Technical Analysis - Major Pairs (EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD) and more...

[Tiberiu]

1) EUR/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/060bf2b09fe8d570d6b3e8a9bb49da23/500_2/image1.jpg

 

 

Eur/Usd is moving in a Downtrend on 4Hours chart, and Has found support at 1,264(last Week support pivot) after the Standard & Poors Rating Downgrades Roumours and Releases on Friday.

 

- Bullish Probability could retrace the price above 1,272(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with Daily Pivot-Monday) and reach 1,280(Weekly R1 confluence with 100 SMA and Downtrendline). This is an important Key-Level, which, if it would be broken, would take price further to 1.285(Resistence) and 1,297(Weekly R2, confluence with 200 SMA and 23,6 fibonacci retracement). This Key-Level holds the trend on 4 Hours chart.

 

- Bearish Probability without retracement would have to Break 1,264(support from last week) again and reach 1,2554(Weekly S1 Pivot) and further to 1,246(Weekly S2), before an important bullish retracement.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/60dbe8277bd5085959685e051bcecbdd/500_2/image359.jpg

 

2) GBP/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/969a9480575c1369ce71da992e656738/500_2/image305.jpg

 

 

The price has a Bearish Movement inside a Bearish Channel, and has found support at 1,527(last Week Support pivot and Main support on higher time frames). The 30,50,100 and 200 Simple moving Averages confirm the Downtrend.

 

- Bullish Probability for a retracement could Break 1,534(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with 23,6 Fibonacci and Channel resistence) and Move further to 1,539(Fibonacci 61,8 retracement) and 1,545(Weekly R1 Pivot),confluence with Downtrendline and 100SMA) or even further to 1,550(200SMA confluence with 38,2 Fibonacci Retracement). This Key-Level could show signals of a trend Reversal for the higher Time-Frames.

 

- Bearish Probability without retracement would break 1,527(Support from last Week) and move further to 1,519(Weekly S1 Pivot) and 1,508(Weekly S2 Pivot), before a Bullish retracement.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/f41d2b63fedf940254a76a2218189d22/500_2/image930.jpg

 

3) AUD/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/56579abdc39ac119f908bde53e193b30/500_2/image944.jpg

 

 

Price is Moving in an Uptrend confirmed by the 30,50,100 and 200 Simple Moving averages on 4 Hours Chart.

 

- Bullish continuation without retracement should break the Main downtrend line and reach 1,0389(Weekly R1 Pivot). It could retrace to 1,0267(Weekly Pivot) first, and then continue the Upside Move to Weekly R1. Furhter resistence at 1,0499(Weekly R2) could be the Key-Level for a Bearish Retracement.

 

- Bearish Retracement should break down 1,0267(Weekly Pivot confluence with 100SMA and Uptrend Line) and continue further to 1,0156(confluence between 200SMA and Weekly S1 Pivot). this Key-Level holds the Trend on 4Hours chart. Price could continue further to 1,0034(Weekly S2) and then turn around to north for a Bullish retracement and an Uptrend Resume.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/5255515d1228ec123732b62e959d94b8/500_2/image452.jpg

 

4) NZD/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/2ba34434803fe93157bf15eaa0bd88bf/500_2/image136.jpg

 

 

The trend is Long and confirmed by the Simple Moving Averages, 30,50,100,and 200 SMA on 4 hours chart.

 

- Bullish Probability could reach 0,8016(Weekly R1) , retrace to Uptrend Line around 0,789(50SMA confluence with Weekly Pivot) and then resume long to 0,81(Weekly R2). This level could be the Key for a retracement back to the Uptrend Line.

 

- Bearish Probability should have to Break 0,789(Key-Level confluence between Uptrend Line, Weekly Pivot and 50SMA) and fall further to 0,781(confluence between 100SMA and Weekly S1) to reach 0,774(200SMA) and 0,768(Weekly S2). From this Key area price should retrace Long.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/f9af6b2eeecd654b31a317461c8dcba9/500_2/image594.jpg

 

5) USD/CHF - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/26174a4dea90068d7b5a42658874b477/500_2/image975.jpg

 

 

USD/CHF price is moving inside an Uptrend Channel on 4 Hours Chart, confirmed by the 30,50,100 and 200 SMA.

 

- Bullish continuation without a Retracement could rise to 0,961(Weekly R1 Pivot) and move even further to 0,969(Uptrend Channel resistence confluence with Weekly R2 Pivot) before a Bearish Retracement.

 

- Bearish Probability could retrace to 0,951(Weekly Pivot confluence with 30 and 50SMA), break the level and move further South to 0,9437(100SMA confluence with Weekly S1 and Uptrend Channel Support Line).Under this Key-Level price could reach 0,938(200SMA) or even 0,933(Weekly S2). from this area price should retrace Long.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/129a72d18359b79da5c2d4add53967f0/500_2/image276.jpg

Editat Ianuarie 16, 2012 de Tiberiu

[Tiberiu]

7) USD/CAD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/253f395cfffea90b7d893c543ce6ff65/500_2/image697.jpg

 

 

Price is Moving Sideways on the 4 Hours Chart.

