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Barbones

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Intrări Blog postat de Barbones

  1. Barbones

    Euro, Petrolul si Libienii

    De Barbones,

    After six weeks of protests, the Middle East turmoil has now spread to a major oil producer for the first time, causing the price of Brent crude to hit $105 per barrel—a level not seen since September 2008. That price reaction may exaggerate Libya's importance, but it reflects growing concerns the crisis may spread to other producers

    European shares fell sharply Monday, led by the financial sector, as investors nervously watched the political unrest spreading across the Mideast and North Africa.
    De la WSJ.com

    Cumulat cu inflatia maricica in UE sansele ca ECB sa ridice dobanda sunt mai mari ca acum 1 saptamana. Daca bondurile pe Portigalia isi pastreaza nivelul aproximativ, sentimentul se poate schimba pe zona Euro de la frica de default la specula pe cresterea ratei dobanzii,

    Azi Germania a surprins din nou pozitiv iar restul datelor sunt incurajatoare.
  3. Barbones
    “I think this is the best characterization of what we see in Europe” he told reporters. “I’ve already said in the past that we’re above 2 percent now, with a tendency to increase. I think that the turnaround in inflation developments might not come as soon as we expected in the past. So, clearly, there are risks to the upside
    Inca 2 3 stiri de genul asta si plecam la 1.41 . Tot ce incurca este intalnirea de la inceputul lui Martie a UE.
  4. Barbones
    1. We, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, met today to address ongoing economic and financial challenges and to agree on a way forward to fulfill the mandates given to us by our Leaders.
     
    2. The global recovery is strengthening but is still uneven and downside risks remain. While most advanced economies are seeing modest growth and persisting high unemployment, emerging economies are experiencing more robust growth, some with signs of overheating. We reaffirm our willingness to ensure a consistent and coordinated response to the challenges we face, address the root causes of the crisis and restore global economic growth on a sounder basis.
     
    3. We reaffirm our commitment to coordinated policy action by all G20 members to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Our main priority actions include implementing medium term fiscal consolidation plans differentiated according to national circumstances in line with our Toronto commitment, pursuing appropriate monetary policy, enhancing exchange rate flexibility to better reflect underlying economic fundamentals and structural reforms, to sustain global demand, increase potential growth, foster job creation and contribute to global rebalancing. We discussed progress made since the Seoul Summit and stressed the need to reduce excessive imbalances and maintain current account imbalances at sustainable levels by strengthening multilateral cooperation. We agreed on a set of indicators that will allow us to focus, through an integrated two-step process, on those persistently large imbalances which require policy actions. To complete the work required for the first step, our aim is to agree, by our next meeting in April, on indicative guidelines against which each of these indicators will be assessed, recognizing the need to take into account national or regional circumstances, including large commodity producers. While not targets, these indicative guidelines will be used to assess the following indicators: (i) public debt and fiscal deficits; and private savings rate and private debt (ii) and the external imbalance composed of the trade balance and net investment income flows and transfers, taking due consideration of exchange rate, fiscal, monetary and other policies. We also adopted a timetable for developing the 2011 action plan that will implement our Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth and monitor the commitments already made. As agreed in Seoul, we call on the IMF to provide an assessment as part of the Mutual Assessment Process on progress towards external sustainability and consistency of policies at our October meeting. At that time, we will also review a report on the MAP including an action plan informed by the analysis on the root causes of persistently large imbalances based on the agreed guidelines. We will also review an assessment of progress made in meeting commitments made in Seoul.
     
    4. The international monetary system (IMS) has proven resilient, but vulnerabilities remain, which raise the need to improve it in order to ensure systemic stability, promote orderly adjustment, and avoid disruptive fluctuations in capital flows, disorderly movements in exchange rates – including advanced economies with reserve currencies being vigilant against excess volatility – and persistent misalignement of exchange rates. Today we agreed on a work program aimed at strengthening the functioning of the IMS, including through coherent approaches and measures to deal with potentially destabilizing capital flows, among which macro-prudential measures, mindful of possible drawbacks; and management of global liquidity to strengthen our capacity to prevent and deal with shocks, including issues such as Financial Safety Nets and the role of the SDR. This will also require discussions on exchange rates issues and on the strengthening of IMF surveillance. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting in April a report from the IMF on the strengthening of the IMS and reports by the World Bank and the RDBs building on experiences, on actions to strengthen local capital markets and domestic currency borrowing in emerging and developing economies. In addition, we will benefit from the work of OECD on capital flows, and from the contributions of other relevant international organizations, such as UNCTAD.
     
