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Ultima versiune si descrierea sa: http://codebase.mql4.com/1040
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E pierdere de timp!
Cine vrea sa se convinga poate sa mearga la seminar. eu am fost si m-am lamurit.
Ar fi bine sa mai mearga inca vreo cateva persoane, care mai sunt in tema si sa vedem la ce concluzie ajungem la final.
Dupa contul demo am asteptat vreo doua saptamini si de abia la o saptamina dupa ce am fost la seminar mi-au dat access la platforma. Patforma e super fistichie. Costuri de intretinere a contului: la un cont de 1000eur platesti un comision de 10e daca nu tranzactionezi deloc intro luna (!!!), nu permite loturi subunitare (decat de la 10.000 unitati). Spreduri si comisioane mult mai mari decat la brokerii cu care suntem obisnuiti. Despre stabilitatea platformei live nu pot sa spun nimic (in conditii de volatilitate ridicata), dar cea demo seamana identic cu MarketMaker de la CMCMarkets http://www.cmcmarkets.com.
Mai vezi si threadul lui $tefan "StartradeXT de la Vanguard ".
Si inca ceva: daca treci prin toate materialele de pe forum vei invata sa tranzactionezi pietele globale muuuult mai bine decat la seminar la Vanguard.
Nu am nimic Vanguardu' sau cu cine vrea sa incerce, asta e parerea mea.
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Ideea pentru care am deschis aceast thread ar fi cam asa:
1. exista mari institutii financiare care traiesc din diferenta de dobanda
2. cursul la aceste perechi (de ex: gbp/jpy) creste si este intretinut
3. interesul meu ca trader nu este sa castig din dobanda ci sa profit din trend
4. dobanda mai amoritzeaza unele costuri (spread, scaderi de curs, gafe ...).
5. in range castig din dobanda, pe trend castig din cresterea cursului.
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La www.marketocracy.com puteti administra propriul fond demo.
Daca timp de 3 ani obtineti rezultate foarte bune, fondatorul site-ului va ofera un post de fund manager.
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Am deschis in urma cu cateva zile niste pozitii la migfx pe un cont demo.
In atas e situatia cu swapurile. In unele cazuri e semnificativa.
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@tradelover
Ai perfecta dreptate la toate observatiile. Cred ca nu m-am exprimat foarte clar si de aici au iesit interpretarile. Sorry pentru 'mair'.
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45 Ways to Avoid Losing Money Trading FOREX
Cele mai de jos nu imi apartin, dar consider ca sunt utile. Un puct de vedere.
Le gasiti la www.forex-45tips.blogspot.com
1) Knowledge Deficiency – Most new FOREX traders don’t take the time to learn what drives currency rates (primarily fundamentals). When news or a statement is due out they must close out their positions and sit out the best trading opportunities. They are taught to only trade after the market calms down. So essentially they miss the whole move and then trade the random noise that follows a fundamental price move. Just think for a moment about technically trading the aftermath of a price move; there is no potential. FOREX TRADING
2) Overtrading - Trading often with tight stops and tiny profit targets will only make the broker rich. The desire to “just” make a few hundred dollars a day by locking in tiny profits whenever possible is a losing strategy. FOREX MARKETING
3) Over leveraged - Leverage is a two way street. The brokers want you to use high leverage because that means more spread income because your position size determines the amount of spread income; the bigger
the position the more spread income the broker earns. FOREX TIPS
4) Relying on Others – Real traders play a lone hand; they make their own decisions and don’t rely on others to make their trading decisions for them; there is no halfway; either trade for yourself or have someone else trade for you. FOREX CHARTS
5) Stop Losses – Putting tight stop losses with retail brokers is a recipe for disaster. When you put on a trade commit to a reasonable stop loss limit that allows your trade a fair chance to develop. FOREX ONLINE
6) Demo Accounts – Broker demo accounts are a shill game of sorts; they’re not as time sensitive as real accounts and therefore give the impression that time sensitive trading systems, such as short-term moving average crossovers can be consistently profitably traded; once you start dealing with real money reality is quick to set in. FOREX SOFTWARE
7) Trading During Off Hours – Bank FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds have a huge advantage
during off hours; they can push the currencies around when no volume is going through and the end game is
new traders get fleeced trying to trade signals. There is only one signal during off hours – stay out.
