Analiza fundamentala

[tavi_star]

Un mic fisier cu descrierea principalilor indicatori economici.

Fisierele excel cu rapoartele economice sunt exceptionale. Sa multumim autorilor pentru munca depusa.

Reports.zip - contine cele mai importane rapoarte economice de la fxengines.com

Rapoarte economice.xls - linkurile spre historicul celor mai importante rapoarte economice.

[tavi_star]

Multumesc pentru voturi. Nu este nevoie de ele!

Consider ca ce am luat fara sa platesc trebuie sa dau inapoi!

[Mangusta]

Stiam eu de ce ti-am dat un vot...Uite acum ai pus ceva de calitate

[tavi_star]

Ceva despre 10 years bods, S&P,

 

As fi vrut prima data sa postez traducerea, dar nu ar fi sunat la fel. Articolul full este la http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php...326#post1474326

 

Where do you see a central market place for GBPUSD? I'll tell you; CME. Quit bickering this point. CME is real central marketplace. Get the data feed and tell me it's not. Now I've made this point before; IBFX volumes are very similar to CME. Granted they might be only tick data but they are very close/ similar to CME volumes. IBFX does not just show ticks from their platform or you would not see a tick update late afternoon for like 1 minute+ at a time. Their ticks come through similar to CME therefore without calling Javier to verify I can deduce they are buying a data feed from a third party provider. This particular third party provider is no doubt a blend of banks. Very commonly EBS is the feed that is purchased to show real market on forex. You can create agreements with your retail broker to not execute anything unless it deals on EBS prices therefore they cannot spike you out. I'm not going to expound on this front anymore. I apologize for the bluntness of my points, but I've heard enough from people assuming and speculating in their bedrooms at home via their computers. [sigh]

 

.............................................

 

Why do we need CBOT and CME and even Globex????

Well we are forex traders and we are not the only fish in the sea. The most liquid instrument in the world is the 10 year note. You say [in whining voice] "Na, eh...Forex is 3 trillion a day largest market in the world."

BS you easily fooled inexperienced newb. I was once in your shoes and believed everything brokers told me.

The 10 year note trades on CBOT exchange and is the most liquid contract in the world. It trades in one day what your GBPUSD trades in one month. No joke. Gold also trades on CBOT and Gold is a great indicator of Forex movement. Gold typically moves in very well defined waves. Look at a 23 tick chart.

[back on track] the ZN determines the USD strength via rate expectation. If rates are expected to rise we see 10 year yeilds rising. Vice versa we see prices for 10 year notes declining. It's an inverse relationship based on a discount to purchase the notes. Don't ask. So we see prices declining which means yeild is increasing and USD in effect is increasing in strength therefore we see GBPUSD going south as USD outstrips GBP sterling. The beauty of forex is we see major volatility. GBPUSD spikes up and down while the ZN trends very smoothly down. We get short on a spike up of GBPUSD while ZN is trending down and we improve our chances of profitable trades.

So why do we need Globex and CME data? The S&P trades on CME and DJ EURO STOXX trades on Globex. These particular equites are correlated to forex as well. If S&P is trending down we commonly see GBPUSD trending the same direction. More so we look to these equities to show Carry trade sentiment. So if we see S&P as well as EURO STOXX moving up we can expect carry trades are doing well today.

........................

inter market correlation exists because money flows like a river from one side of the world to the other. (there is more money in the world than can be traded.)

 

Correlation is the degree to which the results of two bets are related. If you accept this definition and i propose trends are similar 80% of the time between ZN and GBP then i vote correlation exists.

Correlation between equities and carry trades exists right now because JPY as the funding vehicle affects trillions of dollars in positions between the two types of markets.

 

i like to watch the ZN, Gold, ES, and GBP and at the end of the day if there is a trend you'll see all 4 line up. All I'm saying is we need to know where money is flowing. yes inflation releases affect instruments differently than growth releases. Emerging markets' currencies are the main driver of all this as the funding vehicle of commodities and developed country's currencies. China brought interest rates down last week with a few trades. They shook the world and the CFTC threatened to investigate position limits. As a true hedger, China has no obligation regarding position limits. Granted they could upset the market but our CFTC says true hedgers are not subject to position limits.

 

Cand am sa am ceva mai mult timp am sa fac si o traducere in limba romana.

[tavi_star]

Sa legam putin ceea ce am aflat:

 

- stiri live (text): http://news.efxnow.com/en/commentary/index.html

- cine doreste poate sa compare informatia cu graficele perechilor in cauza:

 

- 10:09 US 10 year yields are down 5 bps at 5.08 % , just above the recent lows from the middle of last week at 5.04/05%, We still have yet to close the gap back to 4.99-5.00%.

- 10:11 Oil Falls as End of Nigeria Strike Eases Concern of Disruptions....Oil -1.36 @ 67.79

(cine nu stia de greva petrolistilor din Nigeria - cel mai mare producator de petrol din Africa )

- 12:13 Dow +112 S&P +11

- 14:54 Carry trades moving with DJIA pip for pip

 

Mai sunt procente la DAX, FTSE, NIKKEI, Crude Oil, Gold, Nat Gas, Shanhai, banci care cumpara/vand masiv anumite valute.

Toate aceste informatii ne ofera ceva. Daca tinem cont de ele, probabilitatea de a lua o decizie corecta, dupa ce am evaluat situatia cu analiza tehnica, creste exponetial. In final conduc la tradeuri de lunga durata, super profitabile.

Si ar trebui sa mai scada un pic teama aia: mai creste??? mai scade??? pina cand???

