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Un nou val al interventiei?

TOKYO (MNI) – Yen-selling interventions conducted by the Group of

Seven industrialized nations is estimated to have totaled Y2 trillion to

Y2.5 trillion, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Sunday.

 

The newspaper said that the European Central Bank, Bank of England

and the Federal Reserve conducted yen-selling interventions in their

markets after the Tokyo market closed on Friday.

 

This is the first concerted G-7 forex action since September 2000,

when the euro came under heavy selling as capital flowed into the U.S.

stock market at the peak of the IT bubble.

 

The newspaper also noted that the bulk of the yen-selling

interventions was done by Japanese authorities.

 

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Friday, “Following

the G-7 agreement, the government and Bank of Japan will implement

intervention in the foreign exchange market from 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).”

 

 

 

 

By Market News International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multumesc pentru masline . Am sa-mi pun limba la cuptor cu ele si sa vezi ce mancarica o sa iasa, ca pe vremea cand mergeam la scoala si mancam in recreatie la birtul din colt, cea mai buna mancare pozibila - Limba cu masline - doar o fisa de 5 Lei de aluminiu - :)

 

 

Acu' mai jos am pus tranzactia de ieri pe GJ pusa pe premisa ca interventia la JEN va incepe imediat pe 2 considerente: prima, altii decat bancile centrale luand act de rezolutia G7 vor dori sa speculeze momentul si al doilea, interventia ar trebui macar sa mentina Jenul la aceleasi cote si deci nu as pierde.

Sansele erau mai mari de 50% sa fiu pe profit.

 

Asa ca, am pus TP langa MA 21 daily dar nu am calculat spredul . TP ul nu a fost atins. Am inchis manual azi dimineata.

 

Total 430 de pp

Asa ceva se intampla odata la 20 de ani, asa ca, mai am de asteptat pana repet figura :D

At some point, we will get the headlines hitting the wires that the BOJ is buying USD/JPY.

 

We may also get headlines that the Fed, the ECB and BOE are buying USD/JPY as well., depending on the time of day. That does not necessarily mean that coordinated intervention is underway.

 

Often central banks will act “as agent” for other central banks, intervening in their local markets and then handing over the net position to, in this case, the BOJ.

 

Coordinated intervention means that each central bank acts in coordinated fashion for there own accounts, showing the market that each central bank has “skin in the game”, giving the action greater credibility.

 

The first hurdle the Japanese will want to overcome is 79.75/80.00. Beyond that is the 81.75 area, the support line broken decisively earlier this week.

 

 

 

 

Forexlive.com

 

 

Traim "vremuri istorice"

Euro, daca trece decisiv de 1.40 are sanse mari sa faca acelasi gen de miscare cu cea din 2007, nu si din aceleasi motive fundamentale. dar ce este evident este totusi ca 1.40 pe istorie chiar este o zona de rezistenta mare.

 

Dar cum traim "vremuri istorice" asa cum zice un preten, Mr. Trichet este in continuare" foarte vigilent" cu privire la inflatie si considera ca luna ce vine Rata la Euro are sanse mari sa creasca in pofida relaxarii minore a presiunii inflationiste date de petrol si materiile prime, asa ca raman Long pe Euro cel putin pana la urmatoarea sedinta a ECB din Aprilie

 

Jen ul , vedeta emisiunii a avut ghinionul sa aiba de cateva luni deja Optiuni de Sell chiar sub minimul istoric ce s-au activat exact in cea mai putin lichida perioada din zi adica acolo unde Londra si NY nu erau in piata. Probabilitatea unei intervenii a bancii centrale pentru slabirea lui este foarte mare in urmatoarele zile, zice Nomura.

 

Ca de obicei, orice eveniment cat de cat iesit din comun este exagerat analizat si daca se si suprapune cu o perioada generala de marcare a profitului atunci totul pare ca un inceput de noua criza. Interesant este cand te trezesti a doua zi si vezi ca defapt totul nu a fost decat un spike nebunesc si ca totusi viata merge inainte mai mult sau mai putin radiat.

 

Caci traim "vremuri istorice".

