Sari la conținut

Barbones

Traders
 Vezi Profil  Vezi activitatea

  • Număr mesaje

    1.192

  • Înregistrat

  • Ultima Vizită

  • Zile Câștigate

    69

 Tip conținut 

Intrări Blog postat de Barbones

  4. Barbones
    atat. Ma intrebam acu cateva zile ce dracu e putred la Casa Alba de toti vand Dolari pe franci, Jen si Aur? Iata ca "cineva" stia de povestea asta si a fugit cu meleoanele acolo unde , in caz de galceava, nu pierde. Se repeta istoria. Pacat ca nu si paternurile intraday.
     
    We would emphasize that the USD reaction against most currencies will probably follow broader market reaction. In particular, as emphasized below, if equity and commodity markets keep sliding globally, the main reaction is likely to cut long positions in equities, EM and commodities. These are mainly funded by short USD, so whether or not the safe-haven status of the USD is impaired over the long term, a downward shock to markets is likely to be USD positive in the near term. This is hardly USD positive once things settle down, but before they settle down, the short term will likely dominate the long-term.
     
    As we discuss below, there may be concern in FX markets that the EUR AAAs are not solid, given the political and economic issues facing the euro zone and how conditions have worsened since the agencies last commented on ratings. Official and private investors instinctively may want to sell USD and buy EUR, but the EUR sovereign issues do not look better because the US’ looks worse, and a global risk-off response would be EUR negative. The key immediate investor worry is that no set of European policymakers is willing to buy sufficient peripheral and quasi-peripheral bonds to narrow spreads, so there is little pushback against the panic on Spain and Italy.
     
    The biggest upside for the EUR would come if the ECB bought Spanish and Italian bonds and that might be enough to generate a global response among risk-correlated currencies, if it was done in sufficient size to convince the investors that contagion was overdone.
     
    Read more: http://www.businessi...8#ixzz1ULIaZkuf
     
     
    Finance Leaders Urgently Discuss Market Stability
     
     
     
    The world's leading economies on Sunday urgently discussed the stability of financial markets after a historic U.S. credit downgrade rattled investors already worried about European debt crises.
    Deputies from the Group of 20 advanced and emerging economies talked by telephone Sunday about proposals to minimize market shocks, South Korea's central bank said. And the financial ministers from the Group of Seven economies planned talks before Asian markets open Monday.
     
    The countries are concerned Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating late Friday will shake global markets. In a sign of the fallout, Middle East markets tumbled Sunday on the first day of business after the downgrade.
    Kyodo News agency reported Sunday that G-7 deputy finance ministers had agreed on a conference call among the higher-level ministers, who are likely to discuss the U.S. downgrade as well as the eurozone sovereign debt concerns.
     
    Japan's Senior Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi hinted Sunday that Tokyo would intervene again in the currency market if excessive fluctuations continue. It acted Thursday to weaken the yen and protect Japan's recovery from an earthquake and tsunami in March.
    "It's not over yet. We will act again if we see speculative moves," Igarashi said on a talk show Sunday on public broadcaster NHK, referring to a possibility for more rounds of yen-selling intervention.
     
    http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=14248868
     
     
     
    Euro-Area Central Banks to Hold Crisis Call
     

    Euro-region central bank governors will hold emergency talks today intended to stop Spain and Italy from becoming the next victims of the sovereign-debt crisis and limit fallout from the first U.S. credit-rating cut in history.
    The central bank chiefs will convene by conference call at 6 p.m. Paris time, said a euro-area central bank official who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. A spokesman for the European Central Bank declined to comment. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven countries may confer by phone as early as tomorrow morning in Tokyo before Asian markets open, Kyodo News reported, citing people familiar with the plan.
    The flurry of talks comes as the U.S. downgrade by Standard & Poor’sthreatens to further derail efforts to stop the debt crisis from engulfing the euro-area’s third and fourth-largest economies.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-06/euro-region-central-banks-will-conference-tomorrow-on-debt-u-s-downgrade.html
  8. Barbones
    BEN e dupa colt. Totul e mai complicat ca acum 5 minute.
    Probabil ca ne pregatim de o noua masiva cadere a Dolarului in fata AUD, NZD, Jen(probabil) Euro, Lira si CAD.
    Nu m-as mira sa vin din concediu in Septembrie si Euro sa fie la 1.5
    Si uite cum in 5 minute, din ce parea un sell off la 1.41 trecem la 1.4399 target.
     