 

- Bearish Probability would break 1,015(Weekly S1 confluence with Uptrend Line) Pivot and move further to 1,005(Weekly S2 Pivot). From this level it could retrace Long back to the Uptrend Line - now resistence.

 

- Bullish Probability could rise to 1,023(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with 200SMA) and move further to 1,027(Downtrend Line) and 1,032(Weekly R1). This could be a False Breakout and price could Retrace Back down.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/fb6023154a2f4d003698f6f0a29f7cff/500_2/image411.jpg

 

 

Thank You for the Precious time it has taken You to read this Article.

I'm waiting for your Feed-Back (Positive or Negative) to also see Your view for the Major Pairs.

 

Disclaimer: Please Take responsability for Your own trading decisions.

 

To Your Success,

Doctortyby (Tiberiu)

[Tiberiu]

6) USD/JPY - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 15 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/1106b42075385d5e0a3b99511fc80116/500_2/image57.jpg

 

 

Price looks like it has resumed the Downtrend on the Daily and Weekly Time-Frames, Charts and started a Downtrend on 4 Hours chart, confirmed by the Simple Moving Averages. Price has already gone Bearish to 76,70(Weekly S1). But there is a substantial risk of a BOJ intervention against JPY, this week or the next weeks, corraborated with an intervention from the SNB against CHF. Imagine how we could predict the CHF/JPY pair with the two interventions in the same time.

 

- A Bearish Continuation could take price Lower to 76,48(Weekly S2), and move further this week sideways, inside a congestion area between Weekly S1 and Weekly s2, with a possibility of a False Bearish Breakout to 76,40.

 

- Bullish Action would break 76,89(Key-Level, confluence between Secondary downtrend Line, 50SMA and Weekly Pivot Line), move upside to 77,10(100SMA confluence with Weekly R1) and higher to 77,28-77,40 area (confluence between Main downtrend Line, 200SMA and Weekly R2).

 

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/85c6166e9713e2958c860104e2eebeb3/500_2/image905.jpg

 

To YOur Success,

 

Doctortyby

[Tiberiu]

Thank You for Your support. This week my Major Pairs' Analysis has had about 85-90% Accuracy for the Price Projection. As You know from my previous analysis I make projections based on Price Action and Technicals for both the Bullish and Bearish Probabilities. Check Out the Success Ratio on My Price Projections for Last Week and remember to Read My Analysis for Next Week (23-27th of January) tomorrow.

[Tiberiu]

1) Eur/Usd Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/7004cfd2aa027aeb92bb8606a1269ad6/500_2/image117.jpg

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/0dac6da952360e0d8984e36ee4f53e2a/500_2/image473.jpg

 

Last Week Eur/Usd price has moved on the Long side, reaching the 200SMA resistence on 4 Hours Chart, confluence with 23,6% Fibonacci retracement Bullish and Last Week's Weekly R2 Pivot - 1,299 Key-Level.

 

Bullish Probability could first retrace close to 1,283(confluence Between Weekly Main Pivot, 100SMA and 38,2% Fibonacci Retracement Bearish from last week), and then continue upside, breaking the 1,295(200SMA) and continue Long to 1,304(Weekly R1 Pivot) and further to 1,321(Key-Level, confluence between Weekly R1 Pivot and 38,2% Fibonacci Retracement Bullish). This could be a great level to Short for a Lower retracement, or a trend Reversal for the Short Term Uptrend.

 

Bearish Probability should have to break the 1,283(Key-Level confluence between Weekly Main Pivot, 100SMA and 38,2% Fibonacci Bearish) and Continue Further to 1,268(Weekly S1 Pivot confluence with Downtrend Line Support) or even 1,2625(Last Support from Last Week). If this Level will be Broken price could Reach 1,247(Weekly S2 Pivot) and Then Retrace Upside to the Last Support.

 

TO Your Success,

 

Doctortyby

[Tiberiu]

2) Gbp/Usd Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/59e21d497189e200719a4feb2f4ab79b/500_2/image363.jpg

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/ed49f71a8237d0e6737d2f0f4fe7dee4/500_2/image573.jpg

 

 

Bullish Probability could first retrace to 1,547(confluence between Weekly Main Pivot Line and 100SMA on 4 Hours Chart) and then Break Long 1,550(Key-Level confluence between 200SMA , Downtrend Line, 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement Bullish and Monthly Pivot) and Move upside to 1,565(confluence Between Main Downtrend Line and Weekly R1 Pivot). Further, Price could even reach 1,576(Weekly R2) before it would retrace Down back to the trendline.

