Barbones' Blog

atat. Ma intrebam acu cateva zile ce dracu e putred la Casa Alba de toti vand Dolari pe franci, Jen si Aur? Iata ca "cineva" stia de povestea asta si a fugit cu meleoanele acolo unde , in caz de galceava, nu pierde. Se repeta istoria. Pacat ca nu si paternurile intraday.

We would emphasize that the USD reaction against most currencies will probably follow broader market reaction. In particular, as emphasized below, if equity and commodity markets keep sliding globally, the main reaction is likely to cut long positions in equities, EM and commodities. These are mainly funded by short USD, so whether or not the safe-haven status of the USD is impaired over the long term, a downward shock to markets is likely to be USD positive in the near term. This is hardly USD positive once things settle down, but before they settle down, the short term will likely dominate the long-term.

As we discuss below, there may be concern in FX markets that the EUR AAAs are not solid, given the political and economic issues facing the euro zone and how conditions have worsened since the agencies last commented on ratings. Official and private investors instinctively may want to sell USD and buy EUR, but the EUR sovereign issues do not look better because the US’ looks worse, and a global risk-off response would be EUR negative. The key immediate investor worry is that no set of European policymakers is willing to buy sufficient peripheral and quasi-peripheral bonds to narrow spreads, so there is little pushback against the panic on Spain and Italy.

The biggest upside for the EUR would come if the ECB bought Spanish and Italian bonds and that might be enough to generate a global response among risk-correlated currencies, if it was done in sufficient size to convince the investors that contagion was overdone.

Read more: http://www.businessi...8#ixzz1ULIaZkuf

Finance Leaders Urgently Discuss Market Stability

The world's leading economies on Sunday urgently discussed the stability of financial markets after a historic U.S. credit downgrade rattled investors already worried about European debt crises.

Deputies from the Group of 20 advanced and emerging economies talked by telephone Sunday about proposals to minimize market shocks, South Korea's central bank said. And the financial ministers from the Group of Seven economies planned talks before Asian markets open Monday.

The countries are concerned Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating late Friday will shake global markets. In a sign of the fallout, Middle East markets tumbled Sunday on the first day of business after the downgrade.

Kyodo News agency reported Sunday that G-7 deputy finance ministers had agreed on a conference call among the higher-level ministers, who are likely to discuss the U.S. downgrade as well as the eurozone sovereign debt concerns.

Japan's Senior Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi hinted Sunday that Tokyo would intervene again in the currency market if excessive fluctuations continue. It acted Thursday to weaken the yen and protect Japan's recovery from an earthquake and tsunami in March.

"It's not over yet. We will act again if we see speculative moves," Igarashi said on a talk show Sunday on public broadcaster NHK, referring to a possibility for more rounds of yen-selling intervention.

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=14248868

Euro-Area Central Banks to Hold Crisis Call

Euro-region central bank governors will hold emergency talks today intended to stop Spain and Italy from becoming the next victims of the sovereign-debt crisis and limit fallout from the first U.S. credit-rating cut in history.

The central bank chiefs will convene by conference call at 6 p.m. Paris time, said a euro-area central bank official who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. A spokesman for the European Central Bank declined to comment. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven countries may confer by phone as early as tomorrow morning in Tokyo before Asian markets open, Kyodo News reported, citing people familiar with the plan.

The flurry of talks comes as the U.S. downgrade by Standard & Poor’sthreatens to further derail efforts to stop the debt crisis from engulfing the euro-area’s third and fourth-largest economies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-06/euro-region-central-banks-will-conference-tomorrow-on-debt-u-s-downgrade.html

The Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament has approved gold to be used as collateral confirming its status as a high-quality liquid asset

http://www.gold.org/media/press_releases/archive/2011/05/gold_as_a_source_of_collateral_press_release/

Asa cum era previzionat, cei mai muncitori cetateni ai Europei Unite au aratat ca se poate iar Mister Trichet a aratat ca experienta conteaza daca este dublata si de inteligenta.

"Criza" paleste cu fiecare pip ce-l inghite Euro pe buy iar micul speculator isi roade unghiile acum caci tinta lui, paritatea, mai are de asteptat.

