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Barbones

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Intrări Blog postat de Barbones

  1. Barbones
    — U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday, dragged lower by cyclical stocks as investors grew more conservative about the Federal Reserve’s attempts to stimulate the economy.
    Adica ce am zis mai devreme, Buy Dolari pe Majore.
     
    Europe and other US trading partners are trying to shame the FOMC into not announcing another large, market-distorting QE at there meeting a week from today. Today's report that US New Home Sales rebounded 6.6% is seen by most as not likely to keep the Fed from announcing some moderate level of QE2 next week. Durable Goods also rebounded, but were distorted by Aircraft orders. The chatter on the Street these days is that the Fed will take a much more cautious QE approach this time around, leaving itself maximum leeway to adjust the policy as new information is acquired. Reuters
  3. Barbones

    G20 afterhours

    De Barbones,

    Following the meeting of G20 finance ministers, the risk of war exchange you think spread?
    Group determination was indeed to avoid a war exchange. The Ministers discussed this issue specifically.. We are committed not to resort to policies of competitive devaluations. But we also agreed we would set broader objectives in terms of our current account balances, without stigmatizing a particular country. All surplus countries such as deficit countries on commercial terms, must be alert to changes in their trade. While we have not established numerical goals desired by the U.S. administration. Because the situation of the G20 countries is different. In particular, countries with high commodity exporters have argued that the trade balance was different in nature. In the end, we agreed to a "path of peace," but we do not yet have tools at our disposal. This presages the work of the French presidency of the G20 next year. These works represent one of the objectives of President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is working to develop a new international monetary system.
     
    Christine Lagarde is the current Minister of Economic Affairs, Industry and Employment of France
     
    Citat din http://www.lesechos.fr/
     
     
     
  5. Barbones
    Azi, 18 Oct, ora 3 pm ora Ro.
    City anunta ca e de bine si tot asa mai departe pe toata sesiunea NY.
    Euro si Aud au schimbat sentimentul chiar atunci. La 3.
    De la sell ul de pe China pana la 3 totul arata asa cum trebuia sa fie dar.... NY a mers pe fundament.
    Pana vineri, prima zi G20, Scalp the News si sa nu uitam de QE2!!! care oricum ar fi, ESTE!!!
  6. Barbones
    Tot vineri (acum o saptamana)s-a petrecut un alt eveniment, de data aceasta având conotaţii istorice. Aflat în vizită în Turcia, premierul chinez Wen Jiabao a anunţat, împreună cu premierul turc Recep Erdogan, eliminarea dolarului din contractele bilaterale dintre cele două ţări. Aşa se face că, începând cu data amintitei vizite, valutele utilizate în schimburile dintre cele două ţări vor fi lira şi yuan-ul. Este primul contract de acest tip care practic aruncă în derizoriu moneda americană. Schimburile comerciale dintre China şi Turcia au în prezent o valoare de peste 15 miliarde de dolari, iar cei doi oficiali îşi propun triplarea acestora în următorii cinci ani.
     
    Continuarea pe http://trenduri.blogspot.com/2010/10/noua-conflagratie.html
  7. Barbones
    Getihner a amanat "sentinta" catre China ca vezi doamne doar ea manipuleaza moneda,
     
    Ben a dezamagit ca n-a zis cu cat si cum va arunca dolari din elicopter,
     
    iar ECB striga ca Volatilitatea nu buna.
     
     
    Toate astea adunate si mai ales faptul ca a fost Vineri a dus la marcarea profiturilor.
     
    Mi-am c am impleticit ordinele la 1.4120 dar in final am scos-o la capat.
    Logic ca si vedeam 1.4250 cum imi marcheaza TP ul dar ... a fost Vineri
     
     
    Cum ceea ce nu urca pana la urma coboara, Euro are mari sanse saptamana viitoare sa-si corecteze putin trendul, nu mult sau nu mult timp dar ziua ce tocmai s-a incheiat a facut Out Side Bar pentru Sell.
     
     
    Pana pe 3 Noiembrie, Pisica poate sa sara in toate directiile.
    Dupa 3, numai Ben stie.
     