    Sansele ca QE3 sa apara au crescut considerabil.
  10. Barbones
    August orice ar fi nu mai intru , Dupa NFP ul din Septembrie e de joaca, deocamdata la sala cu mine.
    Euro termina pozitiv luna. Cand s-or intoarce si Trichet si Ben din concedii avem treaba nu gluma. Euro dupa o corectie pe Sept are sanse la 1,6 dupa cum vad economia SUA azi, si nu are nicio legatura cu "incapacitatea de plata". In SUA a inceput campania.
     
    Cine stie sa scrie coduri are un musteriu gras pentru mt4. Astept provincia.
  11. Barbones
    tp://www.ziare.com...pag2#comentarii
    Business > Economie > criza economica mondiala http://ziareromania.ro/img/minus.jpg http://ziareromania.ro/img/plus.jpg
     
    http://thumbs.ziare.com/O-ipoteza-halucinanta--Europa--amenintata-de-forte-malefice-/ab03acf74fa8af0f5/240/0/1/70/O-ipoteza-halucinanta--Europa--amenintata-de-forte-malefice-.jpg Pornind de la amenintarile necrutatoare si greu de explicat asupra economiei unor tari europene, profesorul Edward Tetreau de la HEC (Paris) lanseaza ideea ca dificultatile financiare ale tarilor UE nu sunt de ordin institutional. Ele sunt, in principal, de ordin mafiot.
    Concret, o banda de speculatori, bine organizati si actionand in umbra anonimatului, loveste sistematic sistemul financiar al tarilor UE penru a le dobori una cate una. La momentul potrivit, speculatorii stiu ce au de facut ca sa profite, in beneficiul propriu, de haosul creat.
     
    Cine urmeaza dupa Grecia?
     
    Grecia a fost prima vizata. Lovitura era aproape de a reusi si poate reusea daca nu interveneau eforturile energice si conjugate ale Eurogrupului. Banda nu numai ca a ratat prima lovitura, dar a pierdut sume importante pe care le investise, contand pe o reusita de 100%.
     
    Faptul ca unele agentii de rating s-au grabit sa prezica inevitabila catastrofa a Greciei, il face pe autorul articolului din La Tribune sa nu excluda complicitati surprinzatoare. Cum actioneaza grupul si pe ce butoane apasa, asta nu stie nimeni, dar nu pare intamplator ca, dupa esuarea atacului in directia Greciei, alte tari se pomenesc, din senin, in dificulatate.
     
    Ai zice ca numai cand a devenit clar ca Portugalia si Irlanda au sanse sa fie salvate, taifunul si-a schimbat directia si s-a indreptat brusc spre Spania si Italia. Un observator atent nu poate scapa din vedere faptul ca interesele financiare ale unor fonduri de investitii sau organizatii bancare americane, britanice sau chiar europene ar fi avantajate de falimentarea unui stat sau a altuia.
     
    In opinia autorului, cea mai importanta masura pe care ar putea-o lua institutiile europene, inclusiv factorii politici, este sa identifice acesti speculatori ascunsi in umbra. Principiul transparentei nu numai ca le permite, dar ii si obliga. N-ar trebui sa ne acundem dupa deget si sa ne rusinam, punandu-ne o intrebare elementara: cine are interesul sa prabuseasca Europa?
     