    5. We discussed concerns about consequences of potential excessive commodity price volatility and asked our deputies to work with international organizations and to report back to us on the underlying drivers and the challenges posed by these trends for both consumers and producers and consider possible actions. Keeping in mind the impact of this volatility on food security, we reiterated the need for long-term investment in the agricultural sector in developing countries. We welcomed the interim report by the IEF, IEA and OPEC to improve the quality, timeliness and reliability of the Joint Organization Data Initiative Oil (JODI oil) and call for further work on strategies to implement these recommendations to be detailed in their final report. Building on the Riyadh symposium held on January 24th, we encourage the IEF to provide concrete strategies to improve the producer-consumer dialogue at its next meeting on February 22nd 2011. Following our Leaders’ request, we call on the IMF and IEF, as well as IEA, GECF and OPEC, to develop by October 2011 concrete recommendations to extend the G20’s work on oil price volatility to gas and coal. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting the report of IEF, IEA, OPEC and IOSCO on price reporting agencies as well as the interim report on food security currently being undertaken by the relevant international organizations, and IOSCO’s recommendations, and the FSB’s consideration of next steps, on regulation and supervision of commodity derivatives markets notably to strengthen transparency and address market abuses.
     
    6. We commit to pursuing the reform of the financial sector. Despite good progress, significant work remains. We will implement fully the Basel III new standards for banks within the agreed timelines while taking due account of the agreed observation periods and review clauses in respect of the liquidity standards. Likewise, we will implement in an internationally consistent and non-discriminatory way the FSB’s recommendations on OTC derivatives and on reducing reliance on credit rating agencies’ ratings. We look forward to the completion by the next Leaders’ Summit of the following ongoing work on systemically important financial institutions as scheduled in the FSB work program for 2011: determination of Global-systemically important financial institutions by FSB and national authorities based on indicative criteria, a comprehensive multi-pronged framework with more intensive supervisory oversight; effective resolution capacity including in a cross-border context; higher loss absorbency measures through a menu of viable alternatives that may include, depending on national circumstances, capital surcharges, contingent capital and bail-in instruments ; and other supplementary requirements as determined by the national authorities including systemic levies. Once the framework initially applicable to G-SIFIs is agreed, we will move expeditiously to cover all SIFIs. We look forward to the 2 reports to be finalized by the BIS, IMF and FSB on macro-prudential frameworks and by the FSB, IMF and World Bank with input of national authorities on financial stability issues in emerging market and developing economies by our October meeting. We look forward to the recommendations that the FSB will prepare by mid-2011 on regulation and oversight of the shadow banking system to efficiently address the risks, notably of arbitrage, associated with shadow banking and its interactions with the regulated banking system. We call on IOSCO to develop by mid-2011 recommendations to promote markets’ integrity and efficiency notably to mitigate the risks created by the latest technological developments. We also call on the FSB to bring forward for our next meeting comprehensive proposals to strengthen its governance, resources and outreach. We urge all jurisdictions to fully implement the FSB principles and standards on sounder compensation practices agreed by the G20 Leaders in Pittsburgh and call on the FSB to undertake ongoing monitoring in this area and look forward to receiving the results of a second thorough FSB peer review midyear to identify remaining gaps. We call on the OECD, the FSB and other relevant international organizations to develop common principles on consumer protection in the field of financial services by our October meeting. We reaffirm our commitment to more effective oversight and supervision, including regular stress testing of banks building on the Basel committee’s principles.
     
