Euro la 1.40 in Iunie 2013.
ECB e in piata deci care este riscul sa pice Grecia sau alta tara din UE? cu siguranta mai mic decat ne asteptam
Japonia, big problem iar Jen ul slabeste cu scop.
Dolarul tare nu ajuta.
Unde risti in 2013 ? Care economie pare mai sigura dintre multe nesigure?
Parca Germania imi face mai mult cu ochiul si cu ea altele din UE.
Source: EUR/USD
Source: Discutii Generale
Rezervă "gigantică" de petrol şi gaze, găsită în Marea Neagră. Şeful OMV: Este o descoperire de importanţă globală
Source: Discutii Generale
Source: Discutii Generale
Apple pe un nou val!!!
De acum!!!!
Source: Charts
Sa bem. Am trecut de varful de anul trecut in sus. Mai rar in ultimii ani.
Ce sa fie ce sa fie....
Source: Charts
Dow de la 1900 pana azi. Interesant,nu? Bull Trend fara rasuflare.
Imi e mila de "ursi".
Source: Charts
Barack Obama‘s decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the presidential elections has cemented the future path of monetary policy under Ben Bernanke. After unveiling a fourth round of long-term asset purchases, or quantitative easing, and a new threshold-based guidance, the Federal Reserve has put itself on a path of unlimited purchases of Treasuries and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) until the unemployment rate falls. The FOMC’s natural rotation will only strengthen the Chairman’s control of the committee, while an Obama Presidency and a Democratic Senate guarantee a continuation of current policies, either under Bernanke or Vice Chair Janet Yellen.
Thus, interest rates will remain repressed through 2013, the U.S. dollar should depreciate moderately, and stock markets will continue to receive masses of liquidity.
Bernanke and several of his central bank colleagues around the world have unleashed a new era of monetary policy, marked by zero-bound nominal interest rates coupled with unprecedented and massive balance sheet expansion. In this post-financial crisis world, the Fed has taken a Keynesian edict and turned it on its head: instead of the government stepping in after a crisis to make up for the loss of aggregate demand from the private sector, it has fallen to central banks.
Through that process, the Federal Reserve has become the most important market participant, flooding markets with liquidity and owning more than a third of the Treasury market by the end of next year, according to Barclays’ economics team. The latest iteration of their asset purchases, or QE4, consists of $40 billion a month in RMBS purchases and $45 billion in unsterilized Treasury purchases, meaning the Fed’s balance sheet will grow at a rate of $85 billion until the Fed sees a substantial improvement in labor markets.
The Fed is set to turn even more bullish in 2013, as its natural rotation sees two centrists and Jeffery Lacker, head of the Richmond Fed and a lone dissenter in the FOMC, replaced. In their place will come Esther George of the Kansas City Fed (a moderate hawk, which means she’s mildly opposed to more accommodation) and James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed (who has the potential to be a dissenter, according to Barclays), along with ultra-doves Charles Evans and Eric Rosengren. Furthermore, Minneapolis Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota, a former dissenter, has quietly moved to a more dovish stance, adding further support for the Chairman.
One can’t blame Bernanke for trying to spark growth in an economy that has struggled to get off the ground since the 2008 financial implosion. A divided government has created artificial threats like the fiscal cliff, while the fear of fiscal unsustainability has increased calls for austerity. After interest rates fell to zero, Bernanke and the FOMC pushed down longer-term rates through asset purchases. Flattening the yield curve, the Fed has sought to ease credit conditions. The intention is to help homeowners re-finance mortgages at lower rates, allow consumers cheaper financing to buy cars, and give firms favorable borrowing rates.
Bernanke’s low rates have effectively “helped housing and the auto industry,” according to Raymond James’ chief economist Scott Brown. Automakers like General Motors and Ford have seen sales recover, while homebuilders like KB Home and Lennar have been on a tear this year. But the Fed’s ultra-accommodative stance has been “a mixed bag for banks.” Major names like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have access to cheap money, but their lending margins end up being squeezed by a narrower spread between long- and short-term rates.