    Iar, daca aflam cine, nimic nu opreste UE sa faca publice numele acelor institutii, organizatii sau grupuri, care ar fi gata sa loveasca mortal state intregi, pentru propriile lor intrerese.
     
    Timpul trece, iar Europa bate pasul pe loc
     
    In numele transparentei la care nu numai ca avem dreptul, dar pe care suntem chiar obligati s-o practicam, nimeni n-ar opri institutiile europene sa intocmeasca lista neagra a organizatiilor interesate in falimentarea unor state.
     
    Sa nu uitam ca lupta este pe viata si pe moarte: ori descoperim aceste forte malefice si le oprim in ceasul al doisprezecelea accesul pe pietele europene, ori - in ceasul al treisprezecelea - nimeni nu va putea opri falimentele.
     
    Este ciudata miopia pietelor financiare, care tot judeca tarile din zona euro, uitand de cazul a doua importante puteri extra-europene, care se prezinta cel putin la fel de lamentabil ca Grecia: Marea Britanie, cu deficitul ei de 9% din PIB si Statele Unite, care, dupa unele estimari, risca sa esueze in urmatoarele doua saptamani.
     
    Timpul insa trece implacabil si inca nu este clar ce asteapta responsabilii politici ai Europei, ca sa actioneze energic.
     
    Ce-i de facut?
     
    In primul rand, trebuie intocmita "lista neagra" a institutiilor sau organizatiilor care ar putea specula, profitand de caderea institutiilor financiare din zona euro.
     
    In al doilea rand, este necesara initiativa comuna franco-germana asupra pietelor, de exemplu, prin cumpararea masiva a titlurilor sau obligatiunilor privind datoriile suverane spaniole si italiene. Nu e un act de filantropie: pentru Franta si Germania, esuarea celor doua tari inseamna si esuarea propriilor lor banci.
     
    In al treilea rand trebuie ca, pana la data de 2 august, data dupa care guvernul SUA nu mai este autorizat sa se imprumute, cu riscul de a nu putea onora platile, Europa trebuie sa-si nominalizeze un ministru al Finantelor, avand ca principal obiectiv mutualizarea datoriilor nationale europene.
     
    Avem de ales: ori sta fiecare cu capul in nisip, ca strutul, ignorand pericolul, ori iesim din crizanumai printr-o uniune federala bugetara si fiscala - deci si politica.
     
    Timpul este scurt, dar, daca pentru a decide o actiune militara in Libia au trebuit cateva ore, poate ar fi sufieciente cateva saptamani pentru a corela finantele unor tari ca Germania Franta, Italia, Spania.
     
    Punctul de vedere al profesorului Edward Tetreau este indraznet, dar nu trebuie neglijat faptul ca apartine unei personalitati marcante din lumea universitara franceza si unui bun cunoscator al problemelor UE, cu studii si cercetari efectuate atat in Europa, cat si in SUA. http://ziareromania.ro/img/new/right_corner.jpg


    Victor Pitigoi http://thumbs.ziare.com/Victor-Pitigoi/72bc3916f280a767a/60/60/2/70/Victor-Pitigoi.jpgSenior editor Articole: 473 Comentarii:5409Aboneaza-te la articolele mele!

     
     
  12. Barbones
    GERMANIA | 14.07.2011
     
    Se apropie momentul adevărului
    http://www.dw-world.de/image/0,,6569480_1,00.jpg
    Criza datoriilor în Europa escaladează. Deşi situaţia de pe pieţele financiare s-a calmat, oarecum, miercuri, după şocul provocat de verdictul agenţiilor de rating privind evoluţiile din Italia şi Irlanda, semnalele de alarmă nu mai pot rămâne neauzite.

