Offtopic Profesionist

[dani2kn]

@barbones, de unde ai tras aceasta concluzie? Eu ma uit acum pe graficul USD/RON asta inseamna ca USD-ul e considerat moneda cu risc iar RON-ul de siguranta ? Sa nu mai vorbim de USD vs exotice (CZK, DKK, NOK... etc.)

 

Sell-ul este frica si buy-ul este speranta, corect dar asta e valabil in stock/commodities market si nu in forex. Daca, din diferite motive, exista o cerere de USD pe piata asta nu inseamna ca lumea vinde EURO de frica. Nu zic ca nu exista frica si speranta in forex dar nu e aceasi ca si in cazul stock/commodities.

[dirzuandreiovidiu]

Poate va lamuresc episoadele din filmul Floored cum sta treaba.

 

http://www.babelgum.com/channels/180638/featured/play

 

Vizionare placuta.

[Barbones]

@dani Nu pot sa spun decat ca forexul privit pur tehnic este mai usor de privit, dar daca vrei in schimb sa afli de ce se misca pretul in anumite momente si de ce anumite valute au o importanta diferita este nevoie de putin studiu, nu mult.

 

RON nu este o valuta de siguranta, este o valuta (privita din perspectiva speculatorului) ca moneda de risc . Francul este azi considerata printre cele mai sigure. Cei care au cu ce si stiu sa profite de pe urma tendintelor economice inclusiv din previziunea viitoarelor diferente de curs, in perioada asta pariaza pentru profit pe valutele tarilor cu crestere economica. In momentul in care economiile vor incepe sa scartaie isi vor transfera banii pe acele monede asa zis Safe Heaven.

Euro, Leul sau Leva nu sunt Safe Heaven. Dolarul inca mai este, Francul, Jen ul iar AUD ul - care in afara de o dobanda mare, are si o economie bazata in mare masura pe export de materii prime ce azi sunt primele cotate la cumparare intr-un raport general, valute, actiuni sau materii prime si NZD ul care are proximativ aceleasi calitati ca si AUD ul .

 

Daca vrei sa sti mai multe nu pot decat sa ma bucur ca vrei sa inveti.

 

 

Apropo de modul de scriere al perechilor .

 

Am intalnit oameni cu vechime in tranzactionare care nu stiau sa citeasca o pereche pentru ca, pentru ei conta desenul de pe chart si mai putin ce tranzactioneaza,

Un exemplu clar l-am avut atunci cand vorbeam de perechea USD/CAD. Cineva spunea ca perechea va cadea caci economia Canadei scartaie ceea ce era un non sens. Cad ul se intarea iar pe chart arata ca slabire pentru ca acea persoana nu stia ca valutele se citesc asa cum sunt scrise - prima vs a doua.

Cand vinzi o pereche defapt vinzi prima valuta pentru a o cumpara pe a doua. Actiunea de a vinde CAD se face prin a cumpara USD contra vanzare CAD deci actiune in piata BUY - USD/CAD ca sa vinzi CAD.

Editat Iulie 27, 2011 de Barbones

[dani2kn]

@barbones, multumesc pt. lectii totusi... zi-mi si mie de unde ai scos chestia asta cum ca sa numeste EUR/USD pt. ca EUR e de risc iar USD e safe haven. De 3 ani de cand m-am apucat de studiat 4x n-am intalnit acest lucru si chiar sunt curios si sincer nu pot sa te cred pe tine pe cuvant ci am nevoie de o sursa mai sigura (no offence).

 

Daca reusesti sa faci trimitere la vreun material pe care sa-l pot si eu citi unde exiplica ratiunea pe baza carora sunt numite perechile iti sunt recunoscator.

 

Cand vinzi o pereche defapt vinzi prima valuta pentru a o cumpara pe a doua. Actiunea de a vinde CAD se face prin a cumpara USD contra vanzare CAD deci actiune in piata BUY - USD/CAD ca sa vinzi CAD.

