Criza Financiara in lume

[Barbones]

LEADERS’ STATEMENT

THE PITTSBURGH SUMMIT

 

in traducere libera:

 

 

1. We meet in the midst of a critical transition from crisis to recovery to turn the page on an era of irresponsibility and to adopt a set of policies, regulations and reforms to meet the needs of the 21st century global economy.

 

1. Ne-am trezit ca am furat prea mult si cand s-a spart buba am zis sa o lasam mai moale o perioada.

 

2. When we last gathered in April, we confronted the greatest challenge to the world economy in our generation.

 

2. Ne-am intalnit la o bere sa numaram banii si ne-am dat seama ca am facut atatia bani ca nimeni altii vreaodata.

 

3. Global output was contracting at pace not seen since the 1930s. Trade was plummeting. Jobs were disappearing rapidly. Our people worried that the world was on the edge of a depression.

 

3. Am castigat asa de mult ca i-am depasit pe aia din 30'. Banii veneau necontenit in conturile noastre. Oamenii nostri se intrebau daca mai era vreo banca de devalizat.

 

4. At that time, our countries agreed to do everything necessary to ensure recovery, to repair our financial systems and to maintain the global flow of capital.

 

4. Asa ca ne-am gandit sa facem totul sa castigam si pe trendul celalalt, sa pacalim sistemul financiar si sa mentinem rata profitului la aceleasi cote.

5. It worked.

 

5. A mers.

 

 

n.r. Orice asemanare cu fapte reale este o pura coinicidenta

Editat Septembrie 26, 2009 de Barbones

[oltciter]

:D

[sec]

Deprecierea dolarului risca sa afecteze revenirea economiilor, cu exceptia SUA, deoarece le scumpeste exporturile. Mai multi lideri importanti din statele G7 au dat asigurari, in ultima perioada, ca dolarul va ramane principala moneda de rezerva la nivel mondial.

 

Bloombiz : Finante : Volatilitatea cursului valutar dauneaza echilibrului economiei mondiale

[Barbones]

The Three Faces of Gold

The spectacular rise in gold, now hovering in record territory, has been fostered by three very different conceptions: gold as a trader’s choice, gold as a theoretical proof and gold as a historical metaphor.

 

For the believers in metaphor the ascent of the metal is an augury for the decline of the west; for the theoreticians it is the only secure defense against inflation; for the traders it is a momentum purchase not to be missed. All three groups are buying gold and as yet, none have been proven wrong.

 

If we translate these speculations into currency terms the traders promise a long position with better returns than any other investment. The theoreticians predict a global currency system ravaged by government inflation and a revolving cast of devalued national scripts. And the third intimates the ultimate end of the dollar as the world reserve currency presumably replaced by the yuan. All three foresee a continued fall in the value of the dollar.

 

 

 

The economic logic of the three groups of gold supporters is currently aligned and all are profiting from the rise in prices. But it would be remarkable if three such disparate scenarios remained in tune for long.

 

The east may indeed replace the west as the dominant global economic center but it will not do so in time for the ‘metaphorical Spenglerians’ (so named for Oswald Spengler who published The Decline of the West in 1918) to take profit on their investment. Even if true the western decline will be slow and erratic and these position takers will miss their profit levels waiting for the final collapse.

 

For the theoreticians or monetarists, the second group of ‘gold bugs’, inflation will suddenly spring out of the ground like the product of so many governmental dragons’ teeth. It is inevitable, increase the money supply and inflation follows.

 

However, with prices in decline in many industrial economies and unemployment at a new and much higher normal, it is hard to see firms extracting higher prices from consumers when cheaper international goods are so readily available. Whatever the theoretical prospect for inflation the current empirical evidence points the other way, toward deflation.

 

For the third group, the traders, theory and metaphor are irrelevent. The global financial system is under a soothing blanket of liquidity. The central bankers who have warmed the world with cash and who are now (we assume) very aware of the danger of prolonged cheap credit will (we assume), sooner or later, begin to draw back the protecting cover of liquidity. But the reabsorption of liquidity by the banks is wholly conditional on economic recovery. The most forthright of the world’s central bankers, Ben Bernanke of the American Federal Reserve has stated this over and over; there is no reason to doubt his word.