     
    Scenariile cele mai sumbre prevestesc sfârşitul uniunii monetare europene. Guvernul de la Berlin se vede tot mai des confruntat cu critici, reproşându-i-se că amână soluţionarea crizei datoriilor, ceea ce ar face-o să devină şi mai costisitoare.
    Criză sistemică
     
    Responsabilii politici nu s-au ferit să spună lucrurilor pe nume. "Criza a devenit deja una sistemică" a declarat Olli Rehn, comisarul european pentru afaceri economice şi monetare. Cuvântul "sistemic" a devenit un sinonim al crizei financiare de acum trei ani şi ne indică faptul că o bancă se prăbuşeşte, atrăgând altele, după sine, în prăpastie. În cazul crizei datoriilor europene, aceasta ar însemna că Grecia, urmată de Portugalia, apoi de Irlanda şi poate chiar de Italia, vor cădea una după alta ca piesele de domino.
     
    Iată de ce se înmulţesc vocile celor care pledează pentru o ştergere a datoriilor elene, ceea ce ar putea diminua cumva presiunea din "cazanul euro". Până şi ministrul de finanţe german, Wolfgang Schäuble, lasă să se înţeleagă că un astfel de scenariu nu mai e de neimaginat.
     
    În aceeaşi direcţie se înscrie şi declaraţia făcută de şeful Commerzbank, Martin Blessing, care constată cum neîncrederea şi nesiguranţa au luat amploare, în ultimele zile, în rândul clienţilor de bancă germani.
     
    "De aceea", spune Blessing într-un interviu publicat miercuri de cotidianul de mare tiraj Bild, "trebuie găsită o altă soluţie pentru Grecia, decât să i se ofere mereu noi credite".
     
    Această altă soluţie ar fi, în opinia sa, ştergerea unei părţi a datoriilor elene. "O astfel de măsură", mai arată şeful celei mai mari bănci particulare din Germania, "nu ar provoca un seism veritabil pentru băncile private din zona euro."
     
    Şi Lars Feld, profesor la Universitatea din Freiburg, membru al Consiliului de experţi care evaluează economia germană, se pronunţă, în paginile aceluiaşi cotidian din Hamburg, pentru un "haircut" - o "tunsoare" - şi afirmă că "o ştergere a datoriilor Greciei nu mai e de evitat".
     
    Reeşalonarea datoriilor
     
    Din nou în discuţie sunt şi obligaţiunile pentru întreaga zonă euro, aşa-numitele eurobonds. Alt expert german, Peter Bofinger, de la Universitatea din Würzburg, declară cotidianului Rheinische Post: "Nu ne vom linişti până ce nu vom avea aceste eurobonds".
     
    Guvernul german s-a opus până acum cu vehemenţă propunerii. Dobânzile pentru ogligaţiunile europene ar putea fi cu mult mai ridicate decât pentru cele de stat, germane. Germania ar trebui, ca şi celelalte ţări ale zonei euro, să garanteze nu doar pentru propriile datorii, ci şi pentru cele europene. E limpede că până la urmă se va ajunge totuşi la o reeşalonare a datoriilor Greciei.
     
    Mohamed El-Erian, şeful celui mai mare fond de investiţii în obligaţiuni la nivel mondial, PIMCO, estimează că aceasta se va întâmpla în următoarele şase luni ale anului.
     
    Autor: Henrik Böhme/ Medana Weident
    Redactor: Petre M. Iancu
     
    http://www.dw-world....5231040,00.html
  13. Barbones
    Cuvant inainte
    Daca eu, Barbones sunt "nebun" si caut fundament in tot ceea ce fac inseamna ca traiesc intr-o "lume de nebuni" care se joaca cu valutele lumii, nebuni pentru ca nu-si dau seama ca e destul doar sa te uiti la grafic si sa gasesti locul ideal ce aduce profit doar cu analize pur tehnice.
     
     
    Michael Bolduc has seen his account wiped out three times since he started trading currencies. Yet he still keeps returning to the high-risk, high-reward foreign-exchange market for more.
     
    Many people call it gambling—and he agrees.
     