8) Trading a Currency, Not a Pair – Being right about a currency is half a trade; success or failure depends upon being right about the second currency that makes up the pair.
9) No Trading Plan - Make money is not a trading plan. A trading plan is a blueprint for trading success; it spells out what you see your edge as being; if you don’t have an edge, you don’t have a plan, and likely you’ll wind up a statistic (part of the 95% of new traders that lose and quit).
10) Trading Against Prevailing Trend – There is a huge difference between buying cheaply on the way
down and buying cheaply. What was a low price quickly becomes a high price when you’re trading against the
trend.
11) Exiting Trades Poorly – If you put on a trade and it’s not working make sure you exit properly; don’t compound the damage. If you’re in a winning trade don’t talk yourself out of the position because you’re bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get use to it.
12) Trading Too Short-term – If you’re profit target is less than 20 points don’t do the trade; the spread you pay to enter the trade makes the odds way against you when you go for these tiny profits.
13) Picking Tops and Bottoms - Looking for bargains works well at the supermarket but not trading foreign exchange; try to trade in the direction the price is going and you’re results will improve.
14) Being Too Smart – The most successful traders I know are high school graduates. They keep it simple and don’t look beyond the obvious; their results are excellent.
15) Not Trading Around News Time – Most of the big moves occur around news time. The volume is high and the moves are real; there is no better time to trade fundamentally or technically than when news is released; this is when the real money adjusts their positions and as a result the prices changes reflect serious currency flow (compared to quiet times when Bank traders rule the market with their customer order flow).
16) Ignore Technical Condition – Determining whether the market is over-extended long or over-extended short is a key determinant of near time price action. Spike moves often occur when the market is all one way.
17) Emotional Trading – When you don’t pre-plan you’re trades essentially it’s a thought and not an idea; thoughts are emotions and a very poor basis for doing trades. Do people generally say intelligent things when they are upset and emotional; I don’t think so.
18) Lack of Confidence – Confidence only comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it’s very difficult to gain true confidence; the trick is don’t go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade.
19) Lack of Courage to Take a Loss – There is nothing macho or gutsy about riding a loss, just stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Getting married to a bad position ruins lots of traders. The thing to remember is the market does crazy things often so don’t get married to any one trade; it’s just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; rather it’s monthly and annual performance that defines a good trader.
20) Not Focusing on the Trade at Hand – There is no room for fantasizing in successful trading. Counting up and mentally spending profits you haven’t made yet is mental masturbation and does you no good. Same with worrying about a loss that hasn’t happened yet. Focus on your position and have a reasonable stop loss in place at the time you do the trade. Then be like an astronaut – sit back and enjoy the ride; no sense worrying because you have no real control; the market will do what it wants to do.
21) Interpreting FOREX News Incorrectly – Fact is the press only has a very superficial understanding of the news they are reporting and tend to focus on one element and miss the point. Learn to read the source documents and understand it for real.
22) Lucky or Good – Your account balance changes don’t tell you the whole story about your trading; fact is if your taking a lot of risk and making money you will eventually crash and burn. Look at the individual trade details; focus on your big loses and losing streaks. Ask yourself this; if I had a couple of consecutive losing streaks or a couple of consecutive big loses, how would my account balance look. Generally, traders making money without big daily loses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance. The others are accidents waiting to happen.
23) Too Many Charity Trades – When you make money on a well thought out trade don’t give back half on a whim; invest your profits from good trades on the next good trade.
24) Courage Under Fire – When a policeman breaks down the door to a drug dealers apartment he is scared but he does it anyway. When a fireman climbs onto the roof of a burning building he is scared but does it anyway; and gets the job done. Same with trading; it’s ok to be scared but you have to pull the trigger; no trigger – no trades – no profits – no trader.