Detractors of the Fed have argued it has distorted market action. And indeed it has, interest rates have been at record lows for years, with yields on 10-year Treasuries hovering near all-time lows. The issue of the Fed’s exit strategy has been raised on several occasions, as observers note a balance sheet approximating $4 trillion (if asset purchases continue through all of 2013) has to be unwound at some point. Goldman Sachs’ research team estimates that economic growth will pick up in the second half of 2013, sparking a “gradual but steady rise in bond yields” that takes real rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2.2% by the end of 2016 and 3.75% by 2016.
The Fed’s current strategy consists of both zero-bound rates and asset purchases. In their latest FOMC meeting, the committee agreed to set numerical thresholds for rate hikes, which are necessary but not sufficient conditions: the unemployment rate must fall to 6.5% or below, and the one-to-two year inflation projection should be at or below 2.5%. The Federal Reserve expects joblessness to fall to those levels by mid-2015; Barclays estimates unemployment to hit 7.5% by mid-year and 7% in the fourth quarter of 2013. They also expect the Fed to end its Treasury purchases by July, completing its RMBS program in December.
Bernanke’s term is set to expire in early 2014, and there’s speculation he may step down. The public opinion is divided; a report by Andrew Ross Sorkin indicated the Chairman isn’t too sure about a third term, while Raymond James’ Brown believes the Bernanke will stay around to finish the job. If he doesn’t stay on board, Vice Chair Yellen is expected to take the helm, Barclays’ team suggests, as the political balance will remain unchanged until the mid-term elections of late-2014.
The Fed has been one of the main players in global markets over the past few years. Since the financial crisis, Bernanke has taken a proactive role, first to avert a global meltdown and then to support a frail economic recovery. He’s won himself much praise, and as much criticism, but has held steady. Many questioned whether the Fed had the firepower. Bernanke always claimed he did, and he’s clearly put his money where his mouth is. The real question now is, will it finally work?
Source: Ce zic "Centralele" acum
Azi, dupa cunferinta din Ianuarie a ECB, pot sa spun ca targetul 1.45 este realizabil. Ca este Iunie, mai repede sau mai tarziu, nu stiu dar asta este directia.
Pe langa Euro, mai sunt sanse mari la Euro -Jen de multi pips Up in urmatoarele 2 3 luni.
Source: Ce zic "Centralele" acum
Ben Bernanke's Fingerprint Is Clearly Present In The Current Rally
Lance Roberts, Street Talk Live | Jan. 12, 2013, 5:46 AM
For the last four years the Federal Reserve has been actively engaged in supporting the stock market by suppressing interest rates to historically low levels, and injecting liquidity into the financial system, through a variety of different programs. The most notable, and widely discussed, of these programs has been the Large Scale Asset Purchase programs(see here and here) which have become known as Quantitative Easing or Q.E.
There are two important considerations revolving around Q.E. programs. First, the Fed is currently simultaneously involved in two Q.E. programs totaling $85 billion a month. Considering that we are more than 4 years into an "economic recovery"the need for such liquidity injections is very telling about the real strength of the economy. Secondly, each program has had a diminishing rate of return as shown in the combined chart below.
Source: Ce zic "Centralele" acum
- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, an expert on the Great Depression, understands the ravages of debt deflation and his every action has been to prevent it from occurring. It is one of the reasons why, on September 13th, 2012 the Fed included an explicit inflation target in its policy statement for the first time.
- Greater care must be taken in the future to ensure that our fiat based, fractional reserve system does not run amok. This is why regulators are demanding that banks raise capital, reduce their proprietary trading activities, and shift their business models closer to a utility-style model.
- The Fed is the only game in town – awaiting anxiously, and building a bridge to, a time when Washington will devise solutions to the many economic challenges facing the United States.
