DJ UPDATE:Analysts Cut Romania GDP Forecast After 1H Data-Agency

BUCHAREST (Dow Jones)--Weaker-than-expected Romanian economic growth of 5.8% in the first half of the year drove analysts Tuesday to lower their year-end forecasts to well below official estimates, news agency Mediafax reported.

Romania's economy has recorded robust growth over the past few years, with growth accelerating to 7.7% last year, and Romanian authorities expect economic growth of 6.5% this year.

"It's highly unlikely that Romania's GDP growth will top 5.8% this year," said Ionut Dumitru, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank Romania.

Agriculture will be mostly responsible for a slowdown in GDP growth in the remainder of the year, he said, as the country has been hit by the worst heatwave in the last 60 years.

Earlier Tuesday, Romania's Statistics Institute said second-quarter GDP grew 5.6% compared with 7.8% in the year-earlier period, but didn't give any reasons for the slowdown. It said it would give further details on GDP growth in a press conference Friday.

Analysts, however, cited taxes, lower industrial output and the country's heat-ravaged agriculture sector.

"Weaker tax revenues, which in the first quarter trimmed GDP growth (of 6.0%) by 1 percentage point, might have lingered in the second quarter as well," said Ciprian Dascalu, senior economist at ING Bank in Bucharest.

"Of course, we can only assume these to be the main reasons for the slowdown," he added.

Radu Craciun, an analyst at ABN Amro Romania, said he expects economic growth to range between 5.5% and 5.9% this year.

Analysts at international ratings agencies also revised forecasts on Romania Tuesday.

"The slowdown in growth is expected. There is probably some base effects after last year's rapid growth," said Kenneth Orchard of Moody's Investors Service Inc., adding the ratings agency's latest data indicate Romania's economy will grow 5.8% in 2007.

"First-half GDP growth of 5.8% was below my expectation of 6-6.5%. I had thought GDP was likely to grow 6.5% over 2007 as a whole. I am revising that down to 6.0%," said Andrew Colquhoun, a senior analyst at Fitch.

The slowdown in first-half GDP growth had an immediate impact on the Romanian leu, which sank to a near four-month low of RON3.3105 against the euro Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.mediafax.ro