Barbones' Blog

iar peste 1.50

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/greece-to-receive-up-to-124-billion-in-new-aid.html

Anul trecut parca tot prin Mai Euro facea furori la vale tot pe Grecia. Un preot grec zicea prin Decembrie trecut parca ca cineva si-a pus in minte sa aduca in sclavie Grecia. Nu cred in asa teorii dar ma intreb daca Grecia va mai lua inca un imprumut asa cum se vorbeste zilele astea cum va reusi sa dea inapoi banii si mai ales cand?

Datoria externa poate ajunge si la 200% din PIB daca nu o fi depasit deja ceea ce face ca existenta in sine a statului grec independent sa fie pus la indoiala. Daca eu as fi dator unei banci mai mult decat as putea produce tot restul vietii nu cred ca as mai fi un om liber, probabil as apartine acelei institurii in totalitate.

Cum Grecia nu prea are resurese naturale in afara de turism si pozitie geostrategica, nu prea vad cum ar putea sa o scoata la capat. Nu stiu cine e de vina pentru situatia actuala si deja nu prea mai conteaza asa cum nici pentru acel trader care a pierdut 5 miliarde de dolari prin 2008 nu prea conteaza chiar daca sta la puscarie toata viata, dar conteaza ce urmeaza.

Germania, Franta su SUA cu alte cuvinte detin cu acte nu doar economia Greciei dar in curand pe fiecare cetatean grec.

O eventuala iesire a Greciei din UE este inadmisibila si luata doar din perspectiva precedentului dar oare mai exista alta solutie?

Uniunea Europeana, institutia creata pentru a relansa "Sfantul Imperiu Roman" ce s-a dizolvat la inceputul sec XIX este un deziderat dar daca asta duce inapoi in sclavagism pentru anumite tari prefer sa dau din nou mana cu rusii si de ce:

Romania a avut cateva momente bune in istorie: am fost recunoscuti de un mare imperiu atunci cand multe state din jur nu existau cu 2000 de ani in urma., Mihai Viteazu a unit principatele cu mult inaintea multor tari,Marea Unire din 1918, si mai ales perioada comunista.

Desigur ca si rusii ne-au furat de ne-au rupt dar macar am avut sansa sa ne dezvoltam asa cum Romania nu a putut nicioadata sa o faca in toata istoria ei. In afara de export agricol si femei frumoase nu am avut voie sa facem nimic in schimb sub rusi am ajuns de la un popor de agricultori si betivi notorii sa avem program spatial, industrie competitiva dar mai ales scolarizare de calitate.

Daca tot ce se intampla azi tarilor de mana a doua membre ale uniunii ni se va intampla si noua odata intrati sub umbrela UE pe deplin mai bine ma lipsesc.

Ce s a intamplat pe 6 Mai.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-07/eu-said-to-consider-requiring-more-collateral-for-extra-greek-aid-on-debt.html

De ce comanda un asemenea studiu BBC? ce interes are? ce vrea defapt guvernul UK? De ce agita spiritele Anglia in problema Euro?

Ce nu-i convine? E ceva ce nu stim noi?

Bun. Grecia nu-si va putea plati datoriile. Si ce!, ce se va intampla cu Grecia daca da faliment? nu intra cumva sub protectie UE ca membru ce se afla? Ce influenta negativa poate avea asta asupra UE? Niciuna.

UE este un deziderat vechi de sute de ani.

Sell ul de azi si Gapul:

Liderii europeni sunt pentru prima oară pregătiti să accepte că Atena ar trebui să intre in incapacitate de plata pe unele dintre obligaţiunile sale, ca parte a unui nou plan de salvare pentru Grecia, care ar pune datoria tarii pe un nivel sustenabil. FT.com

Tot saptamana asta avem rezultatele pentru Stres-Testul bancilor Europene dar si accentuarea tensiuni privind situatia Italiei.

“The news around Greece is not good -- it implies that any bailouts that may be required elsewhere could be given the same treatment, which makes sovereign bonds in those countries look less attractive,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. “We’re waiting on meetings of EU ministers, but it’s hard to imagine them coming out with anything that will be supportive.”

Bloomberg.com

German Fin Min Schaeuble: Expects IMF/EU/ECB report on Greece in one week

Pana atunci e frumos afara sau ceva sell pe Lira cu toate ca nu prea ma incanta.

S&P nu se lasa asa cum cred ca si noua agentie de rating chineza nu se va lasa usor .

Mi-e mila de greci dar ma intreb cum de au ajuns in situatia asta, nu cumva au si ei partea lor de vina?

