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Sarrafx's Blog

Un blog de sarrafx în General

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Market view and Trade Ideas

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Out of Control

Is the situation in Europe out of control?   It seems that more and more issues are piling up on the already unsolved problems that have been in existence virtually since the crisis began in 2008!   Greece has apparently met only 22% of its responsibilities to cut spending under the latest bailout and has asked for a two year extension to its obligations.   It is hard to imagine that Greece can survive within the Eurozone given its lack of ability driven by social unrest to meet the agreements i
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Know your market

In the banks I have worked in, all the traders specialized in one , two or a maximum of three currency pairs and that was all they traded.   The reason for this is that they got a "feel" for their market and understood what was happening, could align technical and fundamental analysis. This gave then an all round view of those currencies and was a major factor in making them money.   It is important when trading currencies to have that "relationship" with the currencies you follow to build up a
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Has the downtrend resumed?

The market is now well and truly over the euphoria which greeted the EBC’s bond purchase scheme. It also didn’t murder the dollar when QE3 was announced.   The global economy is struggling and there are fewer and fewer bright-spots for the market to focus upon. The Aud, the darling of the risk on brigade has given way to the JPY, the darling of the risk off brigade! We can’t consider the Chf anymore as it is heavily shackled by the SNB.   Now it appears as though the Euro (the darling of no one
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Greeece remains ar Europes Centre

It seems that we can no longer label those heavily indebted countries of Southern Europe as being the periphery. The idea that Greece leaving the Eurozone could cause the disintegration of the single currency means that the tail continues to wag the dog and will do for some time to come. Europe is at last waking up to the idea that were Greece to leave, then the domino effect could be catastrophic. Keeping Greece in the club and funding its needs seems to have been accepted as policy. Mrs Merkel
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Frayed at the edges

The President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus, is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.   In an interview yesterday he made some very valid points regarding the peripheral countries and those on the outside looking to enter.   He called himself a “euro-realist,” saying he supports European integration while not embracing the shift towards “unification, centralization, harmonization, standardization” of the whole continent, including the single currency.   The term Euro-Realist
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Forex Factory

In the not so distant past before communication reached the level it is now, pricing FX transactions was extremely slow and complicated. For example, slang for the Gbp/Usd rate is "cable. This is because each price was made by cable (or telegraph) and as markets didn't move like they do today it could take the best part of a day to receive a request, make a price and confirm a deal. Contrast that with todays FX markets where trades take place in milliseconds. In the City of London,
sarrafx

sarrafx

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FOMC & beyond

http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/43/FOMC-&-Beyond     The Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement was as dovish as it could possibly get. But then, surely it was acting in accordance with its mandate. The Committee explained that, "without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions." They outlined their new bond purchase program, pledged to do more if the labor market doesn't improve an
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Experience is Everything

Suppose for a moment you are given the opportunity to drive a two seat saloon car around Brands Hatch or Hockenheim race tracks.     Would you opt to do it either alone or with another novice driver or would you opt to have Michael Schumacher sitting next to you?     Of course most of us would choose Michael Schumacher. More of this later!     The interbank market is the driving force of the price action in FX markets yet to all but a handful of retail or margin trade its workings are a mystery.
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Euro Analysis

With the event risk ahead and the market slightly in over bought zone and the monthly trend line acting as resistance further gains on close basis would be difficult.   Now that the ongoing momentum took the pair towards the 1.2900 plus zone, one can expect a failure.   Dollar bulls lost the plot across the board.   Presently Euro price action is near 34 WMA and the Ichimoku has not thrown any change in the trend.   As we have been indicating in the big picture 1.2780 is the conversion point for
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Delaying the inevitable

In much the same way that markets awaited the first week of September to see the market spring back into life and into the second week for the announcements and measures that would set the tone for Q4 we now await the next peak or trough on the rollercoaster.   Last weeks’ information has been digested and markets looked on Germany, The ECB and The Fed as positive for risk but not so positively that they feel we should shoot for the moon and stars.   The Euro has been on a huge rally that has ta
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sarrafx

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