EUR/USD

[tradelover]

Un pic off-topic. India se ridica acum cel mai tare. Cat despre China, eu am fost intotdeauna simpatizantul lor. Am citit Tofler acum 30 de ani (Socul viitorului, Al treilea val, si mai apoi Poweshift, pe care le recomand tuturor ca fiind cele mai bune carti de futurologie pe care le-am citit vreodata, nu baliverne ca von Daniken, chestii reale, Tofler a prezis cele mai importante evenimente sociale si politice in cartile alea, cu intre 10 si 30 de ani inainte de a se produce! Cine n-a citit Tofler si Carl Sagan, poate sa zica ca nu a citit nimic in materie!) si am muncit cativa ani in China... la sfarsitul secolului trecut , intr-o fabrica de electronice de inalta clasa, sub patronaj german. Nu vorbesc nici o boaba de germana, dar inca vorbesc chineza mandarina mult mai bine ca tailandeza (limba asta de aici pur si simplu de nu lipeste de mine!). Pe vremea cand traiam intre ei ma contraziceam zilnic cu bosii mei pe problema economiei chinezesti. Eu sub influenta lui Tofler, dadeam tare cu "china, cea mai mare putere economica a mileniului al treilea". De fapt Tofler spune "sud estul asiei", in care el include si India, si Indonezia, si Coreea (care desi mica, produce la ora actuala peste 85% din productia mondiala de procesoare si circuite integrate complexe). Bosu meu ala mare era oleaca rasist. Un mos uricios la vreo 60 de ani, care nu suferea chinezii in functie de conducere, zicea ca "il fura si fac afaceri in spatele lui" (ceea ce era adevarat oarecum), de aia aducea europeni (nemti in special) in toate posturile de management. Asta nu ar fi mare scofala, daca lucrurile s-ar fi oprit aici, nu vreau sa detaliez problema, o sa zic doar ca mosu, nascut undeva in anii 40, avea unul dintre cele doua prenume "Adolf". Asta spune totul . Eu, ca roman, adica nu eram neamt, si proveneam dintr-o tara proaspat eliberata de comunism (vorba vine, asta ca sa nu scriu fosta comunista) munceam cat nemtii cantitativ, si mult mai bine calitativ, rezolvam problemele pe care ei nu erau instare sa le rezolve, dar luam salariu jumatate, doar pentru ca nu eram neamt. Chinezii, cei mai multi dintre cei 400 care lucrau acolo, luau de 10 ori mai putin. Fara gluma. Lor le convenea, pentru ca oricum asta insemna de 10 ori mai mult decat daca ar fi lucrat undeva mai la nord (unde un profesor la o scoala lua cel mult 80-100 de RMB pe luna, adica vreo 20-30 de marci la vremea aia, acuma na ca v-am dat toate cifrele!). Bun, si mie imi placea sa il sacai pe boss ori de cate ori aveam ocazia, catandu-i din Tofler. Ala innebunea cand auzea ca China poate emite pretentii de putere economica. "Tu nu ii vezi ce dobitoci sunt?". La vremea aia, cam toti marii "afaceristi", ori "economisti" ar fi ras in hohote de asemenea afirmatii, si ar fi zis ca Tofler e nebun. Precum ar fi ras cu vreo 15 ani inainte, daca li s-ar fi aratat citatele din Tofler cu destramarea uniunii sovietice imediat dupa aparitia cartii "Al treilea val". La vremea asta, deja nu mai rade nimeni, Tofler a avut de departe dreptate. Dar nu in totalitate. Desi imi placea sa il enervez pe boss, in perioada cat am stat acolo mi-am schimbat oarecum optica. Sa ne intelegem, China este un stat puternic. China nu este Irak, si nici Iran. Nici macar Rusia. La un conflic deschis intre americani si chinezi la ora actuala, nu as paria nicidecum pe americani. Si americanii sunt foarte constienti de asta, cu toata puterea lor. Afganistanul nu a fost nimic altceva decat tentativa de a implanta un ghimpe in coasta Chinei si a Rusiei simultan. Tot asa cum Irakul nu a avut nimic de a face cu armele chimice, ori cu Saddam, ci doar cu rezervele de petrol. Batalia pentru resursele mondiale a inceput demult, de 50 de ani incoace, imediat dupa WW2. Aici americanii, ca toti occidentalii, sunt mai directi. Orientalii sunt mult mai subtili, si au in spate o cultura de mii de ani, in comparatie cu "rapid flame", focul rapid american, care arde de doua sute de ani. Consuma totul in calea lui, si piere ca nu mai are ce arde. Chinezii ard mocnit de sase mii de ani! Chinezii dispun de cea mai cumplita arma, mai cumplita decat explozia atomica. Se numeste explozia demografica. Pe tot mapamondul, atat la New York cat si in Moscova, au inceput sa apara din ce in ce mai multi ochi oblici pe strazi. Cand s-a intalnit Carter cu Deng Xiao Ping in 1979, primul i-a reprosat lui Deng ca la ei nu este democratie, si ca nu au voie sa circule, nici in interiorul Chinei, nici in afara. A ramas celebra replica lui Deng: "Nici o problema, daca vrei, le dau maine pasapoarte la toti!" :D Nu a mai continuat, dar continuarea era clara "sa vedem ce faceti voi americanii cu ei cand or incepe sa vina buluc". Nu e usor sa tii in mana si sa dai de mancare la doua miliarde de nebuni. La ora actuala China este inca o putere. Merge cu 10% crestere anuala la PIB de ani buni. Va urca pe locul trei mondial, devansandu-i pe americani. Unii zic ca deja. Dar pe termen lung, lucrurile nu vor continua asa la nesfarsit. China are cateva probleme. Omul de pe strada chinez, care are oarece cultura si educatie, le stie.