Asta-i tare , as avea tendinta sa cred ca faci misto de mine cand imi predai o lectie asa de elementara dar sa stii ca ti-a luat-o inainte prima mea platforma de tranzactionare unde imi arata poztiile spre exemplu short EUR, long USD si vice versa (in functie de pozitia luata)

 

Oricum e bine ca stii acest lucru si iti va fi mai usor sa-ti dai seama de ce sell-off-ul pe valute nu echivaleaza cu cel din stock market. Daca vinzi rosii in piata si dintr-o data creste volumul vanzarilor asta nu inseamna ca lumea vrea sa scape de RON cumparandu-ti tie rosiile sau daca aude lumea de e.coli si nu mai cumpara castraveti asta nu inseamna ca vor sa-si mute capitalul in RON intrand Short pe castraveti

[Barbones]

Paralelele tale cu legume nu prea le inteleg, dar ... ma rog, piata forex e un pic mai complexa, chiar mai complexa decat cea de actiuni. Nu-ti recomand sa faci forex la piata caci s-ar putea sa ramai cu rosii stricate in final.

 

Lasand gluma la o parte, da si tu sarci pe goagal la - safe haven currencies .

Nu se numeste Euro/USD pentru ca prima e risc si a doua e altfel, tot pe google ai sa gasesti pe wiki explicatii complete si modul cum au fost denumite si cand.

Faptul ca esti de 4 ani in domeniu si nu ai aflat pana acum ce am spus mai sus nu prea e bine, dar e bine ca te intereseaza.

 

Cred ca e mai avantajos, sau mai profitabil sa gandesti ca un pro sau ca Big Boys. Eu caut constant sa aflu cum gandesc cei ce misca piata. Chartul tau si al meu, paternurile de tot felul sa sti ca le vad toti din piata, mai greu este sa sti daca acel patern care l-ai folosit pana acum ca sa faci profit va merge si de data asta pentru ca "baietii" se uita la ele dar daca ceva exceptional se intampla acel patern se sterge cu buretele iar interesul economic primeaza.

Cand am zis de CAD am dat un exemplu ce se intalneste des in randul traderilor retail, nu spun ca tu nu stiai.

 

PS. uite un articol care te mai lamureste si ma face mai credibil .

 

Safe Haven Currencies

By Sienna Jane Miller

 

What is a safe haven currency?

 

A safe haven currency is a currency that is considered to be safe during geopolitical and economic turmoil. Consequently, when events like natural disasters, war and stock market crashes occur, currency traders invest in safe havens, causing the value of the safe haven currency to rise and the value of currencies paired with it to fall, even though the events may not have had an obvious impact on the currency in question.

 

What makes a safe haven currency?

 

Due to the popularity of the carry trade, interest rate differentials have often been associated with safe-haven status. However, this trend isn't consistent across the market, as it only seems to be a factor when trading the currencies of advanced countries as opposed to emerging countries. This implies that the liquidity of the currency being traded is a driver of safe-haven status, as major currency pairs have greater liquidity than exotic currency pairs.

 

Also, when global risk aversion is high, liquidity in some markets may dry up, causing traders to invest in highly liquid currencies. In turn, this gives the most liquid currencies an extra boost.

 

For a country to be considered safe and low risk, it should be isolated from global events in case there is a crisis, and it should have good fundamentals, like economic management and strong industry. In theory, the currencies of such countries could be seen as safe haven currencies.

 

In practice, it is increasingly difficult to achieve isolation in an increasingly globalised world. So factors like the size of a country's stock market, which indicates its financial development and market size, now seem to outweigh the external vulnerability associated with its net foreign asset position.

 

Which currencies are considered to be safe havens?

 

The USD, CHF and JPY are all referred to as safe haven currencies. However, due to the carry trade the fact that the Japanese Yen rises in times of global turmoil is more likely to be a reversal of investors' carry trades (which usually go long on a currency with a high interest rate against currencies with low interest rates, like the yen) rather than an intentional investment in the currency.

 

The CHF is considered to be a safe-haven currency for a number of reasons:

 

1. Liquidity - the Swiss Franc is a very liquid currency and is paired with the USD

 

2. Switzerland has a highly competitive business environment, along with low corporate tax, a transparent economy and a history of good economic management.

 

3. Switzerland is traditionally neutral, so it is viewed as less likely to be affected by political turmoil in Europe than the euro.

 

4. The Swiss National Bank keeps a large part of its reserves in gold, causing the CHF to appreciate with the price of gold.

 

Although the CHF briefly fell from grace in the global financial crisis due to its exposure to the banking sector, it has since regained its footing as a safe haven currency, and has attracted investors as several members of the eurozone struggle.

 

Why is the USD a safe haven currency?

 

If we look at the factors that contribute to a currency being a safe haven, the US and the dollar don't measure up. The US is not isolated from global events, having major trading partners across North and Central America, Asia and Europe. The US has not fully recovered from the financial crisis, with unemployment still around 10% and growth having slowed again for the three quarters to June 2011.