Nu ca as cunoaste foarte mult economia Noii Zeelande dar saptamana asta cresc sansele pentru o diminuare a ratei dobanzii. Cutremurul este unul din motive si nu numai el iar tehnic se vede pe chart.

Decizia asupra ratei pentru mine este semnalul de Short chiar daca s-ar putea sa pice pana atunci.

Pe vremuri, orice problema ce aparea legata de petrol crestea imediat cererea de Dolari. Azi nu.

 

Problemele din Libia nu sperie, pretul petrolului nu sperie doar anuntul de ieri seara ce spunea ca un portavion SUA se indreapta catre Libia a creat ceva fiori in piata si refugiere pe Dolar, in rest, piata spune ca nu avem de ce sa ne facem griji, deci o eventuala interventie in Libia nu va speria.

 

Maine, sansele ca Mr. Trichet sa creasca dobanda sunt foarte mici dar daca va avea o retorica mult mai ingrijorata cu privire la inflatie decat data trecuta , break ul de azi pe Euro va fi confirmat iar daca NFP ul de poimaine nu dezamageste trendul Long ramane lung cel putin 1 luna cu sanse de mentinere a directiei pana pe 1 Mai 2011.

 

 

Lira ar putea fi prima cu rata dobanzii schimbata asa ca 1.67, 1.70 sunt in carti,

 

 

edit

 

http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_110303.en.html

 

 

 

 

 

Chiar daca acum fundamentul este neclar as putea sa presupun ca sansele ca Dolarul sa piarda teren in fata majorelor in urmatorele 3 luni sunt foarte mari din urmatoarele motive:

 

1. Premisele pentru o interventie militara a SUA in Liban in viitorul apropiat au crescut considerabil.

 

2. Pretul petrolului va creste nesustenabil peste nivelul psihologic de 100 de dolari pe baril.

Nu cred ca OPEC este cea care decide pretul petrolui deci cresterea, chiar daca va fi de scurta durata, va influenta totusi negativ cresterea economica sau mai bine zis revenirea economiilor in prima parte a anului 2011.

 

3.Infliatia in SUA nu trecut de 2% asa cum se intampla in UE si UK iar rata somajului chiar daca pe trend descendent nu este la nivelul asteptatarilor.. In atare conditii, rata dobanzii pe Dolar va ramane neschimbata ba chiar se poate pune problema introducerii QE3.

 

4. Cresterea preturilor la materiile prime, speculativ sau nu, va mentine cererea ridicata pentru AUD, NZD si CAD.

 

5. Sansele ca UE si UK sa ridice dobanda cel putin cu 50 de puncte pana in Iunie sunt foarte mari.

 

6. In continuare China mentine rate de diversificare a rezervei valutare deci tot in detrimentul Dolarului.

 

7. Un Dolar slab ajuta acum SUA asa cum China isi mentine Yuanul mult sub valoarea lui reala

 

In consecinta, chiar daca unul din punctele de mai sus nu se indeplineste raman destule care sa mentina directia Dolarului in urmatoarele 3 luni .

On Monday, South Korea and the U.S. are to launch drills aimed at rehearsing how to respond to any potential emergency on the Korean peninsula.

The two Koreas are still technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea to help deter potential aggression by the North.

WSJ.com

Printre altele, dragul de Draghi, Guvernatorul bancii centrale a Italiei, cel cu target la 1.38 de acu' o saptamana si tanar candidat la sefia ECB, a avut timp de un interviu Sambata zicand ca politica monetara a ECB trebuie inasprita, Libia e in razboi civil deja dar Arabia Saudita zice ca suplineste productia de petrol chiar daca e de calitate inferioara si unii dealeri cred ca problema Libiei oricum nu tine mult iar in Iran iar se cauta nod in papura cu programul nuclear.

Daca Vineri s-a marcat profitul pe final de luna, saptamana ce vine va fi ca de obicei sub influentata Rata Dobanzii pe UE si a NFP ul de vineri ce are previziune pozitiva.a 5 a luna consecutiv.si daca nu incepe un mic razboi nuclear intre Korei cred ca Euro e pe val de buy daca adaug si declaratia doamnei Lagarde ce crede ca un Euro puternic este dezirabil.

