Sari la conținut Daily Analysis - 18/08/2008

Postări Recomandate

Daily Forex Analysis

Overnight Asia/Europe


• Quiet start overnight, USD range-bound

• Volumes lower

• Technical trade dominates due to lack of news


Today’s Economic Reports

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

• 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index


Looking Ahead

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

• 8:30am USD Building Permits

• 8:30am USD PPI m/m

• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m

• 8:30am USD Housing Starts

• 10:00am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks



The USD is mixed to open New York after a relatively quiet start in Asia last night; no real economic news was released leaving the Greenback to trade on mostly technical factors. Now that the panic-buying of USD has largely subsided from late last-week forex traders are holding the majors in a consolidative pattern to start the week. Normally seen on the bid for EURO during the sharp sell-off recently, major Swiss names seen on the offer overnight around the 1.4650 area traders say; high prints in the rate at 1.4769 in Asian trade. US investment houses seen on the bid this time most likely covering recent shorts; traders note cross-trading for non-USD pairs pressuring EURO as well. Normally following EURO lower but firming today, Cable has held last week’s low so far today with a low print at 1.8624 and the toolbox is flashing an exponential buy this morning. Aggressive traders can buy GBP/USD at the 1.8680 area or better during the day. Tuesday will likely be a big day for both EURO and GBP due to the fundamentals being released making Monday a set-up day. With the heavy selling pressure in both pairs recently a short-squeeze is overdue; in my view getting a position on today ahead of potentially negative news for the USD with corresponding positive news from overseas makes for a good probability of higher EURO and GBP pricing mid-week. USD/JPY is lower making lows under the 110.00 handle in Asia overnight; bids seen from US names traders say as well as importers. The rate is currently holding inside range on light volumes suggesting the rate is still seeing a potential top under the 110.50 area. OK to hold shorts through the day. USD/CAD opened lower and dropped to a 1.0542 low print; if holding shorts you would have added to the rate on the break to 1.0560 area. Currently a bit higher on the day around the 1.0600 handle traders note a lot of technical trade keeping the rate two way to start New York. After taking losses this month, the sucker-rally in the USD appears to be finally faltering putting us in a position to recover during the second half of the month. Look for the USD to weaken during the week but still place stops on open positions; volatility has increased so be protected from whipsaw.


forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/gbp-usd"]GBP/USD Daily


Resistance 3: 1.8780

Resistance 2: 1.8750/60

Resistance 1: 1.8720/30

Latest New York: 1.8671

Support 1: 1.8620/30

Support 2: 1.8600

Support 3: 1.8580



After all said and done the rate ends off the lows with a strong buying wick Friday, today’s open shows net bid follow-through. Look for more upside this week. Possibly shorts covering ahead of the news due Tuesday. Rate bouncing off two-year lows and is an excellent buy in my view. Rate has likely flushed out every long now and shorts will likely take gains soon leaving the rate vulnerable to a sharp rally. Possible buying from semi-official names so watch the news. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading. Get ready for the rally.


Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)



forex[/acronym]-technical-analysis/eur-usd"]EUR/USD Daily




Resistance 3: 1.4850

Resistance 2: 1.4820/30

Resistance 1: 1.4770/80

Latest New York: 1.4716

Support 1: 1.4700/10

Support 2: 1.4650/60

Support 3: 1.4620/30



Stops-driven sell-off scores new low last week but rate bounces smartly suggesting at least a small interest in bottoming. Traders report large bids on the drop, lower oil pricing pressures prices all day. Traders report model/macro accounts continue selling the rate. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Larger names buying last week traders say. Likely the rate has flushed all longs. Aggressive traders can buy this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw.


Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:00am EUR German PPI m/m

5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment



Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)


Forex Analysis Provided by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky.


Also Check our Forex brokers section.



Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Link spre comentariu
Distribuie pe alte site-uri

  • Răspunsuri 0
  • Creat
  • Ultimul Răspuns

Top autori în acest subiect

Zile populare

Top autori în acest subiect

Alătură-te conversației

Poți posta acum și să te înregistrezi mai târziu. Dacă ai un cont, autentifică-te acum pentru a posta cu contul tău.

Răspunde la acest subiect...

×   Alipit ca text avansat.   Alipește ca text simplu

  Doar 75 emoji sunt permise.

×   Linkul tău a fost încorporat automat.   Afișează ca link în schimb

×   Conținutul tău precedent a fost resetat.   Curăță editor

×   Nu poți lipi imagini direct. Încarcă sau inserează imagini din URL.

  • Navigare recentă   0 membri

    • Nici un utilizator înregistrat nu vede această pagină.

  • Creează nouă...

Informații Importante

Am plasat cookie-uri pe dispozitivul tău pentru a îmbunătății navigarea pe acest site. Poți modifica setările cookie, altfel considerăm că ești de acord să continui.