Barbones

Zvonul zice ca FED va pune 500 de miliarde la bataie in urmatoarele 6 luni si ca asta va anunta azi la FOMC la 8 si 15 minute in seara asta ora Romaniei. Primul QE a fost de 1700 de miliarde. Daca vor fi 500 de miliarde Euro/USD este deja "PRICED IN". Daca vor fi mai multi bani un spike Up este probabil dar in acest caz celelate banci centrale vor incerca in perioada imediat urmatoare sa contracareze venind si ele cu stimuli, cu bani adica, astfel incat sa echilibreze balanta. Dar pana diseara avem ADP Non-Farm Employment Change la 14.15 ora Ro. Elicopterele sunt in aer si azi incepe atacul!!!

Chiar daca QE2 nu va fi mare ca volum in bani si chiar daca si restul bancilor vor veni si ele cu suplimente, Euro este previzionat in ambele directii. Poate dupa saptamana asta aflam mai multe. Deja m-am plictisit de QE2.

Ultimele date pe SUA cresc sansele ca FED sa nu fie agresiv cu QE2. In continuare sansele de Sell Euro cresc.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s push to jump-start the U.S. economy this week may weaken the dollar, forcing at least one other central bank to add its own stimulus to offset a rising exchange rate. Bernanke is set to embark on an unprecedented second round of unconventional monetary easing, one result of which may be a cheaper dollar that boosts U.S. growth by helping American exports. A related consequence: stronger currencies abroad, threatening European and Japanese expansion. With the major central banks all announcing decisions within 33 hours this week, fallout from the Fed could cause Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to do more for his economy and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to leave the door open to more aid. Even as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet holds the line against inflation, he may eventually change course if the euro surges, while emerging markets are already acting to restrain currencies. “An easing in U.S. monetary policy creates pressure on the rest of the world to respond,” said Dominic Wilson, New York- based senior global economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. “The subsequent weakening in the dollar tends to tighten financial conditions outside the U.S.” Policy Decisions On Nov. 3 at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington, the Fed will release its policy decision. About 18 hours later, at noon in London (8 a.m. in New York and Washington), the U.K. central bank will announce its move. The ECB will go public with its decision 45 minutes later, at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt (8:45 a.m. in New York). The Bank of Japan concludes its talks on Nov. 5 at about noon local time (11 p.m. in New York). from www.bloomberg.com

Euro to reach $1.46 by December, Morgan Stanley says

SUA Advance GDP anualizat - 2 fata de 1.7 si 2.1 forecast Inflation Expectations 2.7 fata de 2.6 Cele de mai sus intaresc sentimentul pietei ca FED nu va arunca cu prea mult in piata si deci QE2 este deja in pretul EURO.

— U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday, dragged lower by cyclical stocks as investors grew more conservative about the Federal Reserve’s attempts to stimulate the economy. Adica ce am zis mai devreme, Buy Dolari pe Majore. Europe and other US trading partners are trying to shame the FOMC into not announcing another large, market-distorting QE at there meeting a week from today. Today's report that US New Home Sales rebounded 6.6% is seen by most as not likely to keep the Fed from announcing some moderate level of QE2 next week. Durable Goods also rebounded, but were distorted by Aircraft orders. The chatter on the Street these days is that the Fed will take a much more cautious QE approach this time around, leaving itself maximum leeway to adjust the policy as new information is acquired. Reuters

U.S. stock futures slip. Wall Street Journal report raises questions about size of expected stimulus plan from the Fed QE2 in cantitate mica - Sell Euro

Following the meeting of G20 finance ministers, the risk of war exchange you think spread? Group determination was indeed to avoid a war exchange. The Ministers discussed this issue specifically.. We are committed not to resort to policies of competitive devaluations. But we also agreed we would set broader objectives in terms of our current account balances, without stigmatizing a particular country. All surplus countries such as deficit countries on commercial terms, must be alert to changes in their trade. While we have not established numerical goals desired by the U.S. administration. Because the situation of the G20 countries is different. In particular, countries with high commodity exporters have argued that the trade balance was different in nature. In the end, we agreed to a "path of peace," but we do not yet have tools at our disposal. This presages the work of the French presidency of the G20 next year. These works represent one of the objectives of President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is working to develop a new international monetary system. Christine Lagarde is the current Minister of Economic Affairs, Industry and Employment of France Citat din http://www.lesechos.fr/

Brazilia va interveni in piata nelimitat pentru sustinerea propriei monede, Japonia va face acelasi lucru, toate astea dupa G20. Razboiul continua. FED in continuare MIX. Q3 si Q4 pe Germania mult mai slab. IMF zice ca Euro e deja prea sus. Goldman Sachs "vede" 4 mii de miliarde in Fed QE2 Toate astea duc Euro in Range. 3 Noiembrie next.