 

O problema importanta este comunicatia la nivel inalt, pe plan stiintific. Aceasta este inexistenta, dintr-un motiv foarte obiectiv: scrierea chinezeasca. Un elev de clasa primara invata circa 2000 de "semne" de alea si stie sa citeasca cele mai multe texte pentru nivelul lui. Un elev de gimnaziu ajunge pana la 4-5 mii, iar un individ care termina liceul poate cunoaste pana la 8 sau 10 mii. Asta dezvolta foarte mult capacitatile intelectuale ale omului "de nivel mediu". Un chinez de nivel mediu are "in medie" un coeficient de inteligenta mult mai ridicat decat un occidental de nivel mediu. Dar de aici incolo, lucrurile se schimba. Chinezii destepti, ori cei cu posibilitati, merg la facultate. Acolo se specializeaza pe domeniul lor. Fizicienii in fizica, chimistii in chimie, doctorii in medicina, electronistii in electronica, etc. Adica ce se intampla? Practic si concret, chinezu care ajunge acolo invata inca vreo o mie sau doua mii, sau trei mii (aceia care vor sa devina literati, ziaristi, etc) de semne. Dar semnele lor sunt DIFERITE. Adica doctorul are "litere" din medicina, electronistul are "litere" din electronica. Ele nu arata la fel! Am intalnit chinezi care erau ingineri electronisti (colegi de ai mei) cu experienta, si foarte buni in domeniul lor, dar nu erau instare sa citeasca o prescriptie de pe o folie de penicilina. Raspunsul era invariabil "asta e o chinograma de medicina, dupa cum arata, se refera la o substanta, dar nu stiu ce e". Nu numai ca nu stia substanta, dar nu stia nici macar sa o pronunte. Adica nu stia efectiv cum se citeste aia, daca e "hui chang" sau "chong ching sau "bao rai" sau cum dracu i-o fi zicand. Dialogul lor la nivel inalt e zero. Un chimist chinez nu va inventa niciodata o chestie cu aplicatii in electronica, precum un electronist nu va fi niciodata capabil sa faca o inventie cu aplicatii in biologie. De asta ei nu au mai inventat nimic de 3000 de ani, ultimele lor inventii sunt busola, praful de pusca si zmeiele de hartie, ultimele sunt cele mai noi, acum 2500 de ani. In rest sunt "copisti". Pot copia imediat (si eventual imbunatati) chestii simple, pentru ca chinezul mediu este foarte inteligent in comparatie cu media altor natii.

 

O alta problema este sistemul actual care nu permite chinezului de rand sa calatoreasca fara aprobari speciale, nici macar in interiorul tarii. Garile de tren sunt ca aeroporturile, iar intre provincii/judete/raioane au paza militarizata. Aprobarea este o formalitate, te duci la politie, te scrii pe un caiet, ti se da o hartie, arati hartia "la vama" dintre judete. Adica nu face nimeni caz ca nu te las sa te duci, treaba ta unde vrei sa te duci, probabil verifica ei cumva, dar hartia ti se da pana la urma, daca nu esti intre cei "care fac probleme". Uneori hartia "costa" ceva maruntis, pentru ca la ei cand se face un pod ori o strada noua, oamenii care trec pe acolo trebuie sa plateasca (amortizarea investitiei). Daca mergi de la Zhuhai la Shenzen tre sa platesti doi RMB pentru podul cel mare si nou de cativa kilometri peste golf. In general nu e o problema, hartia ti se da de multe ori fara sa te intrebe nimic la politie. Dar cerintza exista, restrictia exista, iar daca te prind aia fara hartie la control te tin ascuns cateva zile. La fel daca esti nascut intr-o provincie si vrei sa muncesti in alta, iti trebuie hartie, care se obtine un pic mai greu, dar se poate obtine, daca vrei. Dar asta descurajeaza pe cei mai multi. Si scade si mai mult nivelul de comunicatie intre oameni, feedback-ul.