     
    Pana atunci Sezonul anunturilor Q3 incepe chiar de luni asa ca Scalp the News e la putere.
    Cu siguranta vom mai vedea 1.4050 pe chart asa cum si 1.3750 este in carti.
  9. Barbones
    TOKYO (MNI) – Yen-selling interventions conducted by the Group of
    Seven industrialized nations is estimated to have totaled Y2 trillion to
    Y2.5 trillion, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Sunday.
     
    The newspaper said that the European Central Bank, Bank of England
    and the Federal Reserve conducted yen-selling interventions in their
    markets after the Tokyo market closed on Friday.
     
    This is the first concerted G-7 forex action since September 2000,
    when the euro came under heavy selling as capital flowed into the U.S.
    stock market at the peak of the IT bubble.
     
    The newspaper also noted that the bulk of the yen-selling
    interventions was done by Japanese authorities.
     
    Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Friday, “Following
    the G-7 agreement, the government and Bank of Japan will implement
    intervention in the foreign exchange market from 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).”
     
     
     
     
    By Market News International
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
  11. Barbones
    Un tip care a papat pe paine ce s-a intamplat in 33', omul anului 2009 conform Time, cel care "tipareste" sperante si le arunca peste noi cu elicopterul, cel care a "salvat" AIG, maine va avea probabil cel mai important discurs al carierei sale.
    Daca "asset purchases" si "quantitative easing" vor fi temele centrale atunci sperantele mele se vor materializa, sperante care se indreapta catre o iesire din recesiune fara "al doilea picior", unde trendul revenirii comoditatilor va fi anevoios dar long, unde dolarul va pierde incet teren si lumea va rasufla usurata.
    Nu vreau sa vad altceva.
  12. Barbones
    Se spune ca cel de al 2 lea picior al recesiunii ar trebui sa inceapa sa se formeze saptamana asta, tehnic vorbind, fundamental vorbind oricand se poate nu numai acum iar statistic, August si Septembrie sunt in favoarea dolarului ceea ce ar fi in concordanta cu primele doua.
     
    Primele semne ca totusi nu se va intampla ca-n 33' sunt mediocre, Euro a reusit sa reziste caderii, deocamdata, sub 2750 si a atacat 2900, Lira in schimb fundamental nu o duce prea bine zilele asta si din previziuni pe ce a mai ramas din saptamana nici atat. AUD si CAD au capatat un suflu nou pe fundament american cu Dow si SP pe noi varfuri in sus dar totusi sub asteptari iar Francul face ce stie adica rezista ... si rezista.... si rezista.
     
    Asa ca, tot ce trebuie sa vedem saptamana asta sau macar pe inceputul lui Septembrie este un nou val de cadere a dolarului. Astfel statistica, fundamentul si tehnicul sa nu mai lucreze in favoarea crizei iar paternul Celei de a Doua Mari Crize sa fie invers Primei.
     
    La Euro raman inca cu SL ul la 2750 (mental ca nu ma buy) iar pe final de saptamana daca americanii fac contabilitatea sa dea bine il mut la 2800 pentru ca euro ar trebui sa treca de 2900 macar ca testare.
  13. Barbones
    Deci sa sarbatorim 2 ani de "Criza".
     
    De care, nu stiu, financiara? economica? astrala?, poate Mayasii stiau de care dar pacat ca nu au dat o stire pe Reuters sa fie mai clar.
     
    Pe 8 Septembrie 2008 Lehman si-a dat obstescul sfarsit lucru care ne-a bagat pe toti in rahat... cu apa rece. AIG si restul au scapat dar startul era dat. Ce mai conta ca Congresul a aprobat 700 de meleoane de dolari, plan de salvare, traderii cu experienta stiau ce urmeaza. SELL OFF. of of.of....
     
    Azi, 6 Septembrie 2010, dupa 2 ani de castigat experienta, ne pregatim de trade pentru saptamana ce vine si avem in minte ca:
     
    Trichet ne-a incantat la Conferinta ECB - nu la Bucuresti -. 80% din ce a spus referitor la zona Euro a fost pozitiv,
    GDP cu revizie Up si crestere moderata iar Somajul in SUA in scadere.
     
    Din ceea ce vine, Miercuri,
    Productia Industriala a Germaniei este previzionata tot in crestere, doar constructia caselor in SUA este negativ previzionata.
     