 

Bearish Probability under 1,550(Key-Level, confluence between 200SMA, Downtrend Line, Monthly Main Pivot Line and 61,5 Fibonacci) could also Breach through 1,547(confluence between Weekly Pivot and 100SMA) and reach first target at 1,539(Key-Level, confluence between 38,2% Fibonacci, 50SMA and Main support on Higher Time Frames).The Bearish Continuation from this level could take price to 1,536(Weekly S1 Pivot), further to 1,533(Fibonacci Retracement 23,6%), and even reach 1,527(Main support). Price could Make a False Break-Out to 1,517(weekly S2 Pivot) and Retrace Back Long.

 

To Your Success,

 

Doctortyby

[Tiberiu]

3) Aud/Usd Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/3ea51a38a475832e79afd5a535cae518/500_2/image298.jpg

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/81b533e641ac7ed0bc1ce55679205e7d/500_2/image593.jpg

 

 

Aud/Usd is Moving in an Uptrend confirmed by the Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA on 4 hours Chart).

 

Bullish Probability. Price could rise to 1,055(Weekly R1 Pivot) and then retrace Back to 1,045(Monthly R1 Pivot) and 1,040(Weekly Main Pivot Line confluence with the Uptrend Line) . From here Price could resume the Uptrend and reach again 1,055(Weekly R1 Pivot) , break it and go further to 1,064(Weekly R2 Pivot) , and then retrace Back down.

 

Bearish Probability could break 1,040(Key-Level, confluence between Uptrend Line and Weekly Pivot), fall to 1,032(confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and 100SMA) and further to 1,024(confluence between 200SMa on 4 Hours Chart, Uptrend Line and Downtrend Line on Higher Time Frames). Price could form a False Break-out to 1,016(Weekly S2 Pivot) and then retrace Back up.

 

To your success,

 

Doctortyby

[Tiberiu]

4) Usd/Chf Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/7e07220bcee5fb891533d390a88eeac6/500_2/image849.jpg

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/a855a4c316c7016183dc08f8c488569b/500_2/image936.jpg

 

 

Bullish Probability. Price has found support at 0,9336(Monthly Main Pivot Line) and could Break upside 0,942(Weekly Main Pivot Line confluence with 200, 100 and 50 SMA on 4Hours Chart) and move further upside to 0,953(confluence between Weekly R1 and Downtrend Line). If it will Break 0,958(Uptrend Line now resistence) it could reach 0,968(Weekly R2) before retracing back down.

 

Bearish Probability should have to break 0,9336(Monthly Pivot) and 0,9300(Support) to reach 0,926(Weekly S1) and 0,915(weekly S2) before a bullish retracement or an Uptrend Continuation.

 

To your success,

 

Doctortyby

[Tiberiu]

5) Usd/Jpy Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 15 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/93a611f38e3f3d260c827bcd17e79b8f/500_2/image710.jpg

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/f4f9171c2e140fe178b0cc7b5a8bab55/500_2/image589.jpg

 

Usd/Jpy has resumed the Downtrend on Higher Time Frames and has retraced Last week back to the Main Downtrend Line.

 

Bullish Probability could Break the Downtrend Line around 77,345(Key-Level, confluence between weekly R1 and 200SMA on 4 HOurs Chart) and continue upside to 77,717(Weekly R2 Pivot) before a Bearish retracement back to the DownTrend Line.

 

Bearish Probability could Break 76,95(Weekly Main Pivot Line close confluence with 30,50 and 100SMA on 4Hours Chart) and then Continue to the next support at 76,575(Weekly S1 Pivot confluence with secondary Downtrend Line). From here we could see a Sideways Move between the two Pivots, with a possible False Breakout to 76,177(Weekly S2 Pivot).

 

To Your Success,

 

Doctortyby

[Tiberiu]

6) NZD/USD Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/634fe4c76fe0a3e966af3ca55ae82868/500_2/image88.jpg

 

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver/img/28f608be06dfaf76f50740ca082853f5/500_2/image854.jpg

 

 

NZD/USD Weekly View (23-27th of January),4 Hours chart:

 

- Bullish Probability, price could retrace back to 0,8015(Weekly Pivot confluence with 50 SMA and Uptrend Line) and then continue Upside to Break 0,811(Weekly R1 Pivot, confluence with Monthly R2 Pivot) and further to 0,818(Weekly R2 Pivot) before retracing Back Down to the Uptrend Line.

 

- Bearish Probability could break 0,8015(Key-Level confluence between Weekly Pivot, uptrend Line and 50 SMA) and 0,7949(confluence between Weekly S1,Monthly R1 and 100SMA) to reach 0,7851(confluence between Weekyl S2 and 200SMA) before retracing back Upside.

 

To Your Success,

 

Doctortyby