25) Quality Trading Time – I suggest 3 hours a day of quality, focused trading time; that’s about all your brain allows. When your trading being 100% focused; half way is bullshit’ it doesn’t work. Don’t even think that time spent in front of the computer watching the rates has any correlation to profitability; it doesn’t. Spend less time but when your trading be 100% focused on trading.
26) Rationalizing – Killer. Absolute Killer. Put your trade on and let it run. If it hits your reasonable pre-determined stop your out. Think of yourself as a prizefighter; you just got knocked out. Moving your stop is like getting up after being crushed with a knockout blow; it’s pointless; things will only get worse. Don’t ignore the obvious; your wrong – get out. Come back the next day and try again. A small loss will not hurt you; a catastrophic loss will.
27) Mixing Apples and Oranges – Have you ever done this; you see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it “hasn’t moved yet”. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because its already overbought or some 4:30am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges; if EURUSD looks bid buy EURUSD.
28) Avoiding the Hard Trades – Bank FX traders have an axiom; the harder the trade is to do the better the trade. This I learned from experience; when I needed to buy EURUSD and it was hard to get them that’s when it’s necessary to pay up and get the business done. When it’s easy to get them then sit back and wait for better levels. So if your trying to get into a trade or more importantly get out of a trade don’t putz around for a few points; get your business done.
29) Too Much Detail – If your trading more than 2 indicators then you need to clean house. Having many indicators stifles trading and finds reasons not to trade. A setup and a trigger is all you need.
30) Giving Up Too Easy – Your first trade of the day may not be your best but certainly it’s no reason to quit. I have a preset daily trading limit and I use it; you can’t make money by making excuses; getting trades wrong is natural and should be expected.
31) Jumping the Gun – Don’t be penny wise and dollar foolish; wait for your trade signal to be clear; put on your trade and give it a decent size stop loss so that you don’t get knocked out by random noise. Do trades don’t’ buy lottery tickets (extremely tight stops).
32) Afraid to Take a Loss - trading is not personal; it’s business. Don’t think that a poor trade is a reflection on you. It could be your just ahead of your time or a commercial order hits the market and temporarily creates a small unexpected move. Again, place your stop beforehand and NEVER increase your pre-determined risk; if it’s going bad it will probably get worse; I think that’s Einstein “in motion stays in motion…”
33) Over-Relying on Risk Reward – There is zero advantage in risk reward; if you put a 20 point stop and a 60 point profit your chances are probably 3-1 that you will lose; actually with the spread its more like 4 to 1 (from entry point if it goes down 17 points you lose or up 63 you win; 17/63 is close to 4-1).
34) Trading for Wrong Reasons – Because the EURUSD is going up is not in itself a reason to buy. Buying EURUSD because its not moving so little risk is even worse; you’re paying the toll (spread) without even a hint that you will get a directional move. If your bored don’t trade; the reason your bored is there is no trade to do in the first place.
35) Rumors – Rumors are rumors almost 100% of the time; think about where in the motion you heard the rumor; if EURUSD is up 50 points in last 15 minutes and the rumor is dollar negative, well then you missed it. Whenever you trades determine where in the motion you are entering.
36) Trading Short-term Moving Average Crossovers – This is the money sucker of the century. When the shorter term moving average cross the longer term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. For the life of me I cannot understand why this is bullish or bearish. Easy to set up on software, complete with lights, bells and whistles, and good for the seller getting thousands for the software but in terms of creating profit it’s a zero.
37) Stochastic – Another money sucker. Personally I think this indicator is used backwards; when it first signals an overdone condition that’s when I think the big spike in the “overdone” currency pair occurs. To be overbought means strong and oversold means weak. Try buying on the first sign of overbought and selling on the first sign of oversold; you’ll be with the trend and likely have identified a move with plenty of juice left. So if %k and %d are both crossing 80; buy! (Same on sell side; sell at 20)
38) Wrong Broker – A lot of FOREX brokers are horrible; get a good one. Read forums and chats in several different places to get an unbiased opinion.
