Barbones' Blog

Azi-dimineata il asteptam pe Trichet cu degetul pe buy. am dat un buy la un moment dat cand bondurile Spaniei s-au vandut bine si cu el am ramas.

Zic l-as ca vine omu' si facem banu'

Si... a venit.

Prima oara a zis ca o tine asa cum e acum.

Piata se astepta la mai mult de cat e acum

Euro a picat 50.

A doua oara, a zis ca va continua sa cumpere bonduri

Piata a zis: - Bine

Euro a mai picat 50

.

A treia oara a spus acelasi lucru ca a doua oara dar mai apasat

Piata a zis - Daaa???

Euro s-a intors 140 in sus.

Spre final nu stiu ce a mai zis ca am avut treaba dar la inchidea Londrei era tot acolo sus.

Nu zic ce am facut, spun doar ca am dat numai buy si nu am pierdut.

Greu de crezut? Cred si eu.

Maine la NFP , daca prima miscare e buy la euro si SP buy, ne corectam pe Decembrie.

Daca Euro e pe dos ca SP .. nu stiu.

Azi am auzit ca, dupa PIGS pe fagas intra si Franta. Da. Parisul o sa fie salvat de Berlin. Interesant, nu?

Petrolul in vizor cat tine razmerita. Azi e Vineri, chiar daca Euro face noi varfuri prefer sa o iau de la capat de Luni.

Traim "vremuri istorice" si prefer sa pastrez ce am ciugulit saptamana asta.

iar peste 1.50

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/greece-to-receive-up-to-124-billion-in-new-aid.html

BEN e dupa colt. Totul e mai complicat ca acum 5 minute.

Probabil ca ne pregatim de o noua masiva cadere a Dolarului in fata AUD, NZD, Jen(probabil) Euro, Lira si CAD.

Nu m-as mira sa vin din concediu in Septembrie si Euro sa fie la 1.5

Si uite cum in 5 minute, din ce parea un sell off la 1.41 trecem la 1.4399 target.

Sansele ca QE3 sa apara au crescut considerabil.

Q. How should investors approach currency investing both in terms of hedging and seeking investment returns? What are the opportunities and risks?

Clarida: At PIMCO, we like to separate in our own minds an investment decision on a security with a separate decision on whether we want to take the related currency bet. In today’s markets, investors are generally able to hedge currency exposure.

Also, certain PIMCO strategies may invest directly in currencies. Broadly, our approach to investing in currencies is to think of them as a way to express our macro views about opportunities in a number of countries.

With our New Normal worldview of headwinds to growth in developed markets and tailwinds in emerging markets, we now generally look at emerging market and G-10 currencies simultaneously and with the same analytical framework. As I discussed earlier, we anticipate EM policymakers will allow their currencies to appreciate in the years ahead as they nurture domestic consumption. And in contrast to the ‘80s and ‘90s, in recent years EM currencies have been less volatile than G-10 currencies. Thus, EM currencies can be attractive opportunities.

Of course, as with any financial investment, there are risks to investing in currencies. The primary risk, in our view, is that there are periods in which volatility spikes and in which there are potentially significant drops in a currency’s relative valuation. There is a saying in the foreign currency markets that currency trades work until they don’t. And so certainly anyone thinking of investing in currencies should also consider if portfolio managers are appropriately factoring in such tail risk. That is certainly a focus at PIMCO.

It’s all boiling up about trade…that is why the Germans and the Chinese are so anti QE. They fear a weaker Dollar.

http://www.ft.com/cm...k#ixzz14cDUkj00

si mai colorat aici

http://blogs.forbes....cy-war-commeth/

HALIFAX, Canada — The United States faces a possible war with Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions and a "period of confrontation" with China over its currency, a top US lawmaker warned Saturday. fro AFP

De pe situl the voice of Rusia:

The World Trade Organization is sounding alarm over “currency wars” which pose the biggest threat to global economy. A statement to that effect was published on Thursday in a special report ahead of a G20 summit in Seoul next week.

