitoare.

Eu nu cred.

Euro a fost de buy toata ziua.

Problema a fost ca asa de mult a stat in buy ca nu aveai de unde sa-l apuci. O singura retragere mai decenta la 38fib pana in NFP si aia rapida si chiar cu 30 de min inainte.

Sigur ca am dat buy la NFP si sigur ca am dat buy inainte dar cand CAD ul s-a dus pe aceeasi directie cu Euro mi-a cazut fata si sigur ca am iesit mult mai devreme decat linia de trend targetata de pe Daily,

Una peste alta, ramanem pe buy pana de Craciun, sau chiar de Revelion.

Avem unde in sus si mai ales de ce.

Pentru cei care doresc sa cumpere un indicator foarte bun pentru MT4:

Se activeaza c am 1 data pe luna dar are rata de profit de 100%.

Cine e interesat, sa se duca la www.ecb.int si sa ceara acolo

"ECB_Jean-Claude.mq4"

Pretul este negociabil,

Pentru ca pe Euro "simt" rasuflarea fierbinte pe buy a unor banci centrale, prefer sa nu dau Sell la Euro ci buy la Franc 1 luna.

— U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday, dragged lower by cyclical stocks as investors grew more conservative about the Federal Reserve’s attempts to stimulate the economy.

Adica ce am zis mai devreme, Buy Dolari pe Majore.

Europe and other US trading partners are trying to shame the FOMC into not announcing another large, market-distorting QE at there meeting a week from today. Today's report that US New Home Sales rebounded 6.6% is seen by most as not likely to keep the Fed from announcing some moderate level of QE2 next week. Durable Goods also rebounded, but were distorted by Aircraft orders. The chatter on the Street these days is that the Fed will take a much more cautious QE approach this time around, leaving itself maximum leeway to adjust the policy as new information is acquired. Reuters

You know that scene in the film Contact 

Yeah, that’s not exactly how NASA’s envisioning faster-than-light space travel, but…wait, NASA’s working on faster-than-light travel? Isn’t that impossible?

(MORE: Ultrafast Chips that Run on Light: Nanoswitch Breakthrough Brings Us Closer)

Read more: http://techland.time.com/2012/09/19/nasa-actually-working-on-faster-than-light-warp-drive/#ixzz27KhKYAPq

Foarte clar spus si extrem de convingator. Piata a priceput din prima. Euro ramane buy chiar cu un NFP neconvingator.

Nu mai zic nimic in plus decat ca pana acum erau doar 2 baietei care vroiau sa ridice rata din grupul celor care decid soarta Dobanzii. Daca se mai adauga cel putin inca unul s-are Lira .

Iar pe seara Trichet si alti strengari ce pot da impulsuri imediate in piata mai au ceva de zis.

The extreme price fluctuations of May 6 Flash Crash trading chaos greatly affected everyone from individual investors to corporations that need to raise capital.

In response, the CFTC-SEC Joint Advisory Committee on Emerging Regulatory Issues issued a detailed report to the SEC and CFTC describing what happened on May 6 and making recommendations on reforms for preventing flash crash-like market disruptions.

Based on the investigations described in the report, the NYSE experienced record quotation traffic and significant delays in the dissemination of data on May 6. For more than five minutes starting at 2:44 p.m. in New York, its quotes in 1,665 securities were delayed by 5 to 20 seconds or more. Quotations in the same securities disseminated through its private feeds had an average delay of .008 second. As the result, 20-minute rout erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The report stated that deliberate attempts by traders to overwhelm exchanges with orders played no role in the May 6 crash. The majority of activity that occurred on May 6 wasn’t quote stuffing, it was quote withdrawals. A report further stated that the plunge was triggered by the sale of futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that set off a chain of selling that bled into stocks and exchange-traded funds.

While the study said selling was worsened by automated firms trading with one another, the report placed no emphasis on the practice that has come to be known as quote stuffing, in which investors allegedly seek an advantage by delaying data feeds.

According to the report, no evidence was found that delays led to price declines since most high-frequency firms — the providers of the bulk of liquidity in the market — use private data feeds from exchanges instead of publicly available information. Regulators said the delays may have exacerbated concern about the accuracy of prices, encouraging liquidity providers to reduce their trading.

However, the evidence doesn’t support claims that delays triggered or otherwise caused the extreme volatility in security prices observed that day. The report further stated that NYSE was in the process of upgrading data systems on May 6. Less convincing are allegations about people intentionally trying to gum up the works without any evidence.

