TheEconomist

Ai stabilit tematica ?

Randamentul e relativ, Tavi... Un bogat se descurca si cu 10% , saracului nu-i ajunge nici 200% ... Traind intr-un oras mic, am invatat ca banii nu sunt totul in viata, desi sunt un roman obisnuit, la fel de dornic de imbogatire ca si ceilalti . Pur si simplu nu vad banii ca fiind "ultimate purpose". E mai bine sa faci un sistem care sa scoata 30% pentru un bogat de pe urma caruia ai castiga mult mai mult decat de la un serviciu obisnuit , in conditiile in care iti poti schimba orasul, cunostintele, drumul zilnic catre servici, imaginea personala, atat in ochii altora cat mai ales in ochii tai, decat sa faci aceiasi 30% pe proprii bani si sa-ti iei la sfarsitul anului o placa video cu profitul... La inceput, eram convins ca e vorba de bani... Acum sunt convins ca e viata e in primul rand NOTORIETATE, la care se adauga, in cazul nostru, un randament rational. Poate sunt hedge funds care castiga 20% anual... dar angajatii lor traiesc la Londra in apartamente de lux si participa la high-life-ul social, iar romanii care ar scoate 20% din forex ar sta la Medgidia , Lumina sau Cucuietii din Deal fara sa aiba nici macar o unda de satisfactie in viata... Caci, de fapt, nimic nu conteaza in viata decat sa fii FERICIT, iar banii din cufar iti dau aceasta fericire, dar fara cheita notorietatii, fericirea ramane un simplu noroc... adica nu e in mana ta, ci a Providentei, care in mod sigur, nu gandeste ca tine. Cred ca fotbalul e cel mai tare exemplu. Nimeni nu garanteaza golurile, dar au sute de mii de euro la degetul mic. Ce au facut, l-au mituit pe Dumnezeu ?

atunci eu ma bag pe tehnici de programare MQL4, experti si scripturi (nu ma bag pe indicatori colorati) si poate ceva grid trading.

Ai dreptate, dar totusi nu uita ca motorul unui Hedge Fund e un holy grail . E piesa esentiala, sine qua non a lui. Dar o revista nu are un holy grail. Cati n-au citit articole de Barbara Rockefeller , Kathy Lien sau... Gabriela Vranceanu-Firea. Au prezentat VREUN holy grail in reviste sau articole ? NU. Atunci ce cauta in presa financiara ? am zice noi... Poanta e ca poti fi cunoscut pentru SIMPLUL FAPT CA ESTI AICI. Daca functioneaza pentru ei, de ce n-ar functiona si pentru noi ? P.S. In al doilea rand, nu mi-ar placea sa particip la managementul unui hf online de la mine din dormitor... (pardon, trading room) . Pentru multi dintre noi, activitatile online trebuie sa aiba un sfarsit, ca sa putem spune ca s-a meritat. Cata vreme nu schimbi mediul in care te invarti , aerul pe care-l respiri , oamenii pe care-i vezi , drumul catre servici si ce faci seara la 10, activitatile forex nu sunt altceva decat un zero barat...