39) Simulated Results – Watch out for “black box” systems; these are trading systems that don’t divulge how the trade signals are generated. Great majority of them are absolute garbage. They show you a track record of extraordinary results but think about it; if you could build a trading system with half a dozen filters using the benefit of hindsight, couldn’t you too come up with a great system. Of course going forward is an entirely different story. High-speed number crunching capabilities allows for building great hindsight trading systems; BEWARE.
40) Inconsistency – Every business (FOREX trading included) requires a business plan (trading plan). Unless you have taken the time to write down a set of rules that you can and will follow, it’s likely your trading will remain unfocused and directionless. Make a plan, have rules, follow them set goals that are realistic and you will achieve them.
41) Master of None – Focus on one currency for technical trading; each currency has a unique way of trading and unless you get intimate with it you will never truly understand its underlying idiosyncrasies. Don’t spread yourself too thin – focus – master one currency at a time.
42) Thinking Long Term – Don’t do it. Stay in the moment. Especially if you’re a day trader. It doesn’t matter what happens next week or next month, if your trading with 30 to 50 point stops restrict your thought process to what’s happening right now. That is not to stay the long-term trend is not important; it is to say the long-term trend will not always help you when your trading a significantly shorter time frame.
43) Overconfidence – Trading is not easy; statistics show 95% failure rate. If your doing well don’t take your success for granted; always be on the lookout for ways to improve what you’re doing.
44) Getting Pumped Up – The trick is to maintain an even keel; when you are in a trade you want to think exactly as you would if you didn’t have a trade on. To do this requires a relaxed disposition; this is not a football game; don’t get psyched up; relax and try to enjoy it.
45) Staying in the Game – I don’t recommend demo trading because traders learn bad habits when trading with play money. I also don’t think “letting it all hang out” right away is wise either. Start off doing trades and taking risk that is relatively small but still makes a difference to you if you win or lose; about a quarter to a third of what you expect to reach as your trading matures is reasonable.
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Pe ici, pe colo, mai rar sau mai des, se mai intalnesc "traderi" intre ei.
Una dintre intrebarile comune este: 'care perechi le joci?', 'pe ce pariezi?'.
Sau marea masa a populatiei ce gandeste depre tine: 'joci la bursa'.
In mass-media: jucatorii de la bursa (putem asimila si FOREX-ul).
Personal, nu pot concepe termenul de 'a juca la bursa', de jucator.
Jucatorul, este jucator la cazinou, este la voia intamplarii.
EU MA CONSIDER UN TRADER!
Vreau sa fiu un trader. Sa gandesc ca un trader, nu ca un jucator.
Cine se joaca, pierde!
Pierderea incepe chiar din momentul in care iti vine in minte termenul de joaca!
Nici nu mai are rost sa deschizi o tranzactie. Este deja pierduta!
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@tradelover
1. Trebuie sa mergi numai in directia trendului fundamental.
Astfel profiti din cresterea cursului si din dobanzi.
Cat timp piata este in range (70-80% din timp) acumulezi dobanzi.
2. Factorii fundamentali sunt punctul slab in testarea oricarui sistem.
3. Carry trade presupune un trend indelungat (ani).
5 min pe zi e suficient sa observi daca cursul a scazut la limita canalului in care acesta fluctueaza si sa introduci un ordin pe piata. E suficient sa deschizi si sa o mai verifici din cand in cand.
4. MT4, intodeauna, cand ai ordine in piata, iti roade 'un pic' din pozitii cand intri sau cand iesi.
Asa este conceput!
5. NZD este artificial ridicat cam cu 30-40% tocmai din cauza ratei mair a dobanzii.
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UN COSMAR!!!
