Barbones

Un articol documentat. America a renunţat acum 40 de ani la etalonul aur. Au venit inflaţia, bulele speculative şi recesiunile.Anul acesta, pe 15 august, se împlinesc 40 de ani de când SUA au renunţat unilateral la etalonul aur, adică la covertibilitate deplină a dolarului american în aur. S-a pus astfel capăt sistemului instituit la Bretton Woods în 1945, când dolarul american a devenit moneda de referinţă şi de rezervă a statelor lumii. Cursurile de schimb au fost fixate faţă de dolar, şi implicit faţă de aur, marja de variaţie fiind de 1% http://www.money.ro/...ra_1021276.html

am luat 32 de pp, astept reactia si reintru pentru 4060

4130 la mine primul target de scalp si daca nu ma scoate cu ce ramane ar fi 4060

The importance of the weekend news related to Consob is that there is an implicit threat that a regulatory solution could be used to prevent speculators taking out shorts on financials/banks. The spec community will have to think hard about the exit when taking positions related to contagion risks

traim vremuri de 2 lei, ce sa mai...

si mai e si linia de trend de buy cea lunga

c-am arata de sell azi pana ies baietii din sedinta, problema e cu China, care se baga cand vrea ea si cu cat vrea ea pe buy.

de aia niciodata nu spun niciodata. Azi e laie maine e balaie.

Sell ul de azi si Gapul: Liderii europeni sunt pentru prima oară pregătiti să accepte că Atena ar trebui să intre in incapacitate de plata pe unele dintre obligaţiunile sale, ca parte a unui nou plan de salvare pentru Grecia, care ar pune datoria tarii pe un nivel sustenabil. FT.com Tot saptamana asta avem rezultatele pentru Stres-Testul bancilor Europene dar si accentuarea tensiuni privind situatia Italiei. “The news around Greece is not good -- it implies that any bailouts that may be required elsewhere could be given the same treatment, which makes sovereign bonds in those countries look less attractive,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. “We’re waiting on meetings of EU ministers, but it’s hard to imagine them coming out with anything that will be supportive.” Bloomberg.com

Ce vrea sa zica femeia este ca, intr adevar, jocurile politice duse la extrem chiar ne pot duce intr-un mic haos in caz ca nu se cade la pace, In cazul asta, toti banii aruncati de Ben cu QE1 si 2 vor fi de prisos sau si toti banii dati de Trichet asijderea

De ce nu sunt short Euro. O stiti pe Doamna Lagarde acum Sefa de la FMI Iata ce zice: Intrarea Statelor Unite în incapacitate de plată ar avea "consecinţe deplorabile" atât pentru ţară, cât şi pentru restul lumii, a declarat, duminică, directorul general al fondului Monetar Internaţional (FMI), Christine Lagarde. continuarea pe http://www.realitatea.net/lagarde-intrarea-sua-in-incapacitate-de-plata-ar-avea-consecinte-deplorabile_851833.html

Cuvant inainte Daca eu, Barbones sunt "nebun" si caut fundament in tot ceea ce fac inseamna ca traiesc intr-o "lume de nebuni" care se joaca cu valutele lumii, nebuni pentru ca nu-si dau seama ca e destul doar sa te uiti la grafic si sa gasesti locul ideal ce aduce profit doar cu analize pur tehnice. Michael Bolduc has seen his account wiped out three times since he started trading currencies. Yet he still keeps returning to the high-risk, high-reward foreign-exchange market for more. Many people call it gambling—and he agrees. Mr. Bolduc, a 52-year-old bill collector in Denver who began currency trading in 2003 after trading stocks for years, cites the ease of opening an account and getting a free charting program up and running quickly. He is one of a rapidly growing number of retail forex traders around the world. “There seems to be so much money that can be made,” he says. Forex is the biggest financial market in the world, with some $4 trillion traded each day. While it is dominated by big banks, corporations and private investment funds, the retail segment is the fastest-growing, according to Bank for International Settlements. Daily retail volume in 2010 was $313 billion, up from $300 million in 2000, according to Boston-based research firm Aite Group LLC—which estimates volume will rise by at least 14% in 2011 alone. Many forces are driving the boom, from stock-market volatility to a rise in online programs that have made forex easier than ever to trade. Giants like Citigroup Inc. have launched online currency-trading platforms geared toward smaller account sizes. Yet upstart online platforms like Oanda Corp. and Forex Capital Markets’ FXCM are capturing much of the retail sector with smaller balance requirements, tighter trading spreads and low fees. A customer can open an account at Oanda with just a $1 balance, for example, while Citi FX Pro requires a minimum balance of $10,000. All this comes at a time of rising volatility in currency markets caused by looming debt problems in the U.S. and Europe and signs of slowing U.S. growth. That volatility has been especially magnified in currency trading. In recent months the dollar fell to a record low against Japan’s yen, dropping by more than 4% on the day it sank to that record low. Within 24 hours of hitting the low, the dollar was back up 7.5% against the yen from its record bottom. Forex’s frenetic pace can be brutal to rookies and sophisticates alike. Managing proper trade sizes and rapid price movements—all while using “leverage,” or borrowed money, to amp up bets—can be devilishly difficult; one bad trade can blow up an entire account. The bottom line: Proceed with caution. “I think individuals should allocate zero dollars to currency trading,” says Joshua Brown, vice president of investments at Fusion Analytics Investment Partners LLC, an asset-management firm in New York. “To go to an online brokerage and think you’re doing anything more than gambling is foolish.” Some advisers say there is a place for trading currencies—albeit as part of a broader investment strategy. “If you are an investor looking for diversification, FX offers a real opportunity,” says David Rodriguez, currency strategist at dailyFX.com, the research arm of FXCM. For example, traders looking to reduce the interest-rate risk of their overseas bond investments can buy the currency of that same country, since a currency often strengthens when rates rise, he says. For those who want to try their luck, here are some tips: The Basics Currencies trade in pairs, with investors buying one currency and selling another at the same time. The U.S. dollar/yen and euro/U.S. dollar are two of the most popular trading pairs; other popular ones include the British pound, Swiss franc and the Canadian and Australian dollars. In a U.S. dollar/yen trade, for example, the amount of yen you can buy for one dollar is currently ¥80.65. If you bet on the dollar, the higher the number rises, the more you would make, and vice versa. Mostly, the vice-versa scenario plays out: Only about 30% of all retail forex trades are profitable, according to Aite Group, largely because of traders’ lack of education and experience in dealing with a market dominated by institutions. Commission costs, which run about $10 to $20 for a standard contract, also can add up quickly. Traders often make bad trades far more damaging by using leverage, which can be as high as 50-to-1. Sure, profitable trades can be big: A fully leveraged $1,000 bet the euro would fall in relation to the U.S. dollar on July 1, for example, could have netted as much as $500 by Thursday afternoon. But even a small move the other way could wipe out your entire stake. Forex used to be even riskier: Late last year, the National Futures Association, an independent self-regulator of futures trading in the U.S., cut the maximum ratio level for common currency pairs, such as the euro/U.S. dollar or U.S. dollar/yen, to 50-to-1 from 100-to-1. More-obscure pairs, which don’t trade in such high volumes and thus are prone to bigger swings, are now restricted to a 25-to-1 leverage ratio, such as the U.S. dollar/Czech koruna and U.S. dollar/Mexican peso. The lower leverage ratios mean a retail customer who put $1,000 into an account before the ratio was changed, and earned $100 in a month of trading euro/U.S. dollar or U.S. dollar/yen pairs, would now need to start with $2,000 in the account to earn that same $100. The new rules also reduce potential losses by an equal amount. Until the retail forex market’s explosive expansion, regulators generally assumed the sophisticated institutional investors who dominated the currency market could look after themselves without extra regulatory checks and balances. Now, regulators like the NFA and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are trying to figure out how to protect ordinary folks from being crushed in a market whose genesis was as a hedging tool for big companies and investors, not as a betting vehicle for day traders. Regulators often focus more on simple warnings than actually educating customers on how to set up trades and manage the pitfalls of trading, analysts say. As a result, many traders enter the market, quickly lose their initial investment—and never trade again. Professionals call them the “one and dones.” How to Trade Safely • Limit your forex trading. In general, experts recommend that small investors devote no more than a few percentage points of their overall portfolio to forex trading in order to limit any possible damage. • Size your bet right. Among the risks that traders should be aware of before they make their first transaction: “overtrading.” That happens when customers trade a position that is too large compared with the size of their account. Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at GAIN Capital Holdings Inc.’s Forex.com trading platform and co-author of the book “Currency Trading for Dummies,” recommends never putting more than 5% to 10% of an account balance into one trade. Overtrading often comes from a lack of a plan, Mr. Dolan says. Traders need to develop a strategy based on fundamental and technical analysis before initiating a trade. Novice traders often get caught up in quick price movements and the potential for huge gains. That can lead them to lose focus on their strategy and ultimately end up with big losses. Yet the allure and adrenaline of a high-risk environment draw some back repeatedly. Others’ lack of tolerance for steep losses means they lose their initial investment and never return. Timing—and luck—play a big role in many forex trades. Mr. Bolduc, the Denver day trader, says his worst-ever trade, which involved multiple currencies, including the dollar, euro and Swiss franc, lost $8,000 over a long period of time. Conversely, he says he once made $2,500 “in a very short period of time” trading the euro-dollar pair by error—he mistakenly left open a trade order during the release of an economic report, leading to a rapid payoff. • Set limits. One way to limit the damage is to set up a “stop-loss” order, which automatically exits a position when a certain price is hit, limiting losses. Following Mr. Dolan’s advice, for example, a trader with a $5,000 account wouldn’t want to risk losing more than $500 on any particular trade and should set up a stop-loss order accordingly. A trader might determine that the euro is about to go up against the U.S. dollar, and that a nice entry point is $1.4500. If that investor buys euros and sells dollars, he might place a stop-loss order at $1.4460, limiting his losses. If the trade is a standard-size one—often measured as 100,000 units—a drop from $1.4500 to $1.4460 would be equivalent to a loss of $400. Traders also can use “take-profit” levels, or orders set up to automatically cash out at a preset profit, Mr. Dolan says. Take-profit levels keep traders from losing profits when currencies abruptly change direction, which often happens when economic reports or announcements are released. In the earlier scenario of the euro and the dollar, the trader could set up a take-profit order at $1.4600, which would lock in a profit of $1,000. • Beware of trading programs. Most small investors also should avoid automated-trading programs that promise huge returns in a short time period. These programs—also known as “expert advisers,” or EAs—execute trades in milliseconds and may raise even greater risks for unsophisticated investors. New EAs pop up online all the time and have names like IrisFx, Kangaroo EA and Forex Combo System. Their prevalence has grown rapidly in the past few years, analysts say. The Bank for International Settlements cited the rise of automated-trading systems as one of the key drivers of the market’s growth in recent years. The systems, which are similar to the ones used by hedge funds, can automatically execute trades when specific parameters such as price levels are hit. Those trades often occur at much faster speeds than a human could input and click through a trade online. That faster execution can enable better pricing and the ability to take advantage of smaller moves in markets. But for all but the most experienced traders, the systems can have hidden dangers. As market dynamics change or news alters trends, the programs often “collapse at some point,” says Walter Peters, an American living in Sydney. Mr. Peters started out as a retail trader and went on to develop his own automated programs, and now manages other people’s forex accounts. The programs that advertise huge returns in short periods are likely to crash and burn the fastest, he says. Computer programs that show smaller but steadier gains over long periods are the best bets. • Research. Retail brokerages often provide vast amounts of data and historical trading information that can help inform trades and be used to spot trends. Some platforms, like Forex.com, also provide news feeds that give customers information that could be affecting the foreign-exchange market. Nearly any major economic report or major news event can affect a currency, so news websites also can be tapped as resources for determining which way currencies might move. • Diversify. There are other ways to minimize those potential losing periods that can frustrate and eventually drive retail customers away. Traders should diversify trading across multiple currencies or simultaneously use strategies that work in different market conditions, analysts say. Mr. Peters says he puts only 10% of his money into automated trading programs, leaving the rest for manual trades. Winsor Hoang, who lives in Vancouver, British Columbia, and sells access to his trading strategies, has three automated-trading systems running at all times. The programs perform best in different market conditions, so when one might be losing, the others might be winning, he says. Write to Stephen L. Bernard at stephen.bernard@dowjones.com via Is Currency Trading Worth the Risk? – WSJ.com.

Q. How should investors approach currency investing both in terms of hedging and seeking investment returns? What are the opportunities and risks? Clarida: At PIMCO, we like to separate in our own minds an investment decision on a security with a separate decision on whether we want to take the related currency bet. In today’s markets, investors are generally able to hedge currency exposure. Also, certain PIMCO strategies may invest directly in currencies. Broadly, our approach to investing in currencies is to think of them as a way to express our macro views about opportunities in a number of countries. With our New Normal worldview of headwinds to growth in developed markets and tailwinds in emerging markets, we now generally look at emerging market and G-10 currencies simultaneously and with the same analytical framework. As I discussed earlier, we anticipate EM policymakers will allow their currencies to appreciate in the years ahead as they nurture domestic consumption. And in contrast to the ‘80s and ‘90s, in recent years EM currencies have been less volatile than G-10 currencies. Thus, EM currencies can be attractive opportunities. Of course, as with any financial investment, there are risks to investing in currencies. The primary risk, in our view, is that there are periods in which volatility spikes and in which there are potentially significant drops in a currency’s relative valuation. There is a saying in the foreign currency markets that currency trades work until they don’t. And so certainly anyone thinking of investing in currencies should also consider if portfolio managers are appropriately factoring in such tail risk. That is certainly a focus at PIMCO.

So what have we learned today? There is no sovereign debt, not matter how rank, that cannot be presented to the ECB as collateralThat the slowdown in US growth in the second quarter of the year looks increasingly likely to have been a result of the Japanese earthquake and terrible tornadoes and floods rather than a cyclical slowdownThat buying against the 100-day moving average tends to be a good risk-reward playWe’re now back in the middle of a large triangular consolidation, meaning we’re pretty much in no-man’s land on a medium-term perspective. If you missed the bounce, stay patient. If you are itching to sell, use 1.4440/50 as your backstop. A break back above that level will likely see is work higher within the range, just as it set off a fast decline when we broke below earlier this week. www.forexlive.com

da, probabil ca nu va sari ca ars catre 1.50 ceea ce este si normal in Iulie si August. Pe de alta parte diferenta a ajuns de 1 punct dobanda intre dolar euro. Ce sa zic, eu as intra long Marti sau Miercuri cu risc minim cu SL pe la 41 doar daca vad ca si China e activa si linia de trend de buy ramane in picioare. NFP ul e creu de prezis, Cererile azi de somaj sunt in scadere, deci sunt sanse de un NFP bun, dar cum NFP ul rareori tine directia initala fara corectie mare chiar si peste 100% din inpuls nici acolo nu as intra, Prefer scalpul de la ora 6 de inchidere de Londra si sa intru mai pe long term Marti sau Mercuri. Mai vedem, oricum plec pe la mare maine asa ca voi face trade cu picioarele in mare si cu berile la rece.

Euro la nivel optim de buy. Ce zice Trichet ? Haha, aveam 2 posturi pregatile pentru azi si din gresala l-am activat pe cel de plecat la mare. Chiar si asa tot intr-acolo ma-ndrept. Euro devine interesant.

Pe ce te bazezi cand spui ca SUA e mai tare? Eu nu am date concrete,informatii care sa spuna care dintre cele 2 poate mai repede sau mai incet sa se refaca. Fiecare tara(economie) are particularitatile ei, SUA in relatie cu China iar Europa cu propria organizare financiara ( in curs de organizare de cand a aparut Euro) . deci niciuna nu ar fi mai breaza. Comparand cele 2 valute azi si nu acum 5 ani pot spune ca Dolarul are nevoie sa fie slab mai mult decat are nevoie Marca Germana (Euro). Sua are creste sub nivelul asteptat pe cand Germania are boom economic de vreo 2 ani. Intr o eventuala degringolada mai mare decat prima, Germania probabil ca va putea sustine mult mai mult tarile din UE decat ar putea sa-si sustina SUA . Falimentul statelor Americane este si el asteptat sa inceapa, California deja a capitualat oficial acu ceva timp, am uitat, 1 an sau 2 parca traderii retail nu au considerat asta important. De ce oare? Ca Euro poate ajunge la 1.18 candva? cu siguranta ca poate ajunge doar ca ce ne interezeaza este: cand? Sigur ca orice se poate intampla, nimeni nu stie viitorul doar ca de 1 an, Euro e tot la deal din motivele spune un pic mai sus si nu am inca indicii clare ca cei care cumpara tare Euro se opresc in vara asta ca sa intru intr=adevar pe sell pentru final de an. Incerc cu analiza stirilor sa fac si bani , deci sa intru pe directii previzibile pentru un target mic, 2 3 sute de pips iar perechea asta are tendinta Up. nici tehnic si nici fundamental nu am motiv de sell . Astept azi sa vad rata, sa vad reactia in urma ratei, sa vad somajul la americani, sa vad aurul, petrolul ce fac, si oi vedea sapt, viitoare daca merita sa intru in piata. Oricum riscul e la minim , deci chit ca pierd sau ca voi castiga tot un drac e. Vreau sa vad toate astea pentru a-mi face o idee pentru toamna. Soros si ca multi alti speculatori nu au autoritatea lui Ben sau Trichet. Daca vrei totusi sa asculti un mare speculator citeste situl lui Pimco care este cel mai mare fond mutual de investitii in prezent . Nu intru mai mult in detalii aici pentru ca nu ma pricep dar intre ce spune o banca centrala si un speculator tind sa aplec urechea mai mult primei variante.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=286Wj2nJxPI&feature=player_embedded