Mai avem un (hip) Hop cu GDP ul american, cu somerii de pe ambele continente si inchidem luna pe cel mai frumos patern de reversal din istoria Euro.

Euro - 1.3150 in vizor

Aud - 0.9250 tinta

Lira - 5550 TP atins dar fara mine

On Monday, South Korea and the U.S. are to launch drills aimed at rehearsing how to respond to any potential emergency on the Korean peninsula.

The two Koreas are still technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea to help deter potential aggression by the North.

WSJ.com

Printre altele, dragul de Draghi, Guvernatorul bancii centrale a Italiei, cel cu target la 1.38 de acu' o saptamana si tanar candidat la sefia ECB, a avut timp de un interviu Sambata zicand ca politica monetara a ECB trebuie inasprita, Libia e in razboi civil deja dar Arabia Saudita zice ca suplineste productia de petrol chiar daca e de calitate inferioara si unii dealeri cred ca problema Libiei oricum nu tine mult iar in Iran iar se cauta nod in papura cu programul nuclear.

Daca Vineri s-a marcat profitul pe final de luna, saptamana ce vine va fi ca de obicei sub influentata Rata Dobanzii pe UE si a NFP ul de vineri ce are previziune pozitiva.a 5 a luna consecutiv.si daca nu incepe un mic razboi nuclear intre Korei cred ca Euro e pe val de buy daca adaug si declaratia doamnei Lagarde ce crede ca un Euro puternic este dezirabil.

Daca e sa ma iau dupa "Stress Test" fara sa-l disec, ca Grecia mai ia niste banuti de la Fond ca a fost cuminte, ca Ungaria primeste amenintari dar inca nimic concret, ca economia UK creste si Q3 ul va fi tot in sus, chiar daca increderea insularului paleste, as zice ca trenul Euro a ajuns in penultima statie inainte de capat.

La cei care ne-au furat sportul nostru national adica Oina, S&P a inchis perfect iar Dow, daca inchide luna peste 10325 il putem vedea la toamna la 12500 fara griji.

In saptamana ce vine, Germania marti de dimineata va da tonul saptamanii, BP are si el "stress testul" lui, (greu test) si sa sper ca somajul va ramane la 10 pe Europa pentru ca daca si yankeii si-au mai gasit de munca intre timp joi si vineri teminam sus, cel putin la 1.3150.

Daca e asa, paternul de reversal s-a terminat si putem pleca in vacanta in August fara griji ca sa luam trendul sau trenul din Septembrie pentru vreo 800 de pipsi pe buy. La Euro.

1.2565 - 80 este suportul si 1.33 este targetul imediat.

Daca e invers trecem pe incalzire cu lemne.

Va doresc o saptamana fierbinte.

Azi, vineri, Euro este peste 2750 cu cativa pips si a stat in zona c am 10 ore fara sa atinga nivelul. Ori e greu de atins ori nu e voie.

De Luni parca sell ul nu intra in carti asa cum s a inchis saptamana, dar nici buy ul nu este o optiune.

Greu de prevazut pentru ca miscarea de azi a fost impotriva fundamentului pe termen scurt,

Ce fac nemtii se vede de mult, muncesc si o fac bine spre deosebire de cei din sud care pe romaneste, se joaca in nisip,

Se presupune ca ne uitam la q3 cu mare atentie. Eu ma uit la August foarte detasat. E cald, e frumos afara, nu are rost sa te incumeti, sincer.

Sefu' la strategie de la Bank of America are target 1500 pe o pozitie din 2008 pentru cu sanse de finalizare in Oct 2011.

Daca apare si QE3 in vara 1500 va fi depasit.

pana atunci Ben ne tine in priza cu rata la Dolar la doar 0.25%. CEL PUTIN pana in mijlocul lui 2013.

Pampalau sa fi si sa nu te imprumuti la dobanda asta.

Pentru US singura solutie ramane dolarul slab. A fost pana acum randul Europei sa se "scoata" pe curs, de acum, la loc cu Dolarul acolo unde ii este locul:slab. Vreu crestere, da-mi moneda slaba, nu tot timpul ca mai sunt si altii in Calea Lactee.

