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http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/78/Politics-&-Economics

http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/77/Austerity%E2%80%A6%E2%80%A6%E2%80%A6The-new-dirty-word

http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/73/Unequal-recovery

So it’s now all about Spain! It still defeats me that a country getting its house in (some kind of) order prior to asking for a bailout is positive for either risk appetite or the currency. As relief rallies go yesterdays was pretty impressive but does that really now mean that the market has gone away from the technically significant 1.2930 level? It seems there is always another potential banana skin on the horizon and already today we have seen dismal growth data from France. The French economy was flat in Q2 and grew at 0.3%YoY. German retails sales for August were also worse than expected. Back to Spain though and later today we see the results of the stress tests that have been performed on their banks. Additional capital requirements of over Eur 100 bio. are already in the market but this will lead Spain closer to a bailout request. It is ironic that yesterday’s 5th austerity package drew appreciation from the market which saw Spanish bond yields drop. Prime Minister Rajoy has said that he won’t ask for a bailout unless bond yields “remained too high”. The Spanish Government will raid for the first time a decade-old pension reserve fund that invests in government debt to pay for an increase in retirement payments. The Cabinet agreed to use 3 billion euros ($3.9 billion) from the 67 billion-euro reserve fund, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria told reporters yesterday in Madrid. It raised pensions 1% in the 2013 budget and indicated it would compensate retirees for above-forecast inflation. “The reserve fund is there to be used,” Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said. “Politically, it’s very important” to maintain pensioners’ purchasing power. The pension reserve invests mostly in Spanish government bonds, and accounts for about 10% of the central government’s outstanding debt. The cache that has been built up since 2000 to safeguard pensions from the aging population is being raided as the 25% jobless rate undermines the welfare system’s revenue. This adds to pressure for Spain to ask for the bailout since it means less support for Spanish debt. It is clear that if the fund is being drawn upon it won’t then be able to invest in future bond issues. What conclusions can be drawn from Spain’s 5th austerity package? Read my views here

Is the situation in Europe out of control? It seems that more and more issues are piling up on the already unsolved problems that have been in existence virtually since the crisis began in 2008! Greece has apparently met only 22% of its responsibilities to cut spending under the latest bailout and has asked for a two year extension to its obligations. It is hard to imagine that Greece can survive within the Eurozone given its lack of ability driven by social unrest to meet the agreements it has signed. Want to Read more? http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/49/Out-of-Control

I am Eurosceptic with a capital E! My views on the Euro were forged as far back as 1992 when the Maastricht treaty was first signed. I felt like the boy in the children's story of The Kings New Clothes. In the same way that the boy could see that the king was naked, I could see that the single currency was a potential disaster and I was very pleased that my country (U.K.) would not be participating. I do not consider myself a grand sage or predictor of future events. However the vision of one size fitting all was the most preposterous idea I could think of. Having studied economics and seen at first hand while trading their currencies how Spain and Italy managed their economies it was clear that they would never be able to manage the fiscal discipline of the German model. Their high inflation, high interest rate economies seem to fit nicely the persona of the people and therefore the image of the country. Equally, the discipline of Germany reflected perfectly the persona of their people and therefore the image of the country. How this was going to work in one big melting pot was something that has been keenly observed over the past twenty years as it has evolved to where we are today. Read more - http://www.sarrafx.com/en/view-blog-article/44/The-Big-Picture

With the event risk ahead and the market slightly in over bought zone and the monthly trend line acting as resistance further gains on close basis would be difficult. Now that the ongoing momentum took the pair towards the 1.2900 plus zone, one can expect a failure. Dollar bulls lost the plot across the board. Presently Euro price action is near 34 WMA and the Ichimoku has not thrown any change in the trend. As we have been indicating in the big picture 1.2780 is the conversion point for bulls and bears and the longer the euro bulls stay around these levels the bigger is the threat for the dollar bulls. Intra-day supports around 1.2870 resistance around the 1.2940 area are the two focal points. Bias is bullish. Near term however we would attempt on the short side as the rally is overdone. Strategy : Sell here and 1.2945 Stop Loss:- 1.3022 Profit:- 1.2780