WTO experts say that even though the G20 countries are successfully resisting the temptation of resorting to protectionism in trade, many are induced to do so because of unemployment and tension on the currency markets. In their words, the so-called “dark clouds” on the global financial market pose the main threat to economic recovery, since the “fallout” from these “clouds” may prove so overwhelming that it will sweep transitional and developing economies.

(Reuters) - Policymakers from the world's new economic powerhouses in Latin America and Asia said they would consider fresh steps to curb capital inflows after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would print billions of dollars to rescue its economy.

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52663520101107

Following the meeting of G20 finance ministers, the risk of war exchange you think spread?

Group determination was indeed to avoid a war exchange. The Ministers discussed this issue specifically.. We are committed not to resort to policies of competitive devaluations. But we also agreed we would set broader objectives in terms of our current account balances, without stigmatizing a particular country. All surplus countries such as deficit countries on commercial terms, must be alert to changes in their trade. While we have not established numerical goals desired by the U.S. administration. Because the situation of the G20 countries is different. In particular, countries with high commodity exporters have argued that the trade balance was different in nature. In the end, we agreed to a "path of peace," but we do not yet have tools at our disposal. This presages the work of the French presidency of the G20 next year. These works represent one of the objectives of President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is working to develop a new international monetary system.

Christine Lagarde is the current Minister of Economic Affairs, Industry and Employment of France

Citat din http://www.lesechos.fr/

TOKYO (MNI) – Yen-selling interventions conducted by the Group of

Seven industrialized nations is estimated to have totaled Y2 trillion to

Y2.5 trillion, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Sunday.

The newspaper said that the European Central Bank, Bank of England

and the Federal Reserve conducted yen-selling interventions in their

markets after the Tokyo market closed on Friday.

This is the first concerted G-7 forex action since September 2000,

when the euro came under heavy selling as capital flowed into the U.S.

stock market at the peak of the IT bubble.

The newspaper also noted that the bulk of the yen-selling

interventions was done by Japanese authorities.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Friday, “Following

the G-7 agreement, the government and Bank of Japan will implement

intervention in the foreign exchange market from 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).”

By Market News International

BRUSSELS—European leaders agreed in the wee hours Saturday on a program of long-term economic overhauls to the 17-member euro zone, and authorized a beefing-up of the bloc's bailout fund for troubled countries.

Mr. Trichet said the decisions made at the summit "go in the right direction."

http://online.wsj.com

La 21 30 euro era la 1.3984 fata de 1.3903 close ul de Vineri.

Zvonul zice ca FED va pune 500 de miliarde la bataie in urmatoarele 6 luni si ca asta va anunta azi la FOMC la 8 si 15 minute in seara asta ora Romaniei.

Primul QE a fost de 1700 de miliarde.

Daca vor fi 500 de miliarde Euro/USD este deja "PRICED IN".

Daca vor fi mai multi bani un spike Up este probabil dar in acest caz celelate banci centrale vor incerca in perioada imediat urmatoare sa contracareze venind si ele cu stimuli, cu bani adica, astfel incat sa echilibreze balanta.

Dar pana diseara avem ADP Non-Farm Employment Change la 14.15 ora Ro.

Elicopterele sunt in aer si azi incepe atacul!!!

Inca nu se stie cat dar se stie ca a facut cererea de imprumut.

Inca o tara care-si pierde independenta. Urmeaza Portugalia, Spania si Italia.

Si uite asa se transforma datorii private in datorii de stat.

Tinand cont ca Large Speculators sunt in continuare Long pe Euro, corectia ultimei caderi ne poate duce in decembrie mai sus. Probabil ca m-am grabit zicand ca nu vom mai vedea 1.40. Poate de acolo, din ianuarie sa iau Euro catre 1.20.

Si acum despre favoritul meu barbos: Ben Bernanke. Federeal Reserve In 8 luni va fi cel mai mare actionar al guvernului american.