Am vorbit si cu Stefan, si cu Dudu tux, se pare ca a sosit timpul pentru urmatorul pas... Demult, cand Stefan a refacut Vamistul, trecand de la vechea platforma a forumului, care avusese de suferit in urma atacului hackerului (se pierduse chiar si superba "Poveste a celor 2 pipsi" - deh Fata Morgana, am vrut s-o incerc cu mecanicii de la garaj) , am luat si eu decizia sa-mi scriu blogul in engleza ca sa marim traficul si popularitatea site-ului. A trecut timpul si eforturile au dat roade, Vamistul a devenit cea mai mare comunitate forex din tara. Dar, din pacate, toate se opresc aici. Nu cred ca mai are sens sa mergem NUMAI in directia asta. Ce avantaje avem NOI, comunitatea Vamist, din asta? Ce avantaje au cei de pe Forex-TSD sau StrategyBuilderFX ? Din punct de vedere mediatic Vamistul e din ce in ce mai izolat: ultimul articol din Wall Street, stupid, scris probabil de o incepatoare, nici macar nu aminteste de Vamist, dupa cum a comentat si Vlad. Cat despre prezenta in restul mediei de afaceri, complet nula. Se pare ca desi investim timp si efort in ... nu neaparat forex , ci piete si automatizari, acestea nu sunt recompensate sub forma unei RECUNOASTERI de catre media de afaceri. Ei bine, a sosit momentul sa luam problema in mainile noastre. Degeaba ASTEPTAM sa primim ceva de la gigantii media. Ca sa-l parafrazez pe Nicolae Iorga, COMUNITATILE NU SE DISCUTA, SE AFIRMA! Se pare ca Vamistul nu sare suficient in ochi, in ciuda eforturilor lui Stefan de a-l lista in cat mai multe directoare si siteuri. Ei bine... trebuie sa-l facem sa sara in ochi. Problema e una de continut. Vamist are un continut urias, dar tot ce e valoros in el are o importanta din ce in ce mai mica. IN OCHII NOSTRI! Un comentariu cu ce-au facut SIF-urile ieri apare in toata presa de afaceri, de la MoneyChannel la Capital si Saptamana Financiara. Dar lucruri practice, gen "cum genereaza un semnal bazat pe intersectia mediilor mobile" sau "cum se interpreteaza grila Gann", "cum se utilizeaza Fibonacci", "cum sunt recunoscute tranzactiile ca facand parte din grupuri diferite si cum li se asigneaza un comportament de piata diferit", tot ceea ce tine de aspectul practic, nu aspectul de raportare, utilizat de media de afaceri, nu mai valoreaza nimic! Poate ca ce stiu eu despre MQL4 nu valoreaza nimic, ceea ce stie Marco despre valurile Elliott nu e nimic, comentariile lui Tradelover nu inseamna nimic... pe langa ce a facut nu stiu care superbroker in ultimii 5 ani, si ce ne spune el ca s-a intamplat ieri. LUCRURILE ASTEA NU SUNT NIMIC! EI, presa financiara, au convins pe toata lumea ca EI sunt detinatorul "adevarului", ca forexul nu exista si ca noi om fi niste tampiti, poate de-aia nu aparem pe nicaieri. Trebuie sa ne ridicam in picioare si sa ne sustinem pozitia pe piata media... altfel, ei vor fi cei cunoscuti, cei platiti, cei carora le apar numele in ziar, iar noi vom ramane niste... username. Pentru ca toate astea sa aiba o importanta, trebuie SA LE FACEM IMPORTANTE! Trebuie sa schimbam continutul mediatic al Vamistului... Trebuie sa incercam, la inceput, o revista forex. Poate una pe care s-o citim numai noi, la inceput, pana nu ne e rusine cu ce producem. Cati oameni sunt ca noi? Cati oameni stiu despre piete cat stim noi? Cati programatori stiu ca poti sa cumperi si sa vinzi cu o linie de program, aparuta in revista forex intr-un code snippet ca intr-o revista de C++? Cati romani ar spune "ASTA E MARFA!" ? O revista de forex ar fi o prima incercare... cate unul dintre noi sa scrie un articol sau mai multe pe ce stie mai bine... Cititi, stergeti, modificati, pana spuneti "acum e cool". Apoi puneti-va pozele langa articol. Arata diferit, nu ? Incepe sa semene cu CurrencyTrader... Facem asta de mai multe ori, o diseminam prin e-mailuri cu linkuri de download, pana fiecare dintre noi va fi cunoscut pentru ceva... atunci vom fi "romanii din forex". Deodata, continutul, aparent fara valoare , repetat pe nenumarate posturi de forum va avea o valoare pentru fiecare dintre noi... se va adauga personalitatii noastre. Cum ar fi sa discutam sisteme de trading, programare in MetaTrader, impactul stirilor sau al pietei in general asupra unor experti pe care-i urmarim, toate astea prezentate in revista sau in format video, (cu un brush rosu trasat in jurul Account Equity ) ? Depinde de voi ce se alege din punctul asta mai departe: ori forumisti invizibili, ori editorii celei mai noi reviste de afaceri: "Romanian Forex Magazine" , "Forex Media" sau "Trader.FX()"... puteti s-o numiti cum vreti.... Atunci cand forexul nu va mai fi un hobby, ci va Personalitatea noastra, asa cum suntem vazuti de lume, cand ridicam capul mandri de ceea ce am devenit, oameni cu o identitate speciala, atat personala cat si de grup, atunci Vamistul isi va fi atins scopul.

