Sari la conținut Daily Analysis - 12/08/2008

Postări Recomandate

Read our daily Forex Trading Analysis


Today’s US Dollar Trading

USD finds stops and advances

USD Sellers attempting to take control

• Volumes lighter on the advance


Overnight Preview

• Advance likely to suffer profit taking

• Longs due to liquidate


Looking Ahead to Tuesday

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

• 8:30am USD Trade Balance

• 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism


Big day for the GBP and the Yen for data.



The USD continued its march higher against the forex trading major pairs today after putting in a fragile bottom overnight. Despite the lack of volume and the key support numbers trading in Asia USD traders continued to find offers outweighing bids for the New York session. Leading the drop lower was EURO dragging GBP behind it; low volume breaks into the overnight low at 1.4908 were bought by large names traders say but that was not enough to prevent a break into stops under the 1.4900 handle for a low print at 1.4880. Cable was forced lower as well finding stops at the 1.9100 handle and 1.9080 area for a low print at 1.9066; Forex traders note that stops were the main driver into the lows in GBP and EURO suggesting that buyers have been active on the dips but offers still are larger near-term. USD/JPY stalled at the 110.40/50 area and was unable to extend overnight gains as the rate continued to lag the other pairs. Cross-spreaders for EURO and GBP continued to underpin the majors against the Yen and traders expect more from the Yen on the downside near-term but admit that order books are getting thin on the decline. USD/CHF also stalled for a high print at 1.0882 overnight and held firm all day near the highs but still was unable to extend gains. In view of the Majors dropping to technical support twice in the past 48 hours the USD appears to be overbought across most studies. A reversal is due and depending on the strength of that reversal it is possible that the USD is trying to develop a new uptrend. In my view, the correction in the long-term USD downtrend is still valid but the correction is due to end and the downtrend is due to resume. Look for US data tomorrow to be USD neutral to weaker. Volumes have been lighter on this rally than last week and large names are buying the dips; it appears the USD rally is about done despite excessive extension of the ranges.





Resistance 3: 1.9300/10

Resistance 2: 1.9280

Resistance 1: 1.9250/60

Latest New York: 1.9093

Support 1: 1.9050/60

Support 2: 1.9020

Support 3: 1.9000



Rate falls back in sympathy with EURO; rate is under pressure from stops. Volumes lighter into the lows. Stops and technical buying seen from some desks, buying seen from semi-official names on Friday and possibly the early higher action today signals a bottom is in. Stopped out of another long but keep looking at the long side. Rate has likely flushed out every long now and shorts will likely take gains soon leaving the rate vulnerable to a sharp rally. Possible buying from semi-official names so watch the news. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.


Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)


4:30am GBP CPI y/y

4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y

4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y

4:30am GBP RPI y/y





Resistance 3: 1.5220

Resistance 2: 1.5150/60

Resistance 1: 1.5080

Latest New York: 1.4900

Support 1: 1.4880

Support 2: 1.4850

Support 3: 1.4800/10



Rate making lows in early trade but then bounces hard, technical selling evident from model accounts traders say suggesting that the rate has finally bottomed. Gap lower has been filled making for a technical buy signal from the lows. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Larger names buying traders say. Likely the rate has flushed all longs. Macro accounts seen selling on the break Friday. Aggressive traders can buy this dip for a return to resistance although we were stopped out of first attempt at a long. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw.


Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:45am EUR French CPI m/m



Forex Analysis Provided by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky.


Also Check our Forex brokers section.



Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Link spre comentariu
Distribuie pe alte site-uri

  • Răspunsuri 0
  • Creat
  • Ultimul Răspuns

Top autori în acest subiect

Zile populare

Top autori în acest subiect

Alătură-te conversației

Poți posta acum și să te înregistrezi mai târziu. Dacă ai un cont, autentifică-te acum pentru a posta cu contul tău.

Răspunde la acest subiect...

×   Alipit ca text avansat.   Alipește ca text simplu

  Doar 75 emoji sunt permise.

×   Linkul tău a fost încorporat automat.   Afișează ca link în schimb

×   Conținutul tău precedent a fost resetat.   Curăță editor

×   Nu poți lipi imagini direct. Încarcă sau inserează imagini din URL.

  • Navigare recentă   0 membri

    • Nici un utilizator înregistrat nu vede această pagină.

  • Creează nouă...

Informații Importante

Am plasat cookie-uri pe dispozitivul tău pentru a îmbunătății navigarea pe acest site. Poți modifica setările cookie, altfel considerăm că ești de acord să continui.