    7. We reiterated our call to improve compliance with international standards and strengthen the process of identifying non-cooperative jurisdictions. We look forward to the forthcoming update by FATF of the public list of jurisdictions with strategic deficiencies and to a public list of all jurisdictions evaluated by the FSB ahead of the next G20 Leaders Summit. We welcome the 18 peer reviews issued by the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information and urge all jurisdictions so far identified as not having the elements in place to achieve an effective exchange of information to promptly address the weaknesses. We look forward to the progress report by November 2011, based on the expected completion of around 60 phase 1 reviews, to address in particular the jurisdictions’ quality of cooperation with the Forum, level of compliance and unsolved deficiencies. We call upon more jurisdictions to join the Global Forum and to commit to implementing the standards. We urge all jurisdictions to extend further their networks of Tax Information Exchange Agreements and encourage jurisdictions to consider signing the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters.
     
    8. We discussed the way forward on implementing the Seoul Development Consensus on Shared Growth and its Multi-Year Action Plan. In particular we welcome the launch of the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion last December. We also welcome the appointment of the members of the High Level Panel for Infrastructure Investment, and look forward to their recommendations by September. We discussed the report made by the UN High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing. We welcome the positive outcomes of the Cancun Climate Conference, and in particular the decision to establish a Green Climate Fund, and will pursue discussions on mobilizing sources of financing, including public and private, bilateral and multilateral, as well as innovative sources, consistent with the objective, provisions and principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
     
    9. We reaffirm our commitment to free trade and investment recognizing its central importance for the global recovery. We will refrain from introducing, and oppose protectionist trade actions in all forms and recognize the importance of a prompt conclusion of the Doha negotiations.
     
    10. We stand ready to support Egypt and Tunisia, with responses at the appropriate time well coordinated with the international institutions and the regional development banks to accompany reforms designed to the benefit of the whole population and the stabilization of their economies.
     
    © Copyright ministère de l'Économie, de l'industrie et de l'emploi, 19/02/2011
     
  5. Barbones
    Ori omul e in campanie ori e in campanie la sefia ECB. in final, a dus Euro la 1.37. Si eu care credeam ca Mr. Trichet are telecomanda....
    Daca punem la socoteala si asta atunci cine a fost pe faza a prins iepurasu', cine nu, are timp de luni dar doar dupa o rezolutie G20 ceva si sa vedem si reactia ei in piata.
  6. Barbones

    Semafoare pentru Balonase

    De Barbones,

    G 20 condusa de data asta de Lagarde, frantuzoaica ce taie si spanzura in bugetul Frantei si prima femeie din aproape defunctul G8 ce are pe mana finantele unei tari , are de gand sa caute cativa indicatori sub forma de semafor care sa arate daca cutare miscare in cutare sector e posibil sa produca un balonas. Un balonas asemanator cu cel din anii 2000 unde casutele de lemn se vindeau la pret de casute de caramida si cele de caramida la pret de bloc turn.
     
    Tot la G20 stand la o cafeluta si la un trabucel, finantisti si capi de banci centrale vor dialoga si pe teme de FX ca punct doi in ordinea importantei si alte lucruri domestice ce se discuta in asemenea adunari romantice.
     
    Daca rezultatul discutiilor intre liderii finantelor lumii va fi si dat publicitatii la rubrica " trenduri noi de la G20 pornite" va misca si piata azi ?, nu cred, caci e un pic Vineri, zi de facut bagajele si de facut rezervari prin statiunile lumii pentru o mica pauza binemeritata, zi scurta cu inchideri pe profit sau nu, cu batai prietenesti pe umar intre traderii fericiti sau nu, cu barfe mici spuse pe la vre-un fumuar racoros sau zi de facut curat pe hard , de sters tastatura si soricelul de grasimi si praf pentru traderi mai mici dar cu nazuinte mari.
     
    Daca Euro , moneda singurica, va lua la intrebari SL urile de prin zona 1.36 37 sau cele de pe la 1.34 33 e greu de spus azi caci Trichet, Bernanke % Co. sunt acum la pas strengar pe ulitele Parisului in cautare de mici turnulele Eiffel ca suvenir, deci clar ca nu sunt la butoane azi asa ca ce am presupus la inceputul lunii incepe sa se contureze deja - un range prelungit c-am pana-n Martie, un range care cu cat e mai lung cu atat are sanse ca Break ul lui sa fie mai viguros.
     