Hi David, Sorry for the delay caused by technical problems, first you have to make sure both BcLib and BcArb are in the experts\include folder. Otherwise, BcLib may be compiled, but BcArb won't find it. The message "Start function..." and the procedure removal is natural, whatever if you compile an include or an ea or script, functions are removed selectively, only the ones not called at all by what you compile. Regards, Bogdan

Asa e mah nu mai merge deloc.

Hi, Well it's simple, and I explained that in the Intercross article, the volumes should be equivalent, not the lotsizes to be equal. For example, 1 lot EURUSD is 100K EUR, and 1 lot of GBPUSD is 100K GBP. They become equal by the EURGBP rate , that is, for example now that I write these lines, ~0.7928. So 100K EUR values about 0.7928K GBP, which reflects in the lotsize calculus. Regards, Bogdan

Sorry for answering so late, had some health issues... Ok there is quite some time since I looked on this arbitrage. First make sure that BcLib (BcArb should be there also, but not needed) in the experts\include folder. First compile bclib, then bcarb. Make sure the scripts (SwapButterfly, SwapFinder) are in experts\scripts folder. Compile and run each of them. Try some time when all pairs are active. Regards, Bogdan P.S. Don't forget the initial algorithm was Kreslik's... I just modified it and posted it clearly so that everyone could understand. On the broker stuff, remember, this is a risky arb. The smaller the results, the bigger time to breakthru; time in which the Fed or anyone else involved in your trades with its interest rate can alter everything, or the broker might notice and correct... P.S.no 2. It jumped into my eyes the 0.1 Sell Aud/Jpy... Should be about 0.16 to hold the hedge... Hi, Bogdan. Yes, you have seen right. It's about 1,6. Now, I've found a bigger triangular ring swap. It's Sell 0,1 EUR/JPY - Buy 0,2 NZD/JPY - Buy 0,1 EUR/NZD. It's possible to gain up to 1 euro in one day trading with some brokers that give good swaps condition to retails. I'm searching on internet for best brokers swap, it's very difficult. In this case the real arbitrage is found the best brokers in swaps, spread and regulation. P.S.: I've not been able to run bclibs and swap finder following your indication. Maybe i don't understood. See you soon. Chrono Hi, place BcLib and BcArb in experts\include. first compile BcLib, then BcArb. place the swapfinder and swapbutterfly in experts\scripts then compile. Regards, Bogdan

I'm answering to Pion's request to release the code for BcWin and BcTools. These were both written in Dev-Pascal. I am attaching the pas and project files , as a test script for them too.

Sorry for answering so late, had some health issues... Ok there is quite some time since I looked on this arbitrage. First make sure that BcLib (BcArb should be there also, but not needed) in the experts\include folder. First compile bclib, then bcarb. Make sure the scripts (SwapButterfly, SwapFinder) are in experts\scripts folder. Compile and run each of them. Try some time when all pairs are active. Regards, Bogdan P.S. Don't forget the initial algorithm was Kreslik's... I just modified it and posted it clearly so that everyone could understand. On the broker stuff, remember, this is a risky arb. The smaller the results, the bigger time to breakthru; time in which the Fed or anyone else involved in your trades with its interest rate can alter everything, or the broker might notice and correct... P.S.no 2. It jumped into my eyes the 0.1 Sell Aud/Jpy... Should be about 0.16 to hold the hedge...