Pentru ca e clar ca nimic nu e clar trade ul pe euro devine riscant in ambele directii. Sell ul poate fi intrerupt de China iar buy ul nu are sens acum, Trade ul intraday ramane singura solutia.

http://www.incont.ro...in-acordul.html

Motivul pentru care fundamental am fost si raman Long Euro:

"Daca Grecia se va prabusi, investitorii vor prefera obligatiunile Germaniei si nu cele ale SUA ca plasamente sigure, considera seful Pimco."

http://www.incont.ro...-de-dolari.html

In - 1.4180

Tp - 1.5000

SL - Close sub 1.3500

Acum e oficiala recomandarea.

Eu zic sa ne facem noi astia din Est o Europa doar a noastra, cu Turcia si Liban invitate speciale

ministru de finante german este impotriva cresterii fondului de salvare. Pai sa-si mute exporturile in Africa

E logic ca un dolar slab a ajutat Multinationalele dar nu ar fi cazul sa terminam saptamana asta cu nebunia asta, macar la G20?

De ceva vreme balanta de la Fed atarna catre buy dolari.

BEN e dupa colt. Totul e mai complicat ca acum 5 minute.

Probabil ca ne pregatim de o noua masiva cadere a Dolarului in fata AUD, NZD, Jen(probabil) Euro, Lira si CAD.

Nu m-as mira sa vin din concediu in Septembrie si Euro sa fie la 1.5

Si uite cum in 5 minute, din ce parea un sell off la 1.41 trecem la 1.4399 target.

Sansele ca QE3 sa apara au crescut considerabil.

Following the meeting of G20 finance ministers, the risk of war exchange you think spread?

Group determination was indeed to avoid a war exchange. The Ministers discussed this issue specifically.. We are committed not to resort to policies of competitive devaluations. But we also agreed we would set broader objectives in terms of our current account balances, without stigmatizing a particular country. All surplus countries such as deficit countries on commercial terms, must be alert to changes in their trade. While we have not established numerical goals desired by the U.S. administration. Because the situation of the G20 countries is different. In particular, countries with high commodity exporters have argued that the trade balance was different in nature. In the end, we agreed to a "path of peace," but we do not yet have tools at our disposal. This presages the work of the French presidency of the G20 next year. These works represent one of the objectives of President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is working to develop a new international monetary system.

Christine Lagarde is the current Minister of Economic Affairs, Industry and Employment of France

Citat din http://www.lesechos.fr/

One Of The Biggest 'Hedge Funds' In The World Is Getting Destroyed By The Yen

 

 

One of the biggest leveraged hedge funds in the world got hit with a 2×4 during the 4^th Q. This fund has a mixed bag of assets, but was heavily exposed to big FX positions.

The fund made a big “bet” recently when they went short EURYEN. This turned sour in a very big way; the EURYEN moved an incredible 14 big figures against them in just 60 trading days.

 

 

Read more: http://www.businessi...1#ixzz2GpDsw5Ir

Source: Revista Presei

Google CEO Larry Page envisions a future in which computers plan your vacations, drive your cars, and anticipate your whims. Audacious? Maybe. But Page's dreams have a way of coming true.

 

Note: On Jan 3, as Fortune published this article, the Federal Trade Commission ended its investigation of Google's search practices saying it found no evidence that the company manipulated search results in violation of antitrust laws. The European Commission and other regulators continue to investigate the issue.

http://fortunebrainstormtech.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/larry_page.jpg?w=620&h=373

FORTUNE -- When Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP Group, the giant advertising agency, visited Google this past fall, CEO Larry Page sent a car to pick him up at the Rosewood Hotel about 20 miles away. Only this was no ordinary car. The Lexus SUV drove itself thanks to a slew of high-tech tools, including radars, sensors, and a laser scanner that takes more than 1.5 million measurements every second. For about 20 minutes, while navigating I-280 and the area's busy State Route 85, the car cruised on autopilot, making quick course corrections, slowing down here when traffic loomed ahead, speeding up there to get out of the blind spot of a neighboring vehicle. "It was pretty incredible," says Sorrell.

 

http://tech.fortune....ge/?iid=F_F500M

Source: Revista Presei

Preşedintele Comisiei Europene, Jose Manuel Barroso, a declarat miercuri că Europa are nevoie de o evoluţie spre o "federaţie de state-naţiune".

 

http://www.antena3.r...une-183696.html

Source: Revista Presei

 

Goldman's Jan Hatzius is out with an excellent note that essentially calls for the economic crisis to end in 2013.

The title of the note is The US Economy in 2013-2016: Moving Over the Hump, and the gist is that 2013 will be the last year of sub-trend growth.

http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/50ba65d4eab8ea1711000013-341-255/jan-hatzius.jpg

 

 

Read more: http://www.businessi...2#ixzz2MfE8vcxT

Source: Revista Presei

Federal Reserve's Money Printing Failure

 

The Federal Reserve is the Central Bank of United States of America. It is responsible for printing the U.S. dollars & much more.