    Lira se va catara in stilul ei caracteristic pe varfuri noi noute anul asta presupun caci inflatia de la insulari c-am face victime prin nordul Marii Britanii si Rata Dobanzii pare c-am plapanda la nivelul ei de acum asa ca, o mica crestere e asteptata mai repede decat ar vrea unii si deci si raportul intre alte valute si Lira se va marii simtitor probabil in favoarea ultimei.
     
    Aud ramane favorit in continuare peste paritate zic eu, chiar daca soarta a lovit rau in estul Australiei si minerii nu pot deveni peste noapte mineri-scafandri. Si cum NZD ul e tot in zona iar inflatia Chinei nu mai sperie chiar asa de tare, cred ca pe general butonul Risk On este deja apasat.
     
    Pana acum Februarie are corespondenta in trecut ca patern si atitudine, deci este in limitele noului normal din lumea FX ului, cu Asia pe Buy in continuare pe Euro, nu ca o fi intragostita de UE dar mai diversifica si ei ca orice trezorerie ce se respecta, cu "Ursii" de la inceput de an inca lingandu-si ranile dupa lupta pierduta foarte rapid cu Taurii lumii si cu un fundament inca neclar pentru a da un trend mai clar pe chart.
     
    Am scris mai devreme decat inchiderea Londrei azi caci si eu voi face mai repede ca de obicei ce a facut tata in asemenea tip de market acum ceva timp. A apasat X ul din coltul dreapta sus al ecranului si a calcat acceleratia catre Valea Prahovei fara sa se uite in oglinda retrovizoare mult timp.
     
    Eu am sa ma uit totusi in oglinda doar ca sa-mi sterg paternul rosu de buze de pe obraz caci e misto sa fi pupat asteptand la semafor si sa dai drumul pe geam la balonase multe si colorate.
  7. Barbones

    Lira si Euro

    De Barbones,

    Pana la urma miscarea a fost de 40 de pips pe Rata Dobanzii din care nu am prins nimic . Euro in schimb este iar in corzi lovit de spredul bondurilor pe pe Portugalia in raport cu cele ale Germaniei. ECB se zice ca este acolo si nu se lasa dar China dimineata nu a fost activa. 1,35 ar fi un target imediat daca trece de 1.36 care acum are 20 sma pe daily ca ultim suport. De acolo e mai groasa
  8. Barbones
    The euro's gyrations this year have taken hedge funds by surprise, saddling some of the biggest names in the currency markets with losses.
     
    FX Concepts, an $8 billion currency-focused hedge fund in New York, struggled with losses as Europe's shared currency unexpectedly surged last month. Other hedge funds in the U.S. and Europe, including Bridgewater Associates Inc. and Moore Capital Management, have also stumbled recently, several investors and bankers say.
     
    For months, Wall Street banks have recommended that investors sell the euro while buying higher-yielding currencies, such as those of emerging-market economies. So far, these bets haven't panned out
     
    http://online.wsj.com
     
  9. Barbones
    Chiar daca nu-mi place Lira ca si comportament am sa fac un scalp Joi ca merita. Cresterea ratei la lira este asteptata de mult si chiar daca nu se va intampla Joi tot e de scalpat ceva pentru ca tensiunea e mai mare ca de obicei. Deci, Joi la 2 dupa-amiaza, se pot lua 100 de pp in 15 minute cu efort minim si risc minim desigur. De fun.
  10. Barbones
    Normal ca nu se poate trage o concluzie asa repede dar faptul ca dupa atata trend de buy retragerea e chinuita ma duce cu gandul ca asta e zona unde vom sta pana la urmatoarea sedinta europeana din Martie. Azi, au fost multe ocazii de sell, dar nu a mers. Acum cred ca nu doar o banca centrala este pe buy ci chiar mai multe, asa ca, Sell ul la euro pana in Martie, daca l-ai prins, cred e pur noroc. Probabil ca a cauta sa cumperi on dips e mai profitabil,
    Am iesit din Long Franc si astept un motiv pe fundament sa dau buy la euro.
  12. Barbones
    Mr Trichet zice ca inflatia de 2.4% de acum din UE este de scurta durata si ca nu va ridica rata anul asta chiar daca va fi peste 2% care este target ul maxim al mariei sale, ca medie anuala.
     
