dirzuandreiovidiu

Would a Greek default be automatic doom? Commentary: A review of past sovereign debt crises CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — History may not repeat itself, Mark Twain famously once said, but it often rhymes. And the rhyme that has caught many commentators’ attention in recent days is between what’s happening currently in Greece and Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in the fall of 2008. Just as that bankruptcy brought the world’s financial system to the brink of collapse, a Greek default could easily do the same today. That certainly is very scary poetry indeed. But it turns out that the Lehman Brothers-induced catastrophe is not the only thing with which a potential Greek default could rhyme. And some of those other rhymes turn out to have a much more pleasant sound. In fact, prior to Greece’s recent difficulties, there have been at least four other occasions over the last two decades in which a potential sovereign default sent shockwaves throughout the markets. The stock market, on average, rose over the two years following those previous crises. The sovereign debt crises to which I am referring are: The Mexican peso devaluation and associated crisis, which began in December 1994 A government debt crisis in Thailand in the summer of 1997, which led to a run on that country’s currency and, in succession, many other Asian nations’ currencies as well — and which introduced into our lexicon the phrase “Asian contagion” The Russian ruble devaluation in August 1998, which led to (among other things) the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management The Argentinian government debt/currency crisis that began in November/December 2001 The accompanying chart is based on a composite of how the stock market reacted following all four cases, with 100 representing the stock market’s level when those crises first broke onto the world financial scene. On average the stock market was 17% higher in one year’s time (or 252 business days on the chart). Furthermore, this healthy pace of advance continued well into the second year (as represented by the red line). Notice in particular the blue line, which represents the stock market’s advance since Greece’s sovereign debt crisis became a headline worry in the U.S. (in late November of 2009). Notice that, within acceptable tolerances, the stock market this time around has followed a remarkably similar path. Of course, since I don’t want to get an angry call from my college statistics professor, I need to stress that this “remarkable” similarity may simply be a coincidence. Any statistical analysis based on a sample of just four prior events has very little validity. But, I nevertheless should point out, the bears are on no stronger statistical ground when arguing that a Greek default would have the same impact on the world financial markets as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The general lesson to draw from all this is that finding historical events that “rhyme” with what’s going on right now involves a lot of picking and choosing. The bears pick those precedents that bolster their pessimistic outlook, while the bulls gravitate to those analogs that reinforce an optimistic forecast. Call it the battle of the rhymes. By showing the bullish rhymes in the chart above, I don’t mean to suggest that the stock market will continue to go up in the event of a Greek default. My point is simply to remind us that the Greek default doesn’t have to rhyme with Lehman.

Barbones, si daca Grecia e lasata sa faca default intri short?

Pai da Barbule dar daca nu obtin vot majoritar in Grecia, tai tai cu imprumutul. http://www.money.ro/un-singur-tradator-grec-poate-arunca-in-aer-europa_1010146.html

Atunci Goldman Sachs va simti serios pumnul in stomac, la deschiderea de luni a pietii si nu numai. Va avea multe procese, cum a mai avut in trecut, cu alte ocazii. Dar nu cred ca Germania, din cauza ca sunt alageri, se vede nevoita sa scoata iepuroiul asta gigant din palarie, numit imprumut Greciei - nu, nicidecum!

Uite aici Barbule: http://www.wall-street.ro/articol/Economie/105235/Grecia-asteapta-verdictul-Ce-se-intampla-in-Romania-in-cazul-unui-DEFAULT.html

Cine si-a putut imagina vreodata ca Lehman Brothers va cadea si ce impact va avea pe pietele lumii? Nebunie, nu? Poate fi si Grecia, un colaps la nivel de stat, nu-i asa?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8581092/Greeces-ace-card-help-us-or-well-take-you-all-down.html

Pune-le si tu intrebari capcana sau vezi cand grandomania da peste margini si strange-i cu usa. Iar daca interviul decurge mai "diferit" decat orice alt interviu, frumos fata in fata cu directorul sau recrutorul, atunci spune-i ca ai treburi mai frumoase de facut, ori scuza-te politicos si pe-aici ti-i usa.

@Adi.M Nu cred ca sunt una si aceiasi companie cu Barclays, o sa trimit un mail sa ma informez in legatura cu asta, ca o curiozitate. Barclays sunt in UK, cel putin asa stiu. Iar Barclay Hedge au locatie in USA.

@Adi. M Parerea mea in legatura cu Barclay Hedge Index, e ca pot fi cifre sfrunate, oricine poate sa puna niste cifre pe undeva si sa se laude cu ele. Sunt doar biti de informatie. Iar, in legatura cu performanta, poti sa faci mult mai mult decat ei, fiindca: 1. Tu nu intervii direct in "piata interbancara", cel mai probabil 2. Nu tranzactionezi cu sume uriase ce sa nu iti poata permita o lejeritate la inchiderea tranzactiilor mai ales. Asta, daca esti suficient de deschis la minte. Daca nu, nu.

Stau si ma intreb uneori ce gandesc americanii in legatura cu dolar-ul lor amarat, care a suferit cam mult de-a lungul timpul, doar pentru ca tipii de pe wall street sa isi faca mendrele, pe banii lor. Purchasing power, ala, a tot scazut si scazut si scazut.

Asa da.

Cred ca nu se mai poate vorbi de QE3 si ca o sa vedem EUR|USD la noi minime pana in decembrie. Abstract!

http://www.gandul.info/financiar/intra-din-nou-sua-in-criza-analistii-americani-ultima-luna-a-fost-un-spectacol-de-groaza-solutia-pregatiti-va-pentru-a-porni-tiparnita-de-bani-8308830

Si daca Grecia ar pune probleme UE nu vad cum ar afecta EUR|USD pe termen lung, pe termen mediu - posibil, insa cam atat. Trebuie ceva mai puternic pentru mai mult.

@gabriel Cred ca se referea ca ii poti trimite un mesaj personal pe vamist.

Ce inseamna destul de multe instrumente? 26 de perechi pe forex sau mai au si CFD-uri si actiuni? Cheers.

Inchiderea tranzactiei long AUD|USD:

Evolutia tranzactiei long AUD|USD:

Era vorba de volatilitatea pietii (zilnica), dupa cum o prezenta Mataf.net, in pips.

@Caliux Perioada de corectie a caror perechi, sau la ce te referi? Sper ca nu te referi la volatilitatea scazuta. Scaderea volatilitatii ii afecteaza pe cei care stau prost la capitolul rabdare si pe cei a caror algoritmi trebuie constant imbunatatiti din punct de vedere al acestui aspect. Caci, spre exemplu, una e o candela de 250 de pips, alta e 100 de pips. Big difference.

Inchiderea tranzactiei long EUR|AUD:

Inchiderea tranzactiei long AUD|CAD:

Tranzactia long AUD|CAD:

Tranzactia long EUR|AUD: