Barbones' Blog

Portugal - €78B rescue package over three years; Parliament still needs to approve the deal

La 12 1 pe la pranz este conferinta de presa cu anuntarea pachetului de salvare a Portugaliei si imediat vine Mr. Trichet sa ne mai zica cate una doua. Sanse mari sa fie foarte ingrijorat de infaltie si sa ramana "vigilent".

Acum sunt 2 variante - ori o da tare la deal si EU se duce pe la 1.5150 ori ne corectam la 1.4750 . Varianta cu range la 1.50 nu o exclud dar e cu sanse mai mici. Merg pe corectie totusi 2 3 zile si de pe la 4750 sa fie loc de buy.

Pe la FED bate vantul schimbarii limbajului. Vor sa reduca valoarea QE2 sau sa-l termine mai repede de Iunie ceea ce se traduce in semnal de Long Dolar. Daca rata la Euro creste si la conferinta Mr. Trichet sugereaza ca va urma o succesiune de cresteri ale ratei dobanzii raman long Euro pentru 1.50 pentru Mai, urmand sa vad ce spune Bernanke despre asta.

Putin also said Russia in the future may even want to join the monetary union.

Despite the problems, the euro has proven to Putin as a "stable world currency.

He also praised the efforts of the European Central Bank and Member States in order to stabilize the currency.When questioned whether Russia in the future also comes to the euro, Putin said that the "rapprochement of Russia and Europe is inevitable."

Putin also said there was scope for greater use of the euro in international energy trade and voiced confidence in the stability of the single European currency.. Reuters si nu.nl

Cred ca Putin e long pe euro de pe la 1.32 si vrea sa-l duca la 1.47

Miscarea la Euro "ghicita" inca din August nu ne-a luat prin surprindere . Problema azi este cat de long va fi trendul si cat de scurta va fi retragerea.

1.42 este un target gasit de alti pe care-i cred si 1.50 previzionat de alte persoane.

Eu zic ca pe 3 Noiembrie vom avea ceva miscare,

Cu pending sau nu, tot e ceva de luat. Nu stiu daca la fel de puternic ca in Dec 2008 dar miscarea se aseamana.

Cine a cautat in fundament miscarea pe Euro si Aud a fost "long", cine cauta varfuri tehnice, deci a dat sell pe toata urcarea asta, a avut ceva probleme.

Si asta este deabea inceputul.

Aseara Fed s-a mai apropiat cu un pas de QE2 zicand ca daca inflatia nu e pe cararea buna vor avea ei grija sa nu se piarda prin padure. Reactia a fost deloc surprinzatoare, Euro a creat new high peste sma si ema 200 on daily iar AUD a fost vedeta emisiunii. Aurul nu stiu ce cauta acolo dar ma interesez.

Azi, la Minuta BoE

"On balance, most members thought that the current level of Bank Rate and stock of asset

purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remained appropriate to balance the risks

to the inflation outlook in the medium term. But both key risks were substantial, and these members

stood ready to respond in either direction as the balance of risks evolved. For some of those members,

the probability that further action would become necessary to stimulate the economy and keep inflation

on track to hit the target in the medium term had increased. "

.Deci si Lira ar avea drum la munte ca si majorele in general. Sigur ca, acum as vrea totusi sa astept si NFP ul pe Octombrie si mai ales rezultatele Q3 pe SUA ca sa dau buy toata toamna linistit dar si asa, tonul e dat cat de cat si cu picul de ajutor dat de "new homes" in SUA.

Tot somajul ramane problema si din Q&A cu Obama de la CNBC de alataieri imi ramane o propozitie in minte care spune mult despre ceea ce gandesc si eu printre milioanele care inca il mai simpatizeaza :

"Is this my new reality?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQ8sxTsllk&feature=related

si cu grecii cum ramane?

Aud are nivel psihologic bun de marcare a profitului. Cum nu am fost long poate prind caderea pentru 250 de pips dupa ce atinge 1.1

De marti cred.

Problema mare azi si maine. Daca la NFP vom vedea EURO, AUD, jos la final de zi si SP UP trendul la euro s a terminat,

Vine Mai. Corectie la Dolar si incerc sa iau vreo 200 pe EU pe sell de la 1.50 dar cu trail de 80.

Mai vedem dupa Conferinta.

Doamnelor si Domnilor

De maine incepe vacanta asa ca echipa emisiunii va doreste vizionare placuta in continuare pana la sedinta ECB din Mai.

Oare zicala "Sell in May and go away" mai merge daca nenea Trichet ridica rata?

Eu zic ca nu peste 50%.

Se spune ca cel de al 2 lea picior al recesiunii ar trebui sa inceapa sa se formeze saptamana asta, tehnic vorbind, fundamental vorbind oricand se poate nu numai acum iar statistic, August si Septembrie sunt in favoarea dolarului ceea ce ar fi in concordanta cu primele doua.

Primele semne ca totusi nu se va intampla ca-n 33' sunt mediocre, Euro a reusit sa reziste caderii, deocamdata, sub 2750 si a atacat 2900, Lira in schimb fundamental nu o duce prea bine zilele asta si din previziuni pe ce a mai ramas din saptamana nici atat. AUD si CAD au capatat un suflu nou pe fundament american cu Dow si SP pe noi varfuri in sus dar totusi sub asteptari iar Francul face ce stie adica rezista ... si rezista.... si rezista.

Asa ca, tot ce trebuie sa vedem saptamana asta sau macar pe inceputul lui Septembrie este un nou val de cadere a dolarului. Astfel statistica, fundamentul si tehnicul sa nu mai lucreze in favoarea crizei iar paternul Celei de a Doua Mari Crize sa fie invers Primei.

La Euro raman inca cu SL ul la 2750 (mental ca nu ma buy) iar pe final de saptamana daca americanii fac contabilitatea sa dea bine il mut la 2800 pentru ca euro ar trebui sa treca de 2900 macar ca testare.

EU's Juncker: Final assessment on new Greece austerity measures to take place next week

Cum coincide cu sfarsitul QE2 deja e mai complicat. Indicatiile de la JP si Goldman zic de Petrol peste 120 Dolari si deci Euro tot la deal doar ca pana atunci avem range. Probabil ca prima saptamana din Iunie va da directia odata cu cele 2 evenimente , Trichet si end QE2.

Pana atunci va doresc un scalp placut.

Azi 28Feb, Rata la AUD pentru cine e treaz la 5 dimineata, Somajul in UE si Japonia.

Pana vine Mr. Trichet si Bernanke mai avem o ultima sansa sa vedem alieni in direct.

Ultima iesire a navetei Discovery STS-133

http://www.nasa.gov/...satv/index.html

COT zice ca suntem net long pe lira la cel mai mare nivel fata de 7 saptamani in urma.

Cum politica FED anuntata de curand spune ca o eventuala inasprire a conditiilor va avea loc probabil in iarna ce vine iar in Iunie dupa QE2 nu avem nicio miscare din partea FED care sa duca la intarirea Dolarului sansele pentru Lira cresc pentru target 1.82.

Nu stiu de unde sa o iau long , poate pe la jumatea saptamanii viitoare dupa NFP... . Mai vedem.

Daca 1.40 respinge saptamana asta si saptamana viitoare avem crestere de dobanda la Euro, targetul este rezonabil.

Cine nu este de acord cu predictia este binevenit cu contraargumente.

Tot vineri (acum o saptamana)s-a petrecut un alt eveniment, de data aceasta având conotaţii istorice. Aflat în vizită în Turcia, premierul chinez Wen Jiabao a anunţat, împreună cu premierul turc Recep Erdogan, eliminarea dolarului din contractele bilaterale dintre cele două ţări. Aşa se face că, începând cu data amintitei vizite, valutele utilizate în schimburile dintre cele două ţări vor fi lira şi yuan-ul. Este primul contract de acest tip care practic aruncă în derizoriu moneda americană. Schimburile comerciale dintre China şi Turcia au în prezent o valoare de peste 15 miliarde de dolari, iar cei doi oficiali îşi propun triplarea acestora în următorii cinci ani.

Continuarea pe http://trenduri.blogspot.com/2010/10/noua-conflagratie.html

The euro's gyrations this year have taken hedge funds by surprise, saddling some of the biggest names in the currency markets with losses.

FX Concepts, an $8 billion currency-focused hedge fund in New York, struggled with losses as Europe's shared currency unexpectedly surged last month. Other hedge funds in the U.S. and Europe, including Bridgewater Associates Inc. and Moore Capital Management, have also stumbled recently, several investors and bankers say.