Pentru ca maine e G7 azi s-au marcat ceva profituri chiar daca SP si DOW au facut noi maxime pe anunturile pentru trimestrul 3 pe SUA. In contiuare atmosfera la FED este incurcata, se spune de 100 de miliarde pe luna pentru QE2 care este mai putin decat 1000 de miliarde brusc. De luni vom sti mai multe si de pe 3 Noiembire si mai multe. Maine e zi buna de plecat la munte. De dimineata.

E logic ca un dolar slab a ajutat Multinationalele dar nu ar fi cazul sa terminam saptamana asta cu nebunia asta, macar la G20? De ceva vreme balanta de la Fed atarna catre buy dolari.

Azi, 18 Oct, ora 3 pm ora Ro. City anunta ca e de bine si tot asa mai departe pe toata sesiunea NY. Euro si Aud au schimbat sentimentul chiar atunci. La 3. De la sell ul de pe China pana la 3 totul arata asa cum trebuia sa fie dar.... NY a mers pe fundament. Pana vineri, prima zi G20, Scalp the News si sa nu uitam de QE2!!! care oricum ar fi, ESTE!!!

Tot vineri (acum o saptamana)s-a petrecut un alt eveniment, de data aceasta având conotaţii istorice. Aflat în vizită în Turcia, premierul chinez Wen Jiabao a anunţat, împreună cu premierul turc Recep Erdogan, eliminarea dolarului din contractele bilaterale dintre cele două ţări. Aşa se face că, începând cu data amintitei vizite, valutele utilizate în schimburile dintre cele două ţări vor fi lira şi yuan-ul. Este primul contract de acest tip care practic aruncă în derizoriu moneda americană. Schimburile comerciale dintre China şi Turcia au în prezent o valoare de peste 15 miliarde de dolari, iar cei doi oficiali îşi propun triplarea acestora în următorii cinci ani. Continuarea pe http://trenduri.blogspot.com/2010/10/noua-conflagratie.html

Getihner a amanat "sentinta" catre China ca vezi doamne doar ea manipuleaza moneda, Ben a dezamagit ca n-a zis cu cat si cum va arunca dolari din elicopter, iar ECB striga ca Volatilitatea nu buna. Toate astea adunate si mai ales faptul ca a fost Vineri a dus la marcarea profiturilor. Mi-am c am impleticit ordinele la 1.4120 dar in final am scos-o la capat. Logic ca si vedeam 1.4250 cum imi marcheaza TP ul dar ... a fost Vineri Cum ceea ce nu urca pana la urma coboara, Euro are mari sanse saptamana viitoare sa-si corecteze putin trendul, nu mult sau nu mult timp dar ziua ce tocmai s-a incheiat a facut Out Side Bar pentru Sell. Pana pe 3 Noiembrie, Pisica poate sa sara in toate directiile. Dupa 3, numai Ben stie. Pana atunci Sezonul anunturilor Q3 incepe chiar de luni asa ca Scalp the News e la putere. Cu siguranta vom mai vedea 1.4050 pe chart asa cum si 1.3750 este in carti.

Nu ai dat buy azi caci ai fost plecat ? Nu ai dat sell azi la 1.4120 ? Maine 15 Oct la 3.15 ora Ro Ben mai are ceva de zis.... Oare va misca piata? Pana atunci poti sa vinzi Apple ca e pretul bun.