Dialoguri cu Dl. Darzu

Dl. Darzu spune ca Petrolul are sanse sa ajunga mult peste 100 de Dolari Barilul.

Da tot ce se poate, speculativ sau nu, sansele sunt mari sa treaca de 100 de dolari. Aici trebuie sa luam in calcul ca OPEC poate suplimenta ceea ce nu vine din Libia prin marirea productiei.

Totusi, expunerea pe unele tari UE este considerabila la problemele Libiei, cea mai expusa fiind Italia.

 

 

Dar, pe noi ne intereseaza daca ratele la Lira si Euro , tocmai datorita cresterii pretului petrolului si a inflatiei implicit, vor fi marite.

 

Aici mai multe variante :

 

1.Creste rata dobanzii si deci mai slabeste inflatia generata de cresterea preturilor la materiile prime.

 

 

2. Mentine rata pentru a nu crea probleme tarilor cu "probleme" gen Portugalia , Spania sau Grecia dar infllatia va creste mult peste targetul de 2%.

 

3. Creste rata doar cu 50 de puncte si deci nu acopera cu mult cresterea infllatiei.

 

 

In situatia in care, Euro nu urmeaza pasul cu Petrolul nu cumva vom plati mai multi Euro pe un baril de petrol?

 

Raportul Euro cu Dolarul ajuta in ambele situatii , slab sau puternic, depinde de scop.

 

misca Lira, azi la 11 30 ora Ro

Nu mai zic nimic in plus decat ca pana acum erau doar 2 baietei care vroiau sa ridice rata din grupul celor care decid soarta Dobanzii. Daca se mai adauga cel putin inca unul s-are Lira . 49.gif

 

Iar pe seara Trichet si alti strengari ce pot da impulsuri imediate in piata mai au ceva de zis.

3 dileme azi

Prima Dilema.

 

Ori cumperi Dolari caci pretul Petrolului va creste si deci arunci cu restul majorelor ori cumperi Euro caci ECB creste dobanda?

La prima ora pe bursa asiatica lumea se uita la Libia, a 9 a tara exportatoare de petrol, dar cand candidatii la ECB au inceput sa se intreaca in interviuri care mai de care mai ingrijorat de rata inflatiei lumea s-au uitat la Euro.

Noroc ca noi rumanii dormeam cand asia isi facea de cap prin rezistentele de buy.

 

A doua Dilema.

 

Acum, ca am cumparat Euro, nu cumva cresterea ratei dobanzii nu va face mai mult rau Portugaliei, Spaniei si Greciei?

 

A treia Dilema

 

Daca tinerii candidati sugereaza doar o crestere dar pe 3 Martie, dupa negocieri dure, Rata ramane stabila?

Euro, Petrolul si Libienii

After six weeks of protests, the Middle East turmoil has now spread to a major oil producer for the first time, causing the price of Brent crude to hit $105 per barrel—a level not seen since September 2008. That price reaction may exaggerate Libya's importance, but it reflects growing concerns the crisis may spread to other producers

European shares fell sharply Monday, led by the financial sector, as investors nervously watched the political unrest spreading across the Mideast and North Africa.

De la WSJ.com

Cumulat cu inflatia maricica in UE sansele ca ECB sa ridice dobanda sunt mai mari ca acum 1 saptamana. Daca bondurile pe Portigalia isi pastreaza nivelul aproximativ, sentimentul se poate schimba pe zona Euro de la frica de default la specula pe cresterea ratei dobanzii,

Azi Germania a surprins din nou pozitiv iar restul datelor sunt incurajatoare.

“I think this is the best characterization of what we see in Europe” he told reporters. “I’ve already said in the past that we’re above 2 percent now, with a tendency to increase. I think that the turnaround in inflation developments might not come as soon as we expected in the past. So, clearly, there are risks to the upside

Inca 2 3 stiri de genul asta si plecam la 1.41 . Tot ce incurca este intalnirea de la inceputul lui Martie a UE.