 

The gold buyers in this group believe the Chairman. Until the central bank begins to tighten credit, excess cash and the pursuit of trading profit determines the price of gold. It does not matter that the bankers say they will tighten credit when the proper time comes, what matters is action. Until the banks actually begin to raise rates and subtract liquidity, for them, gold is a solid buy.

 

Of the three scenarios the first, the ‘Spenglerian’ is the most impervious to evidence. It exists apart from factual verification or to put it another way, it is always possible to find evidence that the west is declining. It is just a matter of choosing the right statistics. In practical and emotional terms this group will always be long gold, though it is in unsettled times like ours that they do the most buying.

 

For the monetarists results depend largely on logic and economic equations. If so much liquidity is loosed on financial markets it must over time (duration unspecified) produce inflation. It is a simple monetary equation, a rising pile of cash chasing a much more slowly rising pile of goods and assets. Over time inflation is the end product. But inflation is not solely the product of a balanced equation between cash and goods. Firms must be able to raise prices and consumers must be able to pay those higher prices and those last factors are now very much absent.

 

Yet economic stagnation and inflation are not mutually exclusive. If returning American economic growth is not sufficient to reduce unemployment what are the chances that the Fed will commence raising rates regardless of the price index? And if on the other side of the world East Asian economic growth takes off and forces commodity and goods prices higher those prices will shortly be felt in the United States. Irrespective of what the US economy is doing the world’s markets can export inflation to the US.

 

What would prevent the price of oil from climbing as it did last summer if the Chinese, Indian and Brazilian economies accelerate and that third of the world creates its own economic cycle? Will the US be dragged by East Asia into robust recovery? Unknown. But the effect on the overextended American consumer and economy of $100 oil is not unfathomable. There is no certainty that one third of the world economy will be dynamic enough to force prices higher in the US. But if inflation comes in the US it will probably arrive from overseas and US domestic liquidity will have done little to create it.

 

For the Fed to raise rates and by default defend the dollar US economic growth will have to be robust enough to begin to take down the unemployment rate. This is an entirely unsure prospect.

 

US consumers are tapped there has been no sign in retails sales or consumer credit that the drivers of US growth have resumed their seats behind the wheel. The effect of a weak dollar on US exports may be pronounced. Shipments may increase enough to substantially reduce the trade deficit. But the US is not an export driven economy nor is its work force widely engaged in manufacturing. Exports may grow appreciably without it having any noticeable effect on American unemployment. Exports might look excellent to economists and free traders without US workers feeling any better or increasing their spending.

 

Of the three gold buying groups, the monetarists and the traders are most susceptible to Fed policy changes. But the traders are likely to act first. For them the earliest indication of a genuine change in Fed policy will be enough to abandon their long gold positions for profit. Monetarists are likely to wait until they are sure the Fed will act and then wait again until there is proof that the Fed has acted in time to prevent inflation.

 

And there we have the pernicious effect on the dollar. Until the Federal Reserve reestablishes the link between economic growth and interest rates the logic of the gold buyers is inescapable. Gold is not predicting a decline in the dollar or the inevitable advent of inflation but it is promising that without a vigilant Fed the first will continue and the second creep ever closer.

 

 

 

Joseph Trevisani

FX Solutions, LLC

Chief Market Analyst

Joe@fxsol.com

[Barbones]

The dollar declined versus the euro this week as minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 22-23 meeting showed some policy makers thought an increase in purchases of mortgage-backed securities might “reduce economic slack more quickly.” Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said this week that slow growth warrants very low interest rates for an “extended period.”

 

The central bank will release its Beige Book business survey on Oct. 21.

 

The euro’s appreciation against the dollar will be discussed at a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Luxembourg on Oct. 19, said Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the so-called eurogroup and also serves as his nation’s prime minister.

