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Sarrafx's Blog

Un blog de sarrafx în General

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Despre acest blog

Market view and Trade Ideas

Intrări în acest blog

Why wear blinkers?

Basically, I think it is impossible to make money trading FX (or any other market) by using technical analysis alone. No matter what indicators, time frame or system you use it cannot work in isolation.   These markets work on so many levels with so many influences, inputs and indicators that to limit oneself to one seems to me a little naïve.   Read more: http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/46/Why-wear-blinkers?
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Where can the West find growth?

Where can the West find growth? The release this morning of GDP data for the EU shows that growth is going to remain elusive for developed economies for some time to come. A further quarter on quarter fall and a year on year figure of -0.6% shows just how dire things remain. German Factory Orders also released this morning were appreciably better than expected but this merely highlights how bad things are in the rest of economy that is inexorably linked by the single currency. Now that the immed

What makes market?

What makes a market?   Yesterday’s blog and subsequent discussion reminded me a lot of how things used to be.   It is important that we share ideas. If it takes someone to be provocative or controversial to get people talking then that is a good thing for us all.   For me it is to understand the mentality and thinking of the participants in these markets but I am also trying to help to broaden the horizons of those who are new to FX or trading in general.   Want to read more? Go to http://www.sa
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What is a Carry Trade?

By early 2007, it was estimated that some US$1 trillion may have been staked on the yen carry trade. The risk in carry trading is that foreign exchange rates may change to the effect that the investor would have to pay back more expensive currency with less valuable currency. In theory, according to uncovered interest rate parity, carry trades should not yield a predictable profit because the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the rate at which investors expect the
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Todays Risk/Reward Trade

Today's Risk/Reward trade   Today we see the decision of the German Constitutional Court on the legality of the ESM.   Markets are on the starting blocks to buy Euro assets of every type and see the 1.30 level against the USD as ready to be broken in an instant.   Being contrarian for a moment and looking at the possibilities that the court either finds the ESM illegal (unlikely) or attaches some quite major conditions (possible) where will the Euro trade then.   Technically the Euro looks overb
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Thinking of Social Trading........................Don't!

I have been involved in FX markets in one form or another for 25 years and believe myself to have seen most things that can occur. For example I was in charge of the overnight desk at a major trading bank the night that sterling left the ERM! That is the single most incredible market move I have ever seen. I have executed billion dollar orders manually and seen stop losses get chased by traders because they see that as a legitimate market practice. In this business you are always learning and a
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The Concept of Leverage

more general explanation of this term can be found in the glossary section of education corner on our website www.sarrax.com. In the retail foreign exchange market, the term leverage determines the amount of risk an investor is able to take as a multiple of his margin. Clearly, the higher the leverage, the more at risk his capital (or margin) is at. For example, an investor places Eur 10,000 in his margin account. At his account opening, he has specified that he wished to trade with a leverage o
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The Big Picture

I am Eurosceptic with a capital E!   My views on the Euro were forged as far back as 1992 when the Maastricht treaty was first signed.   I felt like the boy in the children's story of The Kings New Clothes. In the same way that the boy could see that the king was naked, I could see that the single currency was a potential disaster and I was very pleased that my country (U.K.) would not be participating. I do not consider myself a grand sage or predictor of future events. However the vision of on
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That was 2012

So, that was 2012! What did we learn? Well, as far as I am concerned, I learned that gravity doesn’t exist! What is holding the Euro up? I have now idea. It seems that with Greece having secured a further bailout, all in the garden is rosy. The Euro is trading up above 1.30 (as I write) and making multi month highs against an ailing JPY. There is something of a paradox here. Of the two major safe haven currencies, the JPY is weaker as their economy struggles and further QE is expected while the

Take a look at sterling today

The up move is overdone and ditto in most of the spaces thus one can expect corrective move.   More or less the pair achieved the closer to the max range of 1.6100-1.6130.   Further gains would be tough to negotiate and thus would prefer a dollar rally.   This is despite the fact that the dollar has broken the trend line in weekly and thus posted one of the bear pictures in the recent months.   However most of the pairs are in critical junctures like Euro near the monthly trend line, Sterling ne
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Success in Margin Trading

Before getting started with a live account using your own funds open a demo or practice account (with Sarrafx). Use that account first of all to navigate around the site and monitor how it functions. Get to know the platform as you aren't really ready to trade yet understand the functionality you can't do any harm. It is more than "kicking the tyres". Hopefully going forward this will be the engine that drives your profits. FX margin trading and indeed all FX trading is driven by two major facto
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Spanish Package Deal

So it’s now all about Spain!   It still defeats me that a country getting its house in (some kind of) order prior to asking for a bailout is positive for either risk appetite or the currency.   As relief rallies go yesterdays was pretty impressive but does that really now mean that the market has gone away from the technically significant 1.2930 level?   It seems there is always another potential banana skin on the horizon and already today we have seen dismal growth data from France. The French
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SARRAFX: Our philosophy

Our philosophy is to give our clients all the tools that are necessary to enable them to be successful.   Our management team is experienced in the financial markets having spent, collectively, more than five decades in the business.   Our experience teaches us that not all information is good information and feeling obliged to report readily available data and news to clients is not only wasting their time but is also counterproductive.   Over the past twenty years markets have changed out of a

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