1. We, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, met today to address ongoing economic and financial challenges and to agree on a way forward to fulfill the mandates given to us by our Leaders.

 

2. The global recovery is strengthening but is still uneven and downside risks remain. While most advanced economies are seeing modest growth and persisting high unemployment, emerging economies are experiencing more robust growth, some with signs of overheating. We reaffirm our willingness to ensure a consistent and coordinated response to the challenges we face, address the root causes of the crisis and restore global economic growth on a sounder basis.

 

3. We reaffirm our commitment to coordinated policy action by all G20 members to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Our main priority actions include implementing medium term fiscal consolidation plans differentiated according to national circumstances in line with our Toronto commitment, pursuing appropriate monetary policy, enhancing exchange rate flexibility to better reflect underlying economic fundamentals and structural reforms, to sustain global demand, increase potential growth, foster job creation and contribute to global rebalancing. We discussed progress made since the Seoul Summit and stressed the need to reduce excessive imbalances and maintain current account imbalances at sustainable levels by strengthening multilateral cooperation. We agreed on a set of indicators that will allow us to focus, through an integrated two-step process, on those persistently large imbalances which require policy actions. To complete the work required for the first step, our aim is to agree, by our next meeting in April, on indicative guidelines against which each of these indicators will be assessed, recognizing the need to take into account national or regional circumstances, including large commodity producers. While not targets, these indicative guidelines will be used to assess the following indicators: (i) public debt and fiscal deficits; and private savings rate and private debt (ii) and the external imbalance composed of the trade balance and net investment income flows and transfers, taking due consideration of exchange rate, fiscal, monetary and other policies. We also adopted a timetable for developing the 2011 action plan that will implement our Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth and monitor the commitments already made. As agreed in Seoul, we call on the IMF to provide an assessment as part of the Mutual Assessment Process on progress towards external sustainability and consistency of policies at our October meeting. At that time, we will also review a report on the MAP including an action plan informed by the analysis on the root causes of persistently large imbalances based on the agreed guidelines. We will also review an assessment of progress made in meeting commitments made in Seoul.

 

4. The international monetary system (IMS) has proven resilient, but vulnerabilities remain, which raise the need to improve it in order to ensure systemic stability, promote orderly adjustment, and avoid disruptive fluctuations in capital flows, disorderly movements in exchange rates – including advanced economies with reserve currencies being vigilant against excess volatility – and persistent misalignement of exchange rates. Today we agreed on a work program aimed at strengthening the functioning of the IMS, including through coherent approaches and measures to deal with potentially destabilizing capital flows, among which macro-prudential measures, mindful of possible drawbacks; and management of global liquidity to strengthen our capacity to prevent and deal with shocks, including issues such as Financial Safety Nets and the role of the SDR. This will also require discussions on exchange rates issues and on the strengthening of IMF surveillance. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting in April a report from the IMF on the strengthening of the IMS and reports by the World Bank and the RDBs building on experiences, on actions to strengthen local capital markets and domestic currency borrowing in emerging and developing economies. In addition, we will benefit from the work of OECD on capital flows, and from the contributions of other relevant international organizations, such as UNCTAD.

 

5. We discussed concerns about consequences of potential excessive commodity price volatility and asked our deputies to work with international organizations and to report back to us on the underlying drivers and the challenges posed by these trends for both consumers and producers and consider possible actions. Keeping in mind the impact of this volatility on food security, we reiterated the need for long-term investment in the agricultural sector in developing countries. We welcomed the interim report by the IEF, IEA and OPEC to improve the quality, timeliness and reliability of the Joint Organization Data Initiative Oil (JODI oil) and call for further work on strategies to implement these recommendations to be detailed in their final report. Building on the Riyadh symposium held on January 24th, we encourage the IEF to provide concrete strategies to improve the producer-consumer dialogue at its next meeting on February 22nd 2011. Following our Leaders’ request, we call on the IMF and IEF, as well as IEA, GECF and OPEC, to develop by October 2011 concrete recommendations to extend the G20’s work on oil price volatility to gas and coal. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting the report of IEF, IEA, OPEC and IOSCO on price reporting agencies as well as the interim report on food security currently being undertaken by the relevant international organizations, and IOSCO’s recommendations, and the FSB’s consideration of next steps, on regulation and supervision of commodity derivatives markets notably to strengthen transparency and address market abuses.