Vineri, inca o dovada a interventiei si inca in consens,partea asta mi-a placut cel mai mult. sa vezi S&P si Dow la vale pe prima reactie, sa vezi monedele cu comoditati in coada tot pe vale la primul spike si totusi,,,, Euro ferm la deal fara drept de apel. Normal ca si Lira ca doar e in urma un pic, are de recuperat.

Inca o data felicitari domnului Trichet and Co.

Saptamana ce vine sper ca nemtii sa faca din nou ceea ce stiu ei cel mai bine, sa ne arate cum se munceste si sa ne dea cifrele de care avem nevoie ca sa nu mai avem nevoie "mici" interventii.

Aud mai are putin pana la 9250 targetul previzionat de acum 2 saptamani.

Lira e pe val dar un pic prea intinsa. Daca nu se aseaza bine pe 1.60 o astept la 1.5850 sa mai incercam odata impreuna de data asta sa trecem dealul.

Euro are o tinta frumoasa: 1.35

Pana vineri 1,3450 este foarte probabil daca nu prea aproape.

4250 a picat. 4120 next daca Panda nu-si baga labuta

ps. Si totusi, Grecia ia banii in Septembrie.

August pe medie e "Luna Cadourilor". Majoritatea marcheaza, optiuni ce expira, ce sa mai... macel. Peste toate SNB rupe de azi de la 10 dimineata si bineinteles ca nu misti in fata lor. BOJ e pe val si ea. Cine tranzactioneaza in August e erou.

Deci sa sarbatorim 2 ani de "Criza".

De care, nu stiu, financiara? economica? astrala?, poate Mayasii stiau de care dar pacat ca nu au dat o stire pe Reuters sa fie mai clar.

Pe 8 Septembrie 2008 Lehman si-a dat obstescul sfarsit lucru care ne-a bagat pe toti in rahat... cu apa rece. AIG si restul au scapat dar startul era dat. Ce mai conta ca Congresul a aprobat 700 de meleoane de dolari, plan de salvare, traderii cu experienta stiau ce urmeaza. SELL OFF. of of.of....

Azi, 6 Septembrie 2010, dupa 2 ani de castigat experienta, ne pregatim de trade pentru saptamana ce vine si avem in minte ca:

Trichet ne-a incantat la Conferinta ECB - nu la Bucuresti -. 80% din ce a spus referitor la zona Euro a fost pozitiv,

GDP cu revizie Up si crestere moderata iar Somajul in SUA in scadere.

Din ceea ce vine, Miercuri,

Productia Industriala a Germaniei este previzionata tot in crestere, doar constructia caselor in SUA este negativ previzionata.

Deci, pe 8 Septembire 2010, dimineata avem sanse sa incepem campania de toamna in Buy.

Majorele la deal, dolarul la vale si bula de aur sa se desumfle daca nu sa se sparga.

Spikul de dupa inchiderea Londrei tot de la Trichet vine. Cumpara bonduri pe Spania si Italia cu 2 maini. Bine nu e, dar decat nimic?

So what have we learned today?

1. There is no sovereign debt, not matter how rank, that cannot be presented to the ECB as collateral
2. That the slowdown in US growth in the second quarter of the year looks increasingly likely to have been a result of the Japanese earthquake and terrible tornadoes and floods rather than a cyclical slowdown
3. That buying against the 100-day moving average tends to be a good risk-reward play

We’re now back in the middle of a large triangular consolidation, meaning we’re pretty much in no-man’s land on a medium-term perspective. If you missed the bounce, stay patient. If you are itching to sell, use 1.4440/50 as your backstop. A break back above that level will likely see is work higher within the range, just as it set off a fast decline when we broke below earlier this week.

www.forexlive.com

Pentru ca urmeaza probabil cea mai frumoasa perioada din an, m-am gandit sa profit din plin de ea.

Sper sa fi fost de ajutor cel putin unei persoane din cei care au citit blogul.

Acesta este ultimul post pentru acest an.

