Sari la conținut Daily Analysis - 01/08/2008

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Overnight Asia/Europe

USD mixed to open New York

• Overnight action subdued

• Traders waiting on US data this morning


Today’s Economic Reports

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

• 8:30am USD Nonfarm Employment Change

• 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate

• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index

• 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m

• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

• All Day USD Domestic Vehicle Sales


Looking Ahead to Monday

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

• 12:00pm USD FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks

• 2:30pm USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks

Slow start to the week, possible technical trading.



The USD is quiet this morning as traders await big economic news due out shortly; most traders are preparing for a weaker-than-expected NFP number but with a caution towards the possibility that ADP earlier this week was more accurate this time. A larger number showing growth in the jobs market would likely fuel an advance in equities and therefore USD; and with the Greenback hovering flat-to-firmer overnight it wouldn’t take much for the USD to rally into new territory to start the month. Overnight the USD advanced slightly against the GBP and the EURO but retreated mildly against the Yen and Swissy. Loonie is softer putting the USD/CAD at the high end of the recent weekly range suggesting the rate is set to score one more advance before a retreat from the top of the established range. For the most part the USD has been quiet with more of a drifting sort of price action rather than outright buying. Forex traders note that quiet conditions leading to technical trade have pushed the majors to the next level of S/R seen previously in the week but no interest yet to go farther as expected bids/offers are expected to contain the rates. USD/JPY saw a pullback to the 107.30 low print but was bought by short-term accounts traders say; rate is currently back to the mid-range area around the 107.70/80 area with offers said to be ready to cap further gains at the 108.20/30 area. Option defense is said to be seen in all pairs as well keeping the USD range bound as well. Once today’s data is out those barriers will either hold or fall and traders are expecting volatility around the news; although that is normal I don’t see a large move by the USD today. I expect recent resistance to hold to the upside and a rotation lower as longs take profits for the week. Dips in EURO and GBP are likely to hold as the studies are showing some “oversold” readings and typically when that happens on a Friday you have a reversal as winners book gains. In my view, the EURO holding support at the 1.5550 area overnight is a good signal a rotation higher is likely; as is cable holding the 1.9730/40 area. Stops are likely placed under the lows from early longs and if the jobs data is enough to inspire a USD rally then those levels may fall but I really think the market is poised to advance against the Greenback. Aggressive traders can look to take advantage of volatility and attempt to get short the USD on strength into existing resistance.



Analysis Provided by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky.


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Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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