 

Dar toate aceste probleme pălesc in comparatie cu a treia si cea mai mare. Controlul demografic. Problema 4-2-1. De foarte multi ani de zile chinezii nu permit femeilor lor sa aiba mai mult de un copil. Al doilea te costa (trebuie sa platesti pentru el taxe anuale la stat, scoala nu mai este gratuita, etc). Iar al treilea e imposibil. Te ia cu duba si iti face avort fortat. Asta pentru ca un dobitoc a decis candva in trecut ca nu vor sa se inmulteasca sa iepurii si sa ajunga sa nu aiba ce da mancare copiilor, ca statele din lumea a treia. Probabil ca pe termen scurt, ideea e buna. Dar pe termen lun, e o boala. Cancer social si economic! Cea mai grava "boala". Motivul principal pentru care eu personal nu dau prea multe sanse chinezilor pe plan economic pentru urmatoarea suta de ani. Efectele deja se fac simtite. China nu mai are forta de lucru. Asta forteaza economia infloritoare din sud sa se extinda spre nord. Unde forta de lucru e "virgina", neatinsa de "tzara cu doua sisteme". Asta va aduce un nou boom economic pe urmatorii 5-10 ani. Yuan-ul nu va mai putea fi tinut in frau, si realitatea politica (cu nuclee de putere locala, fara feedback, cum era la noi pe vremea lui ceasca, una se facea si alta se raporta) nu va mai corespunde cu cea sociala. Acolo dedesupt e o BOMBA mare al carei fitil arde mocnit de 15 ani. China va mai creste o perioada, poate 10-20 de ani, dar in nici un caz nu mai poate sustine aceeasi rata de crestere ca pana acum. China nu mai are forta de lucru. Rata progresului, desi inca pozitiva, se apropie cu repeziciune de zero. China ramane inca o putere economica si politica in urmatorii 10-20 de ani, poate chiar 30. Dar ca o incarcatura de uraniu, a atins masa critica. Si in curand o sa exploadeze.

 

In china poti face bani. Poti trai bine. Cine zice ca America e tara tuturor posibilitatilor, nu a fost in China. Pentru ca la ei comunistii nu s-au bagat niciodata in proprietate, ca la noi. Fiecare are bucata lui de orez, ori micul lui magazin, ori un autobuz rablagit cu care plimba lumea intre doua sate. La noi taranii au muncit intotdeauna pamantul boierului, relatiile sociale erau altele la venirea comunistilor. La noi s-au omorat pentru pamant, si se mai omoara si azi. Dar la chinezi omul de jos a avut intotdeauna bucata lui de pamant pe care o muncea ingropat in nomol pana la genunchi, pentru o recolta de orez pe care o pastra pentru el. Seniorul era ala care avea armata, si care nu urmarea sa le ia pamantul, ce sa faca cu el? El doar venea periodic si isi lua "dijma" pentru faptul ca "ii proteja" pe tarani cu armata lui. Cine nu dadea dijma era agatat de copac ori pus in cutie, si apoi se ocupa altul de pamantul lui. Pe boier nu il interesa nomolul din balta cu orez. Relatiile sociale au fost altele, iar mica proprietate s-a pastrat si dupa comunism. In china actuala poti face averi imense, daca nu esti puturos si dobitoc. Dar la ce iti foloseste averea, daca nu ai copii sa le-o lasi? Aici e un conflict social serios. Ca tot va spuneam intr-un post mai vechi ca sunt abonat la Gary North, si ca sa nu ziceti ca aiurez, uite ce zice el despre problema chinezilor. Eu am trait acolo cativa ani si am vazut totul pe viu. Omul asta stie ce zice.

 

> ------------------------------------------------------

>

> Issue 710 December 11, 2007

>

> CHINA'S 4-2-1 PROBLEM: A GUARANTEED DISASTER

>

> In late May, 2007, rioting began in Guangxi Province.

> Thousands of rioters attacked government office buildings, set

> fire to police vehicles, and engaged in physical battles with the

> police. This received almost no coverage by the world's media.

> It did get a very brief article in the "New York Times" (May 27).

>

> The "International Herald Tribune," owned by the "Times,"

> went into greater detail in its brief article on May 29.