 

“We’ll tell you after the meeting if there’s something new to be said, a kind of extension to the normal poem,” Juncker said yesterday. “But I guess the poem will stay as the poem was,” adding that “we don’t like excessive volatility in exchange rates and disorderly movements.”

 

The dollar’s “trough” will be “slightly deeper” than previously estimated, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research report this week, forecasting it will depreciate to $1.55 versus the euro in three and six months before recovering to $1.35 in a year. That compares with previous forecasts of $1.45 in three and six months.

[tradelover]

Ce frumos arata acum treadul acesta, creat pe cand dolarul era in criza si euro urca ca fat frumos... cum s-a prabusit cursul in noiembrie, cum au incetat postarile pe tread... acum trebuie recitit de la inceput, doar ca de fiecare data cand gasiti dolar inlocuiti-l in mintea voastra cu euro, iar cand gasiti euro, inlocuiti-l cu dolar. De asemenea unde gasiti Bernanke inlocuiti su Trichet, si unde se vorbeste de californieni, newyorkezi, etc, inlocuiti cu greci, nemti, bla bla...

 

Pe isarescu lasati-l in pace, el e de neinlocuit...

Editat August 30, 2010 de tradelover

[Barbones]

Asta spune mult despre cat de mult suntem supusi emotiilor. Cele 2 - frica si speranta - fac trade ul prost

 

Euro este supus tirului informational cu un scop ca si dolarul la vremea lui. Daca mergi pe ideea ca este interventie atunci ai castigat pentru ca afli directia dar daca te oftici ca "iar astia umbla la butoane" poti sa te lasi de sportu' asta.

 

Spania cu siguranta trebuia descalificata si toti stiau asta doar ca a fost mai putin decat se asteptau - Speranta in sell la 1.20 a murit pe moment -

 

Urmeaza Portugalia, Italia. Ce faceti atunci, in munti cu bocceluta si provizii de conserve de carne pentru ca vine razboiul interplanetar ? FRICA

Interventia Chinei a dat aripi la DJ, S&P si majorelor impotriva dolarului. Iar speranta ca trecem pe crestere si criza europeana trece in planul 2.- SPERANTA

 

Frica de paritate - cui e frica ? cine isi face probleme? Noi traderi? De ce? in loc sa fim bucurosi ca avem directie si miscare ampla noi ne vaitam ca se duce Euro la garla si ca se rupe Europa-n doua. FRICA

 

Exact ce spune Tradelover: thread ul asta arata prin ce fel de emotii trecem in anumite momente de over-extrem.

 

Emotie.

 

 

PS. Pentru cei care nu inteleg cum sa citeasca stirile exista o sansa. Sa citeasca analizele pe trecut cele care povestesc ce s-a intamplat intr-o miscare si sa-si faca o idee daca analiza respectiva a avut corespondent cu realitatea.

Ca sa dau un exemplu: Acum cateva zile fluxul de stiri era plin de stiri legate de criza din europa dar si o stire scurta legata de Korea de Nord. La prima vedere parea mica dar nu era si nu spun acum de ce, ce a contat a fost faptul ca am tinut cont de ea. Sell Euro. La 1 ora dupa startul Londrei cand stocurile cadeau pe Europa si indexul Dolarului crestea au aparut si stirile puternice legate de Korea urmand sa ocupe prima pozitie in inportanta. In acel moment stirea Koreana la o ora dupa start Londra era deja cuprinsa in piata dar fluxul de stiri normal deabea incepea sa dezvolte subiectul.

 

In rezumat, Stirea trebuie analizata de tine, acea stire de 5 10 cuvine, seaca si nu sa citesti analiza ca e prea tarziu. Analiza este post event, post miscare.