    Mr. Bolduc, a 52-year-old bill collector in Denver who began currency trading in 2003 after trading stocks for years, cites the ease of opening an account and getting a free charting program up and running quickly. He is one of a rapidly growing number of retail forex traders around the world.
     
    “There seems to be so much money that can be made,” he says.
     
    Forex is the biggest financial market in the world, with some $4 trillion traded each day. While it is dominated by big banks, corporations and private investment funds, the retail segment is the fastest-growing, according to Bank for International Settlements. Daily retail volume in 2010 was $313 billion, up from $300 million in 2000, according to Boston-based research firm Aite Group LLC—which estimates volume will rise by at least 14% in 2011 alone.
     
    Many forces are driving the boom, from stock-market volatility to a rise in online programs that have made forex easier than ever to trade. Giants like Citigroup Inc. have launched online currency-trading platforms geared toward smaller account sizes. Yet upstart online platforms like Oanda Corp. and Forex Capital Markets’ FXCM are capturing much of the retail sector with smaller balance requirements, tighter trading spreads and low fees. A customer can open an account at Oanda with just a $1 balance, for example, while Citi FX Pro requires a minimum balance of $10,000.
     
    All this comes at a time of rising volatility in currency markets caused by looming debt problems in the U.S. and Europe and signs of slowing U.S. growth. That volatility has been especially magnified in currency trading. In recent months the dollar fell to a record low against Japan’s yen, dropping by more than 4% on the day it sank to that record low. Within 24 hours of hitting the low, the dollar was back up 7.5% against the yen from its record bottom.
     
    Forex’s frenetic pace can be brutal to rookies and sophisticates alike. Managing proper trade sizes and rapid price movements—all while using “leverage,” or borrowed money, to amp up bets—can be devilishly difficult; one bad trade can blow up an entire account.
     
    The bottom line: Proceed with caution.
     
    “I think individuals should allocate zero dollars to currency trading,” says Joshua Brown, vice president of investments at Fusion Analytics Investment Partners LLC, an asset-management firm in New York. “To go to an online brokerage and think you’re doing anything more than gambling is foolish.”
     
    Some advisers say there is a place for trading currencies—albeit as part of a broader investment strategy.
     
    “If you are an investor looking for diversification, FX offers a real opportunity,” says David Rodriguez, currency strategist at dailyFX.com, the research arm of FXCM. For example, traders looking to reduce the interest-rate risk of their overseas bond investments can buy the currency of that same country, since a currency often strengthens when rates rise, he says.
     
    For those who want to try their luck, here are some tips:
     
     
    The Basics
    Currencies trade in pairs, with investors buying one currency and selling another at the same time. The U.S. dollar/yen and euro/U.S. dollar are two of the most popular trading pairs; other popular ones include the British pound, Swiss franc and the Canadian and Australian dollars.
     
    In a U.S. dollar/yen trade, for example, the amount of yen you can buy for one dollar is currently ¥80.65. If you bet on the dollar, the higher the number rises, the more you would make, and vice versa.
     
    Mostly, the vice-versa scenario plays out: Only about 30% of all retail forex trades are profitable, according to Aite Group, largely because of traders’ lack of education and experience in dealing with a market dominated by institutions. Commission costs, which run about $10 to $20 for a standard contract, also can add up quickly.
    Traders often make bad trades far more damaging by using leverage, which can be as high as 50-to-1. Sure, profitable trades can be big: A fully leveraged $1,000 bet the euro would fall in relation to the U.S. dollar on July 1, for example, could have netted as much as $500 by Thursday afternoon. But even a small move the other way could wipe out your entire stake.
     
    Forex used to be even riskier: Late last year, the National Futures Association, an independent self-regulator of futures trading in the U.S., cut the maximum ratio level for common currency pairs, such as the euro/U.S. dollar or U.S. dollar/yen, to 50-to-1 from 100-to-1. More-obscure pairs, which don’t trade in such high volumes and thus are prone to bigger swings, are now restricted to a 25-to-1 leverage ratio, such as the U.S. dollar/Czech koruna and U.S. dollar/Mexican peso.
     
    The lower leverage ratios mean a retail customer who put $1,000 into an account before the ratio was changed, and earned $100 in a month of trading euro/U.S. dollar or U.S. dollar/yen pairs, would now need to start with $2,000 in the account to earn that same $100. The new rules also reduce potential losses by an equal amount.
     
    Until the retail forex market’s explosive expansion, regulators generally assumed the sophisticated institutional investors who dominated the currency market could look after themselves without extra regulatory checks and balances.
     
    Now, regulators like the NFA and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are trying to figure out how to protect ordinary folks from being crushed in a market whose genesis was as a hedging tool for big companies and investors, not as a betting vehicle for day traders.
     
    Regulators often focus more on simple warnings than actually educating customers on how to set up trades and manage the pitfalls of trading, analysts say. As a result, many traders enter the market, quickly lose their initial investment—and never trade again. Professionals call them the “one and dones.”
     
     
    How to Trade Safely
    • Limit your forex trading. In general, experts recommend that small investors devote no more than a few percentage points of their overall portfolio to forex trading in order to limit any possible damage.
     
    • Size your bet right. Among the risks that traders should be aware of before they make their first transaction: “overtrading.” That happens when customers trade a position that is too large compared with the size of their account. Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at GAIN Capital Holdings Inc.’s Forex.com trading platform and co-author of the book “Currency Trading for Dummies,” recommends never putting more than 5% to 10% of an account balance into one trade. Overtrading often comes from a lack of a plan, Mr. Dolan says. Traders need to develop a strategy based on fundamental and technical analysis before initiating a trade.
     
    Novice traders often get caught up in quick price movements and the potential for huge gains. That can lead them to lose focus on their strategy and ultimately end up with big losses. Yet the allure and adrenaline of a high-risk environment draw some back repeatedly. Others’ lack of tolerance for steep losses means they lose their initial investment and never return.
     
    Timing—and luck—play a big role in many forex trades. Mr. Bolduc, the Denver day trader, says his worst-ever trade, which involved multiple currencies, including the dollar, euro and Swiss franc, lost $8,000 over a long period of time. Conversely, he says he once made $2,500 “in a very short period of time” trading the euro-dollar pair by error—he mistakenly left open a trade order during the release of an economic report, leading to a rapid payoff.
     
    • Set limits. One way to limit the damage is to set up a “stop-loss” order, which automatically exits a position when a certain price is hit, limiting losses.
     
    Following Mr. Dolan’s advice, for example, a trader with a $5,000 account wouldn’t want to risk losing more than $500 on any particular trade and should set up a stop-loss order accordingly.
     
    A trader might determine that the euro is about to go up against the U.S. dollar, and that a nice entry point is $1.4500. If that investor buys euros and sells dollars, he might place a stop-loss order at $1.4460, limiting his losses. If the trade is a standard-size one—often measured as 100,000 units—a drop from $1.4500 to $1.4460 would be equivalent to a loss of $400.
     
    Traders also can use “take-profit” levels, or orders set up to automatically cash out at a preset profit, Mr. Dolan says. Take-profit levels keep traders from losing profits when currencies abruptly change direction, which often happens when economic reports or announcements are released. In the earlier scenario of the euro and the dollar, the trader could set up a take-profit order at $1.4600, which would lock in a profit of $1,000.
     
    • Beware of trading programs. Most small investors also should avoid automated-trading programs that promise huge returns in a short time period. These programs—also known as “expert advisers,” or EAs—execute trades in milliseconds and may raise even greater risks for unsophisticated investors. New EAs pop up online all the time and have names like IrisFx, Kangaroo EA and Forex Combo System. Their prevalence has grown rapidly in the past few years, analysts say. The Bank for International Settlements cited the rise of automated-trading systems as one of the key drivers of the market’s growth in recent years.
     