 

So why aren't currencies like the AUD and CAD - both from countries that didn't suffer a banking crisis or a recession, and both of which have strong economies and lower unemployment rates than the US - considered to be safe haven currencies?

 

The AUD, CAD and NZD are all commodity currencies, meaning that, as commodity exports contribute a large about to their GDP, they usually benefit from strong commodity prices. Strong commodity prices are encouraged by a global economy, meaning that when the global economy might be in danger, these currencies fall in value as investors turn to safe havens.

 

Which brings us back to the question - why is the USD a safe haven currency?

 

The main reasons for this are the size of the US economy, including the widespread use of the USD globally, the belief in the USD as a safe-haven currency, and the liquidity of the USD.

 

The majority of fx trades involve the US dollar - the major currency pairs are all paired with the USD, and formulas to figure out exchange rates between crosses (currency pairs that don't contain the USD) use the USD exchange rate. As liquidity is how short-term currency traders make their profits, there are constantly many long and short trades taking place on the USD. In a risk adverse environment, we have already said that liquidity in some markets dries up. This causes more traders to invest in the most liquid currencies, of which the USD is at the top of the heap.

 

As the USD has been considered to be the world's top safe-haven currency for years, there is a prevailing sentiment in the market that the USD is safe, regardless of what the current economic data might show. This is one of the reasons why the USD strengthened in 2008 despite the financial crisis - it was still seen to be safer than other markets.

 

The main reason that the USD is considered to be a safe haven currency is that the USD is "too big to fail". Currently there are more US dollars in circulation around the world than any other currency, with two-thirds of the rest of the world's foreign reserves denominated in US dollars. If the USD falls by too much, it will have ramifications across global markets. The dominance of the USD, and the dominance of the US in world trade, means that other central banks won't allow the dollar to fail.

 

Check out my blog Talking Forex - a beginner's guide to forex to learn more about safe haven currencies. Also, the site of my preferred forexprovider has a lot of good information on forex and forex trading, including examples and FAQs.

 

I am not a financial adviser, and the information in this blog is just intended to inform and not advise. Please remember that forex is a leveraged product, so it's possible to lose more than your original investment. Forex trading might not suit everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved with this type of trading.

 

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Sienna_Jane_Miller

 

 

si direct de pe Wiki

http://en.wikipedia....i/Hard_currency

[Barbones]

alta exemplu

 

Emerging Market Currencies Brace for Correction

“It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,” begins Charles Dickens’ The Tale of Two Cities. In 2011, the winter of despair was followed by the spring of uncertainty. Due to the earthquake/tsunami in Japan, the continued tribulations of Greece, rising commodity prices, and growing concern over the global economic recovery, volatility in the forex markets has risen, and investors are unclear as to how to proceed. For now at least, they are responding by dumping emerging market currencies.

 

http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Emerging-Market-Currencies-vs-[acronym="Dolar american' class='bbc ipSeoAcronym"]USD[/acronym]-2011.jpg

As you can see from the chart above (which shows a cross-section of emerging market forex), most currencies peaked in the beginning of May and have since sold-off significantly. If not for the rally that started off the year, all emerging market currencies would probably be down for the year-to-date, and in fact many of them are anyway. Still, the returns for even the top performers are much less spectacular than in 2009 and 2010. Similarly, the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index is down 3.5% in the YTD, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI+) has risen 4.5% (which is reflects declining growth forecasts as much as perceptions of increasing creditworthiness).

There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment. First of all, risk appetite is waning. Over the last couple months, every flareup in the eurozone debt crisis coincided with a sell-off in emerging markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Central and eastern European currencies that are seen as being most vulnerable to financial turmoil in the euro zone have underperformed.” Economies further afield, such as Turkey and Russia, have also experienced weakness in their respective currencies. Some analysts believe that because emerging economies are generally more fiscally sound than their fundamental counterparts, that they are inherently less risky. Unfortunately, while this proposition makes theoretical sense, you can be assured that a default by a member of the eurozone will trigger a mass exodus into safe havens – NOT into emerging markets.