    Deci, pe 8 Septembire 2010, dimineata avem sanse sa incepem campania de toamna in Buy.
    Majorele la deal, dolarul la vale si bula de aur sa se desumfle daca nu sa se sparga.
  15. Barbones

    FED/QE2

    De Barbones,

    Acum, ca e mai clar ca ce urmeaza e neclar, QE2 adica Quantitative Easing partea a doua se pare ca are sanse mari sa intre in piata saptamana viitoare .
    Marti la FOMC aflam cat si cum, cand si mai ales daca.
     
    Scopul este prevenirea deflatiei in toata lumea care ar face cresterea economica sa fie cu pasi prea mici iar ca QE2 sa fie eficient ar trebui sa avem si o reactie mai agresiva in piata de comoditati. Deocamadata piata a reactionat deja la zonul aparitiei QE2 iar reactiile pe SP, DOW, Dolar Index sau AUD deja arata directia.
     
    Peste toate, In SUA avem in curand alegeri. Obama simte presiunea si logica mea spune ca daca nu va avea un dolar slab pentru semestrele 3 si 4 nu prea mai are sanse sa opreasca caderea Democratilor. Pe zi ce trece mi se pare ca Democratii sunt defapt partidul de "sacrificiu" unde Republicanii fac "prostii" si democratii "spala rusinea".
     
    La Euro pe mantli arata ca pinul functioneaza iar pe uicli se pare ca terminam peste 38fib masurat pe cadearea din decembrie, miscare care ma duce cu gandul la 50fib.
     
    AUD respecta fundamentul si il astept la dublu top all time high.
     
    1.35 in Octombrie sau targetul anului 1.38?
     
    Ben, sa traiesti ca te-ai tinut de cuvant.
    Astept elicopterul.
  17. Barbones
    Non-farm payrolls fall 54,000; unemployment rate edges up to 5.6%; private sector adds 67,000 jobs; large upward revisions to prior months. Better than expected Japan’s Ozawa: Japan can use strong Yen to make overseas resource investments ISM non-manufacturing PMI falls to 51.5 in August from 54.3 in July Fed’s Lockhart: No appetite at Fed to monetize debt S&P 500 rises 1.3%, closes at 1105 US 10-year note yield rises to 2.71%, up 8.5 bp from Thursday. Much less dire than feared US employment figures set off a scramble to cover shorts in “risky” assets and to dump safe-havens. USD/JPY soared from 84.40 to 85.23 in a matter of minutes. The gains did not last particularly long as reports immediately began to circulate that a US hedge fund was a seller of upwards of $750 mln through a US bank in London. Once that talk made the rounds, intraday specs were quick to book profits.
     
    Much weaker than expected ISM service-sector data pulled the rug out from under USD/JPY and sent prices down even lower than where they sat ahead of the employment report. We fell as low as 84.23 before stabilizing. The rest of the session saw tight range trading below the 84.50 level despite a solid rise in US yields.
     
    AUD/USD was a clear winner today, rising on the employment report and holding gains even though the ISM data was very disappointing. A 0.9150 barrier was taken out along the way as we rallied as high as 0.9175 and end the day in the high 0.9160s. A gap was opened up on the intraday charts from 0.9110 through 0.9138. That will give traders something to shoot for Monday morning in Asia.
     
    USD/CAD was the other big winner. Ozawa’s comments on Japan buying resources helped fuel the CAD rally as some dealers expect a Japanese company could jump into the bidding for Potash Corp. We slid to the 1.0390 area from 1.0545 ahead of the numbers.
     
    EUR/USD was a bit of laggard, rising proportionately a bit less early on than some of the other currencies as soaring US rates gave prompted some modest dollar strengthen but, at the end of the day, we managed to add to the post-data highs around 1.2875. We rose close to a 1.2900 barrier, reaching 1.2898 on EBS. The EUR/USD charts have taken on a bullish bias after triggering an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
     
    As risk aversion eased, so did the franc. We end the day at 1.3110 in EUR/CHF from 1.3050. Highs were at 1.3164.
     
    www.forexlive.com
     
     
     
  18. Barbones
    Somaj negativ, sub asteptari dar negativ! sunt sigur ca daca era cel mai prost numar tot buy dadeam
    Mr. Bernanke a stat rezemat de spatarul fotoliului si si-a fumat linistit trabucul pentru ca nu a mai este nevoie de quantitative easing.
    Pentru toamna se pregateste trendul de sell Dolari.
    Back in business and Lord help us!
  19. Barbones
    Aseara Fed s-a mai apropiat cu un pas de QE2 zicand ca daca inflatia nu e pe cararea buna vor avea ei grija sa nu se piarda prin padure. Reactia a fost deloc surprinzatoare, Euro a creat new high peste sma si ema 200 on daily iar AUD a fost vedeta emisiunii. Aurul nu stiu ce cauta acolo dar ma interesez.
     