>

> For the past two months, local officials in the

> southwestern Chinese province of Guangxi have pursued a

> harsh campaign aimed at enforcing China's population

> planning laws.

>

> In order to meet targets for allowable births, they

> forced pregnant women to have abortions. They

> threatened to demolish homes to make residents cough up

> fines demanded for excess children.

>

> This month citizen anger boiled over. Thousands of

> angry rural residents took to the streets, smashing

> cars and sacking government offices.

>

> The actions of the local province's government went beyond

> what the central government required. In January, the central

> government demanded harsher penalties against any family that had

> a second child. This was a continuation of policy that went back

> to December, 1978, when Deng Xiao Ping freed up the agricultural

> sector's economy and simultaneously announced the law limited

> births to one child per family.

>

> The local officials went way beyond what the national

> government mandated. Why? It may be that the central government

> is not fully in control of local affairs, the author speculated.

> More likely, it is the age-old problem for China, stretching back

> to the days of empire under the emperors: self-interested local

> government control over the upward flow of information.

>

> Sure, you can demand that the local authorities meet

> designated birth control, tax revenue or economic

> development targets. But how do you supervise this? How

> do you ensure that local officials don't simply falsify

> data? Or that they don't rely on their own private goon

> squads to brutalize local residents into meeting

> whatever targets have been set?

>

> In other countries, a range of independent, bottom-up

> channels help monitor and check the behavior of local

> officials. A free press exposes government corruption.

> Independent judicial institutions evaluate whether the

> actions of the local authorities accord with national

> law. Open elections allow citizens to remove officials

> engaged in unethical behavior.

>

> These channels don't exist under China's one-party

> system. Local Chinese party secretaries exercise

> sweeping control over the local media, legislatures and

> courts.

>

> This is the judicial setting for the free market economy in

> China. There is a disconnect here. The central government

> allows freedom to make money but no freedom to have a second

> child or to criticize the government. This is leading to a

> conflict. No one knows when or how it will manifest itself, but

> it will come. The legal foundations of the economy are

> inconsistent with the nation's political order.

>

> Some localities have degenerated into private fiefdoms

> run by local party officials. This has serious

> consequences for people whose rights have been violated

> by local officials. Citizens are far from passive. They

> resort to any and all channels to get redress -

> lawsuits, petitions, foreign media. But these often

> don't work.

>

> In 2005, the blind legal activist Chen Guangcheng

> attempted to use these channels to protest violations

> of national law committed by local population-planning

> officials in the northern province of Shandong. The

> local authorities arrested him and, after detaining his

> entire team of defense lawyers on the eve of his trial,

> sentenced him to four years in prison.

>

> Faced with a lack of alternatives, what do people do?

> They riot.

>

> The riots spread in June. At least 40 cities and towns were

> hit by these riots. Yet almost no word of this entered the

> Western media.

>

> There was an interview on China's policy published in

> November on the web site of the Voice of America. It was removed

> almost immediately. Had Google not preserved an old version of

> it, I would never have learned about the riots. The document was

> the transcript of an interview with Gordon Chang, an expert in

> China's economy, and Nick Eberstadt, an expert on China's

> population policy.

>

> I first read Eberstadt's assessment of the economic effects

> of China's one-child policy in 1998. He published an article,

> "Asia Tomorrow: Gray and Male." It appeared in "The National

> Interest." It was because I ran a Google search on "Eberstadt,"

> "China," and "population" that I found the VOA interview.

>

> What he has written about for a decade has not made it into

> the financial press. It ought to. What he says points to a

> major transformation of China, entirely for the worse.

>

> His statistics have not been challenged. The implications

> he draws from these statistics have rarely been discussed. I am

> aware of no articles against his assessment. What he forecasts

> needs to be factored into Americans' long-term plans for the

> future.

>

> China is an economic powerhouse today. But it is facing

> major problems that will call into question the basic

> institutions of Chinese society. This will have negative effects

> on China's economic productivity.

>

>

> A POPULATION IMPLOSION

>

> People can and do change their minds about childbearing.

> The forecasts made in the 1930's by demographers about the U.S.

> population proved to be utterly wrong. The demographers assumed

> that the low birth rates of the Depression era would continue.

> They didn't. The American family in 1957 peaked at almost four

> children per family.

>

> Asia is in the midst of the greatest decline in fertility in

> human history. In Japan, this has been going on since about

> 1955. Japan in 2010 will begin to decline in numbers. In China,

> this has been a matter of official government policy. Yet the

> phenomenon of smaller families is universal in Asia. In his VOA

> interview, Eberstadt summarized the situation.