 

http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/World-Inflation-Chart-2011.jpg

While emerging market Asia and South America is somewhat insulated from eurozone fiscal problems. On the other hand, they remain vulnerable to an economic slowdown in China and to rising inflation. Emerging market central banks have avoided making significant interest rate hikes (hence, rising bond prices) – for fear of inviting further capital inflow and stoking currency appreciation – and the result has been rising price inflation. You can see from the chart above that the darkest areas (symbolizing higher inflation) are all located in emerging economic regions. While high inflation is not inherently problematic, it is not difficult to conceive of a downward spiral into hyperinflation. Again, a sudden bout of monetary instability would send investors rushing to the exits.

http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/[acronym="Piata valutara internationala (Foreign Exchange)' class='bbc ipSeoAcronym"]Forex[/acronym]-Volume-Summer-Slowdown.jpg

While most analysts (myself included) remain bullish on emerging markets over the long-term, many are laying off in the short-term. “RBC emerging market strategistNick Chamie says his team has recommended ‘defensive posturing’ to clients since May 5 and isn’t recommending new bullish emerging currency bets right now….HSBC said Thursday that it isn’t recommending outright short positions on emerging market currencies to clients but suggested a more ‘cautious’ and selective approach in making currency bets.” This phenomenon will be exacerbated by the fact that market activity typically slows down in the summer chart above courtesy of Forex Magnates) as traders go on vacation. With less liquidity and an inability to constantly monitor one’s portfolio, traders will be loathe to take on risky positions.

http://images.socialtwist.com/2009021910542/button.png

[Stefan]

@Barbones, mai bine pune linkuri catre articole. Cu copy/paste ia tot felul de balarii.

[Cityzen]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1U99CYEdEQ

[dani2kn]

Nu se numeste Euro/USD pentru ca prima e risc si a doua e altfel, tot pe google ai sa gasesti pe wiki explicatii complete si modul cum au fost denumite si cand.

 

@barbones... scuza-mi prostia si mai zi-mi odata unde ai gasit tu ca EUR/USD este asa si nu este USD/EUR si da-mi te rog un link sau o indicatie. Asta ma intereseaza..... logica denumirii cotatiilor cum ar fi XAU/USD, USD/RON etc. si nu balarii despre safe haven.

 

Sau vrei sa spui ca ai tras concluzia din burta ta si ai inceput sa o faci bluf ca sa incerci sa acoperi acest lucru?

 

Si scuza-mi dezinteresul fata de posturile tale despre safe haven si faptul ca nu vreau sa aud de ele pt. ca STIU CE INSEAMNA SAFE HAVEN si am citit si m-am interesat despre asta cu mult inainte sa-mi postezi tu pe forum... ceea ce mi-a scapat este logica denumirii cotatiilor, si daca acest lucru face pt. tine sa nu sune prea bine.... ok, ma bucur si recunosc ca sunt un prost fata de tine care esti un expert in ale forexului si as aprecia daca mi-ai oferi informatii corecte.

 

Deci, ceea ce vreau sa ma ajuti este sa ma directionezi spre o "maculatura" in care sa-mi explice negru pe alb de ce EUR/USD este asa si nu este USD/EUR si nu despre safe haven sau alte subiecte. Daca vrei sa ma ajuti iti multumesc foarte mult daca ma trimiti cu "cauta pe google" am inteles tot.

 

Merci!

 

P.S. Nu este vorba dintr-o paralela cu legumele ci e vorba de o PIATA DE LEGUME SI FRUCTE iar tot tu ai spus ca toate pietele se comporta la fel si anume se cumpara speranta si se vinde frica iar eu am incercat sa-ti dau un exemplu de piata unde sunt evidentiate alte ratiuni care stau la baza cumpararii sau a vanzarii iar acest lucru a fost explicat mult mai bine pe alt topic.

 

Si ca sa-ti raspund cu aceasi moneda:

 

Paralelele tale cu legume nu prea le inteleg, dar ... ma rog, piata forex e un pic mai complexa, chiar mai complexa decat cea de actiuni. Nu-ti recomand sa faci forex la piata caci s-ar putea sa ramai cu rosii stricate in final.

Acest lucru ma face pe mine sa am foarte mari dubii asupra capacitatii tale de a intelege pietele. (no offence)

 

Si ca sa-ti aduc aminte de unde a pornit discutia:

 

Sell ul pe orice piata, actiuni sau forex este tot Sell. Euro/USD nu degeaba e scris asa si nu invers. Vorbim de o moneda cu risc vs una de siguranta. Orice contine risc se va vinde rapid in caz de ceva, pe o moneda de siguranta.

Ceea ce as putea eu sa continui sa explic contine multa informatie si-mi va lua timp. Pe scurt, sell ul este frica si buy ul e speranta.

Editat August 1, 2011 de dani2kn

[Barbones]

Google e rege. Si eu tot pe google am invatat. Succes