    The systems, which are similar to the ones used by hedge funds, can automatically execute trades when specific parameters such as price levels are hit. Those trades often occur at much faster speeds than a human could input and click through a trade online. That faster execution can enable better pricing and the ability to take advantage of smaller moves in markets.
     
    But for all but the most experienced traders, the systems can have hidden dangers. As market dynamics change or news alters trends, the programs often “collapse at some point,” says Walter Peters, an American living in Sydney. Mr. Peters started out as a retail trader and went on to develop his own automated programs, and now manages other people’s forex accounts.
    The programs that advertise huge returns in short periods are likely to crash and burn the fastest, he says. Computer programs that show smaller but steadier gains over long periods are the best bets.
     
    • Research. Retail brokerages often provide vast amounts of data and historical trading information that can help inform trades and be used to spot trends. Some platforms, like Forex.com, also provide news feeds that give customers information that could be affecting the foreign-exchange market.
     
    Nearly any major economic report or major news event can affect a currency, so news websites also can be tapped as resources for determining which way currencies might move.
     
    • Diversify. There are other ways to minimize those potential losing periods that can frustrate and eventually drive retail customers away. Traders should diversify trading across multiple currencies or simultaneously use strategies that work in different market conditions, analysts say.
     
    Mr. Peters says he puts only 10% of his money into automated trading programs, leaving the rest for manual trades. Winsor Hoang, who lives in Vancouver, British Columbia, and sells access to his trading strategies, has three automated-trading systems running at all times. The programs perform best in different market conditions, so when one might be losing, the others might be winning, he says.
     
    Write to Stephen L. Bernard at stephen.bernard@dowjones.com
     
    via Is Currency Trading Worth the Risk? – WSJ.com.

  14. Barbones

    pimco way

    De Barbones,

    Q. How should investors approach currency investing both in terms of hedging and seeking investment returns? What are the opportunities and risks?
     
    Clarida: At PIMCO, we like to separate in our own minds an investment decision on a security with a separate decision on whether we want to take the related currency bet. In today’s markets, investors are generally able to hedge currency exposure.
     
    Also, certain PIMCO strategies may invest directly in currencies. Broadly, our approach to investing in currencies is to think of them as a way to express our macro views about opportunities in a number of countries.
     
    With our New Normal worldview of headwinds to growth in developed markets and tailwinds in emerging markets, we now generally look at emerging market and G-10 currencies simultaneously and with the same analytical framework. As I discussed earlier, we anticipate EM policymakers will allow their currencies to appreciate in the years ahead as they nurture domestic consumption. And in contrast to the ‘80s and ‘90s, in recent years EM currencies have been less volatile than G-10 currencies. Thus, EM currencies can be attractive opportunities.
     
    Of course, as with any financial investment, there are risks to investing in currencies. The primary risk, in our view, is that there are periods in which volatility spikes and in which there are potentially significant drops in a currency’s relative valuation. There is a saying in the foreign currency markets that currency trades work until they don’t. And so certainly anyone thinking of investing in currencies should also consider if portfolio managers are appropriately factoring in such tail risk. That is certainly a focus at PIMCO.
  15. Barbones
    So what have we learned today?
     

    There is no sovereign debt, not matter how rank, that cannot be presented to the ECB as collateral That the slowdown in US growth in the second quarter of the year looks increasingly likely to have been a result of the Japanese earthquake and terrible tornadoes and floods rather than a cyclical slowdown That buying against the 100-day moving average tends to be a good risk-reward play We’re now back in the middle of a large triangular consolidation, meaning we’re pretty much in no-man’s land on a medium-term perspective. If you missed the bounce, stay patient. If you are itching to sell, use 1.4440/50 as your backstop. A break back above that level will likely see is work higher within the range, just as it set off a fast decline when we broke below earlier this week.
     