 

6. We commit to pursuing the reform of the financial sector. Despite good progress, significant work remains. We will implement fully the Basel III new standards for banks within the agreed timelines while taking due account of the agreed observation periods and review clauses in respect of the liquidity standards. Likewise, we will implement in an internationally consistent and non-discriminatory way the FSB’s recommendations on OTC derivatives and on reducing reliance on credit rating agencies’ ratings. We look forward to the completion by the next Leaders’ Summit of the following ongoing work on systemically important financial institutions as scheduled in the FSB work program for 2011: determination of Global-systemically important financial institutions by FSB and national authorities based on indicative criteria, a comprehensive multi-pronged framework with more intensive supervisory oversight; effective resolution capacity including in a cross-border context; higher loss absorbency measures through a menu of viable alternatives that may include, depending on national circumstances, capital surcharges, contingent capital and bail-in instruments ; and other supplementary requirements as determined by the national authorities including systemic levies. Once the framework initially applicable to G-SIFIs is agreed, we will move expeditiously to cover all SIFIs. We look forward to the 2 reports to be finalized by the BIS, IMF and FSB on macro-prudential frameworks and by the FSB, IMF and World Bank with input of national authorities on financial stability issues in emerging market and developing economies by our October meeting. We look forward to the recommendations that the FSB will prepare by mid-2011 on regulation and oversight of the shadow banking system to efficiently address the risks, notably of arbitrage, associated with shadow banking and its interactions with the regulated banking system. We call on IOSCO to develop by mid-2011 recommendations to promote markets’ integrity and efficiency notably to mitigate the risks created by the latest technological developments. We also call on the FSB to bring forward for our next meeting comprehensive proposals to strengthen its governance, resources and outreach. We urge all jurisdictions to fully implement the FSB principles and standards on sounder compensation practices agreed by the G20 Leaders in Pittsburgh and call on the FSB to undertake ongoing monitoring in this area and look forward to receiving the results of a second thorough FSB peer review midyear to identify remaining gaps. We call on the OECD, the FSB and other relevant international organizations to develop common principles on consumer protection in the field of financial services by our October meeting. We reaffirm our commitment to more effective oversight and supervision, including regular stress testing of banks building on the Basel committee’s principles.

 

7. We reiterated our call to improve compliance with international standards and strengthen the process of identifying non-cooperative jurisdictions. We look forward to the forthcoming update by FATF of the public list of jurisdictions with strategic deficiencies and to a public list of all jurisdictions evaluated by the FSB ahead of the next G20 Leaders Summit. We welcome the 18 peer reviews issued by the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information and urge all jurisdictions so far identified as not having the elements in place to achieve an effective exchange of information to promptly address the weaknesses. We look forward to the progress report by November 2011, based on the expected completion of around 60 phase 1 reviews, to address in particular the jurisdictions’ quality of cooperation with the Forum, level of compliance and unsolved deficiencies. We call upon more jurisdictions to join the Global Forum and to commit to implementing the standards. We urge all jurisdictions to extend further their networks of Tax Information Exchange Agreements and encourage jurisdictions to consider signing the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters.

 

8. We discussed the way forward on implementing the Seoul Development Consensus on Shared Growth and its Multi-Year Action Plan. In particular we welcome the launch of the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion last December. We also welcome the appointment of the members of the High Level Panel for Infrastructure Investment, and look forward to their recommendations by September. We discussed the report made by the UN High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing. We welcome the positive outcomes of the Cancun Climate Conference, and in particular the decision to establish a Green Climate Fund, and will pursue discussions on mobilizing sources of financing, including public and private, bilateral and multilateral, as well as innovative sources, consistent with the objective, provisions and principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

 

9. We reaffirm our commitment to free trade and investment recognizing its central importance for the global recovery. We will refrain from introducing, and oppose protectionist trade actions in all forms and recognize the importance of a prompt conclusion of the Doha negotiations.