    Fondurile au dat Sell dezamagite dar unele banci centrale nu.
     
    Speram ca miscarea de ieri si cu inchiderea de azi sa confirme directia pentru 1 luna de trade dar acum nu sunt atat de convins ca va trece cu prea mult de 38% retracement fata de low ul anului care este la 150 de pp de unde este acum euro.
    Daca azi ajunge acolo, sa dai sell 1 luna incepand de luni parca nu suna bine.
     
    Acum am impresia ca vom sta intr un range mai larg pana in Martie.
  14. Barbones
    O banca mare din SUA a dat ca 1.41 foarte rapid pentru Euro, Eu zic ca maine la conferinta stim daca Mr.Trichet il ingrijoreaza tare inflatia sau nu.
    NFP ul de vineri are previziune pozitiva.
    China si compania inca nu dau semne de oboseala la cumparare.
    Tot vineri UE intra in sedinta dar nu va da nicio rezolutie cu privire la noul fond de "salvare".
    Diferenta intre bonduri intre Germania si periferice scade.
    De maine aflam daca continuam buy ul si Vineri NFP confirma.
    Sper ca miscarea sa tina toata luna pana la rezolutia din Martie a UE ce va zice cu cat vor suplimenta EFSF.
  16. Barbones

    Si Sentimentul unde e?

    De Barbones,

    In curand vom trece de la stadiul de surpriza la cel de acceptare a noii directii.
    Sunt ferm convins ca "Indicatorul-minune" nu este departe de ce se intampla acum pe Euro.
     
    Mai conteaza ca guvernul Irlandei scartaie? Mai conteaza ca Grecia este vazuta azi ca o piata cu mare potential de investitii in 2011? mai conteaza cele 4 zile de Sell Off de la inceputul anului?
     
    Ultimul articol Blog WSJ http://blogs.wsj.com...n-euro-for-now/ spune mult prea tarziu si oricum nu da nicio informatie DE CE creste Euro.
    E usor sa comentezi la 2 saptamani dupa ce a avut loc un start de trend si oricum sa nu spui nimic.
     
    O propozitie mi-a ramas totusi in minte de la ultima conferinta.a lui Mr. Trichet - " Sentimentul Pietei se poate schimba foarte usor!!!"
  18. Barbones
    Vanzarile de ieri, 12 Ianuarie ale bondurilor pe Portugalia au mers "neasteptat" de bine. Uni spun ca si-a bagat ECB coada. Azi, si Spania a vandut in target.
    Daca Intoarcerea de ieri pe buy la Euro si pe crosuri tine saptamana sus sunt sanse sa mergem mai sus toata luna.
     
    Urmeaza azi Trichet si Ben, manca-le-as gura lor.
  20. Barbones
    Portugal - €78B rescue package over three years; Parliament still needs to approve the deal
     
    La 12 1 pe la pranz este conferinta de presa cu anuntarea pachetului de salvare a Portugaliei si imediat vine Mr. Trichet sa ne mai zica cate una doua. Sanse mari sa fie foarte ingrijorat de infaltie si sa ramana "vigilent".
    Acum sunt 2 variante - ori o da tare la deal si EU se duce pe la 1.5150 ori ne corectam la 1.4750 . Varianta cu range la 1.50 nu o exclud dar e cu sanse mai mici. Merg pe corectie totusi 2 3 zile si de pe la 4750 sa fie loc de buy.
  21. Barbones

    QE3 ! (trei)

    De Barbones,

    Hi hi. Tocmai cand ziceam ca m-am saturat de QE2 se pare ca vom citi pe chart Qe3.
    Poate iti aduci aminte ce s-a intamplat cu euro in August la suspiciunea doar ca apare QE2.
    Posturile din urma sunt cred destul de graitoare.
     