>

> Hong Kong today, for example, with no coercive

> population program, the childbearing patterns would

> imply less than one birth per woman per lifetime; in

> Singapore, just about one birth per woman per lifetime;

> in South Korea, barely over one birth per woman per

> lifetime. In China today, in big metropolises like

> Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, we also see about one birth

> per woman per lifetime.

>

> This is historically unprecedented. It flies in the face of

> Confucian philosophy, which favors large families, respect for

> aged grandparents, and family unity. The first has been

> completely abandoned in urban Asia over the last two decades.

>

> Change commented on the male-female ratio. I began writing

> about this two decades ago. Now, it is common knowledge. The

> implications have not yet made themselves felt.

>

> China's birth-sex ratio is about one hundred and

> twenty-three males to a hundred females, where the

> average around the world is about one hundred and five

> males to a hundred females. But if you look at second

> births, because some second births are authorized, the

> ratio is one hundred and fifty males to a hundred

> females. This is just unprecedented -- one might even

> say hideous -- but we don't know what the consequences

> of this will be, because the population changes in

> China which we've seen elsewhere are occurring faster

> in China, and they're also occurring in a society that

> has yet to develop.

>

> Today, in the young married ages, the ratio is about 117 to

> 1000. It will be 123 to 100 in 2010. This means that tens of

> millions of men will not marry. The richer ones will. The

> poorer ones will not. There is no way to change this now. A

> recent Chinese commission reported that in 2020, there will be 30

> million more men than women, age 25-40. Eberstadt said,

>

> The bride price will be established not in the

> countryside but in places like Beijing and Shanghai and

> Guangzhou and other centers of affluence. This means

> that the countryside is going to be even further

> denuded of women so that the existing imbalances will

> tend to be even more extreme in the poorest and most

> rural sectors of China. You don't have to read very

> much Chinese history to understand the implications of

> this for possible social stability.

>

> It's not just China. It's also South Korea. By 1993,

> Eberstadt reported in 1998, the ratio was 116 to 100. Why?

> Abortions. Asian favoritism for male heirs was making itself

> felt. Today, South Korean matchmakers are having to go to Korean

> enclaves inside China to find brides for prospective husbands.

> This reduces the number of women available to males in these

> enclaves. Soon, this source of brides will be depleted.

> Eberstadt asked:

>

> Unless bachelorhood suddenly becomes much more socially

> acceptable in East Asia, both China and South Korea are

> poised to experience an increasingly intense, and

> perhaps desperate, competition among young men for

> their country's limited supply of brides.

>

>

> AGE AND PRODUCTIVITY

>

> Eberstadt has hammered on four themes: the peaking of Asian

> population, the male-female disparity in births, the economic

> productivity problem, and the aging problem.

>

> Consider the productivity problem. Asia nations generally

> and China particularly have gained its tremendous economic growth

> by low-cost labor recruited into coastal cities from poor rural

> areas. These young people are better educated than their parents

> and especially their grandparents. They have few family

> responsibilities in urban areas. They are able to work in an

> export-driven economy.

>

> This is good for about 300 million Chinese, but there are

> 900 million still living in rural areas.

>

> I saw a documentary recently. It chronicled a trip down the

> Yangtze River. The interior of the country is rural and very

> poor. The residents interviewed did not believe that China is an

> economic powerhouse. Only when the boat got close to the coast

> did high rises start to appear.

>

> In the near future -- the next decade -- there is going to

> be a tightening constraint on the economic productivity of China

> and Asia in general.

>

> Traditionally, it's the youngest people, the fifteen-

> to twenty-four-year-olds, who have the highest level of

> educational attainment in Chinese society and other

> places. There's going to be a really sharp fall-off of

> these fifteen- to twenty-four-year-olds in the future.

> All of China's labor-force growth and all of the growth

> that's going to keep it from shrinking even more is

> going to come in the category of workers fifty and

> older. It's far from ideal for a modernizing society.

>

> This factor has to do with the availability of trainable,

> low-wage employees, which are the foundation of China's boom.

> But this aging process also has implications for capital

> formation. There will have to be a substitution of capital for

> labor when the working-age population begins to peak in size.

> But this take place when the present high rate of capital

> formation will start to fall.

>

> With zero labor-force growth, it's also going to be

> much more difficult to keep savings at the remarkably

> high levels that China has had, so you're not going to

> have the same labor-force growth, you're probably not

> going to have the same growth in capital investment,

> and with both of those factors in play, productivity

> may also be affected. So you see a lot of downward

> pressure on economic performance in the future.

>

>

> THE 4-2-1 PROBLEM

>

> As the population ages, the support of old people will

> become the pressing social issue in every nation. But China is

> still an underdeveloped nation. The cities are not

> representative of the nation. A few weeks before his VOA

> interview, Eberstadt wrote an article for the "Wall Street

> Journal."