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Extras din: The Yen "Carry Trade" Unraveling Saga: A Deja-Vu Nightmare and a Cautionary Tale (http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/176117)
Let me tell you a cautionary tale for 2007. The Yen has been weak and has kept on depreciating sharply for the last few months relative to the US dollar. Still mixed and weak economic data are coming out of Japan and short term interest rates there are still 0.25% while they were closer to 5.5% in the US; so the yen is weak and weakening. Massive amounts of carry trades using the yen – and the swiss franc – as the funding currency have been going on for months now leading to sharp increases in leveraged positions by investors who have been shorting the yen to play the carry trade bet.
Then, the yen starts to appreciate again – by a sharp 9% in one month - when a small emerging market economy defaults (Ecuador soon?) and a large hedge fund goes belly up (another Amaranth?). Then, suddenly one piece of good news comes out of Japan (a growth pickup?) and in a matter of 72 hours the yen appreciates by 12%. Then a major global macro hedge fund loses $2 billion dollars in 48 hours on the yen unraveling and decides to close shop; another one loses billions too and decides to restructure its operations. Carry trades unravel rapidly, margin calls are triggered, levered positions go belly up and the entire financial system goes into a seizure. Then the Fed is forced to cut the Fed Funds rate in between meetings by 75bps (in spite of still good US GDP growth) in order to avoid a financial meltdown, a collapse of US financial markets and a global recession.
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Cand marile institutii finaciare simt ca incep sa piarda bani isi inchid pozitiile. Marcheaza profitul si arunca pe piata cateva tone de yeni, apare o inflatie de yeni, cursul scade masiv. Urmeaza alte inchideri de pozitiile si urmeaza un boom in lant: in cateva zile piata scade exponential pina cand nu mai vinde nimeni, cursul se stabilizeaza.
Povestea o ia de la capat!
Iar imprumuta yeni, cumpara dolari/lire si ii depun in alte banci, incaseaza dobanzi, sustin cresterea cursului artificial si tot asa!
Cine profita!
Bineinteles ca nu traderii de rand care se zbat sa puna mina pe 100 de pipsi!!!
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Cred ca nu e nici un StartradeXT de la Vanguard!
Mai degraba e MarketMaker de la CMCMarkets www.cmcmarkets.com.
Cat despre profesionistii care fac prezentarea produsului m-am lamurit live.
Multe persoane de pe acest forum stiu cu mult mai mult ce inseamna FOREX-ul decat profii de la Vanguard!
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STATI CU OCHII PE JPY pe 28.05.2007
Sarbatori mari la americani si in vestul Europei.
Un articol interesant: Will Improved Japanese Consumption Turn the Carry Trade?
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BRL/JPY & BRL/CHR
BRL - realul brazilian - e pe cale sa devina cea mai puternica modeda din lume:
- Brazilian Real The Strongest Currency in the World Today: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article945.html
- The Dollar Does The Samba : http://www.escapeartist.com/efam/68/Investing_In_Brazil.html
Nu am gasit nici un broker sa ofere BRL/JPY sau BRL/CHF. Probabil ca exista prin America de Sud, dar nu stim despre ei.
BRL/USD este oferita la www.forex.ch
Intrebare stupida: de ce nu ofera brokerii BRL spre tranzactionare?
Vor raspunde ca nu au lichiditate. Si ii cred pe cuvant!
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TRY/CNY
Nu este oferita direct spre tranzactionare. Creste.
Facem o pereche sintetica: buy USD/CNY, sell USD/TRY.
CNY are cea mai buna dobanda: 0.7.
USD/CNY - trendul perfect. Chiar daca scade.
Sa facem niste socoteli:
BUY USD/CNY = 4.925 - 0.7 = 4.225
SELL USD/TRY = -5.47 + 16.75 = 11.28
Total: 15.505
As evita combinatia pentru ca long pe usd/nu prea ma avantajeaza.
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CARRY TRADE MASCAT
Ce fac bancile romanesti?
Mai nou au inceput sa ofere credite catre populatie in franci elvetieni la incredibila dobanda de 4.5-4.9/an. Este o dobanda foarte buna daca ne raportam la RON,EUR sau USD.