 

10. We stand ready to support Egypt and Tunisia, with responses at the appropriate time well coordinated with the international institutions and the regional development banks to accompany reforms designed to the benefit of the whole population and the stabilization of their economies.

 

© Copyright ministère de l'Économie, de l'industrie et de l'emploi, 19/02/2011

 

Semafoare pentru Balonase

G 20 condusa de data asta de Lagarde, frantuzoaica ce taie si spanzura in bugetul Frantei si prima femeie din aproape defunctul G8 ce are pe mana finantele unei tari , are de gand sa caute cativa indicatori sub forma de semafor care sa arate daca cutare miscare in cutare sector e posibil sa produca un balonas. Un balonas asemanator cu cel din anii 2000 unde casutele de lemn se vindeau la pret de casute de caramida si cele de caramida la pret de bloc turn.

 

Tot la G20 stand la o cafeluta si la un trabucel, finantisti si capi de banci centrale vor dialoga si pe teme de FX ca punct doi in ordinea importantei si alte lucruri domestice ce se discuta in asemenea adunari romantice.

 

Daca rezultatul discutiilor intre liderii finantelor lumii va fi si dat publicitatii la rubrica " trenduri noi de la G20 pornite" va misca si piata azi ?, nu cred, caci e un pic Vineri, zi de facut bagajele si de facut rezervari prin statiunile lumii pentru o mica pauza binemeritata, zi scurta cu inchideri pe profit sau nu, cu batai prietenesti pe umar intre traderii fericiti sau nu, cu barfe mici spuse pe la vre-un fumuar racoros sau zi de facut curat pe hard , de sters tastatura si soricelul de grasimi si praf pentru traderi mai mici dar cu nazuinte mari.

 

Daca Euro , moneda singurica, va lua la intrebari SL urile de prin zona 1.36 37 sau cele de pe la 1.34 33 e greu de spus azi caci Trichet, Bernanke % Co. sunt acum la pas strengar pe ulitele Parisului in cautare de mici turnulele Eiffel ca suvenir, deci clar ca nu sunt la butoane azi asa ca ce am presupus la inceputul lunii incepe sa se contureze deja - un range prelungit c-am pana-n Martie, un range care cu cat e mai lung cu atat are sanse ca Break ul lui sa fie mai viguros.

 

Lira se va catara in stilul ei caracteristic pe varfuri noi noute anul asta presupun caci inflatia de la insulari c-am face victime prin nordul Marii Britanii si Rata Dobanzii pare c-am plapanda la nivelul ei de acum asa ca, o mica crestere e asteptata mai repede decat ar vrea unii si deci si raportul intre alte valute si Lira se va marii simtitor probabil in favoarea ultimei.

 

Aud ramane favorit in continuare peste paritate zic eu, chiar daca soarta a lovit rau in estul Australiei si minerii nu pot deveni peste noapte mineri-scafandri. Si cum NZD ul e tot in zona iar inflatia Chinei nu mai sperie chiar asa de tare, cred ca pe general butonul Risk On este deja apasat.

 

Pana acum Februarie are corespondenta in trecut ca patern si atitudine, deci este in limitele noului normal din lumea FX ului, cu Asia pe Buy in continuare pe Euro, nu ca o fi intragostita de UE dar mai diversifica si ei ca orice trezorerie ce se respecta, cu "Ursii" de la inceput de an inca lingandu-si ranile dupa lupta pierduta foarte rapid cu Taurii lumii si cu un fundament inca neclar pentru a da un trend mai clar pe chart.

 

Am scris mai devreme decat inchiderea Londrei azi caci si eu voi face mai repede ca de obicei ce a facut tata in asemenea tip de market acum ceva timp. A apasat X ul din coltul dreapta sus al ecranului si a calcat acceleratia catre Valea Prahovei fara sa se uite in oglinda retrovizoare mult timp. :D

 

Eu am sa ma uit totusi in oglinda doar ca sa-mi sterg paternul rosu de buze de pe obraz caci e misto sa fi pupat asteptand la semafor si sa dai drumul pe geam la balonase multe si colorate.09.gif

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