>

> China still has no official national pension system. Up

> to now, China's de facto national pension system has

> been the family--but that social safety net is

> unraveling, and rapidly. Until very recently, thanks to

> relatively large Chinese families, almost every Chinese

> woman had given birth to at least one son--under

> Confucian tradition, their first line of support. But

> just two decades from now, thanks to the "success" of

> the one-child policy, roughly a third of women entering

> their 60s will have no living son.

>

> In such numbers, one can see the making of a

> slow-motion humanitarian tragedy. But the withering

> away of the Chinese family under population control has

> even more far-reaching implications.

>

> Eberstadt calls this the 4-2-1 problem. This refers to the

> size of the Chinese family through three generations. In his VOA

> interview, he identified the 4-2-1 problem.

>

> By 2025, my estimates suggest: something like one in

> three women turning sixty, being more or less

> retirement age, will have no living son. That's up from

> about only six or seven percent just a few years back.

> No less importantly, the continuation of the one-child

> policy for another generation will mean the emergence

> of a kind of a four-two-one structure in big areas of

> the country -- four grandparents, two parents, one

> child, a child who has no siblings, no uncles and

> aunts, no cousins, only ancestors.

>

> We now turn to the Chinese social order. In his book,

> "Trust," Francis Fukuyama describes several societies in terms of

> trust. This affects economic growth. China is a society that

> has high levels of trust only within the family, although this

> can be an extended family. Outside of the family, China is a

> low-trust society, unlike Northwestern European countries,

> English-speaking societies, Japan, and to a lesser degree, South

> Korea. Eberstadt comments.

>

> China's a low-trust society, and in the past, the

> business model has relied very heavily on Guangxi, on

> family relationships. How does the business model for

> modern China work when people are increasingly just

> atomized individuals and nuclearized families?

>

>

> CHINA'S POLITICAL ORDER

>

> China is officially Communist. The country is run by

> bureaucrats -- old bureaucrats, military bureaucrats, and

> survival-skilled bureaucrats. They survived Mao's Cultural

> Revolution. These men will not likely to voluntarily change

> their commitment to centralized power.

>

> Chang made an important point. There is a widening gap

> between the government's abortion program and the population in

> rural areas.

>

> It's going to get wider as China becomes more like the

> rest of the world. And that's going to be a problem,

> because the Communist party is not going to want to

> give up the one-child policy because it is a measure of

> social control. There is this large bureaucracy that

> now has a stake in maintaining a policy, even though

> it's really inconsistent with a modern society.

>

> If the government in 1979 had stayed out of family planning

> issues, the free market would have produced in cities the same

> outcome that the politicians wanted: lower population growth.

> This has taken place across urban China and South Korea.

> Abortion is widespread in cities, and the procedure is aimed more

> at females than males. But the Chinese state intervened in 1979,

> and it now faces backlash for imposing a policy by force in the

> rural areas that families would have adopted as they moved into

> growing cities.

>

> The issue is legitimacy. China's government will get blamed

> for negative social outcomes which the system of legalized

> abortion will soon produce. Chang sees the end of the Communist

> Party as a result.

>

> Many people say, and I believe that it is true, that

> the legitimacy of the Communist party is largely

> dependent on providing economic growth, because they

> have ditched their ideology, which was the initial

> basis for the Communist party ruling China. It's very

> difficult to have a one-party state in a modern society

> with an open economy, so I think that the Communist

> party is going to face very severe tests of legitimacy,

> and this is going to have a number of effects. I

> believe the Communist party will not be able to hold

> on, given the trends that we see. Population policy is

> one of them. It's going to be very, very difficult for

> the Communist party to maintain its role in an open

> society.

>

> The question is: What will the Party's functionaries do to

> forestall this? The traditional solution is foreign war. It has

> the added advantage, politically speaking, of reducing the number

> of young men.

>

> ---------------------

>

> CONCLUSION

>

> China's central bank is inflating the currency by about 20%

> per annum. This stimulates growth. It creates a boom. The

> policy is destructive in the long run because it creates a

> misallocation of capital. But the rulers recognize that China is

> poor, it will soon be aging, and it is underdeveloped. The

> social order is facing a complete disruption as old people, deep

> in poverty, become dependent on fewer children than ever. Old

> people are living longer. Who will support them in their old

> age?

>

> The old answers of pre-industrial, pre-Communist China have

> no relevance for the boom-bust population effects of abortion.

> Neither does the West, but the West at least has a great deal of

> capital, much of it lent since 1995 by China, Japan, and Russia,

> who hold dollar-denominated government debt as central bank

> capital. Are they ever going to be surprised when we default

> through mass inflation! Almost as surprised as Americans who

> have trusted in Medicare and Social Security.