    Azi, la Minuta BoE
    "On balance, most members thought that the current level of Bank Rate and stock of asset
    purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remained appropriate to balance the risks
    to the inflation outlook in the medium term. But both key risks were substantial, and these members
    stood ready to respond in either direction as the balance of risks evolved. For some of those members,
    the probability that further action would become necessary to stimulate the economy and keep inflation
    on track to hit the target in the medium term had increased. "
     
    .Deci si Lira ar avea drum la munte ca si majorele in general. Sigur ca, acum as vrea totusi sa astept si NFP ul pe Octombrie si mai ales rezultatele Q3 pe SUA ca sa dau buy toata toamna linistit dar si asa, tonul e dat cat de cat si cu picul de ajutor dat de "new homes" in SUA.
     
    Tot somajul ramane problema si din Q&A cu Obama de la CNBC de alataieri imi ramane o propozitie in minte care spune mult despre ceea ce gandesc si eu printre milioanele care inca il mai simpatizeaza :
     
    "Is this my new reality?"
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQ8sxTsllk&feature=related
  20. Barbones
    China spune ca nu vrea sa se lupte cu FED.
    FED zice ca pot fi si 6 mii de miliarde in noul QE2. Obama tre sa castige, nu?
    Azi, FOMC zice fara echivoc ca restul lumii nu conteaza.
    QE2 .CLAR.
    Ce a zis FED a dus la New 5 month High pe SP. Sa mai zici ca Ben nu are elicoptere.
     
    Ce contrazice tot ce e mai sus este sentimentul pietei care spune ca stirea este deja PRICED IN..
    Nimic nou sub soare.
     
     
    3 Noiembrie 2010. Pun pending de acum. In ce directie?
    Asta in episodul urmator.
  21. Barbones

    May 6 Flash Crash

    De Barbones,

    The extreme price fluctuations of May 6 Flash Crash trading chaos greatly affected everyone from individual investors to corporations that need to raise capital.
     
    In response, the CFTC-SEC Joint Advisory Committee on Emerging Regulatory Issues issued a detailed report to the SEC and CFTC describing what happened on May 6 and making recommendations on reforms for preventing flash crash-like market disruptions.
     
    Based on the investigations described in the report, the NYSE experienced record quotation traffic and significant delays in the dissemination of data on May 6. For more than five minutes starting at 2:44 p.m. in New York, its quotes in 1,665 securities were delayed by 5 to 20 seconds or more. Quotations in the same securities disseminated through its private feeds had an average delay of .008 second. As the result, 20-minute rout erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
     
    The report stated that deliberate attempts by traders to overwhelm exchanges with orders played no role in the May 6 crash. The majority of activity that occurred on May 6 wasn’t quote stuffing, it was quote withdrawals. A report further stated that the plunge was triggered by the sale of futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that set off a chain of selling that bled into stocks and exchange-traded funds.
     
    While the study said selling was worsened by automated firms trading with one another, the report placed no emphasis on the practice that has come to be known as quote stuffing, in which investors allegedly seek an advantage by delaying data feeds.
     
    According to the report, no evidence was found that delays led to price declines since most high-frequency firms — the providers of the bulk of liquidity in the market — use private data feeds from exchanges instead of publicly available information. Regulators said the delays may have exacerbated concern about the accuracy of prices, encouraging liquidity providers to reduce their trading.
     
    However, the evidence doesn’t support claims that delays triggered or otherwise caused the extreme volatility in security prices observed that day. The report further stated that NYSE was in the process of upgrading data systems on May 6. Less convincing are allegations about people intentionally trying to gum up the works without any evidence.
     
    Some of the recommendations made in the report include the possibility of imposing price and volume limits for brokered trades. Require executing brokers to adopt certain trading practices when executing a large order by use of an algorithm, such as price or volume limits. Require executing brokers to have an obligation to monitor and make non-disruptive trading judgments.
     