 

Alt exemplu mai simplu:

 

Decizia Germaniei de a opri tranzactiile "SHORT NAKED"

 

Primul impuls vazut in piata aparut in secunda aparitiei stiri a fost speculat. Daca te-ai trezit la cateva ore dupa sau o zi dupa este ca si cum vrei sa te urci in tramvai dar tranvaiul este deja la capatul liniei si va face cale intoarsa si te va duce in directia opusa celei pe care o doresti tu. Deja dupa stirea cu "Naked" lucurile au evoluat si alte anunturi faceau miscarea, cu alte cuvinte trebuia sa intrebi vatmanul in ce directie va merge tranvaiul caci erai la capat de linie .

 

Stirile misca piata, nu analiza stiri.Analiza o faci la o cafea dupa ce ai prins stirea si ai speculat-o.

 

Am mai scris pe aici pe undeva: Reuters si-a facut campanie mare prin 2008 pe faptul ca a reusit sa dea o informatie mai repede cu 1 secunda decat concurenta. Asta spune foarte mult celui care vrea sa faca trade.

 

Degeaba ai o corectie la la 60 la suta daca acolo se intampla ceva puternic si din corectie, acel val se transforma in impuls.

 

Exemplu de ieri: 2365 era 50% din ultimul val de buy unde trebuia sa se inchida piata cu trend de buy intact.

Acolo stirea cu ratingul Spaniei a rupt trendul si a creat impuls de sell depasind ultimul Higher Low de la 2280.

 

Sa tranzactionezi orb de evenimente se poate dar sa trazactionezi informat la sange este ideal si costa.

Cum ar fi ca bancile sa arunce ordine in piata de buy Euro fara sprijin Fundamental sau fara sa-si creeze acest sprijin? Faliment scrie pe ele.

Editat Mai 29, 2010 de Barbones

[tradelover]

Va mai aduceti aminte de Jerome? Dati si voi un leu pentru ateneu? Parca-parca mai ieri va povesteam...

[tradelover]

Uite dom'le că mai citim şi lucruri bune despre România pe web! Imi place la nebunie, România pe locul al doilea la managementul de credite (inclusiv rambursare? asta nu stiu) in lume, precedată doar de Ucraina. Pe ultimele locuri, desigur, precum deja ştiţi: Grecia, Spania, Irlanda.

 

Top Performers (aparut acum 7 minute pe Bloomberg). Imi place cum spune "junk-rated Romania", tu-le muma lor în spate de imperialisti adică ratingul nostru ca ţară e aceea de "junk", "garbage", "gunoi", un loc unde nu se merită să investeşti banii... (pentru cine nu stie, google după "junk-rated", ori pe QFinance la dictionar).

 

Păi cum să nu le iei banii? Lasă că le arăt eu lor, numai să îmi vină semnalul ăla serios de intrare pe Euro, şi să vezi cum ii las pe cei de la FMI fără cămaşă pe ei... Grrr...

[tradelover]

Iar m-am damblagit si imi dau reply singur, nu prea stiam unde să pun linkul acesta, poate că la topicul cu analiză fundamentală ar fi fost mult mai potrivit, dar mie mi se pare că are mai multă legătură cu criza, şi in mod cert are legătură cu postul precedent, despre "top performesi", pentru că morala care se desprinde din toate aceste predictii este "investiti in valutele ţărilor emergente", ori pentru români "cumpăraţi lei!" (la mine ar fi să cumpăr bahti, haha, bahtul s-a intărit ca nebunul de doi ani incoace!). Se pare că astea vor fi cele mai bune afaceri pentru anul care ne stă în faţă.

 

Cititi predictiile de la linkul dat, se merită! Dacă doar vreo trei dintre cele 16 (sunt 18 dar prima si ultima pagina sunt "coperţile") se materializează, şi tot e naspa. Incercaţi să vedeţi dincolo de text, şi in loc să vă întrebaţi "şi ce dacă?!", întrebaţi-vă "care ar fi consecinţele pe piaţa valutară". De exemplu la ultima, pensionarea lui Dimon, prima chestie care iti vine in minte este "si ce dacă? ce mă interesează ăsta pe mine?", dar citind cu atentie, Carney spune "pentru că his job is over"... Well?