>

> Long-term, I would rather have my money invested in India

> than China.

>

> ------------------------------------------------------

[Scrat]

ca de obicei, foarte interesant.

nu m-am gindit niciodata ca demografia controlata lucreaza impotriva lor; teoretic asa este, dar practic nu-s sigur ca n-au facut ei ceva ca sa contracareze efectele pe termen lung.

eu mi-am pregatit cafeaua si astept continuarea

[Carbon]

'previziunea' mea pentru fiber: o sa oscileze intre 0.8225 si... 2.0000

uuoofff... de ce ne incurcam cu atatea previziuni... lasati ca o sa faca kerosen "forecast-ul" ala si ne-am scos si o sa fie 99.9% corect ( sau chiar 100% daca o sa il optimizeze bine)

[MarcoTrader2007]

Asta suna a caterinca.Sa-ti zic ceva:Daca unul din noi nu are un sistem pe care se poate baza, sa fie profitabil nu cred ca ar fi prea indicat sa radem de sistemul altuia, chiar daca acel sistem nu e bun.Scuzati offtopicul.

Sa trecem la EW.

Am vizionat un film pe youtube si am vazut ca tipul din filmulet se ajuta de indicatorul momentum ca sa stabileasca undele EW(mai pe inteles unde sa repartizeze cifrele 1,2,3,4,5)

Stie careva despre aceasta tehnica de amplasare a numerelor sau de altfel de tehnici.(orice)

Iordaki a zis ca zig-zagul mai da erori, si chiar am observat acest lucru.

[Stefan]

'previziunea' mea pentru fiber: o sa oscileze intre 0.8225 si... 2.0000

uuoofff... de ce ne incurcam cu atatea previziuni... lasati ca o sa faca kerosen "forecast-ul" ala si ne-am scos si o sa fie 99.9% corect ( sau chiar 100% daca o sa il optimizeze bine)

Nu va mai "pishcatzi" ca va trimit la colt! http://forum.vamist.ro/public/style_emoticons/default/06.gif/04.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':D' />

[iordaki]

Valul (ii) s-a finisat... Era si de aşteptat de fapt p-u ca corectia abc nu a fost una zig-zag ci iregular (valul b s-a finisat mai sus de începutul valului a , respectiv valul c nu s-a corectat atât de adânc cum aşteptam.

Concluzie care trebuie scoasă de aici .....ceva neclarităţi au fost la interpretarea valului 5 din 5 din 1 si respectiv identificarea formaţiei iregular dea cea am aşteptat sfârşitul valului (ii) ceva mai jos

In general scenariul nu s-a schimbat ...mergem spre nord !!!!!!!

Am încercat sa o fac si in format video .......E prima încercare rog sa nu mă criticaţi tare!!! eur[/acronym]-usd10.1.08.swf"]Clic Aici p-u video

[tradelover]

@iordaki

 

Man, ce imi placi! Ai crescut trei inci in ochii mei! Bravo! Sincer!

 

Hai Moldova! Si eu sunt moldovean, dar de pe partea astalalta a gârlei. De fapt banuiam ca esti, dupa felul cum incurci pronumele personale prin postrari. Seamana a Pavel Stratan , il iubesc la nebunie pe omul ala!... "Iar pi tăţi din jurul căsii /Le-aş trimite-n... la mama măsii" (in loc de "i-aş", hihi, in romaneşte "le" este folosit doar la persoana a treia plural, cazurile dativ (ambele genuri) si acuzativ (doar pentru genul feminin):

 

"fetelor le-aş spune", "baietilor le-aş spune", dar

"pe ele le-aş întreba", "pe ei i-aş întreba"

 

Moldovenii de dincolo de rîu însă îl folosesc şi la acuzativ masculin, cu sens de pronume de politeţe (adica e mai politicos sa spui "pe ei le-aş întreba", greşală care o faci si tu frecvent in posturi, sub influenta limbii ruse).

 

Bun, acuma legat de clip: foarte buna analiza, foarte buna intenţia, implică o gramada de munca si de timp pierdut in folosul altora (noi cei de aici adica). Este parerea ta, concluzia analizei din punctul tau de vedere, nu discut "capacitatea ei de prevestire", pentru ca nimeni nu este Mama Omida, ori Mudava, eu ma frig de cele mai multe ori, si doar un MM riguros ma ajuta sa supravietuiesc castigand mai putine biduri decat pierd. Eu iti dau nota 10 pentru clip. Pentru intentie, pentru munca, pentru analiza. Si asteptam si altele. Foarte serios!