Nu ai vazut-o pentru ca default ul SUA nu se compara cu default ul Greciei. SUA nu are o Germanie. Asta vezi tu defapt pe grafice: cele 2 QE si acum o eventuala downgradare a mariei sale SUA. Cum vorba aia din batrani functioneaza si azi am sa o repet: Piata intotdeauna are dreptate! si se vede pe cursul Euro Majoritatea covarsitoare a traderilor pe care ii cunosc sunt SELL EURO de 1 an pentru ca se uita pe grafice si le mai ciuleste urechea cand aud de criza europeana cand defapt realitatea este pe dos in raportul Euro/Dolar. Dolarul a pierdut si va pierde teren pentru ca este multiplicat de Ben pe deaoparte si pentru ca a intrat in dizgratiile BRIC pe de alta parte. Asa ca, chartul iti va arata realiteatea mereu. Daca faci comparatie cu ce era Euro acum 10 ani nu e bine. Nu cred ca astepti un target pe tf lunar pentru ca nu te cred. Nu cred ca ma hazardez cand voi spune ca daca SUA nu se revigoreaza economic euro il putem vedea in primavara viitoare chiar si la 2.0 fata de dolar, ca cea mai agresiva masura a FED de redresare prin devaluare. Lucrul care se vorbeste acum de Grecia, ca ar putea iesi de sub Euro , sa reintre pe Drahme si sa se devalueze si astfel sa se salveze , acelasi lucru il poate face FED ca o ultima arma (mortala in schimb pentru China). De aceea China diversifica si nu de azi, pentru ca stie ce poate face FED si ce efecte ar avea trezoreria ei. Nu privi chart ul doar din perspectiva SELL ului la Euro pentru ca perechea are 2 valute in componenta iar Dolarul puternic nu este bun pentru SUA azi. Uita te de curiozitate pe index ul dolarului si ai sa vezi tendinta la Euro defapt.

Nu arata bine de mult si se stie tot de mult ca anumite tari vor intra in faliment in frunte cu SUA. Totul in schinb are o rezolvare, Grecia chiar daca va intra in faliment asta nu inseamna ca va dispare, Nu este prima oara cand se intampla asa ceva. SUA a mai fost in aceeasi situatie prin 80" si nu a murit nimeni doar ca acum nu este doar o tara sau doar un continent ci pentru ca intreaga lume este mai mult ca oricand conectata economic si politic orice problema economica se resimte peste tot. Criza este mondiala tocmai datorita globalizarii economiei, altfel ... sti cum se zice, : era doar la ei, acolo!

Maine avem Rata Dobanzii la Euro. Ultima sansa sa vedem Euro la deal de la un loc bun unde este dus acum. In caz de mentinere a ratei la acelasi nivel si daca China continua sa vanda reintru in vacanta pana in Septembrie.

The euro advanced versus the dollar for a fifth day as traders increased bets the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy and Greece progressed in staving off a default. The euro headed for a weekly advance against 12 of its 16 major peers after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval to implement an austerity plan needed to keep aid flowing to his nation. The Dollar Index was was set for its biggest weekly decline since January before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturing growth slowed in May. The New Zealand dollar weakened on dimmer prospects for exports after a Chinese manufacturing index fell. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/dollar-advances-on-outlook-for-u-s-economy-aussie-drops-on-china-data.html

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Qq2z2IQv

iar peste 1.50 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/greece-to-receive-up-to-124-billion-in-new-aid.html

mai e maine un vot. Oricum e final de luna deci de sapt viitoare. Am inchis buy ul.