Source: Ce zic "Centralele" acum
imi pare bine ca se discuta serios de problema cu rr-ul, pt ca aici pot eu sa va dau date concrete,......
......Dupa care, in mod miraculos, piata incepe si revine la procentul de BE care merge la setarile tale. Am postari si un topic deschis cu statementuri din perioada aia, puteti sa le vedeti.
Read more: http://forum.vamist....0#ixzz2Jmnrh0Wn
Din experienta mea, am vazut ca piata are un "patern" de miscare repetitiv pe perioade din an si chiar pe luni. Mai exact, Iunie nu seamana cu August dar seamana cu Iunie trecut. Seamana, nu e identic. Asa ca, nici RR ul nu poate fi identic Iunie cu Septembrie.
Nu am sa fac acum analiza in detaliu, dar din ceea ce stiu ca este real si am tinut mai mult ca orice sa am in EA este chiar asta: MM pe perioade, lunare, trimetriale si chiar in intraweek ca sa zic asa. Luni nu e indentic cu Miercuri dar e foarte asemanator cu Lunea trecuta. Cine vrea, poate vedea cu usurinta ceea ce spun.
Un detaliu care cred ca poate fi de folos tuturor. RR ul este difererit pentru ca piata nu este identica dar este asemanatoare in zile si luni si trimeste. Luni cu Luni si Trimestrul 1 cu Trimestrul 1 si tot asa. PIata nu e identica in miscare pentru ca anul calendaristic face ca viata sa nu fie identica pe parcursul unui an. Piata este rezultatul actiunii omului din spatele butonului numit azi EA. Asteptarile si dorintele sunt diferite. Intr-un fel vrei in Septembrie si altfel vrei in Decembrie, sau poate nu vrei deloc, nu?
EA ul meu se numeste SUN_EA. Cred ca spune tot. (Nu-f fac reclama caci nu-l vand si nici nu-l dau la testat
si nici nu vreau ca cineva sa ma caute pe privat sa ma intrebe ceva, orice)
Un detaliu ce l-am aflat dupa ani de teste si care functioneaza. Modificarea RR ului si implicit a MM ului in functie de zi, luna si perioada din an.
Mai mult, azi suntem intr-o piata de tip "sideways", adica range si se para ca sansele sunt sa mai tine inca 8 10 ani. Caracteristica ei este vinde sus, cumpara jos, tip antitrend. Cand aflam ca suntem pe trend? Nu stiu dar mai e pana atunci.( Aici ma refer la perioade lungi , nu TF daily sau Montly)
Statistica, caci pentru mine e baza de plecare in trade, spune ca poti sa ai 80% traduri pierdute dar sa fii pe profit, si aici ma refer la 100% traduri si nu Risk. Una e riscul/trade si alte e numar traduri luate in total.
EX: Intru luni de 5 ori si pierd dar intru cu 0.01 si intru Joi 1 data si castig 5:1 cu 1 trade cu risk de 10X. Statistica tradeurilor este inutila in a-ti face o parere. Statistica profitului este baza.
Tot din experienta zic ca 80% din miscare este Range iar restul Trend. Daca reusesti sa identifici Cand incepe una si se termina alta atunci se modifica si RR un si MM ul.
Cateva detalii:
Luni - Varza, Marti, parca mai merge, Miercuri, actiune, Joi- ori continuam ori schimbam trendul, Vineri - daca nu e NFP, nimic nu e.
Ianuarie, - Bani Multi, Februarie, - Ia sa vedem pe ce mergem de maine, Mai - Sell in May and go away - Iunie, inchidem jumatea anului, Iulie - Mare, Soare - August, tot la mare dar...care e directia totusi - Sept - eeee... incepem sa ne miscam, Oct - Acum e acum - Dec - Luna Cadourilor, familie, bunatati. gata cu munca.
Numai daca te gandesti la ce am spus mai sus si deschizi platforma si te uiti la S&P, Dow, DAX, Euro, sau Dolar ai sa vezi ca Domnia Sa Zamoxes are de aface mult cu conturile noastre daca nu tinem cont de el.