Dupa NFP, treburile sunt in general clare.Dolarul incepe sa reintre pe trendul ascendent,avand la baza date care arata o revenire a economiei Americane.Rata somajului a scazut de la 8,5 la 8,3 , fiind peste asteptari.Locurile de munca au fost si ele peste asteptari, cu peste 243 de mii de joburi create in luna ianuarie. In acest timp, Euro da semne ca nu poate trece de 1.32, prag pe care a incercat de mai multe ori in aceasta saptamana sa-l sparga.Rumorile inca persista in zona Euro, unul dintre motive fiind neintelegerea dintre Grecia si UE privind o noua transa de bani. Lira tatoneaza 1.58, nereusind inca sa recunoasca acest prag ca suport. Revenind la indexul dolarului, dupa ce saptamana trecuta 79 a jucat rolul de rezistenta, lucrurile s-au schimbat dupa NFP, acest prag devenind suport. Principalul scop a dolarului pentru acesta saptamana este de a recupera din pierderile fata de yen,77 fiind urmatoarea tinta.

Adrian Vasilescu, consilierul guvernatorului BNR Mugur Isarescu, a avertizat, marti, ca, in cazul in care se va produce un nou razboi, acesta ar fi, cel mai probabil, unul economic. "S-ar putea sa vedem un Al Treilea Razboi Mondial, care va fi unul pur economic", a declarat, la Realitatea Tv, Adrian Vasilescu, consilierul guvernatorului Bancii Nationale a Romaniei. El si-a explicat afirmatiile dand drept exemplu cartea fostului sef al Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. "Indiferent cat de vinovat sau nevinovat este Greenspan (Alan Greenspan, economist american, fost presedinte al Federal Reserve, n.r.) in evenimentele care s-au produs, cartea 'Era turbulentelor' ramane de referinta pentru ca de-aici incolo noi am intrat intr-o era de vartejuri", a explicat Vasilescu. Oficialul BNR a mai aratat ca exista posibilitatea formarii unor noi aliante economice la nivel global care ar putea sa stabilizeze situatia, insa pana la acel moment exista riscul declansarii unui razboi economic. "S-ar putea sa avem un vartej mare, un razboi economic. S-ar putea sa vedem constituite blocuri noi, cu spatiul american, spatiul asiatic, poate Statele Unite ale Europei... Dar pana sa se faca aceste aranjamente, foarte multi se tem de razboi", a mai spus acesta. www,ziare.com http://www.minutul.ro/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/vasilescu.jpg

Starting in the 1950s, Europe’s leaders edged closer. First came the European coal and steel cartel. Then the Common Market. Then the European Union, which now includes 27 states. Then the disappearance of many border controls inside the EU. Finally, the euro. Each step of the way the nations of Europe gave up a little more sovereignty, deferring to EU officials in Brussels on regulatory issues, honoring the rulings of the top EU court, and — with some exceptions such as Britain — yielding the power to set interest rates to the European Central Bank. One thing no one surrendered: power over the national budget. Fiscal union, where a central authority has final say over each country’s spending and taxing, was never a possibility. Politically at least, it was a move too far: To control the budget was to control the nation itself. A European finance ministry? Trichet, one of the architects of the Maastricht Treaty that established the euro, said in June that he favored a European finance ministry and veto powers for the EU over national budgets. “Would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency, and a single central bank, to envisage a ministry of finance of the union?” he asked in a speech in Aachen, Germany. http://www.msnbc.msn...ss-us_business/

The Fed’s secret QE equivalent Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Aug 12 17:52. Anyone catch this from the New York Fed on Friday? It’s hugely important: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/12/652166/the-feds-secret-qe-equivalent/

4250 a picat. 4120 next daca Panda nu-si baga labuta ps. Si totusi, Grecia ia banii in Septembrie.