After weeks of making a long, costly and complicated SWIFT transfer , I finally managed to open account with WHC. (Tell you guys that do SWIFT, always wire to the final beneficiary bank, disregarding any info on the corresponding bank). With 10% of equity consumed during this madness , also caused by the fact WHC wasn't quite accepting EUR deposits, as stated on their IB's website, I was almost pissed off. However, their real datafeed is beyond my previous expectations : lots of forex (including the dangerous, but easy tradable USDHKD - easy to forecast due to Hong Kong's monetary council regime), stocks (common and some preferred), all kinds of commodities , indexes and currency futures, with various expiries and some quoted on different exchanges. I didn't have the patience to count all the symbols , so I decided to make a movie about it and uploaded on YouTube: Presently I'm a bit tired due to various collaborations, hope to start trading as soon as I digest the new trading opportunities given by the new stuff!

We are almost going to open an account with WHC, as I know now WHC accepts wire transfers. We also study Finotec options, but platform is a bit buggy and we're waiting for some answers. Regards, Bogdan

Well, finally managed to pull money out of FXINDIA. Was it a good broker? Well, they payed. (Perhaps because we didn't make noise on their forums, who knows). Did they do everything against us? Well, after the tricky swap charge they saw we are more stubborn than anticipated and decided to get rid of us and almost banned logins. Thanks to Matt we managed an awesome rate of about 170%... But again, trading on the edge, with more than MT4. The natural exploit of difference in volatility between forex and futures has been one of the keys used in this situation. But now it's over. Have to look at other brokers... Does anybody know RELIABLE brokers offering same datafeed as WHC ?

Well, I got the feed I wanted, I made money, and I was swap charged...

No. As you have seen in later posts, the arb has been shut down. Even the type B may work for a while until they catch the trick.... Think it's impossible on this level. Maybe Hotspot, Currenex, or the best...EBS

Ok Jeff, this is the explanation about the files: bclib_update_oct_02_2007.zip This is my MetaTrader functions library. This is an older version, the current one, which is perhaps one of the less buggy, is in my last post. It comprises BCLIB.MQ4 and BCARB.MQ4, as functions libraries, that must reside in experts\include folder; BCWIN.EXE and BCTOOLS.DLL are to give you the option of controlling EAs with an external application (they are for implementing menus). I will come back with explanations on these if I'm requested to do so, but they are usually not needed. In order to work, these must reside in the experts\libraries folder. futures_script_repaired_021007.mq4 The futures script was a babe in its glory times! It is looking at forex rates and their futures counterparts. Supposing the broker won't charge you swap (you can get rid of that setting) it will calculate how much money you'd make keeping a spot and a futures trade at the same time. It can also trade the best combination found. DiscountedFuturesLIB.mq4 and DiscountedBasisLIB.mq4 These are applications of the Discounted Futures and Discounted Basis indicators, using LIBID/LIBOR rates as input. Slightly different than the non-LIB versions of these indicators, and a bit worst. Discounted Futures is discounting a future (like 6E, 6A and so on). It is an overlay indicator. For example, drag it over EURUSD or USDJPY. Of course, it will work for the pairs that have a futures. Discounted Basis displays as a separate window and is Discounted Futures - Spot. Read more about the Discounted indicators and the Futures script here . SwapFinder_script_repaired_021007.mq4 and SwapButterfly_script_repaired_021007.mq4 The SwapFinder is a swap arbitrage script. It will recognize the currency pairs and the currencies, then it will attempt to find out perfectly hedged currency rings that generate interest, while their forex rate movement is to stand still. SwapButterfly has the same idea like the SwapFinder, but different applied. Both techniques are discussed here . Regards, Bogdan

This BcLib issue adds new trading functions: - ReliableModifyTakeProfit() and ReliableModifyStopLoss(), which attempt to place and repair the TP and SL levels , by moving them up or down (take profit, for buys and sells) , down or up (stop loss, for buys and sells) in order to avoid ERR_INVALID_STOPS, which is the only error handled by these functions. The fast functions ModifyTakeProfit() and ModifyStopLoss(), older, simply attempt to do this once without handling any error. - ReliableOrderPlace(), which is an upgrade of the ReliableOrderSend() . The difference is that SL and TP are integers , given by the user in pips. ReliableOrderPlace() calls ReliableOrderSend() to manage placing of the order without SL and TP, then it uses ReliableModifyTakeProfit() and ReliableModifyStopLoss to set TP and SL levels. This is why, if any errors appear in the log, they are reported by ReliableOrderSend(), not by ReliableOrderPlace().

Updates list: - Updated code for ReliableOrderSend(), ReliableOrderClose() as I wrote earlier in this blog; - Modified fast Order_**** functions to lookup history , after checking current trades ; added function Order_Pool to retrieve the place of an order: MODE_TRADES, MODE_HISTORY, or -1; - Replaced calls to ObjectsRedraw() with calls to WindowRedraw(). The RealTickValue() function remains in place as a proxy for getting tick values, although MetaQuotes corrected the MODE_TICKVALUE bug since build 211. P.S. We are still working on the FXIndia issue...

Yes, they did so. Regards, Bogdan

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/552/shutdownsg8.jpg Damn! With that big -978.76 bucks swap....I had to close! This will not remain unpunished!

The indicator is pretty easy, uses the same formulas when we talked in that night... You can find it , I think on one of the last updates to BcLib, otherwise on the Currency Futures entry.

Naughty boy... I thought that someone would spot this... Entry at -2.5 and wait for a 2.5 , for tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, then close, enter at 2.5 and wait again...but you may have days when USDJPY won't move enough at that particular moment in time when the forex market is sound asleep. Plus that, if no luck, in a few days, the swaps, if using a swap-bearing account, will consume all the profit... Later edit: swap is a double edged sword - if we hedge reversed, we may get swaps and profit for a very little time... Bogdan

Since I'm using this strategy, I observe that sometimes the account stays a lot constant, then jumps suddenly. Finally found the catch. Here is also my account status for november 8: http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/9493/marketineficienciesej2.jpg As you can see in the first red circle, before Globex shut down hour on Nov 7 , the discounted USDJPY futures was under USDJPY value. During this time, USDJPY moved down. Once the Globex started up, the discounted futures had to come towards USDJPY from its upward position, and it was stopped by the market's evaluation nearby USDJPY but in the upper side, since it came from up. It started to fluctuate around this value, this is why we see the DiscountedBasis average jump from negative to positive. This second picture is to answer Juan's request to see how much basis modified since last month: http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/1460/basisreductionya4.jpg As you can see, the basis reduced from about 98 pips on Nov 9 to almost 43 pips now. Isn't that cool ? I appeal again at my readers to help me with the parameters of T-notes, as I want to check about arbitrage windows forming between the three T-note classes (2 years, 5 years, 10 years).

Would you explain this. Andi It's because of the fact that the market and the MA are two faces of the same coin. When you sell Crude light at 90.50 and you buy West Texas Intermediate at 89.95 you know the arb exists. It's embedded in the value of the portfolio. When the Crude light goes down and WTI goes up, both trades are winning. In our case, when the market goes down it also generates the MA loss, because it is made of dozens of market reverses (buys). I entitled the hedge as sci-fi because it required two impossible conditions: 1. no other branch (no sell branch, for our example, otherwise this would cancel the internal "value" made up by the MA), in which case you would have been unhedged all the way. 2. no futile hedge, meaning that, even with a sell branch - insuring hedge all the time - the result shouldn't have been futile (which is impossible). Practically, sci-fi means that at the moment you were wanting to "sell" the market to realize the profit was already there, realizable just by closing the Buys MA at the "market" price, which is impossible, all profit being consumed by the Sells MA. This is the thing I didn't realize from the beginning. I thought that once you close the Sells MA you are left with a Buy MA that will increase in value as the price is decreasing (because price comes from the market, not from the MA), even more, while "adjusting" the MA with new trades. To make a comparison with the oil arb, it's just like you'd expect the WTI to go up and meet CL, while the WTI would be only a humbug in your mind, its real datafeed being CL, therefore taking the rope as a snake. Perhaps I mixed up this a little, it's a bit phylosophical, like half of the Finance. If an entire model is based on an unrealistic valuation, it all goes down the drain. Bogdan