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Un blog de sarrafx în General

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Market view and Trade Ideas

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Greeece remains ar Europes Centre

It seems that we can no longer label those heavily indebted countries of Southern Europe as being the periphery. The idea that Greece leaving the Eurozone could cause the disintegration of the single currency means that the tail continues to wag the dog and will do for some time to come. Europe is at last waking up to the idea that were Greece to leave, then the domino effect could be catastrophic. Keeping Greece in the club and funding its needs seems to have been accepted as policy. Mrs Merkel
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Where can the West find growth?

Where can the West find growth? The release this morning of GDP data for the EU shows that growth is going to remain elusive for developed economies for some time to come. A further quarter on quarter fall and a year on year figure of -0.6% shows just how dire things remain. German Factory Orders also released this morning were appreciably better than expected but this merely highlights how bad things are in the rest of economy that is inexorably linked by the single currency. Now that the immed
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Take a look at sterling today

The up move is overdone and ditto in most of the spaces thus one can expect corrective move.   More or less the pair achieved the closer to the max range of 1.6100-1.6130.   Further gains would be tough to negotiate and thus would prefer a dollar rally.   This is despite the fact that the dollar has broken the trend line in weekly and thus posted one of the bear pictures in the recent months.   However most of the pairs are in critical junctures like Euro near the monthly trend line, Sterling ne
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Risk off

http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/75/Risk-off
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sarrafx

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That was 2012

So, that was 2012! What did we learn? Well, as far as I am concerned, I learned that gravity doesn’t exist! What is holding the Euro up? I have now idea. It seems that with Greece having secured a further bailout, all in the garden is rosy. The Euro is trading up above 1.30 (as I write) and making multi month highs against an ailing JPY. There is something of a paradox here. Of the two major safe haven currencies, the JPY is weaker as their economy struggles and further QE is expected while the
sarrafx

sarrafx

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The Big Picture

I am Eurosceptic with a capital E!   My views on the Euro were forged as far back as 1992 when the Maastricht treaty was first signed.   I felt like the boy in the children's story of The Kings New Clothes. In the same way that the boy could see that the king was naked, I could see that the single currency was a potential disaster and I was very pleased that my country (U.K.) would not be participating. I do not consider myself a grand sage or predictor of future events. However the vision of on
sarrafx

sarrafx

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SARRAFX: Our philosophy

Our philosophy is to give our clients all the tools that are necessary to enable them to be successful.   Our management team is experienced in the financial markets having spent, collectively, more than five decades in the business.   Our experience teaches us that not all information is good information and feeling obliged to report readily available data and news to clients is not only wasting their time but is also counterproductive.   Over the past twenty years markets have changed out of a
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Why wear blinkers?

Basically, I think it is impossible to make money trading FX (or any other market) by using technical analysis alone. No matter what indicators, time frame or system you use it cannot work in isolation.   These markets work on so many levels with so many influences, inputs and indicators that to limit oneself to one seems to me a little naïve.   Read more: http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/46/Why-wear-blinkers?
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Out of Control

Is the situation in Europe out of control?   It seems that more and more issues are piling up on the already unsolved problems that have been in existence virtually since the crisis began in 2008!   Greece has apparently met only 22% of its responsibilities to cut spending under the latest bailout and has asked for a two year extension to its obligations.   It is hard to imagine that Greece can survive within the Eurozone given its lack of ability driven by social unrest to meet the agreements i
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Frayed at the edges

The President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus, is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.   In an interview yesterday he made some very valid points regarding the peripheral countries and those on the outside looking to enter.   He called himself a “euro-realist,” saying he supports European integration while not embracing the shift towards “unification, centralization, harmonization, standardization” of the whole continent, including the single currency.   The term Euro-Realist
sarrafx

sarrafx

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Spanish Package Deal

So it’s now all about Spain!   It still defeats me that a country getting its house in (some kind of) order prior to asking for a bailout is positive for either risk appetite or the currency.   As relief rallies go yesterdays was pretty impressive but does that really now mean that the market has gone away from the technically significant 1.2930 level?   It seems there is always another potential banana skin on the horizon and already today we have seen dismal growth data from France. The French
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sarrafx

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