 

Legat de calitatea tehnica a clipului, probabil ca nu ai studiou de film acasa, dar chiar si cu mijloace simple se poate face mai bine. Prima chestie: stai mai departe de microfon, ca sa nu se auda sforaiturile cauzate de suflatul in microfon. Si vorbeste MAI TARE! Eu prima data am crezut ca e fara sunet, se auzea un fel de murmur in background, a trebuit sa dau boxele mai tare ca sa aud ce spui (iar dupa aia sforaiturile se auzeau si mai tare, desigur!). Tu faci o analiza. O chestie bazata pe TOATE informatiile, toate cunostintele si skill-ul de care dispui. Este concluzia rationamentului tau. Ti-e rusine sa o spui cu glas tare? Nu. Pai spune-o. Nu va zice nimeni "bai ce tampenii spui!", pentru ca nici unul dintre noi cei de aici nu suntem capabili sa facem o analiza 100% corecta. Ti se simte timiditatea din glas, glasul tremurat. Uita-te la filmuletele de pe fxclub (am postat eu cateva pe ftp la ener, si mai am unul pe care vreau sa il postez dar nu stiu unde, sper ca rezolva Stefan cu ftp-ul ala ca am ramas cu o restanta). Tipul de la fxclub (Denis Kar parca ii zice) pur si simplu SPUNE de are de spus. TARE si dezinvolt, parca anunta prognoza meteo. Sa se auda din avion. Ferm. Asa tre' sa faci si tu.

 

Nu trebuie sa iti fie rusine ca vorbesti moldoveneste, si nici nu trebuie sa iti fie frica ca ai putea gresi in prognoza, daca ai fost onest atunci cand ai facut-o. Se vor gasi intotdeauna cativa carcotasi, asa ca mine, care sa faca misto de limba sau de mai stiu eu ce, dar ar trebui sa nu iti pese, pentru ca nu asta e punctul principal. Punctul principal e forexul, si analiza in sine. Ar trebui ca din videoclip sa transpara CLAR mesajul: "Ăsta sunt eu, asta e limba pe care o vorbesc eu, asta e prognoza la care am muncit din greu si CRED in ea, pentru ca e rodul unei analize minutioase, bazata pe cunostintle mele de EW si pe experienta mea. Va place, bine, nu va place, tot bine. Vreti sa ziceti mersi si sa dati o bere, bine, nu vreti, tot bine! Faceti si voi una ca sa avem ce comenta, ca asa invatam". Fara frica si fara timiditate. Nu te va acuza nimeni ca spui prostii, cel putin nu de la primul videoclip, haha. Daca faci vreo 200 de prognoze si toate sunt proaste, eu o sa fiu cel care o sa dau primul cu piatra, de pe la a 50-a incolo , dar la un scor de macar 60% dintre ele sa fie bune, atunci tot respectul meu!

 

P.S. later edit, inca o chestie, in romaneste "pentru" se prescurteaza cu "pt". Este universal si este folosit si in unele inscrisuri oficiale, in plus trebuie sa apesi doar doua taste , prescurtarea "p-u" provine probabil tot din limba rusa (patamu, cu accent pe u, cumva?)

[iordaki]

Tradelover, Grand Merci pt (vezi ca p-u s-a corectat) apreciere!!!http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/artists/laie/Laie_54.gif Promit ca urmatorul v-a fi mai bun si mai calitativ

Ce tine de accent si de greseli.....da sunt si rog nu va suparăţi tare ....aceasta este, oricum fata de alţi basarabeni e cu mult mai bine!

Am lăsat răspunsul la topicul acesta p-u sfârşitul zilei ....dar uite am ajuns sa-l scriu si.........m-am impotmolit..e si vineri si-s cu berea in mana http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/artists/laie/Laie_86.gif

aşa sau alt fel avem multe sa învăţam http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/artists/laie/Laie_21.gifsi cred ca avem acelaşi drum http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/user/lex_03.gif

[Carbon]

felicitari Iordaki pentru film chiar ma bucur ca aud si eu o analiza in format video in care se vorbeste in romana, ca m-am plictisit de la atatea filmulete in engleza

& 1 bucata intrebare, unde locuiesti acum?

[iordaki]

felicitari Iordaki pentru film chiar ma bucur ca aud si eu o analiza in format video in care se vorbeste in romana, ca m-am plictisit de la atatea filmulete in engleza

& 1 bucata intrebare, unde locuiesti acum?

 

Merci Mult Carboon, de 3 ani stu in Londra, dar din acesti trei ani ultemele 2 luni le stau in Chisinau

 

P.S. Daca îmi permite-ţi as vrea is eu sa întreb......De ce asa interes fata de locul meu de şedere