Acum, ca e mai clar ca ce urmeaza e neclar, QE2 adica Quantitative Easing partea a doua se pare ca are sanse mari sa intre in piata saptamana viitoare .
Marti la FOMC aflam cat si cum, cand si mai ales daca.
Scopul este prevenirea deflatiei in toata lumea care ar face cresterea economica sa fie cu pasi prea mici iar ca QE2 sa fie eficient ar trebui sa avem si o reactie mai agresiva in piata de comoditati. Deocamadata piata a reactionat deja la zonul aparitiei QE2 iar reactiile pe SP, DOW, Dolar Index sau AUD deja arata directia.
Peste toate, In SUA avem in curand alegeri. Obama simte presiunea si logica mea spune ca daca nu va avea un dolar slab pentru semestrele 3 si 4 nu prea mai are sanse sa opreasca caderea Democratilor. Pe zi ce trece mi se pare ca Democratii sunt defapt partidul de "sacrificiu" unde Republicanii fac "prostii" si democratii "spala rusinea".
La Euro pe mantli arata ca pinul functioneaza iar pe uicli se pare ca terminam peste 38fib masurat pe cadearea din decembrie, miscare care ma duce cu gandul la 50fib.
AUD respecta fundamentul si il astept la dublu top all time high.
1.35 in Octombrie sau targetul anului 1.38?
Ben, sa traiesti ca te-ai tinut de cuvant.
Astept elicopterul.
Several Fed officials warned of reducing or ending QE too soon, but several on the FOMC said the Fed should be prepared to vary the pace of QE, because tapering the pace of the asset purchase program may become necessary.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/january-fomc-minutes-2013-2#ixzz2LTEnQN6h
Un pic mai bine pentru Dolar. Cat? greu de zis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipJTqCbETog&feature=player_embedded#at=59
Misto e cine a facut spotul asta.
Starting in the 1950s, Europe’s leaders edged closer. First came the European coal and steel cartel. Then the Common Market. Then the European Union, which now includes 27 states. Then the disappearance of many border controls inside the EU. Finally, the euro. Each step of the way the nations of Europe gave up a little more sovereignty, deferring to EU officials in Brussels on regulatory issues, honoring the rulings of the top EU court, and — with some exceptions such as Britain — yielding the power to set interest rates to the European Central Bank.
One thing no one surrendered: power over the national budget. Fiscal union, where a central authority has final say over each country’s spending and taxing, was never a possibility. Politically at least, it was a move too far: To control the budget was to control the nation itself.
A European finance ministry?
Trichet, one of the architects of the Maastricht Treaty that established the euro, said in June that he favored a European finance ministry and veto powers for the EU over national budgets. “Would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency, and a single central bank, to envisage a ministry of finance of the union?” he asked in a speech in Aachen, Germany.
After six weeks of protests, the Middle East turmoil has now spread to a major oil producer for the first time, causing the price of Brent crude to hit $105 per barrel—a level not seen since September 2008. That price reaction may exaggerate Libya's importance, but it reflects growing concerns the crisis may spread to other producers
European shares fell sharply Monday, led by the financial sector, as investors nervously watched the political unrest spreading across the Mideast and North Africa.
De la WSJ.com
Cumulat cu inflatia maricica in UE sansele ca ECB sa ridice dobanda sunt mai mari ca acum 1 saptamana. Daca bondurile pe Portigalia isi pastreaza nivelul aproximativ, sentimentul se poate schimba pe zona Euro de la frica de default la specula pe cresterea ratei dobanzii,
Azi Germania a surprins din nou pozitiv iar restul datelor sunt incurajatoare.
Daca 1.40 respinge saptamana asta si saptamana viitoare avem crestere de dobanda la Euro, targetul este rezonabil.
Cine nu este de acord cu predictia este binevenit cu contraargumente.