Iar asta nu da bine pentru Marti de Long euro. Asa ca dau buy doar azi si Marti ma mai gandesc.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576330922938703858.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

Pe scurt :

The European Central Bank is moving to exit the low interest rates and special liquidity measures it adopted during the financial crisis, and the bank will have "a basis for new decisions" at its next rate-setting meeting in June, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said.

The euro zone's inflation rate has since risen further, to 2.8% in April from 2.7% in March, well above the ECB's target of close to but below 2%

"It was clear that the ECB would not take the decision" on a new rate rise before receiving new forecasts for the euro-zone economy, Mr. Nowotny said. The ECB is due to publish its biannual staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area in June.

The ECB council member said stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth of 0.8% in the euro zone "is definitely something that will enter into our discussions." Asked about further rate rises this year, Mr. Nowotny said strong growth coupled with higher inflation "could have some effect on interest-rate policy, so that further steps might follow."

Mr. Nowotny said the ECB isn't very likely to buy more government bonds in the near future. The central bank has bought bonds of peripheral euro-zone states worth €76 billion since May last year, but hasn't made any new purchases for the past seven weeks. "My personal view is that as far as possible we should not use [bond-buying] again," Mr. Nowotny said.

Nu vad cum din cele de mai sus s-ar putea crea un trend de sell cel putin pana in Iunie.

Raman Long ca perspectiva de saptamana viitoare dupa deznodamantul negocierilor privind Grecia.

The euro advanced versus the dollar for a fifth day as traders increased bets the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy and Greece progressed in staving off a default.

The euro headed for a weekly advance against 12 of its 16 major peers after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval to implement an austerity plan needed to keep aid flowing to his nation. The Dollar Index was was set for its biggest weekly decline since January before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturing growth slowed in May. The New Zealand dollar weakened on dimmer prospects for exports after a Chinese manufacturing index fell.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/dollar-advances-on-outlook-for-u-s-economy-aussie-drops-on-china-data.html

Top-performing global bond fund managers are sticking with long-term bets against the U.S. dollar even as the currency has rallied more than 4 percent since the end of last month.

From Bill Gross, who runs the $241 billion Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX), to Anthony Norris, whose Wells Fargo Advantage International Bond Fund has $1.8 billion, the investors are convinced that the greenback will lose ground against a range of currencies in emerging markets and selected developed countries such as Australia and Norway.

continuarea pe link

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/u-s-dollar-unloved-by-global-bond-managers-with-eyes-for-emerging-markets.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji0xDg6EVvI&feature=player_embedded#!

Hello my love

It's getting cold on this island

I'm sad alone

I'm so sad on my own

The truth is

We were much too young

Now I'm looking for you

Or anyone like you

We said goodbye

With the smile on our faces

Now you're alone

You're so sad on your own

The truth is

We run out of time

Now you’re looking for me

Or anyone like me

Na na na na…

Hello my love

It's getting cold on this island

I'm sad alone

I'm so sad on my own

The truth is

We were much too young

Now I'm looking for you

Or anyone like you

Pimco, cel mai mare fond mutual in prezent.

Are si analize free

http://www.pimco.com...Hard-Money.aspx

Daca vrei sa sti mai bine ce sume invart:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pimco

Euro, dupa mine ramane tot de buy chiar dupa macelul de ieri.

Acum, ca e mai clar ca ce urmeaza e neclar, QE2 adica Quantitative Easing partea a doua se pare ca are sanse mari sa intre in piata saptamana viitoare .

Marti la FOMC aflam cat si cum, cand si mai ales daca.

Scopul este prevenirea deflatiei in toata lumea care ar face cresterea economica sa fie cu pasi prea mici iar ca QE2 sa fie eficient ar trebui sa avem si o reactie mai agresiva in piata de comoditati. Deocamadata piata a reactionat deja la zonul aparitiei QE2 iar reactiile pe SP, DOW, Dolar Index sau AUD deja arata directia.

