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  1. sarrafx

    Frayed at the edges

    The President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus, is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. In an interview yesterday he made some very valid points regarding the peripheral countries and those on the outside looking to enter. He called himself a “euro-realist,” saying he supports European integration while not embracing the shift towards “unification, centralization, harmonization, standardization” of the whole continent, including the single currency. The term Euro-Realist would be a very good term to apply to those who have the vision to turn this potentially catastrophic situation around. Realism is sadly lacking but that is the stock in trade of many politicians. The issues facing Europe do not span a single term in office for any of the leaders so they continue with short term fixes that do not hinder their chances of being re-elected. The Czech koruna was the world’s best performer against the euro in the decade ended December 2010, advancing 40%. Investor confidence in the Czech economy is reflected in the nation’s 10-year local-currency debt, which yields 2.4%, compared with 4.8% for similar-maturity Polish bonds and 7.2% for Hungary’s. I simply use that data to illustrate Mr. Klaus’ economic credentials. He feels Greece is a “victim of the monetary union” and it’s better for them to not to be in the Union. “Leaving would be a victory”. This simply illustrates the flaws in the plan and failure of the whole system. What applies to Greece certainly applies to the rest of the PIIGS. Looking at those countries with a commitment, however loose, to join the Euro, the view of those outside looking in is very interesting. Regional apprehension about the euro has grown with Europe’s debt crisis. While euro-zone nations purchase more than half of the exports of eastern European nations, seven of the 10 former communist countries to join the EU since 2004 have yet to adopt the currency. Poland, which three years ago shelved plans to join in 2013, deems the euro “completely unattractive,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in July. Hungary won’t adopt the currency before 2018, Premier Viktor Orban said in March. Bulgaria has indefinitely delayed plans to scrap the Lev, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov told the Wall Street Journal in a Sept. 4 interview. The Czech Republic has an open ended commitment to join the Euro and Mr. Klaus concluded by saying “We accepted with some reluctance the prepared conditions for our entry into the EU. We were aware of the fact that joining the euro system was one of the conditions. But we are quite happy with the fact that there was no timing. Perhaps in the year 2074 we can join the European Monetary Union as well,” he said “No one is pushing us.” What does this mean for the Euro? The conclusions I have drawn from this are here
  2. sarrafx

    What makes market?

    What makes a market? Yesterday’s blog and subsequent discussion reminded me a lot of how things used to be. It is important that we share ideas. If it takes someone to be provocative or controversial to get people talking then that is a good thing for us all. For me it is to understand the mentality and thinking of the participants in these markets but I am also trying to help to broaden the horizons of those who are new to FX or trading in general. Want to read more? Go to
  3. sarrafx

    FOMC & beyond The Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement was as dovish as it could possibly get. But then, surely it was acting in accordance with its mandate. The Committee explained that, "without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions." They outlined their new bond purchase program, pledged to do more if the labor market doesn't improve and emphasized that a highly accommodative monetary policy stance would be appropriate "for a considerable time" after the economic recovery strengthens. What the central bank is trying to tell us is that even if the recovery gains momentum, they won't be hurrying to unwind the stimulus until they are certain that the recovery is here to stay. As has been the case with QE1 and QE2 the Fed has swung into action in a massive way. The open-ended nature of QE3 came as a major surprise for the market and even before the news was properly digested; it was assumed that QE3 is bad for the dollar. While currency traders may be confused, the rally in equities and the drop in bond yields confirm that investors are pleased that Bernanke was able to shrug off politics and rev up the printing presses. At the end of the day, this will be bearish for the dollar when viewed in isolation. However (there is always a however!) this has been a monumental week for the markets yet we have seen the dollar fall by less than 1% since the package of measures was announced. We have to remember that the U.S. is not alone in having problems with its economy and currency markets trade on relative value of one currency to another. Japan, U.K. and, of course, Europe are all battling to regain traction in their economies and it is only history that will show how well Bernanke, Geither, Noda, Cameron, Osborne, Merkel, Dragi etc. have done in first containing, then growing out of the global economic slowdown. It should be noted that Japans’ Finance Minister killed himself a few days ago although the economic situation in Japan does not appear to have been the reason. Japan has a track record of intervening in currency markets to weaken the Yen when its strength threatens Japanese exports. They seemed to be coming to terms with its currency trading at much higher levels. Indeed 80 had become the new 100. Now we see the dollar as unable to sustain a rally above 80 and Japan will not want to see a gradual rise in the value of the Yen so intervention is clearly on the cards. Japan is not Switzerland however and the markets will gladly take on Japan if they intervene alone. It is unlikely in the extreme that the Federal Reserve or the ECB will join in concerted intervention so with a lack of policy options to weaken the currency, Japan will continue to suffer. The U.K. is, to a certain extent, becoming sidelined globally as its influence wanes. Being apart from the EU allows it to make its own policy mistakes although given where Europe is headed that is maybe no bad thing. Enough has been written about the woes of the EU and it is sure there will be more strong headwinds in the coming weeks/months. The major currencies will continue to move according to that days or weeks news but this week was extremely significant in that not only were events Euro positive, they were also dollar negative. There have only been two QE’s to compare to so it is very difficult to use them statistically to say what will happen to currencies following the third but the only certainty is that there will be volatility
  4. The up move is overdone and ditto in most of the spaces thus one can expect corrective move. More or less the pair achieved the closer to the max range of 1.6100-1.6130. Further gains would be tough to negotiate and thus would prefer a dollar rally. This is despite the fact that the dollar has broken the trend line in weekly and thus posted one of the bear pictures in the recent months. However most of the pairs are in critical junctures like Euro near the monthly trend line, Sterling near the channel high drawn and also near the weekly trend line. This ideally suggest corrective rally for the dollar before next move. Thus a) the influence of Sterling and Sterling alone b) influence of EURGBP c) the broad dollar action in that order is what is one should look into. The fulcrum has substantially moved from 1.5880 to 1.5960 and the upside focus is towards the 1.6100-50 area. Only break and close below 1.5960 can potentially threaten the up move. Intra-day shorts recommended as the RR favours within the ongoing dollar bearish bias. Strategy : Sell here and 40 Stop Loss:- 1.6208 Take Profit:- 1.5980
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