For months, Wall Street banks have recommended that investors sell the euro while buying higher-yielding currencies, such as those of emerging-market economies. So far, these bets haven't panned out

http://online.wsj.com

German Fin Min Schaeuble: Expects IMF/EU/ECB report on Greece in one week

Pana atunci e frumos afara sau ceva sell pe Lira cu toate ca nu prea ma incanta.

After six weeks of protests, the Middle East turmoil has now spread to a major oil producer for the first time, causing the price of Brent crude to hit $105 per barrel—a level not seen since September 2008. That price reaction may exaggerate Libya's importance, but it reflects growing concerns the crisis may spread to other producers

European shares fell sharply Monday, led by the financial sector, as investors nervously watched the political unrest spreading across the Mideast and North Africa.

De la WSJ.com

Cumulat cu inflatia maricica in UE sansele ca ECB sa ridice dobanda sunt mai mari ca acum 1 saptamana. Daca bondurile pe Portigalia isi pastreaza nivelul aproximativ, sentimentul se poate schimba pe zona Euro de la frica de default la specula pe cresterea ratei dobanzii,

Azi Germania a surprins din nou pozitiv iar restul datelor sunt incurajatoare.

Dolarul a pierdut 5% intr-o luna in fata celorlate majore.

Pe la banca centrala a Australiei se zice ca AUD e bun la paritate.

ECB urla ca 1.40 pentru Euro nu e bun

Japonia arunca zeci de miliarde oficial de ceva vreme sa slabeasca JEN ul

iar de Franc si CAD nu mai zic nimic.

Intalnirea din week end ul asta intre greii lumii la Banca Mondiala nu a adus la finalul ei nimic concret motiv de gap pe startul saptamanii, doar s-a amanat o rezolutie la o urmatoare intalnire, asta ce a transpirat prin presa caci ce s-a discutat cu adevarat nu prea se stie.

Toate astea adunate, cu China care isi arata coltii de ceva vreme arata de parca suntem martorii celei mai tensionate perioade de dupa startul recesiunii din 2007.

Obama trebuie sa scoata camasa Democratilor foarte repede, altfel inceputul finalului pentru ei incepe in cateva saptamani odata cu primele alegeri si se pare ca singura optiune este QE2 lucru care a slabit deja dolarul dar nu stim daca acum este sau nu in pret zvonul si ar urma ca odata cu aparitia lui oficiala, pe 3 Nov sa inceapa marcarea profiturilor, greu de zis.

Prima data QE1 a fost in Dec 2008 si se vede pe charturi ce a produs.

Razboiul a inceput, primele negocieri nu sunt date publicitatii.

O saptamana grea pentru traderi daca nu vom avea o reactie clara.

Toate majorele arata tehnic reversal si totusi.......

China spune ca nu vrea sa se lupte cu FED.

FED zice ca pot fi si 6 mii de miliarde in noul QE2. Obama tre sa castige, nu?

Azi, FOMC zice fara echivoc ca restul lumii nu conteaza.

QE2 .CLAR.

Ce a zis FED a dus la New 5 month High pe SP. Sa mai zici ca Ben nu are elicoptere.

Ce contrazice tot ce e mai sus este sentimentul pietei care spune ca stirea este deja PRICED IN..

Nimic nou sub soare.

3 Noiembrie 2010. Pun pending de acum. In ce directie?

Asta in episodul urmator.

1. We, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, met today to address ongoing economic and financial challenges and to agree on a way forward to fulfill the mandates given to us by our Leaders.

2. The global recovery is strengthening but is still uneven and downside risks remain. While most advanced economies are seeing modest growth and persisting high unemployment, emerging economies are experiencing more robust growth, some with signs of overheating. We reaffirm our willingness to ensure a consistent and coordinated response to the challenges we face, address the root causes of the crisis and restore global economic growth on a sounder basis.

3. We reaffirm our commitment to coordinated policy action by all G20 members to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Our main priority actions include implementing medium term fiscal consolidation plans differentiated according to national circumstances in line with our Toronto commitment, pursuing appropriate monetary policy, enhancing exchange rate flexibility to better reflect underlying economic fundamentals and structural reforms, to sustain global demand, increase potential growth, foster job creation and contribute to global rebalancing. We discussed progress made since the Seoul Summit and stressed the need to reduce excessive imbalances and maintain current account imbalances at sustainable levels by strengthening multilateral cooperation. We agreed on a set of indicators that will allow us to focus, through an integrated two-step process, on those persistently large imbalances which require policy actions. To complete the work required for the first step, our aim is to agree, by our next meeting in April, on indicative guidelines against which each of these indicators will be assessed, recognizing the need to take into account national or regional circumstances, including large commodity producers. While not targets, these indicative guidelines will be used to assess the following indicators: (i) public debt and fiscal deficits; and private savings rate and private debt (ii) and the external imbalance composed of the trade balance and net investment income flows and transfers, taking due consideration of exchange rate, fiscal, monetary and other policies. We also adopted a timetable for developing the 2011 action plan that will implement our Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth and monitor the commitments already made. As agreed in Seoul, we call on the IMF to provide an assessment as part of the Mutual Assessment Process on progress towards external sustainability and consistency of policies at our October meeting. At that time, we will also review a report on the MAP including an action plan informed by the analysis on the root causes of persistently large imbalances based on the agreed guidelines. We will also review an assessment of progress made in meeting commitments made in Seoul.

4. The international monetary system (IMS) has proven resilient, but vulnerabilities remain, which raise the need to improve it in order to ensure systemic stability, promote orderly adjustment, and avoid disruptive fluctuations in capital flows, disorderly movements in exchange rates – including advanced economies with reserve currencies being vigilant against excess volatility – and persistent misalignement of exchange rates. Today we agreed on a work program aimed at strengthening the functioning of the IMS, including through coherent approaches and measures to deal with potentially destabilizing capital flows, among which macro-prudential measures, mindful of possible drawbacks; and management of global liquidity to strengthen our capacity to prevent and deal with shocks, including issues such as Financial Safety Nets and the role of the SDR. This will also require discussions on exchange rates issues and on the strengthening of IMF surveillance. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting in April a report from the IMF on the strengthening of the IMS and reports by the World Bank and the RDBs building on experiences, on actions to strengthen local capital markets and domestic currency borrowing in emerging and developing economies. In addition, we will benefit from the work of OECD on capital flows, and from the contributions of other relevant international organizations, such as UNCTAD.

5. We discussed concerns about consequences of potential excessive commodity price volatility and asked our deputies to work with international organizations and to report back to us on the underlying drivers and the challenges posed by these trends for both consumers and producers and consider possible actions. Keeping in mind the impact of this volatility on food security, we reiterated the need for long-term investment in the agricultural sector in developing countries. We welcomed the interim report by the IEF, IEA and OPEC to improve the quality, timeliness and reliability of the Joint Organization Data Initiative Oil (JODI oil) and call for further work on strategies to implement these recommendations to be detailed in their final report. Building on the Riyadh symposium held on January 24th, we encourage the IEF to provide concrete strategies to improve the producer-consumer dialogue at its next meeting on February 22nd 2011. Following our Leaders’ request, we call on the IMF and IEF, as well as IEA, GECF and OPEC, to develop by October 2011 concrete recommendations to extend the G20’s work on oil price volatility to gas and coal. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting the report of IEF, IEA, OPEC and IOSCO on price reporting agencies as well as the interim report on food security currently being undertaken by the relevant international organizations, and IOSCO’s recommendations, and the FSB’s consideration of next steps, on regulation and supervision of commodity derivatives markets notably to strengthen transparency and address market abuses.

6. We commit to pursuing the reform of the financial sector. Despite good progress, significant work remains. We will implement fully the Basel III new standards for banks within the agreed timelines while taking due account of the agreed observation periods and review clauses in respect of the liquidity standards. Likewise, we will implement in an internationally consistent and non-discriminatory way the FSB’s recommendations on OTC derivatives and on reducing reliance on credit rating agencies’ ratings. We look forward to the completion by the next Leaders’ Summit of the following ongoing work on systemically important financial institutions as scheduled in the FSB work program for 2011: determination of Global-systemically important financial institutions by FSB and national authorities based on indicative criteria, a comprehensive multi-pronged framework with more intensive supervisory oversight; effective resolution capacity including in a cross-border context; higher loss absorbency measures through a menu of viable alternatives that may include, depending on national circumstances, capital surcharges, contingent capital and bail-in instruments ; and other supplementary requirements as determined by the national authorities including systemic levies. Once the framework initially applicable to G-SIFIs is agreed, we will move expeditiously to cover all SIFIs. We look forward to the 2 reports to be finalized by the BIS, IMF and FSB on macro-prudential frameworks and by the FSB, IMF and World Bank with input of national authorities on financial stability issues in emerging market and developing economies by our October meeting. We look forward to the recommendations that the FSB will prepare by mid-2011 on regulation and oversight of the shadow banking system to efficiently address the risks, notably of arbitrage, associated with shadow banking and its interactions with the regulated banking system. We call on IOSCO to develop by mid-2011 recommendations to promote markets’ integrity and efficiency notably to mitigate the risks created by the latest technological developments. We also call on the FSB to bring forward for our next meeting comprehensive proposals to strengthen its governance, resources and outreach. We urge all jurisdictions to fully implement the FSB principles and standards on sounder compensation practices agreed by the G20 Leaders in Pittsburgh and call on the FSB to undertake ongoing monitoring in this area and look forward to receiving the results of a second thorough FSB peer review midyear to identify remaining gaps. We call on the OECD, the FSB and other relevant international organizations to develop common principles on consumer protection in the field of financial services by our October meeting. We reaffirm our commitment to more effective oversight and supervision, including regular stress testing of banks building on the Basel committee’s principles.