Va doresc Sarbatori Fericite si profit maxim.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8gmARGvPlI

La cererea telespectatorilor un link care explica ce inseamna si cum functioneaza lucrul la care ma refer cel mai des pentru ca este singura formula care ne scoate din ce ne-au bagat.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/inflation/qe/video.htm

ministru de finante german este impotriva cresterii fondului de salvare. Pai sa-si mute exporturile in Africa

tp://www.ziare.com...pag2#comentarii

Business > Economie > criza economica mondiala http://ziareromania.ro/img/minus.jpg http://ziareromania.ro/img/plus.jpg

http://thumbs.ziare.com/O-ipoteza-halucinanta--Europa--amenintata-de-forte-malefice-/ab03acf74fa8af0f5/240/0/1/70/O-ipoteza-halucinanta--Europa--amenintata-de-forte-malefice-.jpg Pornind de la amenintarile necrutatoare si greu de explicat asupra economiei unor tari europene, profesorul Edward Tetreau de la HEC (Paris) lanseaza ideea ca dificultatile financiare ale tarilor UE nu sunt de ordin institutional. Ele sunt, in principal, de ordin mafiot.

Concret, o banda de speculatori, bine organizati si actionand in umbra anonimatului, loveste sistematic sistemul financiar al tarilor UE penru a le dobori una cate una. La momentul potrivit, speculatorii stiu ce au de facut ca sa profite, in beneficiul propriu, de haosul creat.

Cine urmeaza dupa Grecia?

Grecia a fost prima vizata. Lovitura era aproape de a reusi si poate reusea daca nu interveneau eforturile energice si conjugate ale Eurogrupului. Banda nu numai ca a ratat prima lovitura, dar a pierdut sume importante pe care le investise, contand pe o reusita de 100%.

Faptul ca unele agentii de rating s-au grabit sa prezica inevitabila catastrofa a Greciei, il face pe autorul articolului din La Tribune sa nu excluda complicitati surprinzatoare. Cum actioneaza grupul si pe ce butoane apasa, asta nu stie nimeni, dar nu pare intamplator ca, dupa esuarea atacului in directia Greciei, alte tari se pomenesc, din senin, in dificulatate.

Ai zice ca numai cand a devenit clar ca Portugalia si Irlanda au sanse sa fie salvate, taifunul si-a schimbat directia si s-a indreptat brusc spre Spania si Italia. Un observator atent nu poate scapa din vedere faptul ca interesele financiare ale unor fonduri de investitii sau organizatii bancare americane, britanice sau chiar europene ar fi avantajate de falimentarea unui stat sau a altuia.

In opinia autorului, cea mai importanta masura pe care ar putea-o lua institutiile europene, inclusiv factorii politici, este sa identifice acesti speculatori ascunsi in umbra. Principiul transparentei nu numai ca le permite, dar ii si obliga. N-ar trebui sa ne acundem dupa deget si sa ne rusinam, punandu-ne o intrebare elementara: cine are interesul sa prabuseasca Europa?

Iar, daca aflam cine, nimic nu opreste UE sa faca publice numele acelor institutii, organizatii sau grupuri, care ar fi gata sa loveasca mortal state intregi, pentru propriile lor intrerese.

Timpul trece, iar Europa bate pasul pe loc

In numele transparentei la care nu numai ca avem dreptul, dar pe care suntem chiar obligati s-o practicam, nimeni n-ar opri institutiile europene sa intocmeasca lista neagra a organizatiilor interesate in falimentarea unor state.

Sa nu uitam ca lupta este pe viata si pe moarte: ori descoperim aceste forte malefice si le oprim in ceasul al doisprezecelea accesul pe pietele europene, ori - in ceasul al treisprezecelea - nimeni nu va putea opri falimentele.

Este ciudata miopia pietelor financiare, care tot judeca tarile din zona euro, uitand de cazul a doua importante puteri extra-europene, care se prezinta cel putin la fel de lamentabil ca Grecia: Marea Britanie, cu deficitul ei de 9% din PIB si Statele Unite, care, dupa unele estimari, risca sa esueze in urmatoarele doua saptamani.

Timpul insa trece implacabil si inca nu este clar ce asteapta responsabilii politici ai Europei, ca sa actioneze energic.

Ce-i de facut?