Beneficiarul este avantajat - dobanda mai mica, CHF este o valuta stabila.
Dar consumatorul nu stie ca banca de la care se imprumuta cu 4.5 la randul ei se imprumuta din bancile elvetiene la dobanda de pe piata (la care au o reducere pt. ca iau en-gross). Mult mai mica.
Sau se imprumuta in chf, isi convertesc banii in lei si ii arunca pe piata la 10%.
Dobanzile vor mai scadea. Pentru ca vin competitorii. Suntem in comunitatea europeana si nu va mai dura mult cand vom imprumuta bani de acolo de unde dorim. De aici si competitia intre banci de a oferi credite - aparent super avantajoase. Pe cat mai mult timp.
Insa noi - traderii - putem face acelasi lucru. Ne imprumutam de acolo de unde dorim. Ne convertim banii in ce valuta dorim. Si o plasam acolo unde avem cel mai mare beneficiu. Avem aceasta posibilitate.
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CUM MA PROTEJEZ?
Ce se intampla daca cursul se intoarce impotriva mea?
Cand am deschis pozitia mi-am fixat nivelul de pierdere pe care-l pot suporta. Prefer sa nu spun stop loss. Istoria se repeta. In functie istoricul perechii, cand cursul a ajuns la un anumit nivel sunt indrepatit sa cred ca va urma iarasi o miscare mamut. Fac hedging in alt cont daca platforma nu permite pozitii de buy si sell concomitent. Beneficiez de pe urma scaderii. Am grija de contul care scade. Oanda permite tranfer de sume intre subaconturi care se executa in cateva secunde. Perioadele de scadere majora nu dureaza foarte mult. Pe orice grafic, al oricarei perechi, scaderile majore dureaza cateva zile, dupa care urmeaza perioade indelungate de crestere. E si normal. Cineva a provocat miscarea si trebuie sa beneficieze de pe urma ei. Am pierdut cateva zile de dobanda si de crestere a perechii, am pierdut pina in momentul in care am facut hedging, dar am castigat un trend major.
JPY-ul, pe care se bazeaza cam toate perechile pe care se face carry trade a ajuns iar la maxime istorice.
Ce urmeaza? Istoria se repeta! Sa fim pregatiti!
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EXEMPLE
EUR/TRY
SELL EUR/TRY = -3.95 + 16.75 = 12.8.
La un cont de 10000 EUR sell 10.000 EUR/TRY:
Account leverage: 25:1 - marja 400 EUR
Trade leverage: 10.000:10.000 - 1:1 - situatia perfecta.
- spred: 17 * 0,7514 USD = 12.7738 USD.
- one year: 1280 EUR.
- one day: 1280/365 = 3.5 eur * 1.343 = 4.7 usd/day
Oanda:
- buy 10.000 gbp/jpy: 1.5949 usd
- sell 10.000 eur/try: 4.6344 usd
Migfx:
- buy 100.000 tryjpy: 23.59 usd
- sell 100.000 eurtry: 34.94 usd
Pentru inceput deschid un cont de 1000 eur.
Selluri de 1.000 eurtry la intervale de 100p.
Nu ai cum sa ratezi. Numai daca vine iar un 11 septembrie.
Si inca un pericol. Chiar traderul pe care il musca mouse-ul de mana sa-si inchida pozitia.
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DE CE NU OFERA BROKERII 'PERECHI EXOTICE'?
Pentru ca pierd bani! Pentru ca pierd bani! Pentru ca pierd bani!
Traderii nu mai sunt dispusi sa tranzactioneze mult - brokerii nu incaseaza nimic. Traderii isi aleg perechi cu un trend accentuat de crestere si cu o diferenta a ratei dobanzii ridicate.
Fenomenul este amplificat de leverage. O suma mica blocata in marja aduce intr-un an mai mult profit decat mult mai multe tranzactii cu aceeasi suma. Adica traderul asteapta si incaseaza bani iar brokerul isi roade unghiile.