Infuzia de capital cu dobanda zero a inceput sa aiba efectele scontate. In Iunie se terminta QE2 si nu se stie daca Ben va face vreo miscare sa inceapa sa scoata banii bagati.
Ieri Indexul Dolarului a inchis saptamana sub 75. Sansele ca dolarul de acum si pana in Noiembrie sa tot cada sunt mai mari de 50%. asta facand AUD ul probabil cel mai interesant pentru al detine urmat de Euro.
Interventia G7 la Jen este o reusita. Dupa mine Jenul va pierde mult teren in fata tuturor majorelor dar in special in fata AUD si Euro.
Daca luam in calcul si inflatia din UK cu o eventuala crestere a dobanzii luna viitoare sau pana in Iunie GJ devine extrem de interesant pentru LONG timp indelungat.
1.5000 la Euro nu numai ca va fi atins dar atata timp cat Petrolul isi mentine directia nu vad cum Euro s-ar mai intoarce la 1.2 decat daca face default Germania .
Probabil ca in vara va avea loc o corectie dar trendul Short pe Dolar este stabilit.
Raman Short Dolar contra Euro si Short Jen contra Euro si Lira.
The euro advanced versus the dollar for a fifth day as traders increased bets the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy and Greece progressed in staving off a default.
The euro headed for a weekly advance against 12 of its 16 major peers after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval to implement an austerity plan needed to keep aid flowing to his nation. The Dollar Index was was set for its biggest weekly decline since January before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturing growth slowed in May. The New Zealand dollar weakened on dimmer prospects for exports after a Chinese manufacturing index fell.
Asa cum era previzionat, cei mai muncitori cetateni ai Europei Unite au aratat ca se poate iar Mister Trichet a aratat ca experienta conteaza daca este dublata si de inteligenta.
"Criza" paleste cu fiecare pip ce-l inghite Euro pe buy iar micul speculator isi roade unghiile acum caci tinta lui, paritatea, mai are de asteptat.
Mai avem un (hip) Hop cu GDP ul american, cu somerii de pe ambele continente si inchidem luna pe cel mai frumos patern de reversal din istoria Euro.
Euro - 1.3150 in vizor
Aud - 0.9250 tinta
Lira - 5550 TP atins dar fara mine
Daca e sa ma iau dupa "Stress Test" fara sa-l disec, ca Grecia mai ia niste banuti de la Fond ca a fost cuminte, ca Ungaria primeste amenintari dar inca nimic concret, ca economia UK creste si Q3 ul va fi tot in sus, chiar daca increderea insularului paleste, as zice ca trenul Euro a ajuns in penultima statie inainte de capat.
La cei care ne-au furat sportul nostru national adica Oina, S&P a inchis perfect iar Dow, daca inchide luna peste 10325 il putem vedea la toamna la 12500 fara griji.
In saptamana ce vine, Germania marti de dimineata va da tonul saptamanii, BP are si el "stress testul" lui, (greu test) si sa sper ca somajul va ramane la 10 pe Europa pentru ca daca si yankeii si-au mai gasit de munca intre timp joi si vineri teminam sus, cel putin la 1.3150.
Daca e asa, paternul de reversal s-a terminat si putem pleca in vacanta in August fara griji ca sa luam trendul sau trenul din Septembrie pentru vreo 800 de pipsi pe buy. La Euro.
1.2565 - 80 este suportul si 1.33 este targetul imediat.
Daca e invers trecem pe incalzire cu lemne.
Va doresc o saptamana fierbinte.
intre 3750 si 38 e greu asa ca astept inchiderea de luna,
Dupa NFP poate aflam directia.
Pana atunci prima miscare si-a atins tinta.
Chiar daca QE2 nu va fi mare ca volum in bani si chiar daca si restul bancilor vor veni si ele cu suplimente, Euro este previzionat in ambele directii.
Poate dupa saptamana asta aflam mai multe.
Deja m-am plictisit de QE2.
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