In primul rand, trebuie intocmita "lista neagra" a institutiilor sau organizatiilor care ar putea specula, profitand de caderea institutiilor financiare din zona euro.

In al doilea rand, este necesara initiativa comuna franco-germana asupra pietelor, de exemplu, prin cumpararea masiva a titlurilor sau obligatiunilor privind datoriile suverane spaniole si italiene. Nu e un act de filantropie: pentru Franta si Germania, esuarea celor doua tari inseamna si esuarea propriilor lor banci.

In al treilea rand trebuie ca, pana la data de 2 august, data dupa care guvernul SUA nu mai este autorizat sa se imprumute, cu riscul de a nu putea onora platile, Europa trebuie sa-si nominalizeze un ministru al Finantelor, avand ca principal obiectiv mutualizarea datoriilor nationale europene.

Avem de ales: ori sta fiecare cu capul in nisip, ca strutul, ignorand pericolul, ori iesim din crizanumai printr-o uniune federala bugetara si fiscala - deci si politica.

Timpul este scurt, dar, daca pentru a decide o actiune militara in Libia au trebuit cateva ore, poate ar fi sufieciente cateva saptamani pentru a corela finantele unor tari ca Germania Franta, Italia, Spania.

Punctul de vedere al profesorului Edward Tetreau este indraznet, dar nu trebuie neglijat faptul ca apartine unei personalitati marcante din lumea universitara franceza si unui bun cunoscator al problemelor UE, cu studii si cercetari efectuate atat in Europa, cat si in SUA. http://ziareromania.ro/img/new/right_corner.jpg

Victor Pitigoi http://thumbs.ziare.com/Victor-Pitigoi/72bc3916f280a767a/60/60/2/70/Victor-Pitigoi.jpgSenior editor Articole: 473 Comentarii:5409Aboneaza-te la articolele mele!

Cel mai mare exportator de Petrol din lume se spune ca a avut deja proteste. Vor creste dobanzile UE si UK?

Ceva, pareri?

Tehnic al doilea val al recesiunii.

August orice ar fi nu mai intru , Dupa NFP ul din Septembrie e de joaca, deocamdata la sala cu mine.

Euro termina pozitiv luna. Cand s-or intoarce si Trichet si Ben din concedii avem treaba nu gluma. Euro dupa o corectie pe Sept are sanse la 1,6 dupa cum vad economia SUA azi, si nu are nicio legatura cu "incapacitatea de plata". In SUA a inceput campania.

Cine stie sa scrie coduri are un musteriu gras pentru mt4. Astept provincia.

• Non-farm payrolls fall 54,000; unemployment rate edges up to 5.6%; private sector adds 67,000 jobs; large upward revisions to prior months. Better than expected
• Japan’s Ozawa: Japan can use strong Yen to make overseas resource investments
• ISM non-manufacturing PMI falls to 51.5 in August from 54.3 in July
• Fed’s Lockhart: No appetite at Fed to monetize debt
• S&P 500 rises 1.3%, closes at 1105
• US 10-year note yield rises to 2.71%, up 8.5 bp from Thursday.

Much less dire than feared US employment figures set off a scramble to cover shorts in “risky” assets and to dump safe-havens. USD/JPY soared from 84.40 to 85.23 in a matter of minutes. The gains did not last particularly long as reports immediately began to circulate that a US hedge fund was a seller of upwards of $750 mln through a US bank in London. Once that talk made the rounds, intraday specs were quick to book profits.

Much weaker than expected ISM service-sector data pulled the rug out from under USD/JPY and sent prices down even lower than where they sat ahead of the employment report. We fell as low as 84.23 before stabilizing. The rest of the session saw tight range trading below the 84.50 level despite a solid rise in US yields.

AUD/USD was a clear winner today, rising on the employment report and holding gains even though the ISM data was very disappointing. A 0.9150 barrier was taken out along the way as we rallied as high as 0.9175 and end the day in the high 0.9160s. A gap was opened up on the intraday charts from 0.9110 through 0.9138. That will give traders something to shoot for Monday morning in Asia.