Intr-un sat stiut de multa lume isi ducea linistita zilele o banca mare mare cu bancheri foarte destoinici ce avea zeci de ani de experienta in manuirea fisicurilor de bani. Si uite asa cum trudeau ei sa agoniseasca profit de pe urma altor banci mai micute sau de pe la tot felul de firmulite mai mici sau mai mari, intr-o zi, un grup de flacai rai si hapsani au gandit ca daca vor pune foc la temelia bancii, va arde si ea dar si alte institutii cu care avea ea pod facut, iar Iarba puterii va incapea in mainile lor. Cu ajutorul ei, toate placerile din lume, stiute si nestiute, gustate si negustate, vor fi doar ale lor. http://www.picturicelebre.ro/images/monet%20capite%20la%20sfarsitul%20verii.jpg Asa s-a si intamplat. La cativa ani dupa aceea, cand flacaii au vazut cat de bine le merge si ce minunate sunt placerile lumii si cat de repede s-a intins valvataia peste mari si tari, de greu o mai puteai stinge s-au intrebat: daca ar urzi iar si ar da foc unei tari intregi nu cumva ar lua foc mai multe iar iarba puterii acum mult mai grasa a unei tari intregi ar incapea toata in capitele lor? Asa s-a si intamplat, Doar ca, in inima continentului unde acea tara a luat foc se afla o tara foarte bogata si cu flacai inalti si muncitori. Cand au vazut focul atat de mare la portile ei s-au gandit ca s-ar putea sa ajunga si la casele lor frumoase si ridicate cu exactitate si au dat o mana de ajutor saracei tari ce ardea mocnit aducand cateva galeti de apa sa mai domoleasca focul. Problema a fost ca nu s-au spetit foarte tare sa arunce cu apa peste acel foc pentru ca aveau de muncit si la industriile lor, care mergeau din ce in ce mai bine de cand focul aprinsese tarile din jur. Asa s-a intamplat. Si uite asa, incalecand pe-o banca grea, am spus povestea ce nu s-a mai povestit, decat pe anumite situri obscure si fara audienta, cum Iarba Puterii e cosita in timp ce citim asta poveste si stransa in capite grase de cativa flacai hapsani dar cu mult viclesug in suflet.

Mr. Ben Bernanke tocmai ce se pregateste sa mai scoata un iepure gras din maneca si anume QE3 – o noua infuzie masiva de capital in finantele lumii. Rata somajului si cresterea economica anemica nu-i dau mari sanse domnului Obama daca ritmul actual se mentine. E clar ca nu are de ales ca sa fie reales. Diferenta intre dobanzile celor doua monede , Euro si Dolar este acum neta in favoarea primei iar tot Banca Federala spune raspicat ca nu are de gand sa creasca dobanda la Dolar in acest an, ceea ce pune Euro in varful valutelor Carry Trade binenteles dupa Dolarul Australian. China, marele creditor al SUA a devenit de ceva vreme si un mare sustinator al Europei. Cum diversificarea rezervei valutare a bancii centrale Chineze este in plin avant iar Euro ocupa un loc bun pe podiumul achizitiilor, greu de crezut ca o eventuala devalorizare a acestuia va fi acceptata. http://scoalafx.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/blackswan3.jpg?w=288&h=354 Economia Germaniei, locomotiva atomica a UE, este mai productiva acum decat cu 4 5 ani in urma, facand eventualul colaps al economiei Greciei sa para ca o “victima colaterala”. Nu in ultimul rand Rusia, ce recent a anuntat ca “intr-o zi‘ se va alatura zonei Euro si ca poate crea o valuta ce sa eclipseze Dolarul, nu va sta pe malul lacului sa se uite cum Lebedele Negre lacome canta prohodul zonei Euro pentru ca nu vor sa dea din ‘penele” acumulate de-a lungul anilor 2000. Cantecul lacom al creditorilor privati dedicat inimei fragede Europe aproape unite are sanse mari sa ramana ultimul odata cu aceasta vara si fara acompaniament din partea orchestrei.