The extreme price fluctuations of May 6 Flash Crash trading chaos greatly affected everyone from individual investors to corporations that need to raise capital. In response, the CFTC-SEC Joint Advisory Committee on Emerging Regulatory Issues issued a detailed report to the SEC and CFTC describing what happened on May 6 and making recommendations on reforms for preventing flash crash-like market disruptions. Based on the investigations described in the report, the NYSE experienced record quotation traffic and significant delays in the dissemination of data on May 6. For more than five minutes starting at 2:44 p.m. in New York, its quotes in 1,665 securities were delayed by 5 to 20 seconds or more. Quotations in the same securities disseminated through its private feeds had an average delay of .008 second. As the result, 20-minute rout erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The report stated that deliberate attempts by traders to overwhelm exchanges with orders played no role in the May 6 crash. The majority of activity that occurred on May 6 wasn’t quote stuffing, it was quote withdrawals. A report further stated that the plunge was triggered by the sale of futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that set off a chain of selling that bled into stocks and exchange-traded funds. While the study said selling was worsened by automated firms trading with one another, the report placed no emphasis on the practice that has come to be known as quote stuffing, in which investors allegedly seek an advantage by delaying data feeds. According to the report, no evidence was found that delays led to price declines since most high-frequency firms — the providers of the bulk of liquidity in the market — use private data feeds from exchanges instead of publicly available information. Regulators said the delays may have exacerbated concern about the accuracy of prices, encouraging liquidity providers to reduce their trading. However, the evidence doesn’t support claims that delays triggered or otherwise caused the extreme volatility in security prices observed that day. The report further stated that NYSE was in the process of upgrading data systems on May 6. Less convincing are allegations about people intentionally trying to gum up the works without any evidence. Some of the recommendations made in the report include the possibility of imposing price and volume limits for brokered trades. Require executing brokers to adopt certain trading practices when executing a large order by use of an algorithm, such as price or volume limits. Require executing brokers to have an obligation to monitor and make non-disruptive trading judgments. Also, require executing brokers have similar limitations as exchanges, which is to have the maximum order-size limitations and price banding that prevent entry into the trading engine of an order that exceeds a predefined maximum quantity or a price difference from the current market. Other options the panel considered are increasing visibility into the full order book and potential revisions to market pauses, either for single exchanges, such as stop loss functionality logic, or for cross-market circuit breakers. Some experts say that although, it is not intentional, it is a big accidental problem that no one seems to be learning from or doing anything about. The quoting behavior has stopped and started again on different exchanges since May 6 and also occurred before then. Some critics of U.S. market structure have urged exchanges to adopt a fee for quote cancellations that exceed a certain rate and said bids and offers should remain available to investors for a minimum amount of time. Such initiatives may curtail the ability of firms to submit and cancel orders rapidly. forexlive.com

China spune ca nu vrea sa se lupte cu FED. FED zice ca pot fi si 6 mii de miliarde in noul QE2. Obama tre sa castige, nu? Azi, FOMC zice fara echivoc ca restul lumii nu conteaza. QE2 .CLAR. Ce a zis FED a dus la New 5 month High pe SP. Sa mai zici ca Ben nu are elicoptere. Ce contrazice tot ce e mai sus este sentimentul pietei care spune ca stirea este deja PRICED IN.. Nimic nou sub soare. 3 Noiembrie 2010. Pun pending de acum. In ce directie? Asta in episodul urmator.

Dolarul a pierdut 5% intr-o luna in fata celorlate majore. Pe la banca centrala a Australiei se zice ca AUD e bun la paritate. ECB urla ca 1.40 pentru Euro nu e bun Japonia arunca zeci de miliarde oficial de ceva vreme sa slabeasca JEN ul iar de Franc si CAD nu mai zic nimic. Intalnirea din week end ul asta intre greii lumii la Banca Mondiala nu a adus la finalul ei nimic concret motiv de gap pe startul saptamanii, doar s-a amanat o rezolutie la o urmatoare intalnire, asta ce a transpirat prin presa caci ce s-a discutat cu adevarat nu prea se stie. Toate astea adunate, cu China care isi arata coltii de ceva vreme arata de parca suntem martorii celei mai tensionate perioade de dupa startul recesiunii din 2007. Obama trebuie sa scoata camasa Democratilor foarte repede, altfel inceputul finalului pentru ei incepe in cateva saptamani odata cu primele alegeri si se pare ca singura optiune este QE2 lucru care a slabit deja dolarul dar nu stim daca acum este sau nu in pret zvonul si ar urma ca odata cu aparitia lui oficiala, pe 3 Nov sa inceapa marcarea profiturilor, greu de zis. Prima data QE1 a fost in Dec 2008 si se vede pe charturi ce a produs. Razboiul a inceput, primele negocieri nu sunt date publicitatii. O saptamana grea pentru traderi daca nu vom avea o reactie clara. Toate majorele arata tehnic reversal si totusi.......

Problema mare azi si maine. Daca la NFP vom vedea EURO, AUD, jos la final de zi si SP UP trendul la euro s a terminat,

Miscarea la Euro "ghicita" inca din August nu ne-a luat prin surprindere . Problema azi este cat de long va fi trendul si cat de scurta va fi retragerea. 1.42 este un target gasit de alti pe care-i cred si 1.50 previzionat de alte persoane. Eu zic ca pe 3 Noiembrie vom avea ceva miscare, Cu pending sau nu, tot e ceva de luat. Nu stiu daca la fel de puternic ca in Dec 2008 dar miscarea se aseamana. Cine a cautat in fundament miscarea pe Euro si Aud a fost "long", cine cauta varfuri tehnice, deci a dat sell pe toata urcarea asta, a avut ceva probleme. Si asta este deabea inceputul.

Ceea ce a fost de demonstrat s a demostrat si ieri si azi cand toate cele rele ce se auzeau in piata nu aveau efect impotriva Euro sau AUD. Dolarul a pierdut teren asa cum ma asteptam inca din August. Singura solutie buna este pentru toata lumea pe sfarsitul de an un dolar slab. Am scris asta inca de la primele posturi. Q3 in acest caz va avea mari sanse sa arate bine si sigur ca va impinge dolarul si mai jos. 1.38 pentru Euro este un target realist chiar daca saptamana viitoare se va corecta ceea ce este si de asteptat. Ultima saptamana din luna. Din Octombrie, dupa NFP ma astept sa reluam trendul de buy pe Euro Lira AUD. Cel din urma cu mari sanse sa depaseasca paritatea. Ben se tine de cuvant, Elicoterele in Aer!!!!

Aseara Fed s-a mai apropiat cu un pas de QE2 zicand ca daca inflatia nu e pe cararea buna vor avea ei grija sa nu se piarda prin padure. Reactia a fost deloc surprinzatoare, Euro a creat new high peste sma si ema 200 on daily iar AUD a fost vedeta emisiunii. Aurul nu stiu ce cauta acolo dar ma interesez. Azi, la Minuta BoE "On balance, most members thought that the current level of Bank Rate and stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remained appropriate to balance the risks to the inflation outlook in the medium term. But both key risks were substantial, and these members stood ready to respond in either direction as the balance of risks evolved. For some of those members, the probability that further action would become necessary to stimulate the economy and keep inflation on track to hit the target in the medium term had increased. " .Deci si Lira ar avea drum la munte ca si majorele in general. Sigur ca, acum as vrea totusi sa astept si NFP ul pe Octombrie si mai ales rezultatele Q3 pe SUA ca sa dau buy toata toamna linistit dar si asa, tonul e dat cat de cat si cu picul de ajutor dat de "new homes" in SUA. Tot somajul ramane problema si din Q&A cu Obama de la CNBC de alataieri imi ramane o propozitie in minte care spune mult despre ceea ce gandesc si eu printre milioanele care inca il mai simpatizeaza : "Is this my new reality?" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQ8sxTsllk&feature=related

Acum, ca e mai clar ca ce urmeaza e neclar, QE2 adica Quantitative Easing partea a doua se pare ca are sanse mari sa intre in piata saptamana viitoare . Marti la FOMC aflam cat si cum, cand si mai ales daca. Scopul este prevenirea deflatiei in toata lumea care ar face cresterea economica sa fie cu pasi prea mici iar ca QE2 sa fie eficient ar trebui sa avem si o reactie mai agresiva in piata de comoditati. Deocamadata piata a reactionat deja la zonul aparitiei QE2 iar reactiile pe SP, DOW, Dolar Index sau AUD deja arata directia. Peste toate, In SUA avem in curand alegeri. Obama simte presiunea si logica mea spune ca daca nu va avea un dolar slab pentru semestrele 3 si 4 nu prea mai are sanse sa opreasca caderea Democratilor. Pe zi ce trece mi se pare ca Democratii sunt defapt partidul de "sacrificiu" unde Republicanii fac "prostii" si democratii "spala rusinea". La Euro pe mantli arata ca pinul functioneaza iar pe uicli se pare ca terminam peste 38fib masurat pe cadearea din decembrie, miscare care ma duce cu gandul la 50fib. AUD respecta fundamentul si il astept la dublu top all time high. 1.35 in Octombrie sau targetul anului 1.38? Ben, sa traiesti ca te-ai tinut de cuvant. Astept elicopterul.

La cererea telespectatorilor un link care explica ce inseamna si cum functioneaza lucrul la care ma refer cel mai des pentru ca este singura formula care ne scoate din ce ne-au bagat. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/inflation/qe/video.htm