Peste toate, In SUA avem in curand alegeri. Obama simte presiunea si logica mea spune ca daca nu va avea un dolar slab pentru semestrele 3 si 4 nu prea mai are sanse sa opreasca caderea Democratilor. Pe zi ce trece mi se pare ca Democratii sunt defapt partidul de "sacrificiu" unde Republicanii fac "prostii" si democratii "spala rusinea".

La Euro pe mantli arata ca pinul functioneaza iar pe uicli se pare ca terminam peste 38fib masurat pe cadearea din decembrie, miscare care ma duce cu gandul la 50fib.

AUD respecta fundamentul si il astept la dublu top all time high.

1.35 in Octombrie sau targetul anului 1.38?

Ben, sa traiesti ca te-ai tinut de cuvant.

Astept elicopterul.

Nu ai dat buy azi caci ai fost plecat ?

Nu ai dat sell azi la 1.4120 ?

Maine 15 Oct la 3.15 ora Ro Ben mai are ceva de zis.... Oare va misca piata?

Pana atunci poti sa vinzi Apple ca e pretul bun.

Un tip care a papat pe paine ce s-a intamplat in 33', omul anului 2009 conform Time, cel care "tipareste" sperante si le arunca peste noi cu elicopterul, cel care a "salvat" AIG, maine va avea probabil cel mai important discurs al carierei sale.

Daca "asset purchases" si "quantitative easing" vor fi temele centrale atunci sperantele mele se vor materializa, sperante care se indreapta catre o iesire din recesiune fara "al doilea picior", unde trendul revenirii comoditatilor va fi anevoios dar long, unde dolarul va pierde incet teren si lumea va rasufla usurata.

Nu vreau sa vad altceva.

Portugal - €78B rescue package over three years; Parliament still needs to approve the deal

La 12 1 pe la pranz este conferinta de presa cu anuntarea pachetului de salvare a Portugaliei si imediat vine Mr. Trichet sa ne mai zica cate una doua. Sanse mari sa fie foarte ingrijorat de infaltie si sa ramana "vigilent".

Acum sunt 2 variante - ori o da tare la deal si EU se duce pe la 1.5150 ori ne corectam la 1.4750 . Varianta cu range la 1.50 nu o exclud dar e cu sanse mai mici. Merg pe corectie totusi 2 3 zile si de pe la 4750 sa fie loc de buy.

At some point, we will get the headlines hitting the wires that the BOJ is buying USD/JPY.

We may also get headlines that the Fed, the ECB and BOE are buying USD/JPY as well., depending on the time of day. That does not necessarily mean that coordinated intervention is underway.

Often central banks will act “as agent” for other central banks, intervening in their local markets and then handing over the net position to, in this case, the BOJ.

Coordinated intervention means that each central bank acts in coordinated fashion for there own accounts, showing the market that each central bank has “skin in the game”, giving the action greater credibility.

The first hurdle the Japanese will want to overcome is 79.75/80.00. Beyond that is the 81.75 area, the support line broken decisively earlier this week.

Forexlive.com

Bun. Nu avem quantitative easing dar avem optimism moderat, avem un GDP mai bun decat cel previzionat, in cadere dar mai bun si mai avem un ochi ager care in caz ca...

Monedele cu comoditati au aratat directia saptamanii ce vine, Dolarul a pierdut in fata Euro si Lirei. SP si Dow sunt la deal dupa o prima dezamagire.

Saptamana ce vine in schimb ne pune iar pe ganduri: NFP, a 3 a luna la rand cu minus.

Ce faci domnule Bernanke daca se adevereste previziunea, intervi sau nu? caci asa ai spus azi in discursul tau, ca esti vigilent la orice cadere.

Sunt tare curios sa vad ce vei face si totusi, job urile.... ?

Pe la FED bate vantul schimbarii limbajului. Vor sa reduca valoarea QE2 sau sa-l termine mai repede de Iunie ceea ce se traduce in semnal de Long Dolar. Daca rata la Euro creste si la conferinta Mr. Trichet sugereaza ca va urma o succesiune de cresteri ale ratei dobanzii raman long Euro pentru 1.50 pentru Mai, urmand sa vad ce spune Bernanke despre asta.