Ar trebui sa avem mereu la indemina un metatrader cu grafice de la OIL, GOLD, NATURAL GAS, ZN (10 year bonds), S&P500, DJI, NASDAQ, FTSE, DAX, NIKKEI, SHANHAI. Intr-un cuvant resursele naturale cele importante ale omenirii si indicii principalelor burse din lume.

 

whcapital.ru - www.metaquotes.net/files/whc/whc4setup.exe

northfinance.com - www.northfinance.com/files/MetaTrader/mt4setup.exe

Avem un metatrader cu o multime de indici bursieri si resurse naturale importane.

 

Ar mai fi o alternativa: un cont demo la SaxoBank. Contul demo desi pe site se spune ca este valabil numai 20 zile, nu mai expira. Au de toate si graficele sunt rezonabile.

[tavi_star]

CUM FOLOSIM INDICII?

 

Daca folosim un cont demo de la whcapital sau northfinance, avem posibilitatea sa vizualizam indicii in metatrader.

Dar la http://finance.yahoo.com avem o optiune mai evoluata: pe un chart putem afisa mai multi indici sau perechi valutare pe acelasi chart, optiune pe care nu o ofera mt4 sau vreu indicator de mt4. Am gasit un singur indicator de mt4 care afiseaza cursurile de la toate perechile in care este implicat USD-ul. Cu ajutorul lui se poate evolua taria dolarului. Atentie, nu pentru corelari intre perechi.

 

Am identificat principalii indici economici, pe care i-am amintit ceva mai sus. Ii prezint impreuna cu codul si bursele corespondente:

 

- 10-YEAR TREASURY BOND (^TNX) - CBOT

- 30-YEAR TREASURY BOND (^TYX) - CBOT

- DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN (^DJI)

- NASDAQ COMPOSITE (^IXIC)

- S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC) - CME

- DJ EURO STOXX 50 (^STOXX50E) - GLOBEX

- FTSE 100 (^FTSE) - LONDON

- DAX (^GDAXI) - XETRA

- CAC 40 (VLI) (^CAC) - PARIS

- SSE Composite Index (000001.SS) - SHANHAI

- NIKKEI 225 (^N225) - OSAKA

- Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD)

- iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Tot Ret Idx ETN (OIL)

- Nicor Inc. (GAS)

 

Avem nevoie de: http://finance.yahoo.com/charts

 

Pe un chart se poate trasa un indice de baza si mai multi indici pentru comparatie. In paranteza, la indicii de mai sus, este simbolul care trebuie introdus la 'GET CHART' - pt. indicele de baza.

 

Pt. a afisa indici suplimentari se introduc la 'ADD COMPARE SYMBOL(S)'.

 

Ca indice de baza sau de comparatie poate fi si o pereche valutara.

Ex: pt cursul GBPJPY introducem GBPJPY=X, unde X poate fi o litera sau o cifra. GBPJPY=1 merge OK.

Mai am posibilitatea sa atasez cativa indicatori comuni si sa caut dupa un anumit indice.

 

Daca observ din timp tendinta principalilor indici de pe piata de stocuri pot determina cu o probabilitate destul de mare si tendinta valutei aferente. Prima data reactioneaza piata de marfuri, aurul, petrolul iar apoi reactioneaza si valutele. Piata de marfuri urmeaza tendinta up/down clar, pe cand valutele fluctueaza, dar in final isi regleaza cursul tot dupa stocuri. Bineinteles ca mai sunt si rapoartele economice periodice care isi pierd din intensitate rapid. Cele mai importante, cum e rata dobazii pot afecta taria unei valute o perioada indelungata.

 

Dupa ce am evaluat tendinta pe termen mediu, pe baza analizei economice, pe baza analizei tehnice pot sa decid exact cand este momentul optim pentru a deschide o pozitie. Cel mai eficient este in directia generala, chiar daca asta presupune sa astept... Dar sansele cresc ....

[tavi_star]

PROPUNERE PENTRU TRADELOVER!

 

S-ar putea modifica indicatorul all_usd_pair.mQ4 sa prezinte optiuni sa afiseze perechi si pentru alte valute?

Sau macar cate unul pentru GBP, EUR, JPY sau CHF.

 

De ce ar fi util?

 

Am observat ca exista momente cand perechile mari nu sunt corelate.

De ex: gbp fluctueaza fata de usd dar fata de alte valute nu misca deloc. Pe de alta parte usd nu fluctueaza fata de perechile in care este implicat gbp. De aici trag concluzia ca fluctuatia fata de usd este temporara, dupa o perioada de una doua zile, perechile se coreleaza sau revin la normal.

Daca observ o asemenea miscare pot profita de ea in ideea ca perechile se vor corela in final.

[tavi_star]

USDRUB!

 

Vorbeam despre rubla ruseasca si resurse naturale extreme.

In atas e cursul USDRUB! No comment!

[tradelover]

PROPUNERE PENTRU TRADELOVER!

 

S-ar putea modifica indicatorul all_usd_pair.mQ4 sa prezinte optiuni sa afiseze perechi si pentru alte valute?

Sau macar cate unul pentru GBP, EUR, JPY sau CHF.

Acum l-am luat, maine nu am job, e sambata mea libera. Daca nu are nevasta planuri măreţe, şoping, chestii, o sa ma uit peste el. Adica azi, ca deja e sambata de 25 de minute. Deocamdata nu stiu despre ce e vorba si imi cam pica ochii, ma duc la nani.

 

Spor!

 

Later edit:

Bun treadul!

[tavi_star]

INTERMARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

TRADING STRATEGIES FOR THE GLOBAL STOCK, BOND, COMMODITY AND CURRENCY MARKETS

by John J. Murphy

 

Descrie foarte bine relatia dintre pricipalii indici prezentatii in postarile anterioare.