Daca brokerul este un market maker - majoritatea care ofera perechi exotice sunt - trebuie sa plateasca dobanzile din banii care ii pierdi alti traderi. La sumele platite isi pune si el un 0.25% ca intermediar (oanda) dar nu ii convine pt. ca trebuie sa plateasca constant. Un grup de traderi care castiga constant si substantial reduce exponential profiturile brokerilor. Sumele platite sunt platite din casa. Cu cat mai mari si cu cat mai des cu atat mai rau pt. broker.
Aceleasi perechi exotice nu se tranzactioneaza cu leverajul normal: de ex. la oanda si saxobank este de maxim 25:1.
Carry trade este preferat de foarte multe institutii finaciare, fonduri mutuale etc.
Pentru ca prezinta riscuri minime si isi pot permite sa suporte o perioada indelungata o depreciere a unei monede in favoarea altora. Timp in care deprecierea este suportata de dobanzi. Si de hedgind la scara uriasa.
Credeti ca degeaba GBP/JPY are constant un trend crescator???
Si ce daca JPY are din cand in cand scaderi majore (cand BOJ mareste rata dobanzii), cursul isi revine pt. ca gigantii imprumuta yeni si cumpara lire la greu. Sau dolari cu care cumpara bonuri de trezorerie de la americani cu dobanzi mai ridicate decat ale dolarului. Si uite cum traiesc japonezii (unii dintre ei si baietii destepti) pe spinarea americanilor.
Si sunt interesati sa-si mentina rata dobanzii cat mai scazuta.
Mai nou s-au trezit si chinezii. Fac si ei la fel. Au dobanzile mai mici decat ale japonezilor.
Chinezii au mers si mai departe. Daca imprumut CNY platesc 0.75% dobanda. Si acum faza interesanta: daca am CNY si vreau sa-i depun intr-o banca chineza, nu incasez dobanda cum ar fi normal, ci PLATESC! 0.25%!!!
Ca si cum chinezii sunt invitati sa faca altceva cu banii. Oriunde. Invitatie clara la cumparat alte valute.
Se vorbeste putin despre carry trade pe internet! Cateva definitii, ceva discutii la modul general.
Carry trade este unu dintre punctele slabe ale brokerilor. Sa-l folosim in avantajul nostru.
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LINKURI UTILE
Site-uri cu graficele cursurilor cam la toate perechilor existente:
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html - FX CHARTS & PLOTS
Interest rates
Oanda: https://fx1.oanda.com/user/interestrate.html
Saxobank: http://www.saxobank.com/?id=824&Lan=EN...;Au=2&Grp=6
Swap rates
http://www.saxobank.com/?id=1572&Lan=E...;Au=2&Grp=6
Detalii despre calculul diferentei de dobanda de la oanda:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/fxtrade/interes...tion.shtml
Forum: http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ult...c;f=16;t=006972
Brokeri care ofera perechi 'exotice':
- oanda - www.oanda.com
- saxobank - www.saxobank.com - de departe cea mai buna oferta
- acm - www.ac-markets.com
- migfx - www.migfx.ch
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Nu am invatat cum sa gandesc despre trading pina cand nu am citit cartea lui Du Toit.
Pina cand nu am inceput sa plasez pe grafice medianele pe daily.
Numai atunci am inceput sa inteleg cate ceva. Tradingul intr-o singura directie.
Up ori down. In directia trendului fundamental. Nu conteaza unde intru. Trebuie sa am rabdare.
Cel mai important aspect - pe care-l ignoram - este mentoringul.
Cel mai dificil lucru in trading este mentalitatea traderului.
Mentalitatea de trader pe care putini o descopera.
Nu e mai usor sa fii in relatie directa: maestru/discipol cu un trader de succes?
Cate greseli am fi evitat daca era cineva sa ne indrume cand greseam constant?
Sa ne corecteze cineva care a facut aceleasi greseli.
Sa vedem un trader de succes in actiune si sa incercam sa facem la fel.