The reason for Federal Reserve's existence is to maintain price stability and maximum employment.

 

The Federal Reserve (and other Central Banks) have been 'printing' money in recent years under various code-names, includingQuantitive Easing (QE 1, 2, & 3), LTRO, SMP, TWIST, TARP and TALF, in order to bring unemployment down & speed up the economy. This article explains the failure behind the current money printing scheme and how banks, not people, get the money.

 

http://demonocracy.i...-2012-2013.html

De ce sunt short Dolar.

Source: Revista Presei

 

It Looks Like Everyone Owes Bernanke A Big Apology

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/it-looks-like-everyone-owes-bernanke-a-big-apology-2013-7#ixzz2YGtgecYehttp://static6.businessinsider.com/image/51c63601eab8eacd4d000027-800-/ben-bernanke-53.jpg

Source: Revista Presei

 

SIX THINGS WE LEARNED FROM BERNANKE’S TESTIMONY

 

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/cassidy-bernanke-testimony.jpg

 

Years ago, while attending an economics conference, I heard someone—I think it was Richard Freeman, of Harvard, but I couldn’t swear to it—respond to a presentation by saying that it hadn’t cleared up the issue at hand but that it had improved the quality of our ignorance. Two days of testimony on Capitol Hill from Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, has accomplished something similar. At the end of it, we still don’t know for sure where Fed policy, and the global markets that depend upon it, will go from here. But we have learned some valuable things. Here are six of them:[/size]

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/07/six-things-we-learned-from-bernankes-testimony.html

 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/07/18/stocks-thursday/2540807/

Source: Revista Presei

 

 

Quantitative prop trader: 'I wouldn't try to raise the price of rice and starve China'

Joris Luyendijk meets a trader who says their approach is far from 'evil', but one of extreme caution and calculation

http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/4b9fdb117f8b9a0307960100-480/shadow-dollar-bills-cash-money-warhol.jpg

 

• This monologue is part of a series in which people across the financial sector speak about their working lives

 

 

 

"So far you miss a speculator, the finance bad guy," he wrote in the blog. "Well, that would be me," adding: "If we go for some food you'll be able to make one of those nice plate descriptions " So we're meeting one harsh, cold February evening for dinner in Strada, an Italian restaurant opposite the now-evicted Occupy camp. He is an inconspicuous-looking man, originally from continental Europe. He orders a vegetarian pasta and sparkling water.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/joris-luyendijk-banking-blog/2012/apr/02/quantatitive-prop-trader-voices-of-finance?newsfeed=true

Source: Revista Presei

Dupa cum se misca azi 31 August, zi de inchidere de fapt, parca parca banca aia stie ce spune. Raman long.

 

1.2625 ar trebui marcare ceva profit.

 

Apropo de vrajeala. Nu iau declaratia ca pe o vrajeala pentru ca:

1. Cine sa sara in buy, alte banci, dar aia nu au analisti lor? Sau daca o alta banca mai mare zice buy altele mai mici intra si ele ? asta se poate si chiar se intampla. Deci, in masura in care se asculta de una mai mare, cu atat mai mult intru buy.

 

2. Crezi ca astia din banci dau declaratii pentru retaileri ca noi? Acolo e vorba se sute de milioane zilnic, in piata direct, fara leverage. Noi suntem in house, nu uita. Noi nu contam.

 

3. Fundamental stam asa:

 

Draghi a declarat acum ceva vreme ca e pe buy la euro, mai pe intelesul nostru, adica a atentionat ca nu va tolera o devalorizare la Euro si mai ales ca are resurse nelimitate. Cine crezi ca se pune cotra cu banca care a creat Euro? Nici mama lui JP morgan, asa ca toti la deal.

 

Nu va mai fi la deal atunci cand Bernanke va intra si el cu QE3 iar din ultma sedinta au crescut rau sansele sa intre doar ca nu se stie cand. In acel moment, 2 banci centrale mari fac interventie pe piata si deci se bat cap in cap la Euro Dolar. Atunci e mai greu de prevazut, dar pana atunci avem buy deocamdata.

 

Asta e analiza mea acum. Daca apare ceva nou am sa scriu.

 

Nu am mai scris pana acum caci vara nu tranzactionez. Acum incepe joaca, dupa primul NFP din Septembire.

 

Bine v-am gaist

Source: Euro Acum

Incepand de azi, 6 Sept 2012 si cel putin pana in Decembrie s-ar putea sa vedem un mare trend de buy la Euro, Lira, Aud.

Azi, Mario Draghi aproape ca nu a spus ca da bani cu lopata gratis. Mai urmeaza maine NFP si de saptamana viitoare toate sasele sa o luam in sus.

Source: Euro Acum

maybe

Nu ma asteptam chiar asa repede, dar TP ul are mari sanse sa fie atins.

Source: Euro Acum