     
     
     
    www.forexlive.com
     
  16. Barbones
    The euro advanced versus the dollar for a fifth day as traders increased bets the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy and Greece progressed in staving off a default.
     
    The euro headed for a weekly advance against 12 of its 16 major peers after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval to implement an austerity plan needed to keep aid flowing to his nation. The Dollar Index was was set for its biggest weekly decline since January before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturing growth slowed in May. The New Zealand dollar weakened on dimmer prospects for exports after a Chinese manufacturing index fell.
     
     
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/dollar-advances-on-outlook-for-u-s-economy-aussie-drops-on-china-data.html
     
  19. Barbones
    http://www.weusecoins.com/
     
    Probabil cea mai sigura moneda de schimb :D
     
    Dute direct la minutul 43.
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQPSwA2Itbs
     
     
    Logic ar fi ca intiatorul proiectului asta sa fi facut din start vreo 1 2 mlioane de monede si sa astepte linistit sa se valorizeze in timp.
    Si, uite asa faci bani din nimic sau cum sa vinzi biti si totusi sa nu pacalesti pe nimeni.
     
    Alta dezbatere:
     
    http://thisweekinstartups.com/blog/bitcoin-discussion-with-gavin-andresen-and-amir-taaki-on-thi.html
  22. Barbones
    Top-performing global bond fund managers are sticking with long-term bets against the U.S. dollar even as the currency has rallied more than 4 percent since the end of last month.
     
    From Bill Gross, who runs the $241 billion Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX), to Anthony Norris, whose Wells Fargo Advantage International Bond Fund has $1.8 billion, the investors are convinced that the greenback will lose ground against a range of currencies in emerging markets and selected developed countries such as Australia and Norway.
     
    continuarea pe link
     
     
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/u-s-dollar-unloved-by-global-bond-managers-with-eyes-for-emerging-markets.html
  23. Barbones
    EU's Juncker: Final assessment on new Greece austerity measures to take place next week
    Cum coincide cu sfarsitul QE2 deja e mai complicat. Indicatiile de la JP si Goldman zic de Petrol peste 120 Dolari si deci Euro tot la deal doar ca pana atunci avem range. Probabil ca prima saptamana din Iunie va da directia odata cu cele 2 evenimente , Trichet si end QE2.
     
     
    Pana atunci va doresc un scalp placut.
  25. Barbones
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576330922938703858.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews
     
    Pe scurt :
     
    The European Central Bank is moving to exit the low interest rates and special liquidity measures it adopted during the financial crisis, and the bank will have "a basis for new decisions" at its next rate-setting meeting in June, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said.
    The euro zone's inflation rate has since risen further, to 2.8% in April from 2.7% in March, well above the ECB's target of close to but below 2%
    "It was clear that the ECB would not take the decision" on a new rate rise before receiving new forecasts for the euro-zone economy, Mr. Nowotny said. The ECB is due to publish its biannual staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area in June.
    The ECB council member said stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth of 0.8% in the euro zone "is definitely something that will enter into our discussions." Asked about further rate rises this year, Mr. Nowotny said strong growth coupled with higher inflation "could have some effect on interest-rate policy, so that further steps might follow."
    Mr. Nowotny said the ECB isn't very likely to buy more government bonds in the near future. The central bank has bought bonds of peripheral euro-zone states worth €76 billion since May last year, but hasn't made any new purchases for the past seven weeks. "My personal view is that as far as possible we should not use [bond-buying] again," Mr. Nowotny said.
    Nu vad cum din cele de mai sus s-ar putea crea un trend de sell cel putin pana in Iunie.
    Raman Long ca perspectiva de saptamana viitoare dupa deznodamantul negocierilor privind Grecia.
×
×
  • Creează nouă...

Informații Importante

Am plasat cookie-uri pe dispozitivul tău pentru a îmbunătății navigarea pe acest site. Poți modifica setările cookie, altfel considerăm că ești de acord să continui.

  Accept