    Daca ar fi asa, doar sa avem mai multe detalii, Euro nu mai pica si va urca cu simt de raspundere probabil peste multe highuri si, normal, fara prea multe retracuri ca sa nu ai de unde sa-l iei.
     
    Pun tot contul pe buy ca nu-l mai prind.
    Ho, nu acu', daca o fi.
     
    chiu i fri
  23. Barbones
    Azi-dimineata il asteptam pe Trichet cu degetul pe buy. am dat un buy la un moment dat cand bondurile Spaniei s-au vandut bine si cu el am ramas.
     
    Zic l-as ca vine omu' si facem banu'
     
    Si... a venit.
     
     
    Prima oara a zis ca o tine asa cum e acum.
    Piata se astepta la mai mult de cat e acum
    Euro a picat 50.
     
    A doua oara, a zis ca va continua sa cumpere bonduri
    Piata a zis: - Bine
    Euro a mai picat 50
    .
    A treia oara a spus acelasi lucru ca a doua oara dar mai apasat
    Piata a zis - Daaa???
    Euro s-a intors 140 in sus.
     
    Spre final nu stiu ce a mai zis ca am avut treaba dar la inchidea Londrei era tot acolo sus.
     
    Nu zic ce am facut, spun doar ca am dat numai buy si nu am pierdut.
    Greu de crezut? Cred si eu.
     
    Maine la NFP , daca prima miscare e buy la euro si SP buy, ne corectam pe Decembrie.
    Daca Euro e pe dos ca SP .. nu stiu.
     
    Azi am auzit ca, dupa PIGS pe fagas intra si Franta. Da. Parisul o sa fie salvat de Berlin. Interesant, nu?
  24. Barbones
    Se zice pe la Reuters ca
     
    . "would be ready to support the extension of the European Financial Stability Facility via an extra commitment of money from the IMF", according to a U.S. official who told Reuters news."
     
    Dolarul a fost hacuit in 10 minute. Normal,
     
    Cu alte cuvinte cu asa bani la tescherea problema PIGS paleste rau.
     
    O confirmare a povestii si ne corectam pe Decembrie.
     
    Daca totusi va fi adevarat cred ca yankeii au zis ca e cazu sa puna si ei osu' la treaba atata timp cat ei au pus-o de criza. Si cum la ei criza s a terminat si la noi nu, nu ar fi normal sa se termine si la noi dar cu banii lor?
     
    Ca tot ei castiga pana la urma
  25. Barbones
    Dupa 3 trenduri sanatoase pe Euro anul asta cred ca e normal sa nu ma mai astept la ceva semnfificativ pana pe 10 Ianuarie.
    Cei cu bani multi in piata zic de 1.20 inainte de orice. Ca vor sa influenteze sau chiar cred asta nu stiu dar se zice ca 1,20 este un nivel "corect" in raport cu dolarul.
     
    Pana atunci avem NFP vineri iar sentimentul ramane negativ pentru euro pentru mine de la anuntul QE2 .
     
    Ratele bondurilor Portugaliei, Spaniei si Italiei sunt in deriva continua, spreadul in raport cu rata bondurilor Germaniei se adanceste zilnic.
    Cei ce fac asta constient nu se gandesc ca vor suporta consecintele? C-am artificiala treaba. Prea rapid se intampla si prea la fix a inceput.
     
    Complicat.
     
    Clar este ca suntem la jumatatea drumului din urcarea din low ul anului si nu cred ca avem motiv sa urcam acum.
     
    O tensiune in Korea, bula inflationista in China, PIGS pe UE, final de an, toate duc la un dolar tare.
     
    Joi, Trichet mai are ceva de zis pana pleca la bunici la tara pentru Craciun, Vineri avem zi frumoasa pe NFP cu predictie buna la somaj iar Vinerea Neagra da semne bune tot pe SUA pentru sf. de an.
     
    Daca corelarea de luna trecuta se mentile la NFP dam sell la euro si buy la Apple.
     
    Maine imi pun cauciucurile de iarna.
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFtb3EtjEic
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