Some of the recommendations made in the report include the possibility of imposing price and volume limits for brokered trades. Require executing brokers to adopt certain trading practices when executing a large order by use of an algorithm, such as price or volume limits. Require executing brokers to have an obligation to monitor and make non-disruptive trading judgments.

Also, require executing brokers have similar limitations as exchanges, which is to have the maximum order-size limitations and price banding that prevent entry into the trading engine of an order that exceeds a predefined maximum quantity or a price difference from the current market.

Other options the panel considered are increasing visibility into the full order book and potential revisions to market pauses, either for single exchanges, such as stop loss functionality logic, or for cross-market circuit breakers.

Some experts say that although, it is not intentional, it is a big accidental problem that no one seems to be learning from or doing anything about. The quoting behavior has stopped and started again on different exchanges since May 6 and also occurred before then.

Some critics of U.S. market structure have urged exchanges to adopt a fee for quote cancellations that exceed a certain rate and said bids and offers should remain available to investors for a minimum amount of time. Such initiatives may curtail the ability of firms to submit and cancel orders rapidly.

forexlive.com

Portugal - €78B rescue package over three years; Parliament still needs to approve the deal

La 12 1 pe la pranz este conferinta de presa cu anuntarea pachetului de salvare a Portugaliei si imediat vine Mr. Trichet sa ne mai zica cate una doua. Sanse mari sa fie foarte ingrijorat de infaltie si sa ramana "vigilent".

Acum sunt 2 variante - ori o da tare la deal si EU se duce pe la 1.5150 ori ne corectam la 1.4750 . Varianta cu range la 1.50 nu o exclud dar e cu sanse mai mici. Merg pe corectie totusi 2 3 zile si de pe la 4750 sa fie loc de buy.

Pe vremuri, orice problema ce aparea legata de petrol crestea imediat cererea de Dolari. Azi nu.

Problemele din Libia nu sperie, pretul petrolului nu sperie doar anuntul de ieri seara ce spunea ca un portavion SUA se indreapta catre Libia a creat ceva fiori in piata si refugiere pe Dolar, in rest, piata spune ca nu avem de ce sa ne facem griji, deci o eventuala interventie in Libia nu va speria.

Maine, sansele ca Mr. Trichet sa creasca dobanda sunt foarte mici dar daca va avea o retorica mult mai ingrijorata cu privire la inflatie decat data trecuta , break ul de azi pe Euro va fi confirmat iar daca NFP ul de poimaine nu dezamageste trendul Long ramane lung cel putin 1 luna cu sanse de mentinere a directiei pana pe 1 Mai 2011.

Lira ar putea fi prima cu rata dobanzii schimbata asa ca 1.67, 1.70 sunt in carti,

edit

http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_110303.en.html

Pentru ca maine e G7 azi s-au marcat ceva profituri chiar daca SP si DOW au facut noi maxime pe anunturile pentru trimestrul 3 pe SUA.

In contiuare atmosfera la FED este incurcata, se spune de 100 de miliarde pe luna pentru QE2 care este mai putin decat 1000 de miliarde brusc.

De luni vom sti mai multe si de pe 3 Noiembire si mai multe.

Maine e zi buna de plecat la munte. De dimineata.

O banca mare din SUA a dat ca 1.41 foarte rapid pentru Euro, Eu zic ca maine la conferinta stim daca Mr.Trichet il ingrijoreaza tare inflatia sau nu.

NFP ul de vineri are previziune pozitiva.

China si compania inca nu dau semne de oboseala la cumparare.

Tot vineri UE intra in sedinta dar nu va da nicio rezolutie cu privire la noul fond de "salvare".

Diferenta intre bonduri intre Germania si periferice scade.

De maine aflam daca continuam buy ul si Vineri NFP confirma.

Sper ca miscarea sa tina toata luna pana la rezolutia din Martie a UE ce va zice cu cat vor suplimenta EFSF.

Bernanke a zis : voi face totul... ! azi am vazut pe ADP Non-Farm Employment. Nu era de buy si totusi....?! buy.

Vineri, nu o sa avem numar pozitiv pe NFP si totusi... v-om da buy. De ce?

Pentru ca, daca dam sell cum ar fi normal ne luam la revedere de la lumea pe care o stim, cu situri, cu internet, cu viata frumoasa.

Sa te vad Domnule Bernanke. Azi ai aratat. Mai vreau o datal