    Also, require executing brokers have similar limitations as exchanges, which is to have the maximum order-size limitations and price banding that prevent entry into the trading engine of an order that exceeds a predefined maximum quantity or a price difference from the current market.
     
    Other options the panel considered are increasing visibility into the full order book and potential revisions to market pauses, either for single exchanges, such as stop loss functionality logic, or for cross-market circuit breakers.
     
    Some experts say that although, it is not intentional, it is a big accidental problem that no one seems to be learning from or doing anything about. The quoting behavior has stopped and started again on different exchanges since May 6 and also occurred before then.
     
    Some critics of U.S. market structure have urged exchanges to adopt a fee for quote cancellations that exceed a certain rate and said bids and offers should remain available to investors for a minimum amount of time. Such initiatives may curtail the ability of firms to submit and cancel orders rapidly.
     
     
     
     
    forexlive.com
     
     
     
  22. Barbones
    Dolarul a pierdut 5% intr-o luna in fata celorlate majore.
    Pe la banca centrala a Australiei se zice ca AUD e bun la paritate.
    ECB urla ca 1.40 pentru Euro nu e bun
    Japonia arunca zeci de miliarde oficial de ceva vreme sa slabeasca JEN ul
    iar de Franc si CAD nu mai zic nimic.
     
    Intalnirea din week end ul asta intre greii lumii la Banca Mondiala nu a adus la finalul ei nimic concret motiv de gap pe startul saptamanii, doar s-a amanat o rezolutie la o urmatoare intalnire, asta ce a transpirat prin presa caci ce s-a discutat cu adevarat nu prea se stie.
     
    Toate astea adunate, cu China care isi arata coltii de ceva vreme arata de parca suntem martorii celei mai tensionate perioade de dupa startul recesiunii din 2007.
     
    Obama trebuie sa scoata camasa Democratilor foarte repede, altfel inceputul finalului pentru ei incepe in cateva saptamani odata cu primele alegeri si se pare ca singura optiune este QE2 lucru care a slabit deja dolarul dar nu stim daca acum este sau nu in pret zvonul si ar urma ca odata cu aparitia lui oficiala, pe 3 Nov sa inceapa marcarea profiturilor, greu de zis.
    Prima data QE1 a fost in Dec 2008 si se vede pe charturi ce a produs.
     
    Razboiul a inceput, primele negocieri nu sunt date publicitatii.
    O saptamana grea pentru traderi daca nu vom avea o reactie clara.
     
    Toate majorele arata tehnic reversal si totusi.......
  24. Barbones

    QE2/ cu cat nu daca

    De Barbones,

    Miscarea la Euro "ghicita" inca din August nu ne-a luat prin surprindere . Problema azi este cat de long va fi trendul si cat de scurta va fi retragerea.
    1.42 este un target gasit de alti pe care-i cred si 1.50 previzionat de alte persoane.
     
    Eu zic ca pe 3 Noiembrie vom avea ceva miscare,
    Cu pending sau nu, tot e ceva de luat. Nu stiu daca la fel de puternic ca in Dec 2008 dar miscarea se aseamana.
     
    Cine a cautat in fundament miscarea pe Euro si Aud a fost "long", cine cauta varfuri tehnice, deci a dat sell pe toata urcarea asta, a avut ceva probleme.
     
    Si asta este deabea inceputul.
  25. Barbones
    Ceea ce a fost de demonstrat s a demostrat si ieri si azi cand toate cele rele ce se auzeau in piata nu aveau efect impotriva Euro sau AUD. Dolarul a pierdut teren asa cum ma asteptam inca din August. Singura solutie buna este pentru toata lumea pe sfarsitul de an un dolar slab. Am scris asta inca de la primele posturi.
     
    Q3 in acest caz va avea mari sanse sa arate bine si sigur ca va impinge dolarul si mai jos. 1.38 pentru Euro este un target realist chiar daca saptamana viitoare se va corecta ceea ce este si de asteptat. Ultima saptamana din luna.
     
    Din Octombrie, dupa NFP ma astept sa reluam trendul de buy pe Euro Lira AUD. Cel din urma cu mari sanse sa depaseasca paritatea.
     
    Ben se tine de cuvant, Elicoterele in Aer!!!!
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