USD/CAD was the other big winner. Ozawa’s comments on Japan buying resources helped fuel the CAD rally as some dealers expect a Japanese company could jump into the bidding for Potash Corp. We slid to the 1.0390 area from 1.0545 ahead of the numbers.

EUR/USD was a bit of laggard, rising proportionately a bit less early on than some of the other currencies as soaring US rates gave prompted some modest dollar strengthen but, at the end of the day, we managed to add to the post-data highs around 1.2875. We rose close to a 1.2900 barrier, reaching 1.2898 on EBS. The EUR/USD charts have taken on a bullish bias after triggering an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

As risk aversion eased, so did the franc. We end the day at 1.3110 in EUR/CHF from 1.3050. Highs were at 1.3164.

www.forexlive.com

The extreme price fluctuations of May 6 Flash Crash trading chaos greatly affected everyone from individual investors to corporations that need to raise capital.

In response, the CFTC-SEC Joint Advisory Committee on Emerging Regulatory Issues issued a detailed report to the SEC and CFTC describing what happened on May 6 and making recommendations on reforms for preventing flash crash-like market disruptions.

Based on the investigations described in the report, the NYSE experienced record quotation traffic and significant delays in the dissemination of data on May 6. For more than five minutes starting at 2:44 p.m. in New York, its quotes in 1,665 securities were delayed by 5 to 20 seconds or more. Quotations in the same securities disseminated through its private feeds had an average delay of .008 second. As the result, 20-minute rout erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The report stated that deliberate attempts by traders to overwhelm exchanges with orders played no role in the May 6 crash. The majority of activity that occurred on May 6 wasn’t quote stuffing, it was quote withdrawals. A report further stated that the plunge was triggered by the sale of futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that set off a chain of selling that bled into stocks and exchange-traded funds.

While the study said selling was worsened by automated firms trading with one another, the report placed no emphasis on the practice that has come to be known as quote stuffing, in which investors allegedly seek an advantage by delaying data feeds.

According to the report, no evidence was found that delays led to price declines since most high-frequency firms — the providers of the bulk of liquidity in the market — use private data feeds from exchanges instead of publicly available information. Regulators said the delays may have exacerbated concern about the accuracy of prices, encouraging liquidity providers to reduce their trading.

However, the evidence doesn’t support claims that delays triggered or otherwise caused the extreme volatility in security prices observed that day. The report further stated that NYSE was in the process of upgrading data systems on May 6. Less convincing are allegations about people intentionally trying to gum up the works without any evidence.

Some of the recommendations made in the report include the possibility of imposing price and volume limits for brokered trades. Require executing brokers to adopt certain trading practices when executing a large order by use of an algorithm, such as price or volume limits. Require executing brokers to have an obligation to monitor and make non-disruptive trading judgments.

Also, require executing brokers have similar limitations as exchanges, which is to have the maximum order-size limitations and price banding that prevent entry into the trading engine of an order that exceeds a predefined maximum quantity or a price difference from the current market.

Other options the panel considered are increasing visibility into the full order book and potential revisions to market pauses, either for single exchanges, such as stop loss functionality logic, or for cross-market circuit breakers.

Some experts say that although, it is not intentional, it is a big accidental problem that no one seems to be learning from or doing anything about. The quoting behavior has stopped and started again on different exchanges since May 6 and also occurred before then.

Some critics of U.S. market structure have urged exchanges to adopt a fee for quote cancellations that exceed a certain rate and said bids and offers should remain available to investors for a minimum amount of time. Such initiatives may curtail the ability of firms to submit and cancel orders rapidly.

forexlive.com

Am avut in gand ca poate 2750 va fi atins azi dar gandul s-a dus repede cand am vazut ca somajul pe SUA a fost complet anulat in miscare pe Euro si majore in general, ceea ce a dus, desigur si la lipsa Sell Off ului pe indici care azi putea avea loc cu sanse extrem de mari.

Cum maine, joi adica, avem previziuni bune pe Euro ma indoiesc ca mai ajungem la 2750 asa repede.

Interventia se spune ca a avut maini de pe ambele continente si chiar la 3 30 ora Ro.

Daca tine 2780 care dealfel este si o zona de 50 fibo, trendul long poate lua un nou start.