Asa, singuri, nu ne ramine decat sa incercam o cale, sa renuntam, sa incercam alta si daca rezistam suficient de mult timp poate ca ajungem si traderi!
Nu trebuie blamat Du Toit pentru intentia lui. Stie ce vorbeste. Si apoi pretul platit pentru mentoring este infim: un pip/trade. La o tranzactie de 400-500p eu cred ca este infim. Si ai totul pe tava.
Sa nu credeti ca ii fac reclama sau ca sunt implicat in programul lui. Dar mentalitatea si atitudinea sa referitoare la trading m-au impresionat. Datorita BWILC am invat ca nu tehnica este importanta ci atitudinea.
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GRAFICE & ORDINE
Am reusit sa fac un cont demo la saxobank si sa pun mana pe cateva grafice 'exotice'. GREU.
Ma intereseaza in mod deosebit TRYJPY si CHFTRY (jpy si chf au cele mai mici dobanzi cand imprumut valuta de la broker). Trendul ma avantajeaza.
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PERECHI SINTETICE
Cea mai avantajoasa pereche - ar fi un buy TRY/JPY.
Diferenta de dobanda ar fi: 16.75 - 0.8 = 15.95!
IMENS!
Adica imprumut JPY - platesc pt. ei o dobanda infima si cumpar TRY pt.care primesc o dobanda imensa!
Dar ce fac ca nu am perechea TRY/JPY?
O pereche sintetica - punem ceva la mijloc - comun ambelor perechi: USD
USD/TRY downtrend
USD/JPY uptrend.
BUY 10.000 TRY/JPY ar fi echivalent cu:
SELL 10.000 USD/TRY = -5.47 + 16.75 = 11.28
BUY 10.000 USD/JPY = 4.925 - 0.8 = 4.125
Total: +11.28 + 4.125 = 15.405
Aproximativ egal cu o diferenta directa. Se pierde ceva la USD.
Pot face acelasi lucru si cu sell EUR/TRY - buy EUR/JPY.
Mai simplu:
- imprumut de la banca yeni (echivalentul a 10.000 usd) pt. a cumpara usd: platesc dob. pt. yeni (-0.8)
- cu yenii cumpar 10.000 usd pe care ii depun la banca - primesc dob. pt. usd (+4.925)
- imprumut de la banca alti 10.000 usd pt. a cumpara try - platesc dob. pt. usd (-5.47)
- cu cei 10.000 usd cumpar try, le depun la banca si primesc dob. pt. try (+16.75)
- total: -0.8 + 4.925 -5.47 +16.75 = 15.405
Pe hartie o pereche sintetica pare OK, dar in realitate o valuta nu reactioneaza identic fata de alte valute.
Ceva mai multe despre TRY: http://www.gocurrency.com/countries/turkey.htm
In atas niste charturi TRY/JPY. E tot ce am putut gasi!
Brokeri care ofera direct try/jpy: saxobank, migfx, pacifictrader, rcgfxtrader.
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Carry trade USD/TRY
Identic ca in cazul EUR/TRY numai ca diferenta de dobanda este un pic mai mica:
SELL EUR/TRY = -5.47 + 16.75 = 11.28
Cerinte pt. TRY: margine 25:1 obligatorie.
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Carry trade NZD/JPY
Perechea NZD/JPY are un trend fundamental crescator / similar cu gbp/jpy.
Diferenta de dobanda este mai mare la nzd/jpy:
buy: 7.6 - 0.8 = 6.8!
La gbp/jpy era 4.55.
NZD/JPY este oferita de putini brokeri spre tranzactionare: DeltaStock, ACM , MIGFX, EFX.
In cazul nzd/jpy nu as folosi un cont suplimentar pt. hedging.
CARRY TRADE
în Strategii si planuri de tranzactionare
Postat
Situatia cu pozitiile de pe demo!
In momentul de fata swapul reprezinta 18.5% din totalul pozitiilor.
Asa ca nu e de neglijat.