7. We reiterated our call to improve compliance with international standards and strengthen the process of identifying non-cooperative jurisdictions. We look forward to the forthcoming update by FATF of the public list of jurisdictions with strategic deficiencies and to a public list of all jurisdictions evaluated by the FSB ahead of the next G20 Leaders Summit. We welcome the 18 peer reviews issued by the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information and urge all jurisdictions so far identified as not having the elements in place to achieve an effective exchange of information to promptly address the weaknesses. We look forward to the progress report by November 2011, based on the expected completion of around 60 phase 1 reviews, to address in particular the jurisdictions’ quality of cooperation with the Forum, level of compliance and unsolved deficiencies. We call upon more jurisdictions to join the Global Forum and to commit to implementing the standards. We urge all jurisdictions to extend further their networks of Tax Information Exchange Agreements and encourage jurisdictions to consider signing the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters.

8. We discussed the way forward on implementing the Seoul Development Consensus on Shared Growth and its Multi-Year Action Plan. In particular we welcome the launch of the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion last December. We also welcome the appointment of the members of the High Level Panel for Infrastructure Investment, and look forward to their recommendations by September. We discussed the report made by the UN High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing. We welcome the positive outcomes of the Cancun Climate Conference, and in particular the decision to establish a Green Climate Fund, and will pursue discussions on mobilizing sources of financing, including public and private, bilateral and multilateral, as well as innovative sources, consistent with the objective, provisions and principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

9. We reaffirm our commitment to free trade and investment recognizing its central importance for the global recovery. We will refrain from introducing, and oppose protectionist trade actions in all forms and recognize the importance of a prompt conclusion of the Doha negotiations.

10. We stand ready to support Egypt and Tunisia, with responses at the appropriate time well coordinated with the international institutions and the regional development banks to accompany reforms designed to the benefit of the whole population and the stabilization of their economies.

© Copyright ministère de l'Économie, de l'industrie et de l'emploi, 19/02/2011

Dupa 3 trenduri sanatoase pe Euro anul asta cred ca e normal sa nu ma mai astept la ceva semnfificativ pana pe 10 Ianuarie.

Cei cu bani multi in piata zic de 1.20 inainte de orice. Ca vor sa influenteze sau chiar cred asta nu stiu dar se zice ca 1,20 este un nivel "corect" in raport cu dolarul.

Pana atunci avem NFP vineri iar sentimentul ramane negativ pentru euro pentru mine de la anuntul QE2 .

Ratele bondurilor Portugaliei, Spaniei si Italiei sunt in deriva continua, spreadul in raport cu rata bondurilor Germaniei se adanceste zilnic.

Cei ce fac asta constient nu se gandesc ca vor suporta consecintele? C-am artificiala treaba. Prea rapid se intampla si prea la fix a inceput.

Complicat.

Clar este ca suntem la jumatatea drumului din urcarea din low ul anului si nu cred ca avem motiv sa urcam acum.

O tensiune in Korea, bula inflationista in China, PIGS pe UE, final de an, toate duc la un dolar tare.

Joi, Trichet mai are ceva de zis pana pleca la bunici la tara pentru Craciun, Vineri avem zi frumoasa pe NFP cu predictie buna la somaj iar Vinerea Neagra da semne bune tot pe SUA pentru sf. de an.

Daca corelarea de luna trecuta se mentile la NFP dam sell la euro si buy la Apple.

Maine imi